2022 NFL Week 1 Betting Market Outlook | cautious on Rams, Giants upside, Chargers rock, Texans surprise, fading Jags and Lions steam

September 08, 2022 01:09:10
2022 NFL Week 1 Betting Market Outlook | cautious on Rams, Giants upside, Chargers rock, Texans surprise, fading Jags and Lions steam
Alpha Bets
2022 NFL Week 1 Betting Market Outlook | cautious on Rams, Giants upside, Chargers rock, Texans surprise, fading Jags and Lions steam

Sep 08 2022 | 01:09:10

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Show Notes

Brett, Judah, and Zach pontificate on NFL Week 1, isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions and Survivor contests. A lot of disagreement, but are generally cautious on Rams, see Giants upside v. Titans, betting on Texans to surprise v. Colts, expect Chargers to exploit the Raiders, and are fading Jags and Lions steam. Ravens will likely be the core allocation for survivor strategies, but Joe Flacco is a notable wrinkle that makes Brett and Zach a bit nervous. 

Hear about this and more from betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @contextcapper on the 2022 NFL betting market outlook for Week 1.

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Episode Transcript

All right. It's week one. Can't believe it's already September 7th. Season's about to kick off tomorrow. Uh, and so we're about to go through the slate. Talk about every single game and provide our insights. Let's start off with the Bills at the Rams, super bowl, champs underdogs at home verse, the consensus number one team to win the super bowl in 2022. I'm decisively on the Rams side. I was asking you Judah yesterday, like, have you seen a three pop up yet? And I saw someone post on Twitter earlier today that a three did pop up. Um, how do you guys feel about this? Know, I I was on Buffalo for a while and I kind of, you know, as, as I did more research about both teams and, and the situation I started to actually kind of think, wait a second, you know, the Rams are not really getting much respect because of the assumption of the super bowl hangover and all that other stuff, but it's still Sean McVay. They're still very well coached. They still have Matthew Stafford. So. The way I'm looking at it is Buffalo. To your point is the most overhyped team coming into this season. Everyone's assuming they're gonna win the super bowl, including me. I, I, I have some futures on them, so to check my own bias, um, I actually think this is a great spot for the Rams. You know, you know, Donald's gonna be great. Ramsey will take digs outta the game. So Gabriel Davis is gonna have to step up. And so, I don't know, like I, I, and without dabble, they're probably gonna run the ball more. So they're not gonna be as explosive on offense in this game. I think you're gonna see more runs up the middle and early downs and the explosive Bills putting up 35 points may not actually even happen. And so if that doesn't happen, you're looking at a 24-27 type game. And if it's close like that, I mean, the Rams, if you can get, plus three seems like at worse, you're gonna get a push. So, and also just as a disclaimer to our audience, uh, when you're listening to Zach, he doesn't know what he's talking about. but no, uh, how I think Judah and I can heed your advice and insights and views over the course of the season is one, you know, you're not gonna be as granular and as detailed and kind of watching every single game like you used to in the past seasons. Um, I think we were joking offline that you're the anti Sharp Clarke. You don't watch any snaps. Uh, so when you provide your narratives, I think Judah and I will have to balance between it's either gonna be like this, like super square, just like market consensus view. Yeah. Or this broader kind of macro insight. That's not getting distracted by the week to week, you know, bullshit. Uh, as you know, Jud and I have been going through each of our division preseason previews, I mean, that's been one of our huge takeaways is like, don't get caught in the

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