Episode Transcript
Gametrade. Thursday night football. Lions Packers. Division game. Goff throws an INT. Lions out to three and a half. Let's make our first trade. I am taking Lions plus three and a half. Donezo. Is it already three and a half? Damn, they just dumped the Lions. real quick.
Gotta trade right off the bat.
That was a clip from our game trade live in game betting stream. We do it every Thursday night. At the end of the stream, Zach and I ran through week four match-ups particularly from a circa million's perspective. And then Judah jumps on to offer some of his thoughts. We are clipping this audio for the sake of this week's alphabets podcast. i also left my window open so you may hear sounds of new york city in the background apologies. We'll be back with regular programming next week. Enjoy.
So as of the end of Thursday night, where do we stand? I'm with you. Dolphins take the plus three. Like why, why fade the dolphins until they show a reason to fade them?
They could be the best team in the NFL. And they're getting plus three. Rams? I mean, they grade really well from an EDP perspective. Yeah. And Stafford had one of those games that he has. Three times a year for Cincinnati on the road coming off San Francisco.
But I feel like Richardson, Ram's defense is going to key on his short passing game running out of the backfield. I'm just confident in McVay's ability to handle that game the right way.
Patriots. I just think it's too many points. I think it's giving Dallas way too much credit, and giving Patriots no credit. I think it should be three. Cowboys minus three seems fair. Six and a half? I feel like Cowboys are, in fact, the second best team in the NFL. And Patriots are like, meh, the 24th.
I don't think either of that's true. I think Cowboys... Top 10. Patriots, probably top 17. My teams are much closer than I think people think.
Especially without Trey Diggs, number one cornerback, arguably. Offensive rhythm and play calling. It's actually not there. It's been disguised by these upticks and points that were fluky. They couldn't fucking score in the red zone against the Cardinals.
Giants could. But Dak, CeeDeeLam, couldn't do shit. So, play calling, scheming.
I would say my five at this point in time is, I think I do like Giants. Giants, Patriots, Steelers, I got... I don't know. I don't know why I'm hesitant on the Steelers. I think they're just different on the roads, and maybe we're wrong about the Texans. I don't know. I see what you're saying. I just, I feel like it's very obvious.
Like, Steelers defense should smother a banged up Texans offensive line and a rookie CJ Stroud. I'm iffy on that one. Well... For me, just to clarify on that one, it is simple, but it's because it's like a fundamental matchup thing, right?
So to me sometimes the handicap is simple, but it's fundamental, right?
Like you have a huge Steelers advantage on the defensive line. Makes it so hard on offense to find points. Turnover potential all kinds of variants that go in favor of the Steelers, and that's the type of game Steelers play to win.
That's their game. So well, yeah, it's just it's just a fundamental. It's just like the Jets game It's just like Ah, Bill Belichick's gonna crush Zach Wilson. Yep. Like, that's what the fuck's gonna happen.
I wonder, too, like Dan points out Anthony Richardson and Justin Fields coming off concussions. What if we do an all concussion bait? I'd hate for you to do that. Nah, actually, I don't like it, because then that means we'd have to do chargers. Oh, yeah, yeah.
One thing about the Raiders. Actually we haven't talked about that game that that's that has a little bit too much variance I think to be comfortable with the Raiders. The five and a half I think also feels safe, but it's kind of a dead number. If this was four, do you like the raiders? If it's three and a half, like, where do you draw the line? It's not the full six. Oh no, I like the five and a half, because I would like three and a half.
That's, okay, so you would like three and a half. I don't think I would like three and a half. And because of the question... You wouldn't like three and a half, but you like five and a half? That's what I'm saying. Hold on, hold on. But that's my point. Is the five and a half is a false sense of comfort. Right?
We've talked about this in the past. Like, generally speaking... So you don't like Raiders? I said we didn't talk about it yet. I just want to talk about it a little bit. The reason, only reason is, is yes, traditionally Raiders Charge games are like coin flip games almost every fucking game. It's like, it's a lot like Stealers Ravens, right?
Obviously the quarterback issue is one issue, but the Chandler Jones issue, Devontae Adams talking about like the culture, there's just a losing mentality in that
organization. So I just don't know, like,
does that You're making a case for chargers. I'm not interested in chargers minus five and a half at this point. Especially with their injuries. Eckler I don't think is playing is from what I heard recently. So they become very one dimensional and then no Mike Williams.
So somebody, either Josh Palmer or the rookie is going to have to step up so I mean it's all on Herbert's shoulders. At some point is the Chargers talent on defense going to be able to like Even just get some variants in their favor.
I mean, they do have some key players. So since you said you wanted to talk about it, I think everything you outlined about the Raiders Those are all the types of things that are like making a lot of headlines right now. Yeah, I feel like everyone Knows those types of things. Mm hmm, and those are the types of things to that they drive headlines But like once the game gets started everything like it like it's it doesn't matter. I agree with you.
My instinct when I saw this line was, Ooh, it's too high. It should be three. So fundamentally I couldn't back chargers, but I just want to talk out my concerns with backing the Raiders Well, I think it's but it's not three and a half They're trying to give you extra points to attract you the Raiders because again, there's all these negative headlines Like people don't want to touch it and I think it's enough to take people off betting chargers for everything that you just said but man, I do not like betting chargers at margin.
Yuck. No, no, no.
Through talking this out, I'm confident in my original fundamental view that this line was too high on the Raiders. And it's because of what you did, like this assumption that like, again, there's this constant feeling with the Chargers in the market and with most people because of Herbert and he's so good, that they're gonna do it
they're gonna get over the hump. They're gonna be good. They're go and they just They just continually disappoint. And they don't have a home field advantage. It's going to be played in LA. It's all Raiders fans. Nobody gives a fuck. When I lived in L.
A. Nobody gives a fuck about the Chargers. The Rams got all the market share when they moved there, and they're still fuckin L. A. Raiders fans from the 1970s. So it's a neutral field. So in a neutral field, are the Chargers five and a half?
It's actually probably an away game for the Chargers. I'm gonna say it's an away game. So, minus half of a point. I can see that. Okay, a lot of people in the chat like... Vikings. It's time. I mean you're, you're buying, I mean, are you buying bottom? What is it? Actually, no, here, here's the point too. Remember we're talking about circa. Yeah. So betting, I think I'd rather like bet the vikings alt, like minus 13.
I like that. You're right. You're right. That's a good, that's a good angle. Because last week there were 11 games that were like massive blowout alts would have crushed, right? So, through this slate. Pick out the alt scenario like is there an alt scenario and which which what is it?
Like tonight lions was the alt right like that was always my like if there's a blowout It's probably gonna be the Lions. Falcons Jaguars. What's the alt scenario for you? What's your like? Jags blown out. Okay. Yeah, I think Jags alts is another another good one. Dolphins bills What's your alt or and and it can be I really think it's gonna be a tight game there.
There won't be one
I think that's gonna be a tight game. I don't I think both teams are very capable I don't I don't think it's good. I can see that game actually being suspiciously low score. Yeah Vikings Panthers you said Vikings. Broncos Bears is there an all I can't see it Braco's Bears I like alt over.
Okay. Again, like, 58 and a half. Okay. Like, both teams score in the 30s. Interesting. I actually think... All under could happen. I think it's 42. No, hold on. Hold on. Hold on. Let me give my, my example. Bears are not good at scoring right now, right? Actually, it's not 42. It's 46. It's 46. All right.
I like the alt under you play the alt over, I'll play the alt under and it hits the middle. I, so I think you're going to have improvement on demons from the Broncos just by being fundamentally sound. The bears don't have a great offense. Bronco's offense is very good when it's scripted.
When it gets off script, it starts to kinda get wonky. I could see this being a 17 23 game. Like, that's what, 40 points? I can see that type of scenario. But I think I don't know, over I think No. Maybe. I'm gonna do it right now. I'm gonna bet the alt under.
I like over 58 and a half, 59 and a half, 61 and a half.
I mean, but then you're basically saying it's going to be a repeat of Washington, Denver. I watched that game on Rewind. They don't have Sam Howell. I'm betting over... Over 59 and a half plus five 20 bang.
Putting my money in my mouth.
I mean, 1723 is my top. I could see Broncos getting a blowout too, like kind of get getting to 30, 30 17. Eileen Broncos and the under. To be honest, I just don't think the Bears are gonna score a ton of points. I just don't think the bears know what the fuck they're doing. , I think that could definitely be true.
Again, I'm not making the case that this is like a 50% chance. I don't think that Bronco's defense is as bad as It's the 70 point game. It's the second worst according to our EVP. That game was bad. But look what, you know what it reminds me of? It's not one game. I'm saying it's the whole season. Yeah, I understand.
But wait. So you, all right, hold on. Pump the brakes. So you're saying the 70 point game did not overweight a three game sample. No. Dude. No. What were the games? No, because the Earn Drive Points discounts bullshit scores in the end of game. Hold on, hold on, I get that, not trying to play revisionist history, but Denver did play their first two games at mile high, then go in the hot humidity of Miami. There a world that like, that was an outlier game from the very beginning, is the main point.
Playing the best offense that we've seen in maybe a long time. So again, like I had, like I had mentioned earlier, they didn't give up a lot of points to the Raiders on a net net basis. But the Raiders scored on pretty much every drive.
The thing is they only had six drives in the whole game because the drives were so drawn out. And same thing with Broncos. And then Sam Howell... And Washington destroyed them in the second half. Alright, I got it. I got it. I agree with all your asterisks. But again, I feel like your argument is like making it like, like I'm saying that this is like a, a likelihood of happening.
I'm not saying it's a likelihood, I'm saying it is better than 25%, I think. And it's paying me like it has a 12 and a half percent chance of happening. No, that's fair. The Broncos and the Bears are the bottom three teams.
And giving up earned five points. I mean, they're, but, but they're bad, but can the bears capital.
That's where I'm saying, like we talked about too, the bears have played not easy defenses. I just don't want to touch bears with anything at the moment until I see something.
So Ravens Browns anything there again? I don't have a great pulse in these two teams yet These are the top two EDP. So all under all under maybe. And because it could be a sloppy and it's gonna be hard fought sloppy game potentially I mean, I'm sure this is like already super low.
Yeah, 40 probably.
Yeah all under 33 and a half. Yeah.
Steelers, Texans we talked about, Steelers blowout. I don't really see a place for Texans. I don't see that. No, Steelers can blow out Texans. Some defensive strip sack type stuff.
I could see a similar spot. Rams Colts?
I'm comfortable with doing Rams. Yeah, yeah.
Buck Saints. I think Saints Actually also too, the more I think about Browns, I think I do like Browns. Yeah.
Yeah, I mean the Ravens do have a shit ton of injuries too, I mean, and they lost last week, even Lamar going off for 100 yards and a touchdown or something, running. Yeah, and also I think, you know, we talked about the Ravens being, you know, Browns Ravens top two defensive EDP teams. I think that Browns has a legit good defense.
I don't know, I think the Ravens... Like, the Ravens Demons was not supposed to be good. It was supposed to
be bad. And they have injuries. And it surprised, and it surprised to the upside. And the Browns offense is nothing to write home about, but.
If the Browns think they're good this year, shouldn't they trade for Jonathan Taylor? Maybe Southie? I would. Might as well. I mean, I guess it depends on what they're asking for, so. Yeah, true. What do you think about, right, about Browns for the top five?
Just the more I think about it. Ah, I mean, it's tough. It's tough. I mean, again, those division games in that division feel very, very ugly. Like, like the Steelers game. Everyone's like, oh, Steelers should have lost that game to the Browns. Like, well, they didn't. Because it's the Steelers Browns, like, that's just how the fucking game's gonna go.
So it's like even with the injuries on stuff because I dealt with injuries last year and it's just like Because they're so well coached they kind of like outperform. Yeah. Yeah, exactly And that's my and again, they know these teams Harbaugh's harbors gotta be one of the top five coaches in the nfl.
He's just so consistent. Yeah, so Yeah, buck saints any alt alt scenario you like
I like the SGPs in there if, like, kamara's back! Oooh! And and word on the street is, he really took the off season to, like, get back to being a little stronger. Actually, I kind of hate the Saints at three and a half.
I mean, I would... If I had to scare you off with the hook... Yep, the issue is though not that it's not gonna be a popular pick. And it's not even about winston for me It's just the Saints defense owns the Bucs, historically. And and the reason Lattimore and Evans always fight, right, is because Lattimore owns Evans, and he it pisses him the fuck off.
And so they just So would he do Evans under? They they might both get ejected. Well, that would be a great idea, then. You cannot afford to do an over with those two. So.
Saints have had a pretty good defense, like, all season. Yeah, and actually, when they were playing the Eagles last week. It was like, oh, this is gonna be the first, like, decent defense that the Bucs have played.
11 points. And that, and that definitely showed. And that last touchdown was garbage. Garbage time. Yeah. I think I think the way we have to think of it, too remember to reframe our thinking we're talking about contests Versus sports betting because it's sports betting if we're just remember like, you know, we're just picking spreads You're gonna go what if you're really good at it 57 percent 60 percent.
That's not gonna win the contest You can't win the contest going, I'm a good sports better. Here's my, here's my Fezzik 60%. That's not going to win the sport contest. The variance has 72%. Fezzik does not hit 60%. No, but I mean, even if he did like an off, you know, good years, you know, 60, a good year. You do it in a good year.
Yeah. And like in our best year, we hit 62%, but like. 62 and a half percent.
So being a good better, right? A good handicapper. Yeah, it's good for betting, for your unit strategy, if that's what you're doing. But for the contest, we gotta play the variants. Like, you gotta be willing to say, this is a contest pick. Not by being dumb and choosing stupid ass... Lines that make no sense but so I think you're right I think the variants like so I don't I don't see a situation where the Bucks blow out the Saints. They're injured in the secondary their defensive fronts not really doing as well as I expected them to do. They can't run the ball against a good front that Saints have a good front Winston, of course he wants to beat the Bucks, so, and, and he's got the weapons, remember, remember? Yeah, I don't want an emotional Winston, an emotional Winston.
But, he's got the weapons, right? When he started playing for the Saints last year or two ago, I believe? When he got the start and then his back broke or something? Everyone was hurt. He's got Alave, he's got a healthy Michael Thomas, Rahid Shahid, he's got tight ends, Jimmy Graham's fucking back, Jimmy fucking Graham scored a touchdown last week! I'm just saying, this, this, this sets up nicely for some alt saints kicking some bucks ass opportunity.
So good for contests.
Commander's Eagles. Well, and after, after all of that, if they win by three, you're gonna be like, God damn it. Fuck, that was stupid. But again, for, but for contests, I think you got, you gotta be willing to play a little bit of that variance.
He threw a really nice back shoulder to Alave on that final drive. That got them in the, that's what I'm, saying. I, I like the, the Jameis, Alave.
DFS DFS props SGPs. I like this angle. I like it. Little Jameis Alave, Michael Thomas overs. He targeted Michael Thomas Alave the most last week. To whom he should. And again, without, if Jamal Dean's banged up, and if Carlton Davis is still out. Oh yeah, plus Shaheed. He's got weapons. I love Shaheed.
Everyone, Judah, Shaheed is Judah's favorite player. Yeah. Some alt saints love. Well again, for, for these reasons, also, I, I do think, like, if you wanted to be off market, I think that the Raiders is a team that's gonna be, like, unpalatable for most because of... That's a good point.
Warrior? The headline stuff. Because you got Chandler Jones saying McDaniel's basically I'm on Raiders You we talked through it. I'm on Raider. I'm on Raiders now. I'm back. I just took a little detour Checked out the people aren't people aren't gonna like Rams either. It could Rams is plus one and a half in the market I don't give a shit plus one and a half.
I eat plus one and a half for breakfast fucking stupid. Let's scare me
So alright, we actually we actually made a great point Rams, Colts, we actually said, I could see it being a blowout one way, or a blowout the other way. I think it could be a blowout Colts. Hold on,
I see it as, very likely, it could be a blowout Rams. No, I think Anthony Richards could have three turnovers. Stafford has four, you know, passes for three touchdowns. It's like a 20, 27, 13 game. Rams. Like, I don't. Like week one versus Seahawks? Well, especially with Richardson. Again, his variants, if he, if he can't run the ball, if they keep key on that, he can be a turnover machine.
We've seen that. Oh, there's Judah. Judah wants Rams, we go Rams. Commanders, Eagles, we talk, I mean, probably Eagles can get a blowout there, we know that. Especially if Sam Howell is doing Sam Howell.
Bengals, Titans. I don't really have a pulse on either of these teams at this point.
Too many weird injuries, situational things going on. I mean, I really don't like the Titans, but the Bengals are not at all explosive right now. They're second to last in a percentage of drives with an explosive play.
So you could either say that is like, wow. It's going to revert back to who they typically are. Or I don't know, there's something else going on here. The myth, the legend, the SGP God is here. I tuned in hearing Rashid Shaheed and that's all I need. I love it.
Rahe Shaheed. I love that name too. Rahe Shaheed. Rasheed Shaheed. Okay. No one knows how to pronounce it. Rasheed. Wait, wait. Say it. Wait. Rash. Rashed. Shahied. Oh shit. Rasheed Shaheed. Oh, that's even better. Yeah. What were you saying? I was saying Rah sha rashed. Shaheed. Everyone does it.
Give me a second here. I have a token of my appreciation for Rashid Shaheed. Rashid, Rashid Shaheed. Rashid Shaheed. Rashid Shaheed. I guess I didn't even pick up that you were saying that Zach. I didn't either. I mean you're always making up names with people.
So. I might just have to call him like Rafiki or something. Nah, he's already got such a cool name, there's no point making a... a silly name. La Porta Party. Oh shit! Oh! His favorite pla I told you it was his favorite player! There it is. Rasheed Shaheed jersey hoodie? That, that's right. Is that like custom made?
I... They actually sell that. Yeah, basically. When I signed up for PointsBet, I got a bunch of money to the Fanatics store, and there's Rasheed Shaheed with the little jersey hoodie. I think it's one of my purchases. Raheed Shaheed or Rasheed? Rasheed Shaheed. Alright. Rasheeshee! Alright, Rasheeshee, we're on him.
Hasn't been on stream for too long. Yes, we're getting tired. Patriots Cowboys. Yeah, that's probably gonna be a tight game. Maybe Cowboys pull away, but I think Patriots have as good of a shot as anybody to win that game.
Probably a toss up in the end. So, what do you think, Judah? We're going through some games, evaluating them, obviously, from the Circa Millions perspective as well, but also if you want to make alt line bets which type of scenarios could potentially be more explosive.
My favorite alt spot is going to be the Texans. Everyone is saying like, oh, who's going to play offensive line for the Texans? Yeah, that narrative is like. fully baked in. Everything you can say about that matchup should also apply to the Steelers. That's number one, right? Like the Steelers have maybe the worst line in football so far. The Texans have done a great job engineering pressure. Like what if CJ shreds good? This is an extremely beautiful secondary. We've seen Brock Purdy exceed expectations. We saw Jimmy Garoppolo throw for 325 yards last week. The returns kind of diminish when your offensive line is already so bad, right?
When CJ is all like already barely ever throwing from a clean pocket, like no defensive line, just by virtue of playing in the NFL is going to like, she's not gonna be under pressure 90 percent of the place that just doesn't happen. So like the difference of going between 70 and 75 is already priced in and he's produced.
And I don't think the Steelers can take advantage of the weaknesses of the Texans deep. That's, but certainly a spot I'll be betting on, on the alts of Texans five and a half, maybe I'll be building some mini same game parlays with Stroud, maybe some, you know, deeper at ones with like Tankdale and Niko Palance.
Okay, maybe those guys are actually pretty good. They produce really, really well. I mean, they're not huge names, but At a certain point, you keep putting up big performances, you might have to buy in.
The Rams are also a favorite. That will be a circle play.
I think I kind of share Zach's view. Anthony Richardson is not particularly good right now. He, he can do a decent bit scrambling, but that also is a matter of how many sacks he takes. He's got a, I mean, it's a tiny sample, but he, he's taken a sack on like 30 percent of his scrambles. When he escapes those sacks, he's dynamic, but he can't really do the basic things right now.
Give him a clean pocket, he's been absolutely dreadful. And the market is kind of pricing in the 2022 Rams, when I think this team looks a lot more like the 2021 version. Right, like we've seen Matthew Stafford play with good weapons, and it kind of like, sounds crazy but like, Puganakua, really good.
You don't, you know, have 100 yard games by accident back to back weeks. 2 2 outlet has always been a darling of a bunch of my metrics. It's great to see him play well, but like, I'm ready to accept it. Like, McVay, Stafford, and this court can play well. And the, the, I want to be attacking Matthew Stafford's in games in which his opponents are not exactly striking fear.
And one macro, Judah, to add to that. Let's take us back two weeks ago, like obviously everyone thought that the Rams were not good this season. But, I think we've all changed our minds that, oh wait, they have Stafford, they have McVay.
But the Colts, like, weren't they supposed to be like a bottom three, bottom four team? Has that really changed? Has anyone upgraded the Colts? Think the market has. Yeah. That's, but are they right? Yeah. No, I think that's exactly the point, which is like The fundamental question at this time of the year is like, how are you pricing in your offseason prior to what you've seen so far? And that's the perfect framing. Because like, I would have been the first to tell you, like, I think the Rams are a great bet to finish as one of the worst teams in the league.
Because I saw it as much part of the 2022 version. But like, I'm much more willing to cling to that prior of like, past success of McVay and Stafford than I am like, what have we seen from Anthony Richardson? Nothing. Like, great. They beat a, they beat a Ravens team in like, a weird first of all, again, they should not have won.
Justin Tucker, Matt Gay hit like four 50 yard field goals. Justin Tucker, you know missed one that he would usually hit. All the right cards kind of needed to, to go in their favor to come out on top. But like, we've learned nothing about this team. Nothing.
In that Houston game, I mean, Richardson had, before he got concussed, had those two early runs for touchdowns. One was off of a turnover that was a 15 yard immediate run in for a touchdown. So he didn't show us anything from a position where he actually has to throw the ball.
What we've seen of Richardson, when he has to pass, it was not great, right? Bad pick right off the bat in that Jacksonville game in week one. I'm totally with you.
I'm not ready to kind of back off my off season prior. I'm totally ready to kind of be like, the Rams could be legitimately good. The defense has no talent, outside of Aaron Donald, But like, they have not been a trainwreck, And it's not by virtue of the opponents they've faced.
Like, the Seahawks are a good offense, The Niners are a good offense, They have not been just kind of steamrolled. In our preliminary kind of Team ratings using EDP. We have the Rams as a top 10 team right now, and if that's the case. The market is not ranking the Rams as a top 10 team right now.
If the Rams are a legitimate top 10 team, this should be Rams minus three. Would it shock anyone if the Rams were a top 10 team come week 12? I think it's in the range of possibilities.
But that's almost the point, which is like, from what we know, would it be at all surprising if this, like, would it be surprising if this team's like a wild card and wins a playoff game? No, like we've seen this game before. Would it be absolutely shocking if the Colts are a top 10 team?
Yes. Yes. Nobody expects that. And I want to play that. I don't believe in saying this is my best bet or a game of the year, but if I did, this would be one . Wow. Just FYI.
Take on Seahawks Giants? It's such a good live vending game, I don't want to do a pregame. Nice. What do you think about Bengals Titans? It's a a weird right, weird. It's a, it's a weird. So did you see, again, like one of the things that was very surprising, Bengal's, bottom two team in percentage of jives with an explosive play total, like inverse of what it was in years past, not getting anything going.
It's pretty clear where the drop off is coming from and it's, it's burough at this point, but like the areas in which he's succeeded in the past, he's not this year. He's not healthy. It's as simple as that. He's not like when guys are getting close to him, he's, he's just, he's throwing it into the ground.
It does not have the same pocket mobility. That he's had in years past, and like, he kind of eliminates a lot of the playbook. I also think like, there's no threat of the run for Cincinnati. Like you're not afraid of Joe Megson beating you.
Like teams are happy to just be like, we don't need to spy on anyone, Borough's not beating us in the pocket. Like, let's rush four, drop seven. The titans defensive line is certainly a mismatch and I think what's keeping me off this game is like I would not be totally shocked just by virtue of how talented these receivers are like the titans are extremely susceptible to deep passes and it would not shock me if like they do connect on a couple of those the total can fly over, the dangles can kind of cover the spread just by virtue of those couple of throws, because I don't think that the Titans offense can get much going. But if you like, look at it from like a median projection standpoint, it's like, all signals are pointing to like, Now is the time to sell until Joe Burrow can get healthy.
I think this could be like an all under type. Yeah, yeah, for sure. Ooh, an SGP under maybe. Zach, I'm curious what you think here. This sets up as one of those weird kind of game scripts where, because I don't think the dangles are going to have success at all running the ball, nor passing, you could end up with like.
A lot of stalled drives and a lot of attempts from Burrow, which like even last game against the Rams, like he had like 50 attempts would not shock me if we get like a you know, 1714 type game script where like Burrow completes 25 passes and you can get like. Overs on certain players, like Chase and Higgins, and unders in the game, which the books are not going to price at all, as correlated, obviously, like, if you get like an alt, you know, to mark Chase or even if you bet like a nine reception, a hundred yards, take it with you.
Yeah. That, that might be some serious leverage. I'm curious how you think about that. That's interesting. No, I like that a lot. And the Bengals buy Burrow so much, they're completely okay letting Burrow throw it 50 times a game. they're not trying to have a balanced attack.
So, playing those receptions, overs, maybe yards under into, you know, a better leverage price. I like it.
What else do you think Judah, like in your preliminary top five for Circa right now? Yeah, the Jaguars. It's gotta be the Jaguars. I don't know I don't know if you guys talked about that. I think the, the dolphins are a really interesting play. Cause I think people are gonna kind of be scared off it, but like, every signal in the world is saying I don't know, why do you think people would be scared off?
I don't think people would be scared off. I think the dolphins is gonna be one of the more popular picks. You think so? Yeah. But I'm not against it. I like dolphins. But, I mean, again, unless people try to galaxy brain themselves out of it and think they're being clever by taking the bills. Yeah. That's kind of what I anticipated.
Another one I'm definitely on, and this is very unlike me, but it's just, it's screaming value to me. It's the Cardinals. Like, the market has not clung off the prior that this is the worst team in the NFL, and they're just not. Like, how many games do we need? So we talked about this a little bit.
Zach was saying a little bit about, like, Oh, well, this is like buying high on the Cardinals, but it's like, it's not because they're still plus 14. In all the EDP metrics, like the Cardinals are average at worst. And yeah, I think to your point.
The market is still hugging as this team is tanking and that they're one of the worst teams in the NFL. No team has made a better, more money this season than the Cardinals. Not that we've capitalized on it, I have one, one thought, one thought about it though. My only concern with this, and it plays into like...
A narrative, right? A storyline. Is, the Cardinals have not really gotten behind in games. They've kind of dominated first halves, and played to their, thus they can play to their strengths. So, my concern when going up against a team like the 49ers that actually don't fuck themselves continually,
should get their, you know, get their points in the first half type thing, get up 13, 10 points. So my concern is, does this become a runaway game because Cardinal's game script doesn't play in their favor, right? There are a couple of things I'll say about that. I think it's a very good point, which I like to always say that like the 14 represents both the fundamental values of like, if you're powering the teams and also real points in a real game and the Niners are the type of team who can cover a big spread.
But to your point, like, I don't, I think that's in the range of outcomes. But like, there's a reason why we're Sportfolio Kings. I think that you kind of, if you take the like, broader range of outcomes, like 75 percent of the time I think they cover this game, which is what makes it value for Serga. Like, if we start to see this game script, like that's the perfect market to attack live.
And just like, layer on these alts. Because the Niners are a team that can completely blow you out. And playing on that uncertainty might make more sense live. But like, I'd kind of rather like, allocate the different kind of feces to their proper markets. And I like, I totally agree with you. I just like, I think that's the spot to attack live and I don't want that to kind of hold me off.
Sir, God, just because it's like, Oh, what if this, there's always going to be a word. There's always going to be some like larger scenario that like could throw you off your kind of initial game script. And I think it's true. Like this one's a little more likely. But there's such an easy way to attack that in a different market, and I don't think it kind of like changes the fundamentals here.
Like, 14 points is way too much, because the cardinals are not tanking. It should be 10 and a half, maybe nine and a half, something like that. Because like everything you say that I think, yeah, it's totally, totally fair. And I think there's a big point to make, like, this isn't the commies, the giants.
And the Cowboys, who we now see are vulnerable this is ostensibly the best team in the NFL at home with a good offense and a good defense, who though have shown a little bit of cracks from Purdy and things like this, but even still, that means it should be like 10, 10 and a half, not 14. That's also the point is that like, there is no dominant, dominant team in the NFL.
Like there are huge question marks for the Niners, like we're going to eventually get it. A Brock Purdy, just complete fuck up game. Like, he's going to throw a bunch of bad interceptions, like, He's turn like, the turnover we're Yeah, you can see it. It's gonna happen. Like, that's going to happen at a certain point.
They're not, like, infallible to, like, these sorts of games, where, like, The Chiefs don't cover spreads, but they're always going to be in games. There there are faults for the Niners.
Like, it 14 is just, it's a lot. It's a lot of credit. Yeah, it's a good point. Very good point. Okay, so what else? What else? We got the rams. Also you got, you got cards, rams, potentially jags, and dolphins. I don't want to bet the commanders. I don't hate the vikings.
Okay. I don't hate the vikings. I think the market's going to be kind of... Everyone in the chat likes the vikings. Oh, interesting. I was going to say, well, I mean, I, I think our chat is sharp. I was going to say, I wasn't a derogatory statement. Our chat, I think we've cultivated a nice little group of it might be a little bit of a selection bias, considering they, they know our EDP numbers really, really like the Vikings.
The Vikings are not going to be a popular pick. They're five in the contest. They're four in the market heading to three and a half. So they're good. And that's why I love it. It's like, ah, who cares about four and five?
Like, does that matter? Bryce Young is bad. Like he could be good. but right now he's not very good. I think. If it was Dalton, I would not like this buy at all. Yeah, that's a good point. And I thought Carolina's defense was probably a little better than the market was pricing in.
Until they get absolutely shredded by the Seahawks. I don't mind the Vikings.
What makes me a little nervous on it, the Panthers had shown, like, they're capable of, like, orchestrating garbage time bullshit, and do we think that the Vikings are competent enough to stretch this game out far enough?
To where, I mean, I think I'm going to win this game by 17. Yeah, we haven't seen that type of game,
but if Brysong is not capable of putting together good drives, I don't care who the opponent is, like, at the end of the day, if your quarterback's not making the basic throws, I don't think you're going to be able to come back. Also, like, you know, in as much as the narratives do matter, like, the Vikings, no, everyone's playing. I know, we know that Vikings Demons is bad, but like, I honestly don't think it's, from a schematic standpoint. I think Brian Flores is doing the best he can with the talent he has, and so it's not going to be a coaching problem.
So to your point, it's kind of like, okay, bad defense, good coaching versus bad offense with bad player with an inadequate quarterback. So to me, the Vikings may actually have a little bit of an edge on defense because of that. I think the market assumes Vikings have a terrible defense. And it's like, well, it's relative to like the matchup, the situation, who's the quarterback. Like, can they take advantage of the Vikings defense? If the Vikings do shoot themselves in the foot, is Young capable of taking advantage?
I think that's just a more articulate way of trying to present the case I was before, which was like, exactly. I, and Zach, I think it's what you're saying. Bryce Young is not the type of quarterback to take advantage of all the flaws.
So what about Ravens Browns? No, no strong view? No, Eileen Browns. I like the under in that game.
That's what I like. Yeah. We were talking about all under. Ravens, Browns, top two defensive EDP teams back to back. Yep. And you want to talk about explosive drives, both teams in the, if you like plotted the graph of like how good you are on offense on the X and how good you are at preventing explosive plays on the Y, like both teams are in the top left, meaning teams who cannot generate explosive.
Plays but do prevent them. That's kind of important in talking about totals because like you can have a bad offense, but like you have some explosion and like you hit on two explosive plays and that kind of like Yeah, that's posts the man script. That's kind of unlikely in this spot. I think. I mean look, I, I get looking at the slate, I'm gonna end up, I think on the Texan and I know it's gonna be unpopular.
Yeah, it definitely will. Vikings is gonna be unpopular. Texans is gonna be unpopular, Rams is gonna be unpopular. As I'm saying it, like, of the, like, conviction, like, tiers, like, Rams has gotta be number one. Always a dangerous thing to say, but it's true.
What about Saints? Because we were talking about, we like Saints. I like Saints in an ult scenario too. Me too. That's probably what I'm gonna lean into. I think it's a fair price. I think it's a fair price. Well, because it's going to be one of those things where it's definitely not going to be popular again.
Like, the three and a halfs, unless it's a very powerful, potent team, people don't pick it. It's not a team I necessarily trust to cover margin.
I do like that Kamara's back. It should open up the offense at least a little bit because now they actually have like a playmaker in the backfield that can do things. Assuming he's rebounded from his downhill decline.
I think last like, so Raiders Chargers and Patriots Cowboys. We like patriots and I know like you're very anti patriots I feel like in general. So, where do you lean on that one? I think 6 1 2 is a little too much, like I'd probably make this line at like 5, 5 1 2.
But there are a lot of angles that I think this game gets out of hand. Like there's a huge, huge mismatch between the Cowboys defense and Patriots offense. Both in terms of the Patriots inability to separate against main coverage, which the Cowboys are gonna play.
Like the Cowboys corners have a huge advantage over the Patriots receivers. And then, Couple that with defensive line, offensive line mismatch. I'd be concerned about the Patriots ability to move the ball. How about some under, or all under them? What I don't love about that is these are the two fastest teams in the league.
We can just see a lot of play volume. And some like turnovers also. On either side, honestly. That kind of push it to, push it push it over. Also, do we know, is the Cowboys offensive line going to be healthier this game?
Yeah, Zack Martin's obviously important. I mean, the run game was great last week as it, as it were. But I think kind of the, the strength of the Patriots is gonna be their edge players, or the tackles matter more.
Yeah, from a fundamentals point of view, I agree the Patriots are some value. I just, when I think about that matchup, I... I can't back, I can't back the Cowboys, but I can't back the Rangers. Yeah, that's fair. What about Raiders Chargers? This is just, it like has all the feels of like a game that Chargers just somehow lose by three or like sneak out of there.
My gut tells me to like the Charger, but I don't. I definitely don't. Everything else, the drama I've been beating for weeks now about this Rarer's offense being pretty good, like, Jimmy Garoppolo practiced today, it looks like it should be him.
I assume Jimmy Garoppolo is coming back, practice today. Their offense is good. Full stop. The offense is good. It's a great matchup. They'll take advantage of the Chargers defense. And five and a half points is a lot if your, if your offense can, you know.
It's five and a half a lot versus just the Chargers too. We just have a very difficult time separating winning by margin. I think now it's like a function of the defense. Like, I think in past years, a lot of, I mean, the defense wasn't great, but A lot of times it was just this conservatism.
I'm less worried about the conservatism. I think the offense is going to like, keep scoring and keep remaining aggressive. Like that's a Kellan Moore thing, but this defense is so bad that any capable offense, frankly any non capable offense, the Titans are just gonna score on the Chargers.
Makes me like the Raiders. I feel like for contests, and this is just like a fundamental view, is like you can't like every play, like you gotta pick five games And so, to me, if it's too easy, right, like, for me Steelers, Oh, I love Steelers, because they're gonna get pressured a lot.
It's well, but CJ Stroud, but the market thinks. So, like, but this one's not easy. We don't, you don't want to take the Raiders. Like, what? I think there are Also, Steelers is gonna be a top five. Steelers is gonna be a top five pick. Yeah, I'm ready. Like, Steelers is minus two and a half. It's minus three.
In the market right now. So that's like a huge difference. The, the, the contest loves catching that, that half point off a key number. And the narrative is so strong on everything that you talked about. Zach. Yeah, you're right. It'll probably be the number one. Again, I don't, I don't know if that makes me want to take the Texans, but I think that makes me.
Like, not on. Yeah, and I know Brett, you've liked to use this in, in years past as some signal. I definitely wrote up the, as, as my like top alt play of the Texans. I think the Rams are my number one conviction play, but the Texans is the one that I wrote up as, as kind of my alt play.
I can kind of see it really backfiring. Like would have shocked me if, if they'd like, kind of narrative that everyone's just like trotting out there, the offensive line, da da da, like T. J. Wada's like six acts. Well, again, because there was like that, the Colts game, for instance, where like, they just couldn't hang.
Like they got, they got a little bit of separation, things went sideways and like, then they were just never in it. Yeah, I just, I don't trust the Pittsburgh's ability to actually generate offense. But one thing we did not talk with, and I'm curious as. The Chiefs. Yeah. So the chiefs are gonna get 30.
They do that every week. I don't care. You downgrade the jet defense. Come on. It's Mahomes. That's why they don't do that. Every week. They get 30 done that once this season. It's been, versus Bears. The Chiefs. The Chiefs will be in there. Wow. Red place scoring. There's, there's, there was nothing in that Bears Game that I saw that made me want to, which again, I unfortunately watched that game.
The Bears, like, put the Chiefs in, like, such magical positions. Obviously, the Chiefs still definitively demolished the Bears. See, the Bears defense looks like the worst in the NFL. And the Chiefs defense does look actually quite stingy.
It's very simple for me. First off, full stop. Broncos gotta be the worst defense in the league. But. Well, that's why I bet over 59 and a half in Bears Broncos. Because I think the Bears will be able to score in this game. Yeah, I think so too. Plus 520. That's a really fascinating one.
I think there are better ways of telling that. Game story, but I I don't hate the bet in concept. Here's the thing I mean look our disagreement now is relatively clear that you don't think that the Chiefs are going to be able to put up points. I don't think the Jets can score I think the Chiefs defense has actually been pretty solid and like in narratives that like Sackmelson's awful Just how many games of ten points are we gonna have question question.
Do we run it back? Do we run back the The stack of jets team total under Wilson under yards that whole old SGP. Oh, I definitely like that. Cause I think the chiefs defense. I mean, defense is good. Yeah. Yes. Yeah. But I think the chiefs are going to get close to four touchdowns.
I've got such a long history of this chiefs offense being good, figuring it out. We've got Travis Kelsey, a week healthier. I think if it does happen, it's, it's, it's for the same reasons of what happened in the bears game. Like where they have like short fields and, you know, kind of that's very much a product of playing Zach Wilson.
Sure. Sure. But I'm saying it's not because of the chief's offense though. I mean, we look at like, cause I understand what you've said before again. And I'm not trying to be like, like provocative for the sake of being provocative, trying to like fade the chief's office. I'm saying like, we've seen them stumble before in the past and be like, ah, you could see how they're going to get this right.
And you could still potentially see that happen this year because obviously they have the best quarterback in the NFL and one of the best coaches in the NFL, and a good offensive line, and a strong defense, so like, they're still a good team, and they're still going to be competitive and win games, but like, they could not move the ball on the Lions, they could not move the ball on the Jags, And they didn't have much to prove versus the Bears.
And so now they're going to play the Jets on the road, who, again, unless the Jets are not as good of a defense as advertised on EDP, they're still a top five defense. And maybe the offense, again, it's just one of those games where like The offense is just so bad that over time, eventually the defense just gets worn down and eventually gives up.
But like, this is not the game where I would necessarily want to be like, oh, here's where the Chiefs prove it.
And Chiefs are kind of buying their own hype after that Bears game. I don't know, there's a, there's a lot of like showboating and just ego strokes and you know, they know they're good.
They know that they could beat the bears 10 times. I don't know, like it flying to New York and thinking Zach Wilson sucks like everybody does. There's just no edge. There's no edge for the Chiefs in this game, especially offensively. If the Jets actually have a good defensive game plan.
That's why I like kind of this kind of under strategy, almost like the chiefs versus the Jags. A similar kind of game script. It just gets, maybe it's sloppy and it's a little, you know, not a lot's happening, but generally goes under and. Not a lot of production either way.
And also, Judah, like, I would challenge you on, on the, cause I know, so what you've said in the past is, like, you'll err on the side of believing that the Chiefs will get it right because they've always, cause that's always happened, and, for all the things I just talked about, like, great quarterback, great coach, blah, blah, blah.
And that eventually, like, that will demonstrate itself convincingly. And that's totally fair. But what I, what I would say is, like, there's been nothing so far shown this season to suggest, that, oh, now is the time to buy.
Here's how I'd flip this. Has there been anything to suggest there, like? Definitely not going to get back on this trajectory. No. But that's what I'm saying exactly, is that's where you stand, which is like, well, I'm not, I'm not, I'm not saying you should shift off that position that, oh, I want to err on the side of the fact that like, the Chiefs have to prove to me that they're not good or the offense is not good before I can lead back so that it's not good.
And I'm not saying that that is the case. What I'm saying is. We don't know that the offense is good in this game or anytime soon. To me, to me, it's, I think you framed it perfectly. The burden of proof is going to be like on the Chiefs to suck before I come off that. And I don't really care about the matchups because when it's the Chiefs, it doesn't matter who they're playing against.
I don't care about the Jets defensive line. When you're playing Patrick Mahomes, he doesn't take sacks. He just scrambles out of pressure. It doesn't matter. Defense is irrelevant to me. But so does Josh Allen. I mean, Josh Allen. You know, found his way into some turnovers, which also Mahomes doesn't really do.
Josh Allen does not have the same sack avoidance as Patrick Mahomes. We're talking about a difference of a 12 percent sack rate versus a 0 percent sack rate. That's true. Is it really 0%? He took 0 sacks in the regular season on 131 scrambles last year. It is the most mind boggling sack. That's pretty, that's pretty impressive.
Yeah, that's pretty good. So, Mahomes, the god of... No sack.
But at the same time, the way we actually ended up at that handicap was that... We didn't, we didn't want to bet the Jets, basically, just because one of the things we've talked about, and Judah and you and I have talked about this in the past as well, is like, when you're trying to make these picks, especially going to pick a heavy underdog, it's like, do you see a scenario where that team can win outright, and potentially even, even a potential scenario where that team can blow them out, and it's like, The Jets window of covering this is so narrow because you're basically saying oh, best case scenario, maybe the Jets lose by three.
So basically you have a six point window and you have to hit that six point window.
Yeah. I mean, I mean really the only cover I see for the Jets is they get, you know, early turnover type lead and they just try to milk the clock out until Chiefs come back and win by six.
Is that not an extremely revealing sentence? The only cover I see is an odd game script. No, I agree, but it doesn't mean, it doesn't mean I'm comfortable backing the Chiefs in this spot. Okay, so this gets back to your earlier point about, you're not going to be comfortable, but I'd much rather bet this.
That is true. When it's, when it's, the only way I don't see this covering is a weird game script versus like, Ah, I don't know, that there's some kind of like, it's totally different. I, I, I, I, I misspoke. I, I, there is two. So that's the, that's the main one I think most realistic of the Jets we're going to cover.
The second is. What I said earlier, which is just a sloppy Jags type KC performance where it's just sloppy on offense both ways which that's basically how the chiefs offense has played so far this season absent the bears game, but demonstrates proves nothing.
So it's like, just imagine like, just ignore the bears game. Say it's just, it's just the, it's the Lions game, and then there's the Jags game, and now they're nine point road favorites versus the Jets. And, and let's put Rodgers back in the lineup. What's the line, and what side do you lean if, if Rogers is in it?
I mean, there's, there's so much unknown. Yeah, that's so, this is probably, it's probably Jets minus. The preseason for the Jets and the first three weeks of the regular season for the Chiefs, this line would be Jets Chiefs minus 2.
5.
And, and The preseason line was Chiefs minus 2. 5? No, no, no, no, no, no, I'm saying like, given what we know about the Chiefs, And what we would have expected from the Jets preseason. If Rodgers was playing in this spot, how would you guys feel about this game, at that two line?
I would definitely take the Jets. I would definitely take them. I'd be levered up on the Chiefs.
I would take Rodgers in this spot. Because of what we've seen, we just haven't seen enough from Casey's offense, I don't know, to feel comfortable with that. We're not going to see a lot more of those 17, 20 point games than we thought we would have coming into the season.
Again, the Chiefs could potentially still cover the nine and a half. I like what you're talking about, Zach, with potentially like doing a redo of unders on various Jets offensive props. Because this is going to be a tougher defense than they played versus the Patriots.
And they couldn't do anything versus the Patriots. When Bill, Bill, Bill owns Wilson. I mean, he knows exactly how to play him. I think, I mean, Andy and Co have to be like sharp enough to figure out what. Bill's doing. I also have an a an alt angle on this too. Judah I want your quick opinion, Is there a world that zach wilson now knows officially officially with the signing of trevor simian that like?
His time is running out like Like, he's, he's about to be done if he doesn't kind of just say fuck it, roll the dice, gun sling it, if there's one time this season where he's gotta say fuck it, Taylor Swift is here, it doesn't matter.
I gotta just chuck the ball to Wilson on one on one down the field, like whatever he's gotta do to give him the best variance to be successful. Would be this game or does he just melt just like he always does.
He has a brain he knew before they signed Trevor Simeon This was his last hope like this is not the last but now but now it's like it's official like this is like you if You play was it was official before but if we want to do But if he doesn't play horrible, and somehow, let's say, the Jets beat the Chiefs, right?
Then it buys him a couple more weeks to figure it out, right?
It's an interesting conversation that I think will fill up a lot of time on ESPN or something. But like, What, what I, I would say I would err on the side of him still melting.
Yeah. Because I don't think he processes information well under pressure. So a good example of is like near the end game scenario in Patriot's Jets, like fourth and ten, you need to be aggressive. And in the moment his reaction is to dump the pass off, which essentially just ends the game.
And he doesn't try to light it up. Like just fucking throw a bomb and hope you get a pass interference. But you dump it off, the game is over. It's over. Yeah, that's a good point.
That was zappy. All right, this was a good run through best bet of the day. Definitely Lions plus three and a half. I think Lions, Money Lion right away.
Although again, like the Packers plus 18 and a half plus 19 and a half not too bad. Nice long four and a half hour stream.
I can feel it already in my, in my throat. It's like nighttime voices. Alrighty. We'll see you next time. That's closing bell.
