Episode Transcript
Welcome Kings, to the NFL Week 2 market outlook, where we go through the slate game by game, break down our thoughts, evaluate potential live betting opportunities, and provide insight into how we're expecting to position our Circa millions contest selections.
Judah, we're off to a red hot start to the season. And even off to Week 2, you posted a note on PFF, how you should be positioning for live betting the Chargers Chiefs game last night. And it basically came to fruition. Almost perfectly. I used it as a framework to help me live trade the game.
And I just made a killing. I know you were off at a wedding. But do take comfort that somebody materially benefited from your IP.
I'm thrilled. And I'm glad the process was right there.
Before we do kick off and go through the slate.
One of the things we'll post later in something that we'll be updating every week here is a consensus market, power ranking. What we're doing is looking through the power rankings from major media providers, like ESPN, PFF, 538, Football Outsiders, and also Inpredict, which looks at gambling lines and comes up with market ranking. And then aggregate all of that. Equal weight them, to come out with this consensus market power ranking. We see the expected teams there at the top, the Bills, Bucs, Chiefs.
But we could see how rapidly the Vikings have moved. Up to slot number seven. And one of the things that we'll track too, from week to week moving forward is actually the Delta of how these teams are changing from week to week. And then as we get more and more data, we'll be able to track it, through a time series, which could provide some really interesting insights.
I would
add one thing with the 538 and Football Outsiders rank specifically, it's only using the data from 2022, which isn't it's to say it's a different metric, almost like ESPN, PFF and Inpredict are obviously building in some prior. And I think as to say we shouldn't be paying attention to the 5 38 in football outsiders.
But that's just an important word of caution, which is why the Vikings for instance, are so high because they're week one game graded out really well, but that counts for something and we should pay attention to that.
Yeah, these are different methodologies and approaching it in different ways.
And then putting them together can give us a general sense of how the market is positioning. How are they evaluating these teams, cuz then that gives us a proxy to better understand whether or not we think a team is maybe over or underrated versus their underlying fundamentals and that can help us then position our weekly bets.
Let's start with the Dolphins at the Ravens. Dolphins currently, plus three +105. I saw this been bouncing around. Got a little bit of juice here, but I've seen it at the three, three and a half.
Any strong feelings on this game? the Ravens did not look good. Yeah. Last week versus the Jets, that was something that we talked about last week and that we were cautious about. We still did do the Ravens in survivor that did make the most sense. And they were, it was never really in doubt that they were gonna not win that game because the Jets did look pretty bad, especially the offensive line. Flacco under a ton of pressure.
But Flacco still, I know you hate Flacco and you think Flacco is not a NFL starting quarterback, which I probably agree with you there, but he didn't look as putrid as maybe you expected him to be.
I'm not saying he's like actively going to, hurt your team in the sense of turning the ball over or getting sacked at such a rate where it's impossible to have success.
He's just not doing anything to add points. If anything, he can let the surrounding talent elevate him and not the other way around.
I think I like the Dolphins here a little bit. First, the Ravens are going to be missing.
Most of their secondary, I think Marlon Humphrey's hurt. Marcus Peters might be back for the first time since 2020. They I play a ton of man coverage and they're going up against two operational receivers with Tyre kill and Jalen waddle. And I think if they create separation will which I think they will against a week secondary where man coverage matters more, that almost they'll be able to take the Dolphins and put them on their back.
It's almost betting on those two guys. Whether or not I can find good props to make that bet or whether that's a bet I wanna make on the money line is a different question. I'm just not really sure what to make of the Ravens offense. I don't know if they're trying to replicate the 2019 team, if they're the 2021 team, was it just a weird week with the Jets?
But if Lamar Jackson's not running the ball and the threat of a design run is not in play, the Ravens are not the same offense. And Lamar Jackson didn't run was that game plan specific against the Jets, because they thought, okay, we don't need to run him because it's replying the Jets. That's a question.
That's what it was. Which is that's why I wanna take one more week.
Yeah. I Again I think the 2019 Ravens is off the table.
That's not happening. And one of the things I talked about last week too, is with the expectation that Lamar Jackson was likely going to be more cautious, a little bit less aggressive over the course of the season. Not necessarily in that game specifically, but it did play out that way in that game specifically.
But I'm not patting myself on the back for that call at all. I think it's more, so what you just said. Why show all your cards? Why play super aggressively versus the Jets. They toyed around with them for the first half didn't look good. But then pulled away in the second half, mostly through a few explosive plays and again, some Jets turnovers.
But I think if the Ravens need to use Lamar Jackson in a certain way, they will, again, not in the 2019 way.
I think almost the play is a live bet where we're looking at Lamar Jackson's usage early and of seeing how they wanna operate that offense.
And again it's a little uncomfortable cuz on, snap of fingers, they can just change everything. And their second half game plan can be to run Lamar Jackson. But I think that's almost how I wanna approach it, whether that's an under, whether that's a Dolphins bet.
There's a huge coaching edge for the Ravens. If the Dolphins were to take a lead that to bet the Ravens, especially if the Ravens are playing overly conservative again, like they were versus the Jets in the first half, I think they'll flip a switch and they're capable of flipping a switch.
My concern is. Is the Ravens weren't really able to move the ball even on the Jets, unless the Jet's defense is pretty decent.
That's something we can talk about in the next game. But I actually think the Jets defense is a lot better than they were last year.
Okay. So if that's the case, then it's maybe not so bad. Cause essentially the Ravens had a few explosive plays and that's what allowed them to pull away. And then again, Jets
mistakes. But that actually, I just wanna make one more point gets to what I was saying earlier about the difference between 2019 and 2021 team was the 2021 team reinvented themselves by basically like changing Lamar.
Jackson's a two yards further downfield and they became a great quick passing and like taking a bunch of deep shots. Which is a totally different offense than the gain. We know we're gonna gain seven yards of play running the ball, smashing the defense type offense. That's the 2019 team in my head, as opposed to the 2021 team.
And are there in so far as we can predict explosive plays the Ravens are gonna live and die by them. Yeah.
And I'm curious how they position their offense, but I'm gonna take one more week to let everything crystallize before I make any place.
The other thing is the Patriot's defense is not supposed to be very good at all. And the Dolphins scored essentially, I would say less than 10 points on that mean.
Yeah, because one field goal was on a short field. Another one's a defensive touchdown. Our
Drive quality metric had them at 11.7 points, boom. At 12 points. Exactly.
And so now we're gonna be playing a much tougher defense on the road. The hook is gonna keep people off this game because that doesn't make anyone feel comfortable.
Oh the Dolphins beat the Patriots. Plus I'm getting the hook. Ravens didn't look good versus Jets. I could see Dolphins potentially being a top 10 pick.
I'm not excited to make that pick. But I don't absolutely hate it.
Jets at the Browns. Jets plus six and a half. This is what they were just last week versus Ravens who are a much better team than the Browns.
You don't go from being a dog against Carolina to being a six and a half.
My favorite against the Jets. Jacob Burett was terrible. He had all day to throw he couldn't do anything. I think the Jets defense is a little better than people anticipate. A part of that's being healthy. I also think that like their secondary really has drastically improved DJ Reid is a really good corner. Sauce, gardener first round pick has been brilliant at every level he's played.
But there are definitely pieces there. Quinn Williams, Carl Lawson. I think Robert so has been a successful defensive coach. I'm not just gonna assume the Jets are gonna be a train wreck on defense because they were decimated by injury last year.
And I think that's kind that kind of has to be what's built in to the Brown's price.
The total right on this is already pretty low 39 and a half.
What? It's the lowest on the board, but I I already did bet the 39 and a half under, just because you're talking about the Jets defense could be potentially better than the markets currently pricing them. The Browns have a decent defense and certainly I think miles Garrett's gonna be able to get pressure.
And Flacco is just a statue. One of the things I was texting you about when I was rewatching, this game was Flacco. Didn't look bad at all. When he had time. Yeah. Because he just didn't have a lot of
time. That's a, yeah. And you're not gonna get time that's and he
can't move it all. So you make him move a little bit off his pivot foot and all of a sudden it's all chaos breaks loose.
But this is not the spot to bet on Flacco then miles, Garrett's going to destroy the Jets offensive line. There's no active case to be made for both teams.
The thing
is the Jacobi percent looked bad.
The wider receivers were not helping him whatsoever. Didn't look like the play calling was helping him whatsoever. But I really like those Jets weapons and man, if Zach Wilson can just be anything less than terrible, when he comes back, he could obviously help mitigate some of the, that offensive line weakness since he can at least move
around. Especially with his style of play is built on trying to extend plays.
Yeah.
I could see upside in that Jets and again, six and a half just seems like a lot. The Browns run game did everything. Yeah. For them first, the Panthers. And we knew the Panthers are already like had a weakness for that. And they took advantage of it.
It's not just six and a half, six and a half with a crazy low total.
Which means like they're really anticipating the Jets not being able to score. The second thing is, the Jets should at least be loading the box. And they have the corners who are gonna beat the brands of receivers, right?
Like you like to think that sauce garner and DJ re will be able to beat Don people's Jones and Amari Cooper with Jacobi, Bri, Seth throwing the ball. But that doesn't necessarily mean that's how the Jets are gonna play defense. The bottom line to me is I don't see how you can back either side.
And I think six and half is too much.
You're basically saying these are two teams that you really don't wanna bet on, but the thing is you're getting six and a half points versus a team you don't wanna bet on as well.
Exactly. And I think the market is still too high on the Browns. Basically the aggregate market consensus ranking is about 14. I think that's way too high with a team led by Jacobi Brice. And I think the surprise factor here is the Jets weapons. And then if the Jets defense is better than market expects, as you talked about, I think that is enough to cover that six and a half. Maybe even win this game.
Another game I'm looking to bed live, that's actually an angle I'll be willing to, to trigger, which is,
if they're trying to sell it to stop the run.
All right. Commanders at Detroit, currently one, this has been bouncing around.
I've seen that all the way up to two and a half bunch of lion's injuries, bringing this price back down. I didn't understand the price to begin with. So I already got some Commanders plus two in my pocket. I would probably do this at Washington minus one and a half, even maybe minus two.
But I'm never betting. I will never bet the Lions this season as a favorite, ever.
Oh, I wonder how often you'll even get that opportunity.
Exactly. This is the first time the Lions have been a favorite in like 25 games, which is something certainly justified. Were losing my double digits for most of the game, verse the Eagles, and then came back and ruined our five and oh week.
Cause we had the Eagles minus four.
I really like Washington here.
I like the, I can't believe I'm saying the Commanders I think more than maybe any other team in this this week. Oh, wow.
I think, I
think there're great. All right. That gives me even more conviction, cuz that was already like one of my favorite plays. So
it fuels likey cuz back in Carson wins his icky cuz he's variance machine and who knows what's gonna happen. But like this spot to me has a bunch of different kind of competing factors.
One it's like there's some real lion's love. That stems from the preseason, it's it stems from, Eric Eagers hashtag restore the roar and the buzz that created. And I think there's a lot of steam and it's Hey, you look at the results of the Eagles lion game. And like they stopped jail and hurts on fourth down, like they've got the ball with the chance to to win.
And then the Commanders are just being totally disrespected. The lines are decimated by injuries in the worst spots for them. Jared Goff is horrible when he doesn't have time. The difference between Jared Goff's EPA when he plays perfectly blocked.
In essence, when his offensive line does his, their job well for him and the difference when they don't perfectly block a play. When the play is perfectly blocked, he's fine with the good offensive line. He's good.
And then when the protection breaks down, he's a disaster. It's like the third worst quarterback in football. So I don't even, I don't have any worry about the backdoor cover situation. Cause I don't think the lines are gonna be able to get anything going on. Offense down three offensive linemen. That's three week links from and Delta between very good play Jonah.
Jackson's a terrific offensive lineman. Frank Greg knows that terrific offensive lineman, the Delta between him and his replacement is huge. And that's really going to, have an influence on this game. Not to mention that the lions last week, they played a ton of man coverage and their corners cannot cover the Washington receivers who by the way, are, I think are extremely underrated.
I'm also forgetting a key point here, which just, they're not like going up against the bad defensive line. This is like the feared Washington the first round pick or without chase young, but still, mom, sweat is still a terrific edge player.
It's not as if they're going up against a bad defensive line. They're hurt in the worst possible spot. I think I'm gonna sprinkle some Commanders alt line. Cause I think there's some real blowup possibility. Cause I, I think that the lion's offense won't be able to get anything going against that defense.
And I definitely like them fors. .
We know that the market is hot on the lions, as you talked about. What the win total moved up like a whole game over the course of the off season, and then lions backers cashed more tickets again last week. So now they're have even more conviction, more confidence, more money in their pockets to now deploy on the lions as short favorites.
First Carson wents let's dunk on Carson. Wents it's always easy to do. He threw another terrible ugly classic Carson went pick last week. That's exactly what we expected. All they squeaked one out verse the Jags. Now they're gonna come home verse the lions. Oh, lions only minus one.
Gimme the lions. And I'm gonna fade that. I think circa though the contest is gonna be a little bit sharper is thinking that way as well. I would be very surprised. If there's more lions picks than Commanders picks in Serco.
Yeah, absolutely.
COLS at the Jags currently. COLS minus three. So it's a lot of pressure coming down. The Jags, I thought it was four and a half. I already betted at four.
Yeah.
I bet the I betted at four right before actually like a half hour before it moved down to three following some injury news that Michael Pitman was questionable as far as Bochner is probably out shack Leonard is out. Is he out again though? He is out again.
He is out he's out
again. Yeah, no way.
Yeah. I said the, obviously it's gonna be a while until he is back. He's got a he's got a serious injury. That, because
I saw that he was like practicing all week.
He was ruled out. Oh. And Alec Pierce has concussion he's out.
The fact that it's back surgery and the fact that he wasn't questionable this week and they just ruled him out, leads me to believe
it's man shack, Leonard out, dude, the dude was practicing all week. Yeah. I, oh my guy love Jags now. Wow. Wow. Dude, I liked Jags. This was definitely a top five pick.
No doubt about, cause again, I've only bet like three games. Commanders being won. Jag's the second. That was assuming. Alright. Cause again, I was reading, oh, Shaq Leonard, full practice, three days in a row. He's coming back.
He has been ruled
out. Yeah. And then I saw a little bit of news around yeah.
Pitman his practice, but I'm like, yeah, he's probably still gonna play. So I'm assuming they have Leonard and Pitman and I still like Jags plus four. And in circa we got before. Yeah. And I think, and now they're going down the road down south to Jacksonville who they put in a great performance in week won. Yeah.
Top, top 10 drive quality score by our numbers. And I was with some, the bunch of drops in the end zone. Which again, they're probably gonna be drops. Yes. They're going to be drops.
It's gonna happen. Yeah. You can price that in whether those happen in the end zone though is probably not priced then and the fact that they didn't convert. In fact, I think they failed on downs in one of those instances and kicked the field goal. Those points do matter. So the performance could have been even better.
Had the drops come, on a second and 10 from the 50, as opposed to in the end
zone. Yep. I love the resilience that we saw from the jacks to keep fighting, come back, take the lead. In fact, it gives me even more conviction to be the jacks this week because they lost yeah. That game as well. But they know that they were competitive.
They had an opportunity, in fact, even still to win it near the end there, but again, you still got a young quarterback. You still got a team coming together, new coaching staff. And that's why I was like talking to you. I think offline about saying it was like, I don't, because they didn't bring it all the way home.
It's you can't really expect 'em to necessarily this early in the season. This is one of the reasons why I really liked Washington last week too. And, we had it in one of our circuit picks as well. I bet a lot of Washington, but on our live stream, you're talking about like how, when they were, losing by double digits, know, we got the Jags 10 and a half Jags plus nine and a half.
You thought the Jags were gonna come back and win the game. And they did come all the way back and took the lead. Yeah. And I think they're gonna be a great team to live bet over the course of the season as well. Absolutely.
Also just like they're the, they're not dealing with any injuries. There was no one on their injury report.
Wednesday, Thursday. No one. Love it. Yeah. I got the bet in this morning. I'm glad we got up before it got down to to three.
Beautiful. All right.
Bucks is another interesting one bucks at the saints at two and a half. Right now I saw, I think it opened three, maybe even three and a half. Now it's gone under the three, both teams already dealing with a bunch of injuries.
It's well documented. Tom Brady has struggled mightily verse the saints, since he's come to Tampa. Some ugly losses, particularly last year one, they got demolished and then another, like a nine zip loss where the bucks just couldn't do anything.
And now the line just went off the board.
Oh, whoa. I wonder if there's some injury news that just came in. Yeah.
Yeah. I wonder also documented that Marshon Latimore has beaten like Evans every time aside from one early on like I have there, I think there's some signal there, especially cuz Brady does have a tendency if he needs to lock onto one receiver.
Yeah, this is probably a layoff one. I don't think there was like too much signal to take away from the bucks week, one game versus the Cowboys.
And then the saints, obviously looked pretty crappy throughout three-fourths of that game. And was it just working out the Kings? Like whole new basically wide receiver set.
Yeah. For James Winston and we know James Winston can also start off slow, but man. There was a few kind of like missed passes between Winston and Mike Thomas early in that game. Like these guys just aren't on the right page.
Yeah. And then in that fourth quarter, it was like, they were in sync through some just perfect dimes to Mike Thomas. And so was that the Falcons again, relaxing playing this like zone defense and Winston was of picking it apart and the better team, just kind, forcing their will over the, over, over the course of the latter half of that game.
Cause if it's fourth quarter saints. Oh my gosh. I love the saints.
Yeah. I think which, by the way, I think we can absolutely see towards the end of the season. Yes. But if everything clicks, they've got some real upside. Yeah.
Just seeing that fourth quarter opens the door to your point and say, this is the type of team you could see.
Yeah. I still love the saints to win this. Yeah. To win this division.
The bottom line for me is, if I was filling out a pick, I'd take this an here. I'm not excited about it. I don't like it enough to bet. I also have enough futures on the saints specifically in the NFC, south and selling the books that like that's enough exposure for me.
Yeah. But I wanna see. How this game plays out as a fan I'm ecstatic about it,
honestly.
Yeah. From a live bedding perspective that if the books go down, I don't know if I'm gonna be quick to try to jump on the books to make any sort of comeback in this one.
I actually got my face ripped off betting the bucks live versus saints when they were at a deficit multiple times and they never really staged a rally.
To your point. And we'll see what the receivers are like, but Brady, obviously timing is crucial for him.
That's emblematic in Tyler Johnson's experience. It was like a fine receiver. He was just never on the same page as Brady. And if we're talking about down a couple receivers facing a good secondary, probably gonna have some pressure in his face. It's not a team I wanna be backing. Coming back from a deficit
all right. Panthers at giants Panthers, plus two and a half. This went down to two. I don't think I seen a three yet. I've already taken the two and a half. I think the Panthers win this straight up. I think this should be pick 'em at best. The giants should be favored mean certainly by almost a fuel goal versus anyone at this point in time. We liked the giants last week we had the giants five and a half, had some giants money line.
You even took some like alt lines on the giants as a potential kind of tail play. They made a few different calls here that you could see from the head coaching perspective that it's gonna offer some upside for the giants. Barkley obviously looked off awesome. This is one of the first times that we're really getting to see him at full health and it looks like they're certainly gonna be leveraging him a lot over the course of the season. Same bonehead plays from Danny dimes. He can make a few throws here and there. The giants defense looks very vulnerable. And baker Mayfield, and this Panther's team really came alive in that second half fourth quarter, a theme that we saw of throughout last week, which was this like dichotomy between first half and second half performances.
And if you wanted to lean into teams as a week, two theme of leaning into teams that played better in the second half , Panthers would certainly be one of those teams.
I really like the Panthers early on in the week. There's one angle. That's really keeping me from betting the Panthers, which is that their run defense is atrocious.
Yes. Last year they faced a horrible set of running backs. And we saw the Browns run all over them. They had 220 yards rushing and I think the giants and their coaching staff is smart enough to adapt and tailor their game plan towards basically getting the ball to Barkley in space.
And I think Barclay can just totally run over the Panthers, shorten the game and the giants can win that way. In that instance, there's an interesting play of betting the giants to win the first half and bet the under essentially saying the giants are gonna shorten the clock ride barky.
There'll be a low scoring half and the giants come out and win. But everything else aside from that one angle is definitely pointing me towards the Panthers. The giants are not gonna be able to cover DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson bigger. Mayfield's a far better quarterback Panthers have a massive defensive edge.
With the exception of the run defense
I think baker dropped the snap like two or three times last week. So just also emblematic of just working with new players, you're in a new team, still learning new playbook. And then also a lot of, I think jitters that we talked about, like how he's obviously a very emotional dude, and I think that was gonna be hypersensitive last week in that revenge game.
First, the Browns, and now it's in the past, it's in the rear view mirror. You can move on. And I think we get a much better performance from him. More reflective of that latter stage fourth quarter type performance from baker Mayfield.
But yeah, you make some great points. It's say Quan Barkley gonna be a guy you think you're gonna have in your kind of core DFS line. Yeah, absolutely.
Absolutely.
Yeah. And that would definitely be my biggest worry as well, because that's the only thing that kept the Browns in that game, which was just Chub and hunt. Just running all over.
So Patriots at the Steelers Patriots. Mine is two and a half on the road, obviously. No TJ Watford Steelers. One of the things we talked about in the off season pod. I see some other people talking about on Twitter now as well. Just how different that defense has performed historically with TJ wat off the field, you're already low on the Steelers defense, even with TJ wat and they had some of those explosive defensive plays last year.
A lot of that turnover look that they had last year, all came and showed itself again in week one. But the market seems to be recognized that because the market's down on the Patriots as well, that's for sure everyone hates the Patriots and their mine is two and a half road favorites in this. How you think about this one?
This is one of those you just wanna it's just, it's ugly. Lay off. I'm
shocked. I'm shocked that I don't hold that view at all. I like the Patriots here. You like the Patriots here? I like the Patriots here. Oh, wow. I think the sell off has gone too far. And I think that Steelers without TJ wat and with Mitch, bisky at least early on in the season, Bottom three team in the league, for sure.
I just don't, I don't see how they're gonna get any offense going. The Patriot defense played very well last week, whether that was a reflection of the Dolphins. I'm not exactly sure. But it certainly wasn't so bad to the point where the Dolphins could just run over them. And just pass it will, but just saying something, it means they're not gonna be a disaster on defense.
How is Mitch Trubisky gonna get anything going? The Steelers have nothing going for them, nothing. And I think there's a real sell off on the Patriots which obviously I've been, BA beaten that drum for a while that I'm not high in the Patriots, but I think we need to put into perspective again, as you said last week on the stream, Mac Jones is not a bottom tier quarterback.
He's still average. Maybe below average, the Patriots still have like decent weapons. You're going up against the bad defense. Everyone's selling them off. I think this is a spot to Patriots fans back.
Could see that I could see that because again I watched that Patriots Dolphins game.
Again, we already talked about how the Dolphins basically scored no points on them. In fact, now I even think about it too, is even in that one toss on, they did get, it was like a fourth and six thread, the needle to waddle and broke off a long run for a touchdown. I feel like the narrative around again Mac Jones was already very low.
I feel like it's gotten even lower now. And I watched the game. I don't think he play even played that bad. He threw a one beautiful, like 50 yard bomb that was like perfect. Even the one pick he threw in the end zone when they were driving down, it was like a fantastic pick. And it looked like, if Devonte Parker tried a little bit harder.
It probably would've just been incomplete. Or if you had vintage Devonte Parker, he probably would've caught the ball for a touchdown.
I saw that a couple times actually in that game where he was kinda expecting Devonte Parker to bail him out. And I don't know if Devonte's got the same hops or whatnot, but I think again, max didn't have a didn't play well, but he didn't play atrocious by any means. Aguilar had a fumble like that. They got stuffed on fourth down. There was multiple things that went wrong for the Patriots in that game.
I like to Patriots here.
Okay. Falcons at Rams Falcons, plus 10 Rams getting the 10 days coming off of slacking from the bills, Falcons surprised most of the market. Certainly not us. I think we are certainly higher on the Falcons than the market.
We talked about how the Falcons could potentially have an explosive offense, which they certainly showed. And in fact, there was actually multiple plays when I rewashed that game, that so many things had to break right. For the saints in that fourth quarter for the Falcons, just not to pull away in that game.
In fact, there was a huge, third down that they just get third and one, they just get the first down the game's over saints. Never get the ball back. Yeah. Even so I thought the Falcons played great. I wouldn't even say that the Falcons collapsed in the end. I would just say maybe the defense played way too soft to allow the saints to come back.
But it wasn't like that the Falcon's offense got exposed in the second half where they couldn't move the ball on the second half. They still could. Yeah. I loved the way Marietta moved around the pocket. He threw some awesome passes. He called out Drake. London was probably gonna have the good game.
He looked great. He had two drops, but again, he's a rookie, but otherwise played certainly above expectation. I think there's a lot of points.
Yeah, I like the points. I like the under also. There's some weird stuff going on at SoFi that like all of the ramps home games are going under and their away games are not which could be noise.
It could be signaled though. It's tough because the prices really moved. The look headlines was the look headline was 14. Yeah. Yeah. And this is 10 now. I like the Falcons. I definitely do. I just have no, I have no sense of what the Rams are gonna look.
Like the week one to me could have been a reflection of this Bill's defense is legitimately great. And like the Rams weren't getting anything going, cuz the Bill's defense was good or like they've taken a step back or it's some combination of the two things, but without kind of more data to paint the full picture.
I'm not exactly sure how I feel about the Rams. Honestly, a spot to me if I'm playing the Falcons as I like the like Mariota Kyle pits, DFS stack. Only cuz those guys are so underpriced and Mariotta has got serious rushing upside.
But like Stafford is the type of quarterback who is so reliant on chemistry. Kenny Galle was terrific in Detroit because Matthew Stafford would make certain throws, downfield, jump ball throws to no other quarterback makes, but Stafford has a certain comfort level with Ballade, like gala day goes to the giants and it's a disaster.
And you see it with with Stafford and not throwing to Robinson. Not throwing the same kind of backside digs that he was with other players.
, I'm certainly not betting the Rams
here. Absolutely not. In fact, I've seen some quote unquote pro betters out there issuing, some of their handicaps and thoughts and actually going with the Rams, thinking that they're buying them low right here. Buying them low from a broader kind of market sell off in the sense of, oh, I'm buying them off, getting crushed by the bills.
And I'm also buying them low. In the sense of, as you talked about opened minus 14 is now sold off, down to 10 and now buying that dip. Whereas I think, the Rams crush, the Falcons, it's 31 to 10. Yeah. Or this game's gonna be close. Yeah. I don't know if there's gonna be a difference between 14 and 10 to actually suggest now, try to buy the Rams just off that four point yeah.
Move. The Rams we talked about how the Rams offensive line was gonna be materially weaker this year that certainly showed up for a vicious pass rush from the bills. But the Falcons sack, James Winston, like four or five times. And again, gray JRA is a pro bowler.
And I would say that the saints certainly have a better offensive line than the Rams. If the Falcons get pressure on Stafford as well, that could also be big in this game.
I like that a lot. I think this line probably should be closer to seven. Which means, I think it's certainly a good circle pick for all of the reasons we've outlined. But I also don't hate sprinkling at least a little bit on the rims.
Alt spread, basically applying at the angle of they're gonna absolutely demolish.
Yeah, we know that the Falcon's offensive line isn't great either, but they have a mobile quarterback at least. And also I think again they like to get creative with Mariota to Patterson and now they got the big dudes at wide receiver with both London and pit.
Yeah.
Arthur Smith is a great play designer. I said it time and time again. He's a terrific play designer. And you can bet on that.
Downside here is the Falcons defense.
Implodes and the Falcons offense just can't even keep up with a vintage Rams offense coming to fruition.
Play the alt angle and then also play and create a massive middle or just where you're saying it's not gonna be a 34, 21 game.
Yeah. I think Rams Al outline 17 and a half exactly is a good play because I think the Rams win this game by three touchdowns or this game's very competitive.
Yeah.
Seahawks at the Niners Seahawks plus nine. This was 10. I feel every single time it gets to 10, then it gets bid back down. It went down to eight and a half, I think, maybe even eight. So currently nine it's, eight and a half in circa Geno Smith play the best game I ever saw him play.
There's just so many questions around the Niners. The thing is, this is one of those games where I'm trying to learn from you in that.
Sometimes you like don't even want to entertain a handicap around a game, cuz there's just way too much noise here. It could be. This could be, that could be that like there's so many different scenarios here. Like you're just picking out of the hat. It's total lottery. I feel like that's how this one is.
Even with the line. So big, maybe Geno Smith turned a corner. Maybe the coaching staff has found a gym and the Seahawks offense is gonna play like much better than expectation trail land sucks. They can't move the ball. The Seahawks defense outperforms, the loss of Jamal Adams is actually maybe a positive or maybe none of that is true.
Yeah. Yeah. And Seahawks actually are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Like kind of the markets had priced them. Like we thought that they were likely also going to be. And this upside of the nine years coaching staff, the Niners team is so much better. That doesn't matter, who's at quarterback and they continue to work out some of these kinks.
For all of the reasons you just outlined us. Why? I don't think you can touch that as a fantastic sweat, by the way. I don't think you can touch the pregame line, but I think like right for live betting here, right? Because there are a lot of, long-term angles at play. What is trail Lance going to be?
Is did you Smith turn the corner? All of those things. There's a little bit of uncertainty before the game of will this start to manifest this week?
It's an eight point spread. That's huge. And I think from two to 53, the Niners have a much better roster. And if you wanna include the coach that is certainly at play here. But I'm, I don't think, I don't see how you there's so much uncertainty to bet before the game, but if you start to see, train, land's not playing well, he's holding the ball on, he's holding the ball for too long as he did last week as he has his entire career.
He just doesn't have it yet. That not the same thing as saying he won't have it. Yeah. But I think we can bet right in that, like trains doesn't have it. Let's be the under genome Smith. Has it trail lines. Doesn't have it. Let's bit the Seahawks.
Yeah. I think that's a good call. This is definitely a game that you potentially wanna live. Bet. Just like all the noise around the Niners and the bears game last week as well. So it's like, what do you really take from it? Like you can obviously tell that it didn't play well. And they probably should have played better being a touchdown favor and ended up losing by 10 and didn't do anything in the second half, but we've seen Geno Smith play for four or five years.
And in every single instance, like he never play well, certainly not as well as he just did. I think I saw a staff that he's eight oh or nine to oh, ATS. Yeah.
Playing this out over a 17 game season genome.
Smith's not someone I'm looking to buy and do, but there could be a two game stretch in the same way that Sam Arnold had a great four game extraction second year with the Jets. You can hold both things in your head at the same time, if spent this bad quarterback and has a bad projected output.
And also he could be good this week.
Even though the whole way, we're talked about this game isn't plus three. Yes. That's plus
eight. Yeah. There's a huge, there's a huge built in prior of the Niners are still the team that went to the NSC championship camp.
If you're betting the Niners, you're saying we know who these teams are and therefore I think this is what we don't know who these teams are. So if anything at Seahawks, you cannot bet the Niners here.
This moves out to a 14 and a half live. That's be that's where you want this. That's beautiful.
All right. Bengals at Cowboys, Cowboys looked atrocious last week versus the bucks they're at home plus seven and a half. They were plus eight and a half. So it's come down a point. They looked bad with Dak.
Now they got Cooper rush starting at quarterback. Obviously the Bengals lost at home versus Steelers as touchdown favorites, Joe burrow, throwing four picks, missed the extra point. A lot of things had to go wrong for the Bengals to ultimately end up losing that game.
Do they crush Dallas on the road? Yes.
I think so
Looks like this could do move down to seven it's minus seven and a half minus 1 0 3. Right now seven seems a lot more palatable from a betting perspective in the contest. It is seven. Just expecting it could go down to seven.
I'm not betting the seven. I would bet the alt outline if I'm betting anything.
I like
that. we know the game script for how the BES dominate them like this. Isn't also again, Delta between Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, not the same thing as Delta between Dak Prescott Cooper rush. Cooper rush is bad. He's bad. And Dalton's a service will backup. It's a very difficult scenario for me to see how the cowboy are gonna consistently put up points.
The Cowboys looked bad in past years when Dak was off the field and that was with, Gallup and Cooper and a much better offensive. Yeah.
I'm looking in our database. I think this is one of the lowest adjusted point totals we've we have at 4.4, 4.3 drive quality.
Like bottom, 1% percentile here. And that's with Sacco playing half a game, it's even we said on the, we said on the stream before last week, I was talking about how we might think we know what the boxing. Cowboys are alike, but we don't because like the Cowboys actually, we've never really seen Dak without a good offensive line, right?
Like it's not just that Dak went down. The entire team is lost. They got worse, basically everywhere. And we're hugely reliant last year on turnovers, 30 more expected points added on turnovers than the second closest team. And I don't think even the Cowboys in week two I don't think are a better opponent than the Steelers in week one.
And it's basically the same line.
I'm surprised this line is trending towards seven. There's a contingency out there fading. I can't say buying the Cowboys. I can't see anyone buying the cows, but yeah. Fading the mens
It's yeah.
The Dallas offense at this point in time has to be worse than even the Pittsburgh offense.
That's what I was saying played last week. That's what I was saying that this is the same line. And like the offense has gotta be much worse.
The fact that bur through what he was sacked five times through four picks and they were an extra point away from winning the game still.
Yep. Okay.
Texans on the road, plus 10 verse Denver Texan, surprise to the upside Bronco, surprise the downside, but this week's price not reflecting is fading. Both those performances Texans were verse COLS 20 to three. You love the Texan. Love the Tex love the Texans last year.
Yeah. That CRA to fruition cashed a lot. Tickets was very nice. Unfortunately, didn't get the money line. And then Broncos, certainly played better than, the score. And I think our justice score had Broncos winning that game. Yeah. Fumble two times into the end zone. There's a lot of points. I couldn't bet the Broncos here, but I feel like you're getting a little bit greedy if you wanna try to bet the Texans here.
Yeah, I don't see either side here.
I think it's this press probably, right? Yeah.
Cardinals at the Raiders. This is one we've already started to lean a little bit into, it was, three, three and a half and then shot up to six. And then we bought that six. It's certainly my biggest pre-game position. It's currently Cardinals plus five and in the contest it's Cardinals plus five and a half.
So they're on the road, but they were just minus six first the chiefs who are obviously in a totally different class than the Raiders. I think we've been very loud about selling the Raiders over the course of the off season. They're oh, in one we're on the right stage, but they did play competitively near the end there versus the chargers.
We're certainly in the position to potentially even win that. Yeah. Certainly
a cover. Yeah. This, yeah. I think that reflected more on the chargers and into the Raiders. Yes. Which if the chargers just completely took the foot off the gas. But yeah, I think I wrote about this also for FF this week that these are, I think are essentially the same teams.
They're like eerily similar on defense with two good edge players each a couple good secondary players, awful linebackers. The defenses look almost exactly the same. Which leads me to say okay, I think Kyle, Murray's the better quarterback. Also, Kyle Murray is the type of quarterback who loves to play kind of backyard ball of launching the ball deep. He's a terrific de passer he's extending plays. And I think another week with these receivers building a little more chemistry will really do wonders for him.
And by the way, I think they had a perfectly league average offensive game last week by our adjust scores, by our drive quality, top 10 drive EPA also like the offense was fine. We knew they'd get steamroll on defense. They had no talent.
And Patrick from home was perfect quarterback to take advantage of that. Like we said this on the stream on Sunday, it means nothing. That game means nothing. I was perfectly built into expectation. I think this game is going to be a shootout.
Do you like the over 51? This is the, yeah, this is the highest total on the board by far.
Yeah. I think the way this game doesn't go over is each offense shooting themselves in the foot. If each all offense is playing toward at their capability, I think this is like a shootout and the team that has the ball last is gonna win.
But the market's pricing this as like Raiders big favorites. I think this would probably be a pick.
Bears at green bay bears plus 10. It was eight and then got bid up.
So everyone fading the bears after that Niners win. And certainly the bears didn't show any promise, even despite. Beating the Niners, maybe the defense played a little bit better than expectation, but offense certainly didn't show anything. Had a few broken plays, a few explosive plays. And I think that's something that you'll always have to be able to price.
And also with Justin Fields, he's always gonna be able to create something with his legs, find a open receiver, potentially downfield. That's how bears are gonna cover games and potentially win games.
Currently 10 minus 1 0 5, potentially trending back under the 10. This is also one of the lowest totals on the board at 41 and a half. This is one of those games, especially cause I'm a bears fan that like I can't pet bears.
Shouldn't bet bears. I probably have no actionable. Perspective on this game. So it's all you what's the guidance.
I would've liked for there to have been more overreaction. I still, a little bit of question marks about the Packers how does this offense gel?
They certainly didn't play great last week, even if we do, account for the Christian Watson drop touchdown. I don't think the bear showed us anything. I don't think you can bet either side the market's pricing that's right.
I think the way the bears covered this game is, again, Justin Fields makes a play with his legs, finds a receiver downfield type thing. And that, that all that bear, that the bear's defense also. Is maybe better than the market is currently pricing it out.
And the Packer's offense still has not had a sufficient amount of time to work out the kinks for Rogers to develop the proper relationships with his wide receivers. I also heard that this could potentially be another bad weather game, not as bad as bears Niners, but still impacting overall play. I think that's one of the things driving the price the totals price this low at this point in time.
So two Monday night two Monday night games to close Titans, app bills, Titans, plus.
10 man. We got a lot of really big lines. Yeah. We already had our survivor blood bath in week one, so I wonder if we'll get it again. I don't,
I don't see the same thing as week one. I actually think all the favorites win this week.
All the big favorites do.
I think probably 10 is value just because the bills have such an ability on both ends to either run up the score by, putting up 40 or their defense is so good that they can. Eliminate the, to limit the Titans to 14 or whatever it is, and this could really be a blowout. But I think like in terms of if you're power ranking teams and using a addressed point spread, the 10 seems exactly right.
Yeah. Betting against the Titans at plus 10, just doesn't seem wise again, all the writing on the wall seems like the bills could potentially blow out Tennessee. This Tennessee offense if they get down deficit, that's gonna take Henry out of the game. And then you're gonna rely on tan hill and a bunch of no names at wide receiver. Essentially. Just try to go tip for tap with the bills.
Probably the most explosive offense in the league.
It's a question of then I guess if we're playing at this price, the question of whether or not the Titans can keep up with the bills. So if we're not looking at a power in perspective that 10 does seem appealing there. Cause I don't think the Titans will be able to, score 21. If the bills are gonna score 31 , especially in the absolute worst game flow for them.
Of just like relying on town hill and the receivers
To win.
That's definitely off market because the tens are gonna scare people absolutely away, especially when it's not verse a demonstrably bad team.
Yeah. And I don't think anyone's really pricing the Titans as a demonstrably bad team. In fact, I would say the market is still quite high. on Tennessee. And it's another thing we've been very vocal about in the off season is fading the Titans this year. Certainly have a lot of exposure on them on the alt under. PF F has some rank 10th right now, football outsides, 14th aggregate right there in the middle at 16.
And I would say that they're certainly a worse team than middle of the road.
I think that's right.
All right. Vikings plus two on the road at Philly. Vikings, put it obviously that great performance versus the Packers and the Eagles were in control for most of the game versus Alliance in Detroit.
But let the lions come storming back. Only one by three. Couldn't put them sufficiently away. If the Vikings really are a top five offense this year, I think the Vikings, plus two is a screaming by if that was an outlier performance and they're gonna run through a bunch of different kinks, then we're gonna see prime time, Kurt cousins, then you gotta stay away.
I already bet Eagles minus one early in the week. And this is one of the reasons why I don't like betting really early in the week because I already have postmortem regret because I just don't have the same conviction.
And you
recognize. CV is meaningless once you actually start the live bed, depending it early doesn't mean anything. No.
Yeah, I get if the Eagles get like two first downs, this's gonna
move. I said the inside thing out loud. But to your point about the Vikings, I think I'm almost willing, maybe I'm like crazy overreacting, but there's one thing that I just can't escape, which is, Justin Jefferson getting linebackers consistently, right?
The Vikings didn't win by anything other than Justin Jefferson absolutely dominating. That was the offense. First off that's sustainable. He's amazing. And also you don't accidentally get Jefferson linebackers, that doesn't accidentally happen. Which leads me to believe that like Kevin O'Connell's doing something right.
, and like his scheme is working. It's emblematic of the fact that Kevin O'Connell is going to create mismas in the same way that Trump McVee creates.
Mismas you gotta be on the Vikings here, right? Like any sign of okay, we need to wait here. We need to wait here. I don't think that's true. , it's like we have all the evidence we need.
Tough though, because the Eagles are woo. I mean like their offense could be electric. I have doubts about jail and hurts. And even if you watch the game, he's like missing some bad throws. But if AJ brown is capturing the ball in space as he does and picking up 15 yards after the catch, his offense could be really good.
And our aggregate market powering, cause this has the sixth and seventh best teams right now.
The Eagles are not this good. No, this is pricing in that Jalen Hertz is certainly going to be. A better and better quarterback over the course of the season. I don't think we saw anything in week one that opens that door. No. Yeah. I think there's still just as many question
marks.
If you're an elite defense, you don't accidentally give up 31 points to the lion and earn points too.
Their drive quality was, fourth with 32 points. I think there is something meaningfully that's changed with Vikings, which is the offensive scheme. And I think we can bank on that continuing. I don't think we can say this hand about the Eagles. I like the Vikings.
Yep. We can definitely say that Kevin O'Connell has made a meaningful change.
If we get a good game out of Kirk cousins on prime time, because prime time Kirk is miserable.
Especially ATS. I don't care how uncomfortable I am. It's the right play. It's the right play. Like you don't wanna be betting on the week. One result. That seems a little uncomfy, but if it's the right call and like I'm working off the right assumptions that this is about Kevin O'Connell and like this is meaningful signal.
That's going to play out. It gives me a little bit of comfort that the process is right. Even though it definitely doesn't feel good on the inside.
So I think we got Jags. Yeah. Especially at the four. Yeah. Commanders, Jags Commanders.
You like Patriots minus two. I think I can get on board with that.
I like the Cardinals also five and Cardinal. Yeah. I don't.
The thing is just this is, and then that Cardinals, I don't think those points are probably like knocking down.
I was gonna
say, I was gonna say I like the Cardinals there, but I don't think it's a spread bed.
We can't fit the money liner. No,
we can't the money.
All right. So if we do Patriots, Ja Commanders, I think that's three locked and loaded. Yeah.
I like the bills and I think I like the Vikings.
I could do bills. Everyone's gonna be scared off by that 10. Yeah, no, one's
gonna bills.
One reason why I wouldn't love to take the Bengals is just because again, they're on the road, it's a touchdown. And if everyone's gonna be on the Bengals too, then it's you barely get any alpha from it.
Yeah. I like the Vikings and everyone, people are definitely gonna be scared off the Eagles.
The Eagles love us almost outta control. Really? You think so? Yeah. I can see on Twitter, the types of people who bet CERCA and what their thought process is. Yeah.
Jet six and a half. Makes sense. That price is crazy to me. No, one's gonna take Jets. No, one's gonna take Jets.
What about saints books? Nothing there? No.
I think I like the bagels.
Yeah, probably the Bengals just cause the Viking Seahawks you're, they're two relatively good teams. There's upside in the Vikings. So maybe you wanna be early to that trade before the market, truly meaningfully upgrades, the Vikings and realizes how good that offense is.
Or maybe that's not the case. cuz there is at least upside potentially with the Eagles as well. Maybe Jaylen Hurst does get better over time. And AJ brown you talked about, I mean is obviously massive weapon for them as well. Still gonna be, at home and maybe the defense does play a little bit better.
They relaxed verse the lions. I mean they were beating by like 17 points at multiple times. Yeah. Whereas the Cowboys look really bad. Yeah.
They look that way. It could be worse now. Yeah. Yeah.
I think it's very hot to fade the Bengals right now. It's like very fashionable.
Yeah.
So we got Bengals bills, Jags Commanders, Patriots. All right.
All right. Good stuff. All right. That will close our NFL week to market outlook, podcast and stream. We'll see you next time. And that's closing up.
