Episode Transcript
NFL week five. This is the Alpha bets podcast. We got Zach @ContextCapper. We got Judah @throwthedamball. I'm @deepvaluebetter. We're going to run through the 2023 NFL week 5 games, extract the best opportunities for capturing alpha. We're coming off a fantastic thursday night.
It's almost midnight. Zach and I have been streaming for the last four hours and it was emotionally draining. Ended up hitting a huge 25 to win 6k SGP Judah, also hit a big one. which somebody told me in the chat. I didn't know,
I took fields 275 bears minus five and a half. It was one 20 to win 11.3 K.
Ring it up.
I had a two 60 to one that I put in the discord. That just needed 50 Darnell Mooney yards there.
I saw you post that one and I liked a lot of it, but I did not like the Mooney element.
So I swapped him out. Put in Justin Fields, three touchdowns instead. But then got greedy and layered in Sam Howell, 250 yards.
But Thursday night football winners in the rear view mirror.
Let's do some more for Sunday. So Zach and I have gone through a few. I'm going to say, thinking about, from a circuit perspective, what are some of our top five picks?
I'm going Jets, Texans.
Colts and probably Dills,
It's a tough week. It's like a funny thing because I've been so in my SGP Tales Angles mode but for Circa, I got to go texans, Saints, which I really hate, but gonna hold a nose there.
Cardinals, Rams are my top two, I'd say.
Even with a banged up Stafford? I would love Rams if I knew Stafford was going to play in a
healthy form. They were like seven straight years where Matthew Stafford was like, you know, a torn labrum of this hip of that leg
of whatever.
I know, but in those years when he did get especially banged up, he didn't play
well. He was still good. I'm not too worried. I think Cooper Cupp's gonna play. That's a bonus cherry on top of like, they're a top 10 team by our metrics. And I don't see how that's going to slow down. I'm not going to let an injury scare me off there.
That's fair. That's fair.
What I would say also, and Zach and I know this because we actually went to this game is this game is going to be full of Eagles fans.
Yeah, I think the home field advantage here is the traveling West Coast. And I'm not worried about the like half point of home field advantage or the fact that it's going to be Eagles fans and not Rams fans. Like at the end of the day, I think they're mispricing both teams.
And I'm going to add to that angle, Judah, historically, the last two years, eagles tend to play at their best when they can play out front front, right?
And rams, they've had stronger scripted First 15 plays than I think most teams which is part why what makes them a top 10 edp team, so some kind of Rams first half or something in that lane.
Rams are sixth and scripted EDP. Yeah.
And that Eagles defense is just completely, you know, it's, it's banged up and just not very good last year.
Eagles are second in script.
So maybe an
over
first quarter.
Those are a little flukier to me. A lot of variants and weird things that can happen in a first quarter. But, I do think there's some signal there.
What's your take? I think we understand the Cardinals are still undervalued generally, what's your perspective on the Bengals though, because yeah, I just wrote, is it a dumpster fire or what's where we think I just wrote this up actually,
borough went from scrambling 9 percent of the time being the best quarterback in the NFL and like the scramble passes. And he would mix it and runs 25 percent of his scrambles were run this year. He has not had like a scramble run a single time. He's way at the bottom of the league.
It's a point difference every time he scrambles last year versus this year. And the main thing to me is they're throwing within 2. 3 seconds, which is an outrageously low number.
The average separation of angles receivers are fourth worst in the NFL. They're forcing coverage mistakes at the seventh worst rate. And the key chart that Brett is bringing up here, which is if you're throwing the ball Within 2. 3 seconds of the play, you don't have any separation and you're not throwing it far downfield. You're not going to be able to generate explosive plays.
And that's obviously been a huge part of their offense certainly two years ago and last year, but like Joe Burrows lost a huge element of his game, whether it's his calf or something else, like, I don't care.
There ever the reason for it is irrelevant to me, but like descriptively, if we keep seeing that Joe Burrow is not scrambling effectively, it's a totally different offense. And if you're getting rid of the ball in 2. 3 seconds and nobody's open, your offense is destined to fail.
At the end of the day, like the offense looks fundamentally different because they're getting rid of the ball really, really quickly and they don't have anyone open. And that's a disastrous combo.
12 percent of drives have an explosive play.
That's worse than the Patriots. Dead last and explosive drive, right? And, cardinals 11th in offensive EDP.
That's certainly not being appropriately priced. Defense. Still an issue. Something Zach was bringing up earlier. So defensive EVP ranks 28th. So that's still an issue. But if the Bengals offense is so inept and hobbled And neutered that not might not be the key element here that swings this game one way or the other.
I'd even add one more thing looking at the values here makes a big difference too. It's a big gap between the Cardinals and even the Bengals on defense. But in the actual EDP per drive numbers, the numbers get very condensed where it's like, I want to say it's like a point four point per drive difference between the two teams.
You can correct me if I'm if I'm point two
point
two point two and on offense, it's way bigger.
Oh yeah. I mean the, well, the Bengals offense right now is 28th. So the Bengals are, are earning 1.3 e d p per drive. And the cardinals are at 2.1. So almost a full
point.
So that's the difference, if you're looking at the absolute value, that's a huge gap. Especially like considering offense matters a lot more than defense. That's the handicap right there. Everything I just said about like my issues with the Bengals offense the fact that like the Cardinals have produced, and it's also not like they've played bad teams, right?
Two of their games have come against the Cowboys and the Niners. These are two of the best defenses in football. And I'm buying the Bengals are really bad. And if you look at how the market's pricing the Bengals right now if you look at, like, the in predict spreads they're 12th right now, they're effectively like in the middle of like the preseason projections of the Bengals and their actual production. One thing we know for sure is that they're not fundamentally the 12th or 13th best team, they're either in the bottom tier of teams or the top tier of teams.
And look, I've been high on the bangles for years, and I'd be happy to change my opinion if I see some real evidence to suggest that I should change my opinion.
But this to me is all the evidence is pointing to the Cardinals here. And if we change the narratives, like coming into the preseason, there is no way this would be a three point. No,
From our drive quality power ratings is still a work in progress.
This is still naive, but using pure EDP stats to put together a spread power rating. We would have the Cardinals about minus a touchdown at home. So that's a 10 point swing. But I really liked the way Judah framed it in the sense of like the Bengals are in no man's land right now, either like they're the Rams of last year, where it's going to take five, six, seven weeks for the market to fully sell off on this team appropriately.
Or yeah, they start to put things together because there's still talent, raw talent on this team. They still have elite. wide receivers. Getting banged up, things like this. So there's still those elements on here.
But Cardinals last week versus the Niners, they ended up not covering. But I watched that game closely because we had them in circa at plus 14 and they put in the admirable performance. I mean, it's just the Niners are a juggernaut right now and there were long drives by the Niners, nine plays, nine plays eight plays, 15 plays. So it was methodical. It was a lot of third down conversions. It wasn't like they were just cutting through the Cardinals defense.
And to Judah's point, shifting preseason priors and Cardinals and just admit that they have more talent than the market predicted.
So the numbers bear out that they're the better team. And we're saying, wait, 10 point difference. And again, until the, I mean,
I got a little bit of
a grant and even so, but I mean, like, like you guys said, we haven't seen anything from burrow and from when he tore his ACL, right.
Yeah, he wants to get rid of the ball. Like he can't move out of the pocket. Like that was like, you just said Judah, that was his bread and butter. Like that's really where he ascended. And everyone believed he the second best QB.
But if he can't do that, he's not going to stay in that pocket. He knows what happens. He has a history of breaking his knee. Right? So there's a lot of things that make sense to me. The
Bengals ineptitude has been legitimate. So, we'll post like, our alternative adjusted scores from the drive quality model and say, Oh, this team, like actually performed better on the field than this team.
And there's like a stark contrast between the final score and our adjusted score that has not happened for the Bengals. Every game for the Bengals, why they perform so poorly in EDP, because they actually are sucking.
And isn't T.
Higgins out? He's like banged up or something, right?
He's definitely banged up. And also, I think this also speaks volumes also to what you've talked about in the past, Zach, and like to lean into. Strip away the names of these teams, the brands of these teams, what we think we know about these teams.
If you were just watching these teams for the last four weeks, Do you make the Cardinals plus three home favorites?
Orange at red. What's the line?
It's probably Cardinals minus three. You probably, it might be what drive quality says it is. Minus six and a half. Okay, so we like Cardinals.
Judo, what's your thoughts on Jets Broncos?
Not a strick of play.
Broncos defense is just so bad.
Broncos defense is so bad. If we get Sunday night, Zach Wilson, I think the Jets will kill him. If we get the past three years of Zach Wilson, like it's gonna be a bloodbath.
Broncos
ranked 32nd in defensive EDP at 2. 7 and Jets the fourth best defense giving up 1. 4 points CDP per drive.
Ugh, I'm not, I'm not touching
this. So you don't think that anything in that Zach Wilson vs Chiefs, that was not Signal, per se?
There was some Signal, but it's one week.
Yeah. What I saw in like, I, the, this is something, one of those cases where like, I saw it on TV. And then I wanted to like go test it out in the data type of thing. I was like, Wilson just looks a lot more comfortable in the pocket. And like, Zach Wilson just like abandons clean pockets for no good reason.
It's backed up by the data and he was just hanging in there, making good throws, not freaking out, not having that hitch thing where he's showing some hesitation and bailing on a pocket. And PFF charts like Klee's, which are in rhythm.
Like he was 58 percent with his previous best, and he was in rhythm 64 percent of the time. Which is, and like, Zach Wilson could always throw the ball,
we know that. And that's pretty much what Zach said
last week.
Well, and that's because with him especially, is Achilles heels is it's all mental, right? It's all this fear, confidence, all this psychological crap. But now he's got that regained a little bit of that confidence.
Going into playing the worst defense. So like it, it'll be an easier team he's playing, even if he's worse than he was last week, but he should still maintain at least a little bit more of that confidence that he had last week to at least have a moderate performance. Is it possible?
Yes. Is it likely maybe even you're making a great case for the alts and I agree with you, but like why are we subjecting ourselves to like betting on this? Like you said, I would prefer to bet some alts on this game.
It just seems like an old spot rather than like, here's I'll say to that, like, what happens when Zach Wilson throws a bad interception in the first quarter? Like his confidence can go insane as quickly as it came back. It can go away and I wouldn't want to bet on this.
I feel like this is just going to, this is a great setup for a nice encore performance.
First, I get a miserable exploitable. Because
again, the Chiefs are one of the better defenses in the NFL. And what I would say is also, it doesn't seem necessarily that it was one game. It seems like it was one game because I feel like everything we saw in that game was something that we had seen Zach Wilson do in the past.
He just hadn't done it with the same sustainability. He kept it going in that game and it was a versus a tough defense, even. I'm not necessarily saying it's signal but that was easily, I think the biggest, the most eyebrow raising performance from him.
Which I think is notable.
And like you said, you're going from that to playing the Broncos. Like you couldn't have a better setup perspective. So if he sucks in this spot, then it was obviously a complete fluke.
Yeah. What else do you like to do? Is there anything else that you have like high conviction
around? No, those are the three plays I, I kind of liked. well,
Bill's Jags. Pass.
The Bill's, my take on this, I actually, it's like a I'd lean Jaguars if anything. I know you'd probably love that. It's on the face there, the little,
Oh!
I mean, cause I know you like, you like Jags, You like Jags last week, but, again, even dry and cold, I mean, they did not play well.
No, I also think that was like a case of like, we're up 17 0 going up against Desmond Ritter, we don't have to do anything type of thing. Here's the take with the Jaguars and Bills.
I don't think we've learned anything meaningful about the Bills. Like, this was all in the range of outcomes, like, they hit the 90th percentile game, great. They did it on like, the best stage, and maybe there's some signal that's like, the Bills showing up in big performances, yada yada yada.
Nothing new. I learned no new information about the bills. They still had some. I agree with that. Disappointing performances the first couple of games and like I'm still ready to buy, and this is gonna show up in our ADP numbers, like, Trevor Lawrence throwing dimes to Calvin Ridley who drops the ball, that's charted as an incompletion like, the Jaguars receivers have dropped more balls than any other unit Trevor Lawrence, the fundamentals are all still there, would it at all shock me if Trevor Lawrence Outplayed Josh Allen?
Absolutely not. Is this also a quasi home game? Yes, they've been in London for a week, and I don't think the market's fully adjusted that home field unless you're going to tell me that the Bills are six points better than the Jaguars. That seems a little steep.
The Jaguars can every bit play with them toe to toe and it could very well end up as a coin flip game where it's like which quarterback plays better. And I don't think it's 70 30 that it's Josh Allen. I think it's like 55 45 that it's Josh Allen.
Saints Patriot, or actually Titans Colts, because this is one that Zach and I were divided on. He leans Titans, I lean Colts.
I probably lean Colts. This is a spot I traditionally stay away from, like two bad teams, intra division, don't have a great read on either of them. I think Judah's right. This is the type of game that's just not going to make sense.
Like it's going to go away that you're like, yeah, that could have happened, but like there's no real edge because I just go either way. I think I have better pulses on most other teams in most other spots.
What about Raven's Steelers? Are Steelers backdoor? I mean, he
hates the Steelers. I'm just gonna guess that he doesn't like Steelers.
I don't see the Steelers. I don't know
where that comes from. I don't think I've ever heard you want to bet the Steelers.
That's not true. I've definitely bet the Steelers.
I've, I've, before You've bet the Steelers before? I was gonna say, yeah, that wasn't, that wasn't such a great defense there. But I guess there's a little bit of a trend because you also think I hate the Patriots. Like, I know if you
want to bet the Steelers, it's a, it's a strong buy to bet the
Steelers.
I really don't feel the that sentiment, but this is a spot I'm also staying away from. The huge mismatch is the Steelers offense which has been dreadful, I mean, I think they're worse than our ADP numbers by a decent margin. They're last. Yeah, by, like, 2 points also and, like, they have some explosive ability.
And I'm not sure that the the Ravens offense is going to put up so many points, but the more I think about it, the Steelers defense is so, so bad right now. And I don't know if Alex Hyde Smith is playing, it's like just TJ Watt. If you got Ronnie Stanley going up against TJ Watt and like put on a double team, this secondary is atrocious.
I attacked that last week with the Texans and the more I think about it, the more I'm going to go Ravens. I like, really, really want to sell the Ravens long term, because I think they're big time frauds right now, being priced as a top 10 team, and they're not they've got a mastermind of a defensive coordinator, but their talent's really not there.
I think they'll kind of be exposed when they have a tough matchup. I don't think the Steelers are that though and I really just don't see how the Steelers are going to score points here, unless we're banking on some huge explosive plays. But this is a really winnable matchup against the Steelers, especially when they're so banged up with, with Kim Hayward and Alex Heisman, yeah. That's a big loss.
And Steelers is the 32nd ranked overall team.
We have them as five points worse than an average team and we have ravens as two and a half points better than an
average team. So we'll have their really good. Yeah.
So you take in home view advantage, give the Steelers like two points and we'd have ravens like minus five.
So Yeah. I think it's a slight, a slightly into the, to the Ravens.
It's what about nine of cowboys?
Niners Cowboys pass. My like quick take here would be The Niners have been the best team in the NFL so far this season, right? That's not the same thing as they are the best team in the NFL projecting forward.
They last week had the highest EDP per drive of any team in the regular season that we've ever recorded. The Achilles heel for this team is like, you know, the Brock Purdy implosion game is coming, right?
The, like, discrepancy between turnover worthy players and actual turnovers is vast. The Cowboys are exactly the type of team that takes advantage of that. With a ferocious pass rush, with a very, very aggressive defense. There's regression to the mean, and like, that's some abstract concept, and not something I'm betting on in, like, a short term game.
But I think the chances are a lot higher against the Cowboys. That's kind of staving me off here. Three and a half is like... And Niners are definitely at their top.
What about any Cowboy Alt? Is that feasible? Cowboy Alt's feasible, yeah. I probably want to tell that story in some way.
It depends how the prices are. With a pretty yards, especially if we can throw some sacks in there, but I think it will be a funky SGP if anything. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
So I guess maybe last is chiefs vikings. Our vikings at home plus four versus
the chiefs that a wet blanket. What we talked about in our offseason previews shows up over and over again. They have these kind of bursts where it's like, There's the old chiefs! No, no, not the old chiefs. And it goes back to that, like this team, Can't move the ball!
It's weird.
Mahomes hasn't been that good. Like, I initially, like, after week one, I was like, Oh, it's all overblown, and I thought Mahomes actually played great. Yeah, I still would have my homes like there's a huge, huge gap between my homes and everyone else that like my longterm expectations of the Chiefs haven't changed and I'd still powering them as the number one team and I still think they should have the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl.
But in this moment, it's iffy and like the Vikings just have a way of playing these coin flip games, right? Like they're going to keep it close. They're going to score. I'm not so worried about the Chiefs defense slowing them down. And yeah. Mahomes has an advantage in, in coin flip games because he's Mahomes and like when he gets the ball in a need to score situation or score to win situation, like he's the guy you want out there and he has an advantage, but like, I don't want to be betting on games where I want to be on the right side of a coin flip as opposed to like, I think I have some angle at the markets not accounting for, and that's why I want to bet it.
So I don't love it. I don't love either side.
Well, I don't think the market's accounting for the Vikings being the third best team in the NFL, wink wink, which is how we have them priced.
I mean, if the Vikings do not commit the same sort of like, ridiculous, circa 2022 Jaguars turnovers...
This team is legitimately 4 0
and
everyone's talking about them. Yeah. Yeah, but they're not. It's true. Keep doing it. Well, what's what's tricky is I think they do deserve to be two and two or well, not really I mean but it still doesn't change that, like, they did it again last week.
I will say one thing which is. I love this SGP. Rasheed Rice, I think, is going to emerge as the Chiefs number one wide receiver. He has been absolutely dominant when on the field. He just hasn't seen the field so much. And every week his snap share is increasing and increasing. I wouldn't be shocked if this is the week he takes over.
And I love that. He's earned a target in the 30s, there are only like five players who have a higher rate. It's like Puka Nikua, and then Tyreek Hills, Stefan Diggs, Devontae Adams, all those guys. Not saying that Rashi Rice is That's good company.
Yeah, but that's good company. You want to be in that company. And I think the more time he gets, and the less the Skymores of the world get, I think the better the Chiefs offense will be. That might be the thing that kind of like Okay, they've got their guy again.
Sort of thing. I'll definitely be leaning into that, like, Rushy Rice angle. Also, his props are going to be minuscule. Yeah. We'll be able to get like, 80 yards at like, plus 880 or something like that. Yeah. I like those.
I mean, you got all these Chiefs wide receivers.
Yeah. And they all have great opportunity. No one's stepped up so far. And that's another thing that you can see again, when Mahomes is creating time. in the pocket running around scrambling, there's no chemistry to find anybody. And this is why you start seeing these lofts, and then they end up just going right into the defender's hands, or you see these bombs and they end up just hitting the grass, there's no one around.
He doesn't know where to go. There's no touch. There's no feel. And it's all coming back to bite him this season. And do you figure out all of that in one season? You know, maybe, but I think that's really interesting, you know, to see if, you know, Rishi Rice is the guy that finally, Kind of like as he gets more opportunity, he starts capitalizing on that opportunity and becomes a legitimate wide receiver.
One for a offense with the best quarterback in the NFL, that could
be explosive.
And even if they're wrong that Rishi Rice or Justin Ross or Skymore, like whoever they choose, like at some point you've got to kind of like, just say, Hey. We're going to go with this guy to your point, Brett, so that you find that chemistry, even if he's not the best, which to Judah's point, it sounds like he actually is.
So you figured the chiefs are like navigating that and they're going to make it. They're going to be decisive. Kind of like they were when they replaced Clyde Edwards, Hilaire. So there's precedent that like, at some point they're going to realize this guy's trash. Let's move on to the next guy.
I thought actually too, what was interesting is does the complexion of this chief's offense change, especially in special situations in the game, that last drive 16 plays. It's eight minutes 10 runs, so it was a run heavy drive when they most needed it.
And it wasn't a pass heavy drive, leaning into Mahomes arm taking care of business. It was on the ground and Pacheco has certainly looked, he's the one who kind of gets them out of a rut sometimes.
They're much more balanced this year, which I think they have to be,
yeah, they're still going to have the highest pass rate and like pass rate over expected or whatever it is. But the fact that they're having some success on the ground is certainly a change in past years.
I think you were starting to ask me about new Orleans and new England.
Yeah, that's a spot. I lead new Orleans here. Both teams play a ton of man coverage. This is one of those sort of spots for me. And there's just a huge, huge mismatch on both sides of the ball. Matt Jones is the worst EPA by a wide margin against man coverage that happens when you're trotting out Devante Parker can't separate.
Kendrick Bourne's fine, but he'll probably be going up against Marshawn Lattimore, who's having a another great year. And then on the flip side, like, the, the, Patriots are like trying to out you guys at cornerback right now.
They're down all three of their guys going up against Michael Thomas, the GOAT, Rashid Shahid, and of course, Chris Olave. That is just a huge, huge mismatch. I would love this play if Jameis Winston was playing quarterback or if I knew that Derek Carr was healthy. Take away the Belichick thing that's going on and like, Oh, the Patriots, the Patriots, this, this team is not good right now. They just lost Matthew Judon as well, like these are huge losses.
Their defense is paper thin. The Saints have way too much talent to continue to, you know, be a bottom five offensive team. If this is a spot where they don't hit like major, major, major downgrades to the Saints, but this really sets up so well for them.
And that's I guess what the prediction is then is Saints putting it together on offense, which we haven't seen much of. I mean, it was a little bit. Two games, but it's just been
barely, barely move the needle. I mean, the Panthers hung with them pretty much that whole game, finally, the saints separated a little bit there in like the fourth quarter and then let the Panthers go rolling right down the field to, to get that garbage time touchdown, the drives last week for the saints and the bucks, the saints three plays punt.
9 plays punt, 6 plays punt, 1 play turnover, 4 plays punt 4 plays turnover, 1 play turnover. That is some ugly drives. At home. Versus the bucks.
The bucks were that without a corner. And I think another one got hurt in the game too. Derek Carr clearly was not team.
He hurt. Yeah. Is he gonna be back fully? Because my, my only concern, that's what makes me very nervous about that, that's what makes me nervous. I like your setup but it kind of brings me to like the, the Bengals Cardinals, right?
Like The only way you back the bangles is the assumption that the quarterback is now healthy, right? I think the similar spot for the Saints well, is Carr actually okay? I'd push back a bit there in the like magnitude, which is like, if the market's wrong on Burrow, they're like five points wrong on Burrow.
If they're wrong on Carr, it's like maybe, you know, a negative one in our direction, but it's a positive three. If he's like really healthy sort of thing. Yeah, yeah, true, true.
Darnell
likes your guy Rasheed Shaheed. Plus 1760 over 100 yards.
Yeah.
If we get Jameis in there, I would love that play because he's not going to be afraid to launch it. I could see just like another like super conservative, low volume not a lot of plays run, but the Patriots play at a very, very fast pace, which is notable.
And this is also a function of the fact that like, I don't like a lot of circuit picks this week and like, I usually feel like I'm like mildly comfortable with like seven to eight sort of picks. This is like three to four and I'm stretching. But it's also that I, I think it's really two sided, which is even if none of this is true about the Saints, like, I'm not sure the Patriots offense can be able to score against the Saints defense.
And I'm willing to take it with the Saints here.
I guess the thing that just makes me uncomfortable about this is that they both just don't seem like good teams at this point in time. And it's a pick'em, and the Saints are
on the road. Would you grant me this?
There's a lot easier of a path for the Saints to be good than the Patriots to be good. Yes. Yeah. But can the Saints be good if the coaching and scheme on offense continues to just... It's remarkable how talented their receivers are and like in the way they can isolate scheme, just how bad, like how often they're forcing coverage mistakes.
It is not great. It's not great. And I was talking to someone today. I was like, I think Alave and Rishi. I'm not going to say it. You already
said it wrong. It is similar. Rishishi. Is similar in talent to like, obviously not the scale, but like Tyreek and Waddle, you know, not necessarily as fast, but very good at separation. But can't get them the ball. Can't score points.
Like what's going on? Like, does it make sense? Yep.
Okay. Good stuff. I think we got, I got a little bit of a brewing five picks here. Thinking a little bit about Texans, maybe some Colts. Saints, maybe I think Cardinals is good. I think Rams is good. And then it's a little bit dicey from there. Alrighty. We've been streaming for about five hours. I'm tired, but we hit some juicy SGPs that makes it feel a lot. That's closing bell. See you next week.
