Episode Transcript
Welcome to the NFL Week 18 Betting Market Outlook.
The regular season grand finale. Happy New Year, Kings. I'm back from Europe. Spent a week in London, a week in Paris. Feeling refreshed. How are your holidays, Judah?
My holidays were pretty great. A little bit sick last week, but that's okay.
If you joined us on Sunday, I'm sure you heard the remnants of whatever respiratory thing I had, but I'm excited to be back. And we should have a fun week of football ahead.
I'm dealing with my own respiratory thing, if you can't tell.
But yeah. So now it's the 2020 part three. We're now as close to 2050 as we are to 1996. S and p 500 down 20% in 2022 tech heavy Nasdaq 100 down 33% long duration US treasuries down. Another 30% is interest rates just ripped higher. The Fed doing its best to slow the economy, drive down inflation, crypto, having Lehman moments every other month. There was nowhere to hide your money in 2022. But a well diversified portfolio may have just been the trick. If you bet on Bengals, giants, lions top three ATS teams this year going 12 and three, 12 and four, 11 and five respectively, you'd be up 21.8% risking 1.1% on each play.
And we'll do a proper accounting of our live betting stream returns this season in the coming weeks once things quiet down, but we're up multiples. I know I five Xed my book maker account this season that helped me buy my girlfriend her Christmas gifts over in Paris this holiday season.
But just exemplifies the success that we've had this season, and it's a very difficult environment. And now you know, we creep into a noisy, heavily information driven, motivation driven, incentive driven week 18. Very difficult to bet, very difficult to handicap. It's gonna be an interesting game, trade, live betting stream on Sunday.
Trying to figure out, in game, typically our MO is to find tactical opportunities for teams that are down, that are mispriced and we can bet on them to rally at attractive prices, come back and capitalize on that. But there's just not the same variables involved.
So I wanna. be very cautious in this week 18. How are you thinking about it when it comes to live betting this week? 18?
Yeah, I think it's gonna be a props week. I think that's good point. It's be, Margarets are gonna have a very difficult time properly pricing player props and who knows who's gonna be playing, who's gonna be, pulling their starters, which teams are gonna be playing as normal.
And utilizing the prop market is where most of my focus will
be.
So as we typically do, we're gonna review some of our week 17 drive quality scoreboard, then dive into our week 18 consensus market power rankings. But we're not gonna spend too much time on it because it's probably not that useful going into a very complicated week 18, where these types of variables aren't gonna have the same impact.
But looking at our week 17 drive quality scoreboard, the three scores that stood out to me that were misaligned with some of the narrative takeaways, how the market might be framing some of these outcomes was, oh, Packers crush, the Vikings suck.
Maybe the Vikings do suck, but I'm not nearly as buying as much into the Packers as many, as much as the market is. Drive quality reinforces that view. So Packers 28 earned points, Vikings, 20 earned points. So not nearly the same. She slacking.
Another one was Raiders, outlasting, the Niners, really impressive performance from Jarrett. And the Raiders 35 earn points to the Niners 34 earn points. And then the last one was the Dolphins. And I was monitoring some of the game trade through halfway of this past Sunday from Paris.
And I know we were riding the dolphins. I thought that was a really great live trade. They came back and then of course, the injury, took the lead. And then typical kind of injuries from Teddy Bridgewater, et cetera. Started to sink that ship, but the drive quality scoreboard tells us Dolphins 24 earn points to the Patriots 16 earn points.
Just, again, reaffirming that we're in the right positioning Yeah. In that game. Especially from a live betting. And they still cash the
seven and a half, which was our official bet, which was a nice backdoor cover. I would just add one more to this, and that's, I have been, I think, the number one bucks seller this entire season from basically week three all, and I've been like the Buck stock.
But as our drive quality indicates here this was a legitimate win. Yeah. It's their best offensive performance of the season by far. And also the Panther's defense has been good by any stretch. And look, I'm not ready to jump back on the buck ship, but that is the sealing game that the believers have been.
Wishing would come through, and it took until week 17, but it finally did. Whether that will be sticky, it remains to be seen. But it would finally, it was their first good offensive performance of the season. And that at least bears maning.
Yeah. I'm not jumping on No. The Bucks bandwagon by any means, but I've already flirted with this idea a few weeks ago, and you spit in my face, but I'm gonna do it is I'm putting one unit on the Bucks to win the Super Bowl at 2,500 just because the n f is weak.
All right. This is pro football. Anything can happen in the playoffs. You gotta win three games. That's fine. That's enough. This is mispriced. This is mispriced for the N F C. And if the box offensive of a lie can just not crumble, then this has value and I'm putting my money where my mouth
is.
Yeah, I'm excited for the Cowboys to beat 'em by 10 on wild card weekend. But I do understand the case. And look I did have a similar view a couple of years back when I bet when the Super Bowl basically saying if everything goes right. So I can't fully dismiss that.
. Look not nearly as antagonistic as you were three or four weeks ago. All right, so let's go into the week 18. Consensus market power rankings. Top five, not a lot of changes. Packers back into the top 10.
The top five bills at number one, chiefs number two, cowboys. Number three, Niners number four, eagles, number five. And then to route out the top 10, you got Bengals, Ravens, again, Packers at eight Chargers. Browns who are eliminated from the playoffs in the top 10 again. Chargers also now sneaking in to the top 10.
A lot of late movers here within the last three weeks or so, really since we've been offline here for the holidays.
A bunch of names. Dolphins, way down. Bucks way down. I just said the Steelers, Patriots, and Browns are particularly shocking.
I will note though, there's. Especially from Drive qualities perspective, a massive drop off basically from the Ravens onward. That like teams ate through 20 are essentially in the same tier of team.
If the Packers don't make the playoffs here, or maybe that game is gonna be so sour that it will alter opinion, but there'll be some steam I think on the Steelers because of the way they finished. There'll be some steam on the Browns cuz of the way they've looked and they've finished.
And I think it's almost an important perspective to keep in mind now to realize what you think of teams and where they're heading to keep that in mind for this off season. But as you said, it's a lot of fluctuation. I think the specifically for a, as rashaun now the Vikings hate has gone too far.
I think the take has been exactly the same the entire season. We know exactly what the Vikings are, and now it's like almost because they're I don't wanna say fraudulent, but because they're record is so much better than the fundamental play suggests. It's almost like the really hot and sexy thing to be selling to Vikings.
But they're the same team. They've always been. Nothing has changed about that
handicap. And this is easily one of the biggest one week changes that we've seen from the Vikings. And it's happening here in the final week of the season. And that's mostly because there's been a lot of non-believers in the Vikings.
But going into last week, even the non-believers thought the three, the plus, three and a half verse, an Underwhelming Packers team. Was that the Vikings was a hard buy and that was completely wrong. Yeah. Obviously the way it and that game played out, and again, drive quality still says the game was closer than the final score, but still more than enough to cover the three, three and a half Packers definitely was the definitively right side because so many people got their feelings hurt on that week specifically.
Now it's been this ultra sell off, right On the Vikings and yeah, and I think that can present some value. I saw some people jumping on Vikings very early for this coming week versus the Bears getting it at minus one and a half, whatever. And that turned out to be fantastic cuz it moved up to three, three and a half even before this Fields news came out.
So I think some of the most important things as we head into week 18, start looking at what teams need to do in order to get into the playoffs or to get the number one seed or to win their division.
And so number one seed for the afc, I don't know if I wanna go too much into it, because there's just a lot of cloudiness, low visibility around whether or not that Bill's Bengals game is going to be finished or not in some capacity.
Because as Chief's, bills Bengals, are the three teams involved in potentially getting that number one seed and how that Bill's Bengals game gets worked out is going to be decisive. Yeah. In deciding some of these outcomes.
AFC South title, I think very well documented. Obviously, Jags, Titans, whoever wins is gonna be in if the game ties. I don't wanna get too much of the tie scenarios. There's a bunch of weird, oh, if this team ties, if this team ties and this team ties, then this team's in. It's just so silly.
But if the Jags Titans does tie Jaguars get the benefit of the doubt given that they have one extra win. AFC North Title Bengals get it if they beat the Ravens or if the Bills Bengals outcome is a decided to be a tie. And then the last Wild Card Seed Patriots, I'm really rooting for the Patriots.
to lose. Patriots win totals with eight and a half and they're at eight and eight. And so if they win, of course they're gonna go over, but they're gonna have to beat the bills in order to do that. And there's a host of other scenarios that could potentially get in. Even if they lose Steelers loss, Jaguars win and a dolphins loss could get the Patriots in. Dolphins are in, if they beat the Jets and the Patriots lose.
So not too improbable there. Steelers get in if they beat the Browns and Dolphins lose and Patriots lose, that's also not too improbable. Then the Jaguars can also get in. Even if they lose to the Titans, they won't win the division, but they would also potentially sneak in with lost by the Dolphins, Patriots, and Steelers.
And on the N Ffc side for the number one seed, Eagles get the number one seed if they beat the Giants or if the Cowboys lose or the 49ers lose to the Cardinals. 49ers get the number one seed if they win and the Eagles lose. Cowboys get the number one seat if they win and the Eagles lose and the Niners lose.
And then lastly, the number seven seed for the N ffc. This is where there's been a lot of commotion around the actual scheduling. of some of these games. Cause it's gonna really dictate motivation incentives. Seahawks Rams is first earlier in the day, and then you get Packers, lions later in the day and if Packers win, they're in is done.
But if the Seahawks lose the first game, then Lions are still alive. If Lions win, then they're in, but if Seahawks win then they need the Lions to win in order for the Seahawks to get it. So it's like a lot of wishy washiness.
The kneecaps will be bitten.
I think Dan Campbell will have his guys ready to play. Regardless of the outcome of the Seahawk game. I'm almost, hopefully we get a, Seahawks win late line movement to, to the Packers. So I can met the Lions.
I totally agree with you. I don't think motivation's gonna be that big of a factor for the lions.
I think it's not nearly as good to get into the playoffs as it is to knock out a rival, but knocking out a rival outta the playoffs. Certainly
yeah. And what do these guys play? They give it their all.
And the lions are sitting pretty when it comes to draft position anyway, because they have the Rams pick at number six currently.
And then one of the things I have up on the screen is the current NFL draft order, because this is the other side of the coin now too. So you got all the teams who are trying to win to get into the playoffs or for seating or the buy. But then there's also teams like how hard are they trying because to what extent do they really wanna screw up their potential unfilled draft positioning?
So bears are benching fields. Clearly not trying to overtly win this game doesn't mean that they're not gonna try and win this game, but they're not gonna at least explicitly try to win. And that will put them in potential position to get that number one seed if Houston wins. Yeah. Houston's only a two and a half point underdog right now to the Colts.
And so do you think is Lovey Smith like dumb enough? Is the organization dumb enough? Yes. Yes. Yes. Okay. , because this is critical. Cause I again, if Chicago's not trying to win, if Houston wins, then the Bears get the number one pick. Yep.
The Jets lost out on Trevor Lawrence when the whole tank was on there.
Houston's been blank to win all year. Making fun of them for, punting on the fourth and ones from the 50 all year. And just the general conservatism. That's defined their season, but I think it's not gonna be any different than
any
other week.
. And then there's again, teams that don't have number one pick. So you got Saints, Rams, Broncos don't have number one picks, they should try and win if at anything, just to ruin their number one pick that they've given up. So Denver obviously sit, currently sitting at the number three pick.
They've given that up to Seattle Rams currently sitting at the sixth pick. They've given up that to the Lions, saints sitting at the 10th pick. They've given that up to the Eagles and then also the Browns. Browns sitting at 12 and they've given that up to the Texans at 12 and then Miami of course fighting for playoff birth.
So no questions around incentives there, but they don't even have a number one pick either as they forfeited that, if you recall from the whole tampering with Tom Brady and a bunch of that craziness from earlier in the off season.
Unusual for the last week of the season and because of the way the draft order shook out.
We have teams like the Rams we're just locked by to win, doesn't matter. Jeff and Broncos it's definitely been a rarity.
And then there's also some interesting incentives. This is something that I'm not reading too much into it. Also, the market's pretty efficient, so it's probably overreacted to a lot of these incentives since they're very well known.
Very well documented. You're probably paying a premium to even play the props associated with some of these incentives. But there's some good articles, one by Josh English over at covers that walks through a bunch of different player stats that they need to hit certain thresholds in order to get certain bonuses.
And so you can imply that means that maybe the team will put them in positions to try to get that, and then you can extrapolate that to some sort of prop. But again, I think you're probably paying a premium to play into. That's
something I wanna monitor live live.
I have, yes, I have a list of all of these props. And if we see Gerald Everett is still in the field like we'll monitor the price is live and see if there's
Burns capitalize.
That is the sharpest way to attack this. Cuz live, you can start to get a deterioration of some of those premiums that are being baked into some of these prices now.
And that is something that you could see and I have seen this happen before. Yeah. Which is, oh, Khali Raymond needs what, like 20 yards or two catches or something? Exactly. Or just like at the end of the game they bring them in.
Yeah, exactly. Deandre Carter needs two catches or whatever. The chargers have nothing to play for. If there's a prop open for like over one and a half catches plus one 20 or whatever, that's something I just wanna have in the back of my
head monitoring. Yeah. And that's why I would say I, I wouldn't necessarily say that these incentives, they don't matter.
It's just what price are you paying for them to potentially achieve that? And that's where these pre-game prices are just out of whack. And so to try to get some of those discounts in game, that could be very attractive. I specifically benefited from one of.
These kind of reaching for a specific stat earlier, mid-season when it was Deandre Hopkins first game back in like week seven, and he had 10 catches for 97 yards, and I had a plus 2200 prop that needed him to get over a hundred yards. And the game was over. The game was over. There's no reason to pass.
They brought him in through the ball to him to get the four yards, to get over the hundred. He wanted to get over a hundred yards on his first game back. So those numbers do matter and especially late in games, you could potentially see those serials arise. Yep.
I remember that one. Clearly.
Thursday night football.
Okay, so let's get into what we can make of week. 18. Again, I don't think we are gonna have too many thoughts, probably run through this pretty quickly, but Saturday Chiefs Raiders plus nine and a half. Again, Jarris Dim looked awesome. And now he's getting a chance. And I wasn't necessarily a huge believer in Jarret, but he did look awesome. Where he actually could be a potential quarterback
of the future. Absolutely. I lied about the Raiders watching that game. Look, the Chiefs have had trouble as we saw again last week covering big spreads. Like I said, it's capable. I think nine and a half is probably too much. Am I comfortable betting that? Absolutely not.
But if you wanna bet on the Raiders covering that spread, it's probably gonna be through sido passing at least that expectation or above. So I don't mind combining something like Sitm a passing yards and a Raiders plus seven and a half, . . You probably get that probably like 2 70, 2 80 once those props are released.
But I like that angle. .
Also. This is in Vegas. When we look at their draft positioning, they're currently situated at eighth, at six and 10. And this is a pretty meaningful game. If they win or lose it, there's gonna be some kind of considerable shifting.
Certainly the players involved have a lot to play for.
If we're talking about a quarterback trying to make a name for himself he's got everything to play for. And I I don't assume we'd see anything different from the Raider side as we did last week, regardless of kind of their draft standing.
And I don't know if it's just was the niners weren't necessarily prepared for.
what the Raiders were gonna necessarily throw at them. But I the Niners are one of the best defenses in the N F NFL and the Raiders torched them. Yeah. She's and nine and a half. This seems like a lot. Dan calls out. Something that I of talk about on Casey week after week is I hate betting.
I will not bet. Kce at a huge spread. Yeah. This is considered a huge spread. Yeah. It's over one score. I think this seems, it seems too easy to bet the Raiders, in fact, and that's why I like your angle where just lever up into this particular narrative and try to just hit it big if you can.
And then if you're wrong, then you're wrong. And so it's the same cost. But you're gonna be right, then hit him. I'm
wrong.
All right. The evening game on Saturday, Titans, Jaguars, Titans plus six again, a week 18 wild card game winner gets in. I know we were talking offline, we were one of those Jags homers in the pre-season and also pounding the table on the, pretty much all season to our own demise.
Many weeks, but still net positive in the end. But still, we have the battle scars for having bet the Jaguars this season.
This was the match up for, hit the 18 to one. Lauren let's so much money on the table, by the way.
Yeah, this for me personally is one, I'm navigating hedging futures cause I've got a 14 to one ticket on the Jags. I've got some like Tennessee missing the playoff stuff. But to go outside of that, again, similar angle to what we just said with the Raiders, which is that the titans are perhaps the league's biggest pass funnel, meaning they filter their teams to the air rather than the ground.
They're number one in rush EPA and broad rush success rate and teams pass over expected against them more than any other Jaguars are afraid to throw. Lawrence has been amazing since all year, but especially the second half. I'd expect Jacksonville to win through the air. And if you expect Jacksonville to win, I think that's gotta be the game angle which is betting on Jacksonville.
I'd combine it with some Lawrence props, especially against his Titans events. It's been very attackable through the year. .
Yeah. I'm nervous about betting this game. Pregame, I it's Josh, do. It's just these Rebel teams saying that like when there's something that matters and it's on the line they just outperform expectation
The position that the Titans are even in right now, and remember this is what I was saying, like in the preseason previews was like, the titans look like they're bad. They look terrible on paper. It seems like this team should go way under miss the playoffs.
Could be one of the worst teams in the league. I don't know how, but they just they always outperform expectation. Here they are again.
Granted they haven't beaten a team of winning record all year. But even still, yeah, this sounds awfully familiar.
Like a conversation we've had five, six weeks ago. I do think this team is so much worse than the others. They're not starting around in town Hill. But the point is well taken. That I'm not, I'm well jump into Bit Jaguars as I think I would be in a different spot.
Also and it hasn't come back to Biden in the last few weeks, but the Jaguars are still mistake prone still a young team capable of making bonehead mistakes. I would not be betting the Jaguars minus six here. I'd much rather, if the Jaguars are just gonna smoke 'em, then yeah, lean out into Jaguars minus 16 and a half and think that there's gonna roll.
But this is something I would much rather bet live. Hopefully even with being led by Joss Dobbs, they can put together a great opening kind of games script get an early lead and then bet the Jaguars at a much more attractive price.
Let's move into Sunday Vikings now out to minus seven in Chicago.
Verse Nathan Peterman and the Chicago Bears. Again, congratulations to all those who jumped on the Vikings early on.
Yeah, the Bears are not trying to win. You want to back the Vikings with margin. Go ahead.
I have no.
I feel like the Vikings Bears play every kind of gr finale of every season. And then even when there's something meaningful on the line, the Vikings choke and the Bears play competitive football. This is one of those games where if the Vikings took a meaningful lead, knowing that the Vikings give up leads, have that in their DNA over the course of the season, I think the Bears will be trying hard enough to still make the game relatively competitive.
It's still division game, it's still at home. There's fans going to this game, buying tickets. The Bears would be one of those teams that are live even in week 18, I would potentially buy on a meaningful day.
Browns plus two and a half in Pittsburgh. Browns eliminated Steelers still playing for that playoff birth. How do you think about this one?
I like the Browns here. I know Joe is certainly not on the Shaun Watson train but this Steelers love and even as we saw the power ranking things up to 12 is a little bit unwarranted.
Yeah. Steelers up to 12 and Browns up 10 by, yeah. Steelers. It's just steel. We're still, the drive quality is still very low on the, very low on Steelers. Yes.
A bunch
of one score wins against the Colts, the Falcons, the Panthers the Raiders in the snow when they weren't trying and the Ravens on football by three, like this team is not good. They have faced a really easy schedule. This defense is extremely vulnerable and beatable even in with tj.
Wild, healthy. I think Watson showed some signs last week of coming back, and I just think that the Brown defense has been great in recent weeks. I think we're heading for another slug fest. I like the Browns.
You made some great calls live betting the Browns verse Washington.
This past week, buying the dip on the Browns, even when they weren't looking very good, but waiting for those fourth quarter wes interception, turnover worthy place, it's like that. And it all materialized, but even,
yeah it's just a matter of I'm not looking to get the props.
I think cuz the volume is so low. The Steelers are extremely attackable deep and they're allowing one of the highest rates of explosive plays. Watson loves to throw deep, I think the difference in a game where, Pittsburgh's probably gonna score 14, 17, 20 points, not a lot hitting on a couple of those big plays makes a big difference. And I think he'll look to people's drones. He'll look to Cooper probably connect on a couple of those. I prefer it in a toss up style game which I think this will be in the seal's been playing for months. I prefer leaning into the Browns offense more than I do with the
the sealers.
Yeah. I like that angle as well. And I would probably lean Browns. The hype getting a little bit too hot on the Steelers, to your point.
I'm glad you actually pointed this out. This did not even dawn upon me that the Steelers, they were like 28. That is way too hot. That's way too
hot. Exactly. A couple of weeks ago they were like 26, 27 nothing's, and I don't think anything's like materially changed.
They just won a bunch of one score games.
Yeah. And drive quality. Still market low on the Steelers at 24. Yeah. Yeah. ESPN 14 PF F 13 5 38 11th football Outsiders. 16th and even though we are still cooler on the Browns than the broader market drive, quality has Browns at 18th, still considerably better than the steels.
Jets minus one on the road at the Dolphins being led by Skylar Thompson. Dolphins, dealing with quarterback injuries galore. Story of the season. Jets, the Mike White hype train, something that I expected early on. He has a few good games. Comes back down to Earth targeted gear.
Wilson, like a, like 11, 12 times last week and Garrett will still only had two catches. Just really poor performance by the jet team, my white as a quarterback and now road favorites again. How you think about this one. .
Yeah. I like the Jets here. Especially I don't, Skylar Thompson has been, I think, a clear downgrade relative to to sang Loa and Teddy Bridgewater.
And the, do the Dolphins have really struggled the past couple of weeks. Defending the past, their past EPA is among the worst in the league at Drive Quality tells a similar story and I think you're right highlighting the Mike White demise, and you were saying it for a while, but I think there's almost a little bit too much of a overreaction now, which in the right spots in the matchups, I think what can produce, and I really don't think the Dolphins defenses is the tough matchup as would be in Seattle. I'm ready to back the Jets not worried about their motivation. , and I'm certainly not leaning into the Dolphins with Scholar Thompson.
Jets being on the road again last week versus Seattle verse a vulnerable defense and still couldn't take advantage.
Bucks plus four. In Atlanta, this was as high as seven with the expectation of Tom Brady, et cetera. And a lot of players weren't gonna play. Now, I believe the last I read Tom Brady was gonna play, at least for a part of the game, think it's uncertain how long, and it really boggles the mind for why he would play this game means nothing.
The bucks doesn't move their seating. This is one of those games where a lot of the bizarre week 18 variables are in play. Yeah.
I have no interest in inventing this game per game zero, like the thousands are in and like they're already a team.
I don't want to bet especially in a ga like I, no one knows who's playing for the Bucks
I'm passing.
Texans plus two and a half. First the Colts. We talked a little bit earlier around how this could potentially affect the number one draft pick Texans plus two and a half, under a field goal versus Jeff Saturday's Colts, who have looked terrible the last few weeks.
Total 38. Two very bad teams. Absolutely. With questionable
motors. There are so many games on Sunday. You don't need to have this game. You just don't need to do it.
Panthers plus three at the Saints. Panthers no longer have anything to play for, although that wind total is still in play.
Yeah. Six and a half. Six at six. Yeah. But otherwise have nothing to play for. Saints also have no draft pick to play for, as we talked about earlier. So nothing to prevent them from trying to win this game. How do you think about this one? Yeah,
I think the Saints are quietly coming along in recent weeks especially on the defensive side as they've gotten healthier.
And Marshall and Lamar came back, had a pick six last week. Again, I just, I don't see the appeal of betting this game. It's almost a tricky handicap even without the lack of motivation because the Panthers have been jekyll and hide getting crushed by the Steelers dominating the lions, playing a tight one with Tampa Bay.
I just, I don't really know what to make of them. It is just not appealing to me.
Yep. Carolina currently situated in the ninth. Spot for draft picks. And again, at six and 10, they're in that area of where one extra win, one extra loss is going to move you up potentially five, six spots in, in one direction or the other.
Again, to what extent that actually is influencing their decision making. You don't know, but it's again, a factor worth, I think, knowing. Yeah.
Patriots plus seven on the road, going to Buffalo over under 42 and a half. Again, a lot of questions around the bills, of course, whether or not they're gonna finish the Bengals game and whatnot.
And how that could potentially affect motivation, interest for this game. But Patriots need to win and then they'll get in seven actually does seem quite high again, especially if the bills are going to be like ultra distracted by this game.
They'll be ready to play. We've seen anecdotally, countless stories of teams with a lot to play for. I would be pretty surprised if the bills don't really show up for this game. And, from a like, pure football perspective, I I'd certainly been selling the Bills defense.
I just don't think that Mac Jones is capable of exposing them. I think I will be selling the bo the bills and the playoffs. But certainly I think the motivations on their side. Josh Allen is still playing at an MVP caliber. He seems to shaken off any effects of the elbow injury, and I don't think the Patriots are well suited to take advantage of.
The areas for the bills are weakest. And the secondary that I'd be back in, the
bills here, if anything.
Ravens, another touchdown spread at Cincinnati. Cincinnati also involved in a lot of this chaos.
Of any of the games I think most hinges on of what happens with the Bill's Bengals game. Cuz in theory the Bengals can have nothing to play for, right? If they rule like Bill's Bengal has a no game, then they're locked into the three.
But I can use this as a general points of the Ravens offense is a disaster right now. Even with Ali Lamar Jackson mark Enters is their only weapon. There're starting Deshaun Jackson out there and DeMar is Robinson. The offensive line has been great, but they have no receivers to get open.
Tyler Ley is not the answer at quarterback. Certainly if the bans are playing, I think they should win of handily. If not, this is gonna be a, I think game it's a fade.
Yeah. I'm not interested in this game either because I don't see how the Bengals and Bills are gonna finish that game.
I don't know what the outcome is gonna be, but there's no scheduling availability for them to really fit that game in without potentially taking away the week in between the Super Bowl, which that requires a domino effect of Reschedulings as well, which I don't think they wanna do.
Yeah, I'll be curious to see how it plays out. But I don't think that game is going to be played.
Giants plus 14 on the road verse, the Eagles Giants locked into the playoffs. Eagles need to win in order to lock the number one seat up, lock the division up.
This seems like a lot of points for still a division game where the Giants would, even with playing reserves, still pro football players
if this gets out to like the twenties live
the Giants. Yeah. I see this one playing out similar to Houston Jacksonville last week minus the disaster that the Houston Texans are in the sense of Jaguars. don't think they're gonna have a bunch of fumbles return for for touch us.
The Dexon did. But what I meant by that is that the Eagles I think will play their starters until they get a, like pretty big lead. They'll pull 'em. And then I think both teams are just gonna turn the page, get the game over with. I bet life under, if anything, just cause I can see this as a game in which the Eagles get their win.
It's 21 3 at halftime. The Giants are ready for the wild card ran next week. The Eagles great. They locked up their number one seed.
Everyone's moving on. Yeah. Bolts are trying to get out of the game without any meaningful injuries. I like that angle a lot, especially if you can get an early score and you can get a few extra points tacked onto this.
Currently at 43, if you can get above that 45, 46, 47, that would definitely look attractive. Maybe even betting the alt under. Going out to 40, getting it plus 2 0 5 or whatever. Absolutely.
Cowboys, commanders, cowboys, touchdown. Favorite on the road verse, Sam Howell and the Commanders. I think I like the commander's share.
I don't care that cowboys need to win. Cowboys need to win a lot of games. it doesn't matter. This is the game I like the most. Wow. Is Washington Plus.
Starting Sam Howell think that's a kind of massive question mark. That I'm not willing to bet on either side, just because I have no idea what's in
hell.
It's gonna look like. Another quarterback that our friend Joe is very high on think he was talking about he thought that he was the number one. Best rookie quarterback of the draft this past season. Wow.
Cardinals plus 14 in San Francisco. Hideous game. But I'll get a lot of points.
A lot of points.
A lot of points. David bla will be uh, will be playing. He didn't even
look that bad.
You played fine last week. Yeah. The de generating me might throw a little bit of David bla passing props. Cardinal seven and a half, just because, especially if the if the Eagles win, what's the motivation here?
Look, San Francisco was exposed by a different back quarterback Sure. Last week. But I'm probably gonna lay off this game. It's just, it's ugly. There's no need to
force it.
Rams plus six and a half in Seattle, 41 and a half the total. Of course, ox need to win to get in and then get that lion's loss. Rams looked really good two weeks ago absolutely destroyed the Broncos and then came back and looked competitive through the first quarter versus Chargers. I think the Rams will be sufficiently competitive enough to potentially cover this game they just played three, four weeks ago. Rams were in position in that game. Yeah.
I do like this game and that, I think they've been playing for whatever, it's five, six weeks now. And the seas are obviously playing to, to win, trying out the playoffs. There are a couple live angles I like here, which is that the Rams have been one of the run heaviest teams, even when down by a score. They're actually, they're very pass heavy when they're up by a bunch and they're very run heavy when they're down.
Which leads me to maybe some Cam Acres live props especially if he's like having some decent success early. Let's have a dreadful run defense. It's really been getting worse as of late. I also like the Seahawks, went up by a score, have a 31% success rate, which would be 7% worse than the Houston Texans who are less than the NFL right now.
If we use the 31 success rate over the course of the season, and they've got a negative 1.2 epa which would have them between the Colts and the Broncos is the third verse Offense in the league. They're a disaster when they're nursing leads. So I'm looking to maybe back the Rams, maybe back a game under on the assumption that the Rams are gonna keep people on the ground run a few plays, have a bunch of success, but we're talking can makers, profs, we're talking rams on the comeback and maybe the game under.
Using that to really angle how you wanna attack it live, I think is very strong.
Chargers plus two and a half on the road at Denver. Again, Denver no draft pick. Denver's looked really tough last week. Verse the Chiefs, they looked tough.
Verse the Chiefs again four or five weeks ago as well. Beat the Cardinals and then no showed verse the Rams, but they have showed some life over the last three, four weeks. Yep. The Broncos is a decent side here.
Yeah. I assume this lion's baking in that the Chargers are not gonna be playing they're starters.
I can't argue against it, but I also don't want to. We're backing our money with the like, week 18 Broncos game.
Yeah. I feel you, bro. Lions plus four and a half at Green Bay. Last game of season, last game of the night, Sunday night football.
A lot of this riding on how that Seahawks game plays out. If the Seahawks win, you probably could get the Lions pre-game six and a half. I think we'll move out at least two points.
Yeah. I'm back in the shirt right here. I'm back in the lions.
Especially if we get news that the Seahawks win. And this line moves to six. Again, I think the Packer's love is spiraling a little outta control as the eighth best team this is a defense by drive quality. That's been the third worst in the NFL over the second half.
They good. They're getting destroyed by the run. We know that the lions can run the ball. The Packers' offense has emerged as Christian Watson has gotten going. He's questionable health. And I like the, I think the narrative on the Packers is very different without a turnover in the Dolphins game, like elephants go up 27, 10 and halftime.
I'm just not, I'm not buying the Packers. After our drive Quality suggested this game was probably a little bit closer. The final score says last week against the Vikings they struggled with the bears. They struggle to beat the dolphins. I think that hype, it's a little out of control for a team that's really been struggling on defense,
Over the second half of the season.
Yeah, I think it's way out of control. The thing is, I don't necessarily like the lions again, outdoors.
Yeah, I was gonna say you got with outdoor, but I think this is a one game here. I saw some cool stats about the packers fending. The here it is the GR may run Defense is fourth in EPA for play, fifth yards per carry.
Seventh in success rate against zone concepts and then power and encounter their 30th and EPA 29th yards per carry, 32nd and drive success rate. I think the lines are going to really attack the packers with powers and counter concepts. I trust Ben Johnson and the Lion's offensive staff, that's issue a game plan that's gonna be centered on these types of runs.
I think, if you were to reset the schedules and start the season from six, seven weeks ago I think the market's even much higher on the lions than they are. Yep. Even today. Drive quality loves Lions has Lions as top 10 team, top eight team. The outdoor elements is the only thing that worries me a little bit.
But in any case, I think especially pre-game Seahawks win, lions move out to six and a half, maybe seven. That's when you could get them. And then if the Seahawks lose, maybe the lions go down to three and a half, but I don't think it's gonna go through three or even get to three.
Yeah. So really asymmetric risk there. When it comes to wanting to like position pregame on this, any props that you would be angling thinking for this one? Especially given there's an island game standalone game. The true grand finale of the grand finale.
The only angle I'd mention is if the lion drop out to a lead, they're very pass heavy. Didn't work out last week, but I'd be monitoring Oman, Ross, Saint Brown and Jared Golf props. But again, they, I wanna see if they're utilizing that run, if those runs concepts or they're running with success against the Packers.
But other than that I don't think so.
Khali, Raymond, Jamal Williams, two players. That's, those are good angles. Key incentives especially Yeah, angling for those live props. I think it'd be definitely super interesting.
All right. That wraps up the week 18 N F l betting market outlook. Thanks everyone for listening. All season long, we got some big plans for 2023. We didn't accomplish nearly as much as we wanted to in 2022, but as we go into this off season, this will be our first full off season. working together, building a lot of things.
We're super excited for what game trade can be in 2023. And again, the tools that we're gonna bring online to be able to put into practice on streams as well. And I think it's super cool, again, for having, the hundred of you out there who listen to our podcast, watch our streams every single week.
We thank you tremendously. You are the true OG kings for us. And as this brand continues to build up and pick up momentum, you guys are here at the very beginning. Just tremendously grateful. And super excited for everything that's gonna come in 2023.
That's right. And we'll see everyone at one o'clock on Sunday. Yep.
Make some money. Happy New Year everyone. That's the closing bell.
