Episode Transcript
Welcome, Kings, to the Sunday Night Tilt: where we offer our fresh emotional takes on what just happened and walk through the slate for week two. I have our SporfolioKings NFL Opening Bell weekly newsletter on the screen, that we send out every Sunday morning. We talk a little bit about broader market positioning. Highlight some of the biggest line movers and what's driving some of those movements.
We'll give out one of our favorite trading ideas. For this week, we refocused on one of our favorite off season trades, which was Raiders alt wins under seven and a half. But we'll focus on one of our favorite trades of the day in that piece.
Highlighting some of Our Circa picks here, Chargers, Giants, Eagles, Texans, Chiefs.
In our second entry, we also had the Bears and the Commanders in there as well. So pretty successful week one. Our Survivor plays made it through it. We chose the Ravens. About 33% of the Survivor pool, out, as of Week 1, which feels so good. Especially vis-a-vis last year when more than half of the pool was still alive through week eight, week nine, as those heavy favorites just kept winning.
So it feels so good to get this. And also Judah specifically, you calling out to avoid the Niners. So that saved us. That was huge. The fact that we just didn't even flirt with a lot of these names that went down. So our top three picks we were really thinking about was Ravens, Broncos, and then late there, Zach threw in Eagles.
So we made it through. On to the next week. And also starting off very strong from that Circa Millions perspective, 4-1 and 4-1. So a strong start there. I was actually lamenting a little bit offline about how so many of our handicaps this week were right down the middle.
I really wish that we would've been able to fully capitalize on that intelligence and go 5-0 this week, rather than just a 4-1. But nonetheless still very strong. And the Eagles were winning by double digits for most of the game. End up not covering by only a point. And it was something that we saw the writing on the wall.
One of the things that you even mentioned in our week one preview, which was, we're always looking for opportunities to leverage alt lines and try to capitalize on some mispricings in the market and on the volatility that we know is rampant in this. But one of the places that you did not want to leverage into volatility was the Eagles.
And that was because of the Lion's propensity to come back during garbage time. That's their M.O.
And they get that classic backdoor cover. We're never really com competitive in the game. At the very beginning, they took that seven zero lead. And that's one of the things as you see at the bottom of the screen, some of the things I wanna talk about as well, Is certainly please join us. I know we haven't really advertised it very much at all.
But what we're gonna be doing most Sundays this season is live betting and streaming ourselves live betting, coming up with ideas and putting our ideas into action and putting it into practice throughout the week and seeing how we change our thesis as the game continues to play out.
And again, making bet live. So you can see how we're managing our bank roles and managing some of those positions that we put on pre-game. And we tested that today and it was extremely successful. So you can see all the trades that we made Moving across the bottom of the screen there.
And for those on the pod, we started off the week leveraging to Texans and giants. We bet their spreads, we bet their money lines. We started leaning into Falcons. We leaned into Browns. We bet the Eagles minus two and a half, which turned out to be extremely important to do when they went down seven zip to the lions, trying to take advantage of that, got their money line around minus one 30, started betting the Colts once they started losing. We bet the giants plus 17. We bet the chargers. We had exposure to the chiefs. We bet the Jags at plus nine and a half plus 10 and a half. So many winning trade. Pretty much, the only time that we went awry was when you jumped off stream and it was just me solo trying to catch a falling knife with the Packers, be the three and a half.
And the four thinking that, there was a pass that went through Christian Watson's hands. That was like a perfect dime by Aaron Rogers, a couple other decent drives that they had put together that just didn't materialize into points. And then knowing you're still going against Kirk Cousins.
And the Packer's secondary has been nothing but raved about all off season thinking that, maybe that starts to show itself a little bit. And you still have Aaron Rogers on your side, regardless of the lack of talent at wide receiver, but nonetheless. That was a losing trade. So boom.
That was three nasty losses there. So it took off a little bit of the positive PNL that we did over the course of that live stream. But that live stream netted plus nine units. So a successful first attempt definitely looking forward to doing it at again next week.
I thoroughly enjoyed the stream. You see as you talk out your own process, as opposed to actually just like getting
it, yeah. Cuz betters always have this revisionist history of themselves in how they thought about a game or how they were thinking as something was transpiring.
Oh, I knew that was gonna happen. Oh, I knew they were gonna come back. And how much money did you make? Oh, I didn't, and it's it's all about like how much money did you make? Did you actually put that opinion into action then?
Did you express that view in a trade? And that's what? I think what makes this stream so cool is we're making snap decisions. We're having a plan, pregame seeing how things play out and then when those things start to play out, then actually having the. Know the Moxi to actually execute it's.
Cause it can be very difficult when you say, oh, I think if the COLS go down by 10 I'm gonna hammer the COLS, but then you see the COLS are down like 20 to three and you're like, eh, maybe they final.
Yeah. That's the important thing. It's a very fine line between coming in with a plan and also then adjusting to the information that's coming in.
Which is you're gonna be totally overwhelmed if you're just like no idea what you're betting before the week, but if you have a range and you let the games play out and that guide your betting. I bet the Houston alternate spread minus five with the very intention of grabbing the other side at some point.
And then it's like a matter of timing and you gotta adapt to the information. I did an okay job and do as well. The job I could and it's very fine line. And I think that's mastering the craft.
You need to balance being patient and not doing something too quickly.
I think me with the Packers again. I didn't even really get that much value off the closing line, which was, packer is plus one, I think it ended or maybe even plus two. So I got the three and a half and the four.
So it's pass the key number. Great. But if this if the whole game plan doesn't materialize as expected, that's not that meaningful of extra value that you have there. Yeah. Again, when we're getting Colts plus 10 Jags plus 10 Panthers, plus 10, that's a meaningful difference that says this game script can be completely different and you can still win your vet.
And I think what's gonna be really interesting too, is, Judi, if you do this is to go back and look at and see how you are talking about how that Texans Colts game was playing out. Cause you were articulating.
Ah, maybe I should take the five and a half or maybe I should wait till seven and a half or maybe 10 and a half or now it's plus 500. Ah, like maybe I shouldn't, and but definitely applaud you in the fact that you were very patient. You didn't try to catch that falling night and then waited for it to rebound show a little bit of life first.
Yeah. Before then capturing that, that positive P and L yeah.
Again, we'll be doing that again next week. If anyone has any questions or anyone wants to jump on Dan was on live with us. Our June was on there for a little bit as well, chatting with us. So encourage anyone to jump on and get involved in discussion trade, right along with us.
Give us some good ideas.
Okay. So let's quickly go through some of the games. Just first impressions, what were some of your takeaways from this week that you think maybe went according to plan?
Didn't go according to plan. and I know this is Sunday night and that's the whole point of this is media. Haven't really had a sufficient amount of time to really reflect on what has happened. We haven't dived into the numbers. There's really not a lot of data to go off yet.
So with a grain of salt, with an asterisk, but what are some of those takeaways? So here there
a bunch of angles for certain teams where you mean or average range of outcome I thought would go a certain way, for instance, the Falcon, right?
I think at the end of the day, they're probably like a five or six men team. But in my head there was an angle of, okay, Arthur Smith is a really good play designer, marks Mariota, combined with Arthur Smith can produce some counter results. And I don't know if the Falcons are gonna win seven games or games, but they're gonna be competitive.
And I think this game said more about the Falcons than it did the saints and maybe kudos did the saints for coming back that like when Ja needs to throw, maybe the saints can win. But the Falcons are not going to be the pushover team that everyone thought they were.
I also think the designers again, similar idea about mean range backs. If you ask me before the season, I'd say that the Niners are probably the playoff team, but there is a range of outcome.
And again. I'm not gonna overreact and say, this is the definitive outlook, but there's a real range of outcomes that trade lands is not that good. And that he's slow to develop. And it's the same reason why we've talked off survivor which is saying that like the Niners are the, at this point in the season will be the worst time.
Cause we really don't know what trail lands is gonna be. And there is a PO genuine possibility. That's not a great NFL quarterback.
Just say it that he possibly suck. He
sucks. He could I have no idea.
He's shown nothing so far outside of pre-season he's shown no
flash so far here.
Two things working in his favor. Everyone loves Kyle Shahan and everyone loves to get a good fantasy running quarterback. What bothers me about trade Lance? First off, I not so sold on Shahan, but he's not a good runner. He's fast, but he's not a good runner.
He's big but that doesn't make you a good runner.
This was a miserable weather game. So a lot of, weird variables at play.
It didn't look like Lance was very comfortable out there.
But the key point is to hone in that when you're viewing something, you've gotta view kind of the distribution and you've gotta view tales and you've gotta be able to play into certain angles and recognize when those are happening. mentioned on the stream that like the bears right in the back of my mind, as that was going through was like, My aunt might not be able to score again.
And who's to say that field, can't put together one more driving. They're gonna win the game 14 set.
Yeah. We ended up taking the bears plus seven in circa, so yep. I think we actually did learn a lot. I think sometimes, we maybe would chat with one another and say how valuable are these preseason previews that we're doing? Like we're spending a lot of time on it.
But I thought actually they, it put us in such a great place. Cause I feel like I keep referring back. To something that we talked about, or we said, or an observation that we made and one of those kind of key visuals that ties back to why we did do something or why we didn't do something specifically this week that has already paid dividends.
Yeah. It's certainly gonna be true in week one where I think the market really is meaningless. If you have a conviction on a team, the market's not gonna be catching up to it yet. And you've got a long time to develop that thesis.
So it's certainly true and we've gone, but I think it's always gonna be true, but just like the idea, the fundamental idea that you have about a team developed over the course of months and months is probably going to be both better and also less prone to your biases of whatever happened recently.
Whatever thing you read. And like when you're in the thick of the season. And you can evaluate change from a better perspective from, actually
understanding what you said initially.
My main takeaway so far from this set of games is first halfs and second halfs. we don't wanna overreact to a lot of these teams. And one of the main reasons why is because we saw first half duds by a lot of teams that then put themselves in holes and then they dug themselves out of that hole and just start it slow it's week one.
And maybe you just need to just accept that for what it was, and maybe evaluate some of these teams a little bit more so off on their second halfs. And if that's the case, the Texans actually didn't look that good. They didn't do anything. That's why I just saw getting more and more nervous.
Jesus, this is all fallen apart.
well, I saw meaning to me it was, I was looking at the drive when they were down 23 and the down, and I said this is it.
They start to score and they move the ball. It's okay, the Texans kinda get into a little bit of a panic mode. And that's exactly what happened. I've seen this game play out so many times. But E even just this week was a great reminder, not even the randomness of what could happen from pregame to the actual game being played right.
Where it's oh, it's so unexpected that nine beat theirs. I might even talking about that. I'm just saying like that ed McPherson, that steadiest of kickers, other than Justin Tucker, it's gonna miss an extra point and at a 27 yard fuel goal.
And there's just so much built in variance.
Going into again, the first half or second half discrepancy of performance, Same thing with the saints. Saints started off super slow, looked real bad down 16 to seven, maybe even deeper. I think even a deeper hole than that. Cuz we live traded, got saints plus three and a half plus six got all the way up to plus 13 and a half.
And at that point in time had already gotten a sufficient amount of saints exposure and it was like, all right, I've had my fill. Like I don't have any confidence that they're gonna be able to come back cause they haven't shown the ability to do anything. That's why I think our dream was even in the chance saying like James can't possibly be this bad.
Can he. And in the second and half, they started to put it together and started to demonstrate and showcase a little bit more of what we thought they were more capable of doing. So saints come raging back. Falcons didn't really do much in the second half. They were outscore 20 to 10 bears looked crappy in the first half, looked miserable again, Niners didn't look good at all either, but at least the bears showed a little bit of life there.
Then in the second half. Same thing with Jas and commanders. Commanders were wiping the floor with them the first half and then Jas stormed back, started really showing a lot of life. And that's one of the reasons why we leveraged into Jas plus nine and a half plus 10 and a half even took their money line that plus six 50. Browns, Panthers, all Browns in the first half Panthers show some life in the second half.
This was like an, a plus week for trading football games. Yeah. There was so much kind of volatility in the game that if you wanted to buy the dip on a team, you were pretty much rewarded this week. Yeah. Unless it was the Patriots
yeah. Yeah. Or at some point you had the opportunity. Even like you could have gotten both sides of plus money, multiple occasions in some instances at huge numbers, right? Like the Jaguars or the giants, or I guess if not the Cardinals also they got
trans.
I barely even watched chiefs Cardinals one because I didn't think there was gonna be anything meaningful to take away from this game. Really, no matter what happened from it. Yeah. That's what implied in, in the opening is I see some people pounding the table on the chiefs now saying, knew the chiefs didn't need Tyre kill.
Exactly which tweet you're referring to. Yeah.
I'm just saying like this, but there's cause there's tons of people out there who think the chiefs don't need Tyre kill. And that it's comp it's immaterial to, if you, the forward movement of their offense and I'm not saying, and I never implied that it's gonna be this huge obstacle, Patrick Mahomes and the Andy Reid relationship as you've talked about is by far the most important variable.
And that's still there.
First understanding being able to factor and level what really matters. Like those two are always going to the most important thing as they're highlighting. The second thing is the chiefs kind of played the expectation.
Okay. I don't care if it was 44 or whether it was 29, 13 or 44, 21. You asked me before the slate, what? My highest conviction, who I thought was most likely to win. I said the chiefs, I bet. I bet everything chiefs. This was not unexpected. It was not a above, over expected performance where it's okay, I'm ready to be like, okay, fine.
Who the chiefs up? No, like this was built in nothing
changed. Yeah. So you wouldn't upgrade the chiefs this week. No, they're not any better than you felt that they were exactly
the fact that the final score says 44 21. Is totally meaningless to me.
Like you need to see some, like the Falcon will perform expectations, that is a team that like you have to immediately look at them and say, okay, they're not a dumpster fire, at least not right now. As long as things stay
stable,
one of the games that didn't have volatility, which is the Packers and Vikings as well.
Again, dug myself a grave with the Packers. And the Packers downside scenario of what we thought could happen is what happened. Yeah. Today,
which by the way happens last year, week one too.
Yeah. But I think that was still under different circumstances.
I don't, this is the feeling I had just like I'm staying off no matter what happens. Yes. You were.
They were just like way too many weird variables going on. Yep. And also by the way, like the giants didn't show anything particularly great there either, even when
they won. And that was another game of tale. Two Hals. Yeah, absolutely. Really didn't show anything the first half. It was just classic giants, classic Daniel Jones, I hate having to watch the giants. I have an interest in the game and it's just so painful. It's not even worth money.
Yeah, I hear.
I think it was all, I don't even know if it was analytically sound decision for Brian Day to go for two, but the parallel between Brian D and what Joe judge was and the, what that sent giants found. So I thought was.
Yeah, but I don't like though is what you're telling me about how they were trying to use Kaaris Tony though.
Tony.
Yeah. That was a disaster. They just did not give him any snaps even when Juan Robinson went down. But like kid's time is clearly the best receiver. I'm not exactly sure why they're not giving
him any run.
Instead James got a bunch of targets
IIE there's another thing that I was thinking about with the giants, which is something we've talked about, which when people talk about analytics in a vacuum and like going for forth down as if it's just like some mathematical formula to plug in and I was thinking about the giants going for two.
And so I realized wait a second, these guys actually know how to design plays. It's not Jason Garrett running, a two punk conversion play. And they designed the, something clearly learned from the chiefs to like, get the ball to barky in space. And it worked wonderfully. And its like, it's not just that they're going for it.
It's that like actually they're dialing up the right place when they're doing for it. And it's not just okay, pass it checks the box 2.3% when probability added
Yeah, I like that. That's a great observation. I think a lot of games played out this week, along the lines of how we were positioning along around these teams from a longer term kind of season win total. Perspective as well. So we're heavy into Titans under we talked about how the giants were likely being mispriced, just because, you had a team like the dolphins and there was a bunch of uncertainty, but they aired on the side of optimism.
There's a bunch of uncertainty with the giants and they aired on the side of pessimism. And while I agree, I don't think that necessarily the giants showed me a lot in this game. It was more or less. Maybe there's gonna be a little bit more creative play calling. It's gonna be a little bit more aggressive play calling, but there's still some of the same kind of bone heads on this team.
It's just you could almost count on in your handicap. Daniel Jones will be in a position to move the giants meaningfully forward. and he will self implode and he will have at least one sack fumble, like yeah.
Anything else that you wanna touch on from this past week?
Steelers Bengals? That was a crazy one kind of going back and forth. We didn't have any exposure to this game. But I would say that this was one that was a little bit surprising to how maybe we forecasted it.
Joe ber throwing four picks tea Higgins went down, so that's meaningful. Yeah, the
concussion.
So I'll be back, but it's still playing the game
with
him.
But the Steelers defense. Playing admirably and exploiting weakness when it was available. Although TJ won did get hurt, which is big. Yeah. And maybe what we can do from this is, the narrative around the Steelers has now been reinforced.
Yeah. And now people are really gonna grab onto it.
If you think that's true and we'll see what the prices say, true. Sell frees out, it extremes out, this is an outlier game. And I think their offense showed that they've got a long way to go if they wanna be successful, but they could not get any offense going until overtime.
Nothing. It's not like the manuals are bills. Aren't a bad defense, but they stretch, but they're not good. They're totally average. If the market's gonna elevate this saying, okay, the Steelers are still gonna be the Steelers and they're gonna get for banking on five turnovers a game. I don't think so.
Although the one thing that asterisk we always have about the Bengals that we always need to continue to take into consideration as much as is as enamored as we wanna be with the talent on the field, Joe burrow and the potential offensive explosiveness.
There's still Zach Taylor and he's the weak link that can bring it all down.
All right, let's go to next week.
Give our first impressions here very early week two.
Vikings at Eagles,
Eagles three plus 100. I feel like the Vikings packer is something I wanna take a little bit more close. Look at specifically to see. Do I see anything meaningful from the way the offense decision making play calling that there was a material distinction with the new head coach. From what I'm reading, it seems to imply that is the case, but I'd like to see it for myself. Yeah. But if that is the case, then Vikings does look initially attractive. Yeah.
Yeah, absolutely. I think there's almost to built an expectation of the Eagles having a good defense. They made a bunch of moves.
George Davis, Dr. Johnson I'd be selling that especially if we're seeing some kind of schematic changes
in Minnesota
Titans at bills. Bills nine and a half. Having that 10 days rest.
I'm just surprised that the market has really, or maybe they've upgraded the bills a lot, but what was the line for the Monday night football game? Titans bills last year? Which Titans one. Oh,
that was like a
field max field role.
Regardless of how the market feels about. How do you feel about this? Cause you clearly think the bills are the best team in the league. And I don't think you saw anything in that game to suggest that might be wrong.
Yeah. I dunno if best team in the league. Yeah. You don't think that who's the best team in the league.
I think I will have an bitter answer by week six, which of the chargers chiefs or bills
are
the best team? The league chargers did nothing today to me, just so that they would no no. I think the chargers, their
defense is gonna take time though.
That's what I think the key element is the offense is gonna be with the offense is gonna be, and I think the defense will, as the season goes along, get a lot stronger, has to get more comfortable in his daily system with new personnel.
They didn't lose this game. So it's almost gets forgotten about, but some questionable four pound calls that didn't go their way.
And again, it gets swept under the rug because they didn't lose loose. Yeah. But they're are two point away from this being a lot more interesting . And
they like really had the game in control and trust got very conservative.
Which was part of the handicap. Yep. Yep. Yes, absolutely.
That might not be something that's changing. Yeah.
I would say at this point in time, the chargers look like the 20, 21, like the same thing.
Same short decision making, same play calling with better defense with a little bit of better defense. There were better players on the field and they didn't get absolutely shredded on the ground. Sure. But they didn't necessarily get shred on the single they
SED our car five times.
But that, we also know that the Raiders and the Raiders, the
worst often lines it's hard to place.
I think that's more Raiders, more we talking about, we think that the Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL and they played head to head with the chargers.
I agree with you. I agree with you. I'm not upgrading. I'm certainly not upgrading the chargers after that game. Are you upgrading the Raiders?
There's nothing that we knew. Devonte Adams entire car was gonna be their. Yeah. And nothing really changes there. I dunno you fix your offense line issues maybe.
But again, it's played into kind of broader range of outcomes towards the kind of mean percentile
all bays at Packers eight. Obviously the bears have to be being upgraded by the market and the Packers certainly have to be being downgraded upgrade. Yeah.
It's time to buy the dip on the Packers. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. I think the Packers and bill seem like very tea lines
to me. So we talked about Eagles Vikings at three Bill's times at nine and a half Packers bears at eight.
Do you think any of these lines are gonna move? And do you think we should bet any of these right now?
I could see the line moving from three to two and a half on the Eagles that Eagles fuckings.
Yeah. And it's so it's juice so much right now that it's that's oh, I didn't even see that an alternative.
Okay. Yeah,
Yeah. So that's gonna, that's probably gonna make better to two and a half. Yeah.
I think if Packers moves to seven that's viable, that might even be contest playable
That could be a, an T line special there. Absolutely. Yeah. Just like pack's offense gets right. Bears offense. Can't score huge potential for a blow out there.
Yep. In Lambo again, as you mentioned on Sunday night football. Yeah. That's
that? I'm sniffing a 13 and a
half
Cardinals at Raiders.
I like the Cardinals a lot here.
Oh yeah,
for sure. This is the other thing I actually wanted to say. Just that now's also a fine time to look at futures again. The NFC west is wide open based on week one.
And I've got a good, long term view on the Cardinals. I don't think today meant anything, knew the chief, the future were gonna seem roll them when the Cardinals had none of their defensive players and are still missing Hopkins. Like I think it's a good spot to buy NFC west. But I like this at three and a half for all the reasons we discussed this off season.
And I think the Cardinals are a pretty good team and certainly a cable
offense. Yeah. Do you think the three and a halfs viable now, does this move down to three? Hey, bullish on the Raiders. That's true. I think they
see, I think they see
yeah, it wasn't anything to dissuade them from that this week.
Yeah. Certainly
the results are not dissuading you Like it would be going in the opposite direction. But we'll see again, depends on injuries for the
Cardinals. I think.
Falcons at Rams.
Plus 11.
I'm feeling I'm gonna like the Falcon team total. I'm gonna, I'm not ready to jump off the Rams offense and that train just yet, but I'm ready to, I'm ready to buy a Falcon's offense if they're still being priced at the bottom.
A bottom tier one
This is why I think we, we did so well in week one. Because so many of our preseason these started to play out even here in week one, which is one of the reasons why I'm not downgrading the Rams and all the Rams play generally in line with the variability that I assigned through the Rams.
Also with the Falcons, especially in the second half, what I'd be cautious of, and one of the reasons I wanna dive a little bit more into that game as well is they didn't really do much in the second half, especially in the fourth quarter. And just let the saints come roaring back ,
which I think also reflects on coaching a lot.
It's that's something you. You don't see the best teams give up, let down, you know it's coming. The Falcons are gonna Falcons as opposed to just we're keeping our foot on the gas and we're going, yeah. Like we're just gonna keep scaring
points.
I wouldn't be surprised if this line moves a little closer to 10.
I would be surprised by that. I would say, yeah, especially based off what you've said, that, you saw some of those more pre-season lines around that two touchdown.
I wouldn't be surprised. If it starts to kinda trickle its way closer to that. Like you have this knee jerk reaction from this , unless there's something underneath again with the elbow thing that we're not hearing about from staff or, yeah. No, I
actually, I think you're right.
I
think you're right. Like I'd rather bet Rams here and see what happens rather than lean into the Falcons and expect a lot of this hopium to continue to yeah. Increase. I would love to hear actually what Joe thinks about this gang Falcons. He was high on the Rams and high on the Falcons.
Yeah. Not just two foolish species are butting heads.
That's right. Yeah. Again, I'll stick with my initial take here. I have a feeling like the Falcons team total.
Panthers at the giants Panthers plus two and a half. All right. See, now this seems like one I wanna take. Yep.
You wanna, you think we should bet that one? Yep.
I wanna see, can get it. I, this is gonna close three. I think this close one or pick,
I think the Panthers showed me a lot more resilience. Again, some bone head penalties near the end is what even allowed for the Browns to kick, a 55 yard field goal to win the game with a few seconds remaining. Yeah. And a lot of things had to go to the giants way as well for them to kinda pull that out.
I think that was the Titan. Sell Mar wants the giants by, and also this match is terrible for the giants, this plays right into the the Panthers, but the giants can't cover. We'll see if they have any past rush, we'll see if TDU Tido and are back.
And like the giants are not gonna be able to move the ball consistently against Carolina. The exact Carolina's exactly the defense where Daniel Jones is gonna, you probably to make more mistakes, right? You can build in like one, this is exactly the defense I've taken advantage, short fields
and the Panthers with baker Mayfield and those rider receivers.
This is something that you think is only gonna get kind better over the course of the season and that this was like a very raw performance and also an emotional performance as well. Yeah. Now you get, this is behind you. It's done and over. Now you can move on and move forward without that kind of distraction.
Yeah. Like the Panthers there plus two and a half. So that would be our, one of our first bets here on Sunday night, reduced juice two minus 1 0 5.
Colts on the road at the Jags plus four.
I really liked the way the Jags performed in the second half. They didn't ended up winning the game. A typical fashion, what you kind would think from a young team with a young quarterback. , they just didn't have enough. No, to get it over the finish line.
Yeah. We were handling this during the game, a lot of missed opportunities. Drop touchdowns. Yeah.
Poor execution. I don't see it moving.
So much market love for the Jags though. I market love with the cults.
I think if anything, this moves towards the cult.
Really? I'd leave it. Yeah. So what do you think this closes five and a half closer, closer to six than
three.
I don't see that. I dunno. I'm certainly not. Cause even the bulls on the cults are like, what are you're not doing any victory lap after that performance. One of the things that I was talking about so much in the preseason and even on our week one preview is this team is overrated offensive line, overrated, Matt Ryan's overrated. The play callings overrated.
And it just showcased itself beautifully in that Texans game, because I wouldn't upgrade the Texans after that game. We talked about, we think that the Texans are better than the four and a half wins that the projected that anyway. Yeah. I feel like we've been ahead of the curve on a lot of these teams and, but the market will be catching up now and they're adjusting their power rankings, but we're really, not right.
Yeah. I also wouldn't bet for here. I would pet the money line
I thinking this closes more three. Maybe three and a half.
I don't think the market's getting ready to solve the polls. I think it's gonna take one more week.
Could be right.
Commanders at Detroit. Washington plus one and a half.
I would think this would be again closer to pick.
I'm seeing minus two on draftings.
So squares are already pounding lions.
Yeah. I don't know how you can back the lines here.
No I don't wanna bet the lion's favorites ever this season. Yeah.
I like Washington here. I think Washington should be minus one and a half. It's not that big of a difference, but yeah,
like you're gonna be in for the Carson lunch ride, but I'll take that over the lion game. Favorite, right?
This go ride
this guy. No, just not the same hair. He's not gonna, throw two bone head interceptions and then a 70 yard bone. But the market, I guess really is pricing Washington as like a five when
16 teams.
I think you're right there. Yeah. And that's why there could be continued to be opportunity at Washington market hates Washington.
Yeah. No I like Washington here. I think the defense is the 2020 version is more indicative of the 20, 21 version. For the 22 team. Yes. Yes. And like the lion are not prepared to take advantage of that.
Jets on the road at Cleveland currently priced plus six, reduced juice, not touching that.
I just like I think the market seeing an upgrade on Cleveland's defense and like the flag was terrible. It's terrible. Yeah, I'm surprised this line's not four and a half. But I think that's probably appropriately priced.
Yeah,
I don't wanna touch this one and I pun on a lot of games. I think I wanna punt on this one. This is just absolutely. I don't wanna be Betten. The Browns mines, a touchdown jets are still in the NFL team. Jets made the Ravens look pretty crappy. I don't know as much as if it was just more Ravens, again, Ravens eventually pulled away as any professional organization with certainly viable enough quarterback and great head coaching staff should do.
But they hung around with the jets for way too long.
This is also a good segue into the next game, but I think number one, the Ravens are really lacking offensive talent. The central question for the Ravens was are they trying to run back the 2019 team and like how much of that team can they replicate?
All of a sudden, like they're offer line Ryan, Stanley's not playing Jacob dins and GU Edwards are implying and we're like, we're back to 2021. This is kinda the same team as last year. And so long as the injuries keep them to the 20, 21 version of the team.
It's they're massive question marks and on offense.
And nothing to note is like Lamar Jackson didn't run today. For whatever reason, if that,
for whatever reason, I'm articulating why that could be the case. If,
If it's his contract, if it's whatever it is, if that's gonna continue then, that takes away his whole game.
What's the Raven's offense, which is a perfect segue to say. I really
like the dolphin. Yeah.
And again, just to make clear, too, my view on the hold Lamar Jackson contract performance dynamic is I don't think that he's not gonna run or anything like that. It's more about I think he very much is considering is this in my best interest, from a longer term perspective. And it just all, I mean is that will find its way here and there, where could be very important moments that build up over the course of a season. Not that he's gonna be like Uber conservative, every single game, not gonna run , he's definitely still gonna do those types of things. But the thing is you have to do it very instinctually yeah. For it to work.
And if you give it any second thought, or if you're trying to program yourself to maybe not do it in certain situations or be a little bit less aggressive, then it all collapses on. And those are just the types of wrinkles that make me hesitant to bet the Ravens until I see different.
And to your point, there's nothing in that Raven's jet game to suggest that thesis isn't gonna continue.
I do wonder how much of the Ravens game plan, which is we're playing the jets. Like they're not anyway for sure.
It also stems from an organizational trust. The Ravens have given me the benefit of the doubt. They do things the right way generally that it's I can give them the benefit of the doubt that maybe that we've won was like more about the jets.
Like this should not have been a particularly close game and the like offensive. Talent's not really there on paper.
You bring up a good point, which could actually compound my hypothesis is if the organization does really respects Lamar Jackson and is investing in him in a way around, in the sense of, we know we're eventually going to come to terms and we're going to sign him.
And even if not, we wanna protect him. We wanna protect this asset until we have him locked in the sense of maybe they don't even call as aggressive plays to put him in more vulnerable type positions. So it's not just Amar Jackson dynamic, but also a play calling of coaching and organization,
right?
I think it's an interesting, it's an interesting story. I don't necessarily buy it, but I'm willing to be convinced if next couple of weeks continue to build on your thesis.
All right. And if it does, then you have to buy a Joe Flaco Jersey, Joe fly,
I guess, a chance Joe Flaco, Jersey
Okay. I think there's like a few games, not on the board here yet. But I think, we'll do another stream later in the week, we'll do our war room stream. Get a little bit deeper dive in some of these games.
It's a discussion that we'll be having every week that won't be as structured as this type of conversation. But we'll give you insight into how Judah and I, just how we're thinking about building essentially our portfolios, how we're building our bet.
For the coming week, how do we wanna position for the contest? What looks attractive, and give you insight into those discussions. So that wraps our first edition of the Sunday night tilt, not a lot of tilt. Come on.
We can be honest.
We say we had a great week.
I wanna hold onto it as much as possible. Cause I know there's that's right. I know when that Sunday night football music comes on where it's just Jesus, that was like, can't believe ringer.
Yeah. There are two kinds.
There's the tilt, which is like, when you actually get things right. And it breaks the wrong way. And then there's just oh my God, like we fucked this slate up.
Yes. There's definitely different varieties of tilt. Yeah. But I don't know which one's better, I feel like, oh, I should have been able to do that. I just missed it. It's like the kind that actually maybe hurts the worst. And it's just eh, we were just wrong this week. Yeah that's
my, my, my theory is we were just wrong.
It's not a big deal. And it's like, when you're, it's hard enough to get a handicap or a game, right? Yes. So when you get it right in, it turns out the wrong way. It's no, this is an injustice that's been done
to fall. Yes. And that's why I think even though we are four and one and had a great week, it just stings that the Eagles was in our grasp and that we should have went five and oh.
And it was because of the backdoor loss. There's a little bit of tilt. There's little bit tilt. All right. Good stuff. Thanks Judah. Thanks everyone for listening. And that's the closing bell.
