Episode Transcript
Live from Dimes Square, New York City. Good evening Kings. It's NFL betting market outlook for week 15. We are into the holidays and for that reason, in fact, this may be the last regular season betting market outlook. As we start traveling, start spending some time with family, with our girlfriends who maybe still exist, who knows?
So we're gonna walk through a recap of our live bedding performance, some of our favorite trades, some of our trades that didn't work so well then dive into our drive quality scoreboard, quickly recap some of the biggest movers in the consensus market power rankings.
And then we'll dive in to week 15.
When we recap week fourteens live betting performance what trade do you think worked out the best for you for Oz and maybe something that, didn't work out?
The Chris Moore over. Chris Moore over receiving yards 80 and a half, right?
We took that, he had about 59 and a half receiving yards. It was clear that Davis Mills was looking his way. This is a team that was without Nico Collins, without Brandon Cooks in a passing game script like Davis was going to look Chris Moore's way. Look, anything can happen for 20 yards, but if you're if you have on pretty, decent certainty that like he's gonna get four or five targets It was just the fundamental mispricing
our June, a regular contributor in the chat, in fact to join the stream later on in the afternoon. Rrg Demen, I mean he pitched what, 4, 5, 6 prop bat over the course of the day and went like five of six.
This was on fire and that Chris Moore one too was my favorite bets of the day. Not just because of cast, but because it was such a screaming by and that was the type of systematic bet that I wish we could regularly flag.
Because it was at halftime when we lugged in to that live bet, he had four or five catches, like eight targets, 60 yards, and his live line was only like 18 yards in excess of that. And he was getting the looks and that was what was most important.
And the game script suggested continued passing. All the factors lined up of this is materially mispriced, let's exploit it, in like big props, to our June, for really being able to bring it to our attention and for us to, as a community, really exploit that.
What did you not like? , what did I not like? The Minnesota money one. I took that in the middle of the game. Right after the Vikings went down by one score, I think it was like second or third quarter.
And I was like, oh, I'll trade it off at another side. And that was my pre-game plan. But the game script wasn't going according to plan that I like initially in my head it was like, okay, these teams are not gonna able to stop each other. They're gonna be putting up a lot of points and that's why I should buy both sides.
But that game wasn't happening and I just had in my head, oh, this is what I wanna do. Don't forget your game plan. And I bet that, but I was like, the game was like 2114 or whatever. The scoring didn't really pick up until very late in the fourth quarter when it was already out of hand.
And it was a failure to adapt. said what was actually happening. And I was just like, okay, usually I like to come in with my plan and I heat, there's no worse feeling than I had the plan and I didn't execute. That's the worst feeling. But it wasn't going according to plan.
So don't just bet it because it was like in your head that this was the thing to do.
For me, I would say the one that I made that I regret was Giants Plus 14 one because pretty much everyone disagreed with it and I did it anyway.
It just wasn't a good bet. Also, just a lot of totals ended up not working out this year. That was definitely a drag on performance. Net. Net, yeah. Usually it hasn't been. There was just like a lot of weird game flows this week.
And I guess my last live trade that I would say that I actually did really and it kind of ties in to our week 14 drive quality, something that we've talked about in the past as well. I like looking at the drive quality scoreboard to really confirm or deny a live thesis on a game and why we either made a trade and maybe it didn't work out or maybe it did work out.
And one of the things I really liked was I really levered into Pittsburgh. At beyond the field goal. So I got it like three and a half, four and a half, five and a half. In fact, it was one of the biggest trades that I made.
I ended up putting like a little bit too much exposure on it, but drive quality says that the Steelers in fact played better. Steelers 19 earn points to the Ravens 18 earn points. And confirms what I thought I was seeing in the game.
Another live trade that we won some and lost some on. But again, drive quality, I think confirms we had the right approach was jets. So we took some jets, levered bets, some jets, alt lines deep out of the money that ended up not cashing, but drive quality bills, 16 earn points, jets 13 earn points. So a much closer game. But I actually rewashed that game. I really liked what I saw from the Jets. In fact, Flaco came in, turned the ball over, and that was critical to the outcome. So Mike White missed basically two full drives.
And Mike White played really good. He had some drops again, he missed a few throws and wasn't able to of bring them back in that final drive really to put anything together. It was foreign out and game over. But Corey Davis also went out early. The weather was miserable, but I like what I saw from the Jets.
And I like the drive quality scoreboard confirms that eye test. Yeah, that's right. And then, doesn't help to, to the wound if a plus seven and a half just ticket when I lost my eight. Yeah. . No, but I when it was like seven to seven we were getting plus 600 money lines.
It's this is mispriced again. They ended up losing. Yeah. But that was mispriced.
Yeah.
Moving on to our week 15 consensus market power rankings. Looking at the weekly power rankings from S P m Ppf F 5 38 Football Outsiders and in predict our model equal weights, all those power rankings to spit out a consensus market power ranking. Top five usual suspects.
Bills still at number one, chiefs at number two. Eagles up one spot to three cowboys down one spot to four Bengals at the fifth spot, so not a lot of movement in the top five. And then to round out the top 10, we got nine ERs, rave Ravens Patriots, one of the big movers. Up four spots to number eight, dolphins to number nine, down two spots, and then the Packers.
at 10 up three spots, just a relative move based on the team surrounding them all dropping spots. So the teams around 'em, dolphins, bucks, Vikings, Browns all losing, two, three spots and therefore by that relative move, the packers moving up.
But drive quality still a meaningful market, low on the packers at 24th. The next closest is 5 38 at 16th.
And I will say our drive quality really does have some some major disagreements in the top 10, right? The packers market as at a 10th. We have 24 bucks.
Market has that. 11th, we have it at 23. And I will just say we, we do have a new number one in our drive quality with the Philadelphia Eagles. Ooh. All of two weeks ago. All of two weeks ago, where everyone was ready to give up on the Eagles as the, there were tier two team, it's the Cowboys and the Niners.
I'm like, everyone is seemingly forgotten about what happened two weeks ago and is back on the Eagles train. The production didn't change. Weird things happen in the nfl. They only beat the cults by one. It's a good reminder of and which the drive quality had the Eagles winning that game by a full touchdown.
Yeah, exactly. The drive quality from the drive qualities perspective, the Eagles production has been as stable as can be from week one on. The results of the game has been varied cuz that's what happens over the course of NFL season, but they're ability to move the ball has basically the made exactly the same.
It's an important reminder. And Jalen Hertz is playing like the legitimate MVP candidate. He's the odds on favor right now, whatever, regardless of who should be It was almost the assumption you can't win with a quarterback like Jalen Hertz. That was the thing that everyone would've said before the season. And very quietly and gradually it's been like, oh yeah, of course Jalen Hertz could win. And I think it's an important same thing to a similar extent with Jar Golf.
It's yes it's a matter of levels, but at the same time, I don't think we can work under the assumption that there are super winning quarterbacks and in the right circumstances anyone can be successful. . And I wouldn't just say okay, good quarterback, bad quarterback, they can't win.
They can win. That's an important thing to, to keep in mind as we move on to the playoffs.
Great. Call out with the new number one with the eagles and drive quality. Something we were talking about earlier today is to what extent the drive quality power rankings, lead the broader consensus market power rankings.
So to provide you some leading predictable signal. We back tested this on 20 years plus of data and it had remarkably predictive results, which is one of the reasons why we've had so much confidence in it, even though this is the first season.
And I think just anecdotally it's been great. I It's been ahead of the curve on a team like the Bengals been well ahead of the curve on a team like the Seahawks, like the Lions. It's been well ahead of the curve on fading teams like Packers, Rams, box, colds and being able to avoid those types of teams.
And it's been very accurate on the Cardinals being like, ahead of ranking. The Cardinals is basically a bottom three team for most of the entire season. And in fact, it's pretty much the only signal that we've gotten from drive quality, that we have manually overridden.
Over and over again.
And it has had its misses too. We've had some heartbreak betting the Jags, though. That's all we've forgiven after laughing.
But again, the ja the team is like a, the Jags a the Saints is a fair one. Cause I think it, it's been miscalculating what we've seen from the saints. It's hard to say that the Jags is wrong. Yeah. Meaning, I it's not wrong in the sense of assessing it hasn't made us money. The capital T truth.
Yes. I just mean what's made us money.
And so some of the biggest one week movers from the upside Panthers up four spots to number 26th on a market consensus, power rank perspective, drive quality, still a little bit hotter on the Panthers at 22.
Lions Up four spots Top 10 team from a drive quality perspective, something we called out last week and why it was actually justified from a drive quality perspective, why they were favorites versus Vikings.
And Patriots up another four spots to a top 10 team. Now, number eight, we're still a little bit cold on the Patriots. We're at a market low at 13th.
And then some of the biggest divers this week, cardinals down seven spots to a market that says power rank of 30th. Of course, now losing Kyle Murray. But drive quality was already well ahead of that, already was ranking again as a bottom two, three team for several weeks in a row, almost pretty much the whole season.
Seahawks down four spots, Browns down three spots, and a flurry of teams down two or one spot. And that rounds it up.
So let's move in to N F L Week fifth team. Start with the Thursday night game. 49ers at Seattle 49ers minus three and a half, plus 100 on DraftKings. Right now with a total of 43, Brock Purdy banged up. The narrative I'm hearing around this game is Geno Smith's playing worse. It's still a tough place to play in Seattle.
The Niners are outperform. Purdy can't be as efficient or as good as he has been. Getting Seahawks over a field goal. This is slam dunk Seahawks territory. That's the narrative that I've heard recited. So this makes me not wanna touch Seattle, right?
I don't wanna touch either of these teams. I disagree with the reasoning, though meaning Geno Smith is coming down to Earth, but I don't think it's a difference in process at all. In the sense of he's been throwing these turnover worthy play type passes all season long. This is actually a bunch of film people.
Been pointing this out, it's just they happen to be turning to interceptions now, but nothing's fundamentally changed. And like he still could get the Gino games from earlier in this season. But Rockford's been nothing but excellent. There's, what evidence do we have other than the fact that he like, is a rookie which could happen of course, to say they like, oh, he's gonna come crashing down to Earth.
There's no way to know. I will say there's a, there's an important live angle here, I think which is that the niners play far better from head. If you wanna fade him, you probably wanna fade him when the Niners are behind. If they do fall behind.
And Seattle's been a great team, when Gino needs to throw he's, he has not been the issue leading comebacks. It's been the defense failing to, to stop teams which I think are important angles to consider.
All right. Saturday game Colts, Vikings Colts plus four total 48 I think the Jeff Saturday magic is wearing off.
So I think this is a pretty meaningful head coaching mismatch, talent mismatch. Again, things didn't go right for the Vikings verse Red Hot Lines team, but Kirk Cousins still played well underneath the discrepancy in score, and I think I like the Vikings here. I think so too.
We know what the Vikings are. They're the same team. They're very stable. I think they happen to match up pretty well against the Colts in that the Colts have really limited production against wide receivers. But number one, Justin Jefferson's an alien.
He'll probably win that match up regardless and they can win with theirs and especially Hawkins over the and I. , but I don't think the Colt's offense is really capable of taking advantage of the areas where Minnesota's weakest, secondary , if you've got the new alarm of Matt Ryan throwing the Alec Pierce, it's not exactly instilling fear and executing the deep ball.
Yeah. The Vikings, porous defense and we know one of the biggest weaknesses for Matt Ryan, you're gonna put pressure on him, then everything can unravel quite fast. And I don't know if the Vikings are necessarily gonna be able to do that.
Which could keep the game, closer. And if they establish a. , Jonathan Taylor's run for seven yard to carry it. And it's a slow game. Of course, that's that's working in favor of the courts.
All right. Ravens plus three in Cleveland total is 37.
I was tweeting a little bit this week about Deshaun Watson. I rewatched the Browns Bengals and to me he definitely looked slow, lacked the processing speed, was throwing the ball late, but, one less dropped ball, one less bad pass, and literally one, one less dropped ball in a critical situation, one less bad pass into the end zone that was too high and wasn't caught changes the game script of that game.
From a drive quality perspective. The Browns did outperform their realized score. Yeah. And it's gonna continue to take a few games and maybe they'll hold the rest of the season for Deshaun Watson to really get back up to speed.
But I think he did play better than what the perception Isely losing to the Bengals by two touchdowns. Completely agree. With that one, I think what people are not talking about is over the last month, the brand's rushing game has fallen off a cliff.
Like earlier in the season, they were averaging like one EPA per rush. First in the NFL by far was officially as like some of the best passing games. Right now it's negative point. 19, which is worse than the Carolina Panthers offense this year. A lot worse. The run game has been pretty much disaster over the past couple of months.
I don't know if Watson's the biggest issue right now and I think almost baked into, to the price for Cleveland is okay, their offense is gonna get going. Cause they can always run the ball and I'm not sure that's really true. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Watson puts together a vintage performance. And I think you're right that this game looks very different if Donovan Peoples Jones doesn't drop that touchdown, which would've hit a nice 41, same game, parlay.
And they like were failing on fourth downs. I think the brands could surprise put together good offense, but it all hinges on the final Watson, cuz this Russian game is not not really going right now.
Dolphins plus seven in buffalo. 43 and a half is the total. The weather's supposed to be pretty miserable. Which is one of the reasons why I suspect the total is this low given these two offenses. Yeah. Nonetheless, I wanna target that total of 43 and a half.
I think we go over, I know the Bill's offense has definitely been clunky the last couple weeks. Certainly not nearly as explosive as we've become accustomed to. And then there's also, I've been reading some things on Twitter oh, the dolphins have been found out the games script is out on them.
I don't know if that's necessarily true either.
I trust Mike Daniel to make adjustments in, it was unclear okay, what was this a Niners thing?
And then once Stanley did the kind of exact same thing, giving depth to linebackers okay, it's out. People are going to try that. They'll notice yes, to adjust. Now it's not just a one off with the Niners. And if you wanna look at all the offensive play on scripted plays this year, they've been great.
I trust McDaniel. To figure it out. Come out with a new game plan. He knows what's coming every, it's no secret, right? The nine s and charters just do the same thing. But the other part is that, like I've been really selling Toves defense recently. , the team has not been playing well over the past bunch of weeks, and this is a double-sided thing I wanna buy, which is we're not gonna get the dolphins lower than where they're at right now. We know the, like they have the ingredients to be an extremely successful offense. They've shown that for weeks on end they have that high end ceiling and the bill's.
Defense is being priced as an elite one when they're just not. And they're not really able to get quick pressure, which is really the only area that Tua has been unsuccessful this year. Again, weather's certainly a concern but assuming it's not, 30 mile power winds and, four inches of snow yeah, the wind will be critical.
The wind will be critical. Yeah. The wind is critical. But I see this as a spot for the dolphin bounce back against an overrated Bills defense and trust McDaniel. There's no reason not to. Yeah, I would agree with it. I definitely like dolphins plus seven, and as long as the wind is not a meaningful element, then over on the 43 and a half.
Eagles minus nine on the road verse Chicago. Terrible defense. One of the worst defenses in the league the last five weeks, especially since they started making some of those trade deadline moves.
Total 48 and a half. This also seems like it could be potentially low for two of the most explosive offenses that we've seen from a drive quality perspective. Yeah. I think that the question really hinges on Fields' health and whether or not he's gonna be rushing, if he's rushing, this gonna be an explosive bear's offense.
But again, as I always like to say, points exist in, in two spheres, right? It is both a reflection of like a point spread value, like power rankings. And a fundamental, this team is, four spread points better than the next. But it also exists as real points and real games.
And as we saw last week, it's a perfect example. The Eagles will be extremely aggressive. They're willing to put up a lot of points and when a team is scoring 35, 40 points, the minus eight spread is not so meaningful.
The Eagles are clearly the superior team. The total might be attractive if the the bears can put up puts on their own. But I like the Eagles here for sure.
I'm looking at the total over seems like potentially the most attractive and I would do alt total, especially if you get a relatively quiet start.
Chiefs two. Touchdown favorite in Houston versus Texans Total 49. Maybe last week. Interstate rivalry, Texans and Cowboys. Maybe that was the last hurrah. But I've said this numerous times this year. I do not like chiefs double digits. I don't like chiefs. Really.
Two scores. Type spreads. Yeah. Didn't work out last week either, even though they went up four touchdowns. You ended up not getting the cover. Drive Quality says that they didn't get the cover either, so it wasn't necessarily unjustified. Russell Wilson goes out.
Who knows? Maybe that game gets even more sideways if he potentially stays in. Again, the Chiefs just, they're not interested in blowing teams out, or I don't know what it is, but they just don't, they do it maybe once a year, regardless of the competition.
And for that reason, I would not wanna mess with chiefs minus 14. And Davis Mills loves to throw it downfield, which you connect on a couple of those and that's enough offense.
Yeah, I'm with you. I don't see any reason to buy the Chiefs at 14 here. I'm not buying Texan. One of the biggest spreads of the season. Texans at home. I think it has to be, if you are a degen and want some exposure on this's, gotta be like Texans or bus, in my view.
Cowboys minus four on the road at Jacksonville.
Total, 48. I'm going back, I don't know, for the 13th time, the season. Every week it looks attractive. I've said numerous times. I do not like the Cowboys. I do not trust the Cowboys. I don't think they're gonna go very far.
And the Jacks are super volatile, super clumsy, make tons of mistakes, but and we said this in the past too, we said in the preseason preview, you don't wanna play the Jags in the final four weeks of the season.
Especially. And we definitely saw that start to come to fruition last week. Definitely one of the better games that they played all season and now they're plus four on the road, still alive in the division. Tons to play for.
I'm torn here cause I like both sides. I think the, we haven't really seen the Cowboys offense unleashed in A pass heavy game script.
Meaning they've really just put on the easy the easy buttons and led their run game. And I think this offense can be extremely successful and they're throwing the ball. And the Jaguars defense is really attackable right now. Like they're really weak. They've been, the second word is past defense by a large margin over the past two months of the season.
And the cowboys are really built to exploit that, even if it hasn't actually kinda manifest that way over the past couple of months. Which leads me to say exactly how I will be attacking this game, which is a tales outcome. I will combine some Dak Prescott passing props with honestly I could try and middle this with the Jaguars bed also. But I'll be betting Prescott passing overs and some combination of cowboy spread. In the same vein, like I can, you can bet on Lawrence. Lawrence is playing at an elite level right now. He's been unbelievable for five, six games now.
Alright. Lions plus one in New York versus the Jets 44 and a half low total.
I don't know if weather could potentially be a factor here. Jets Defense played awesome verse the bills. Again, I really liked what I saw from the Jets rewatch that drive quality liked what they saw from the Jets. Mike White played really well.
If the injury is not going to affect Mike White's play. And I really like the Jets here. Yeah. Interesting. And the lions are a different beast in domes, especially at home. And when they go outside on the road, it's just, I think you're from that Patriots camp.
But in any case, I think the jets are still being underrated. Yeah. Yeah. It should be three. It should be three. In my view.
I'm torn here. He, lions rise has, I think in part come the offense has been good for sure. And that's been, it's been great.
All. . But their defenses played better ass of late and I wanna sell that angle, right? Like I Are they the 32nd best defense? No. Are the 20th best defense also? No, I think it's somewhere in between. And I sell the short term rise in the defensive stock.
With that said that our offense has been amazing and it's a real clash. I'm not sure that am Ross named Bryan is gonna get, sauce Gardner treatment. I don't know if Sauce Gardner's gonna go on the slot to play with him. And like you added Jameson Williams, who by the way, was the fastest track player last week and caught a bottom of a touch bag.
Does he be a dynamic offense? I have no take either side of this game. Can the Jets defense slow down the lion? I'm not sure. I usually like the bet on the offense over the defense. Yeah. It's a good live one to play though. If you see the lions slowed down by the Jetson I think the Jets will have the same success on offense.
It's another great matchup for Mike White. And that's why, I really like the over 44 and a half here as well, assuming that there's not gonna be a huge weather element.
Steelers plus three in Carolina, 37 and a half. I'm really rooting for the Panthers. I got that, plus 4,000 division ticket just from three weeks ago. You bring it up now. Do you know what the Panthers are?
in their division now without looking. Plus 300. I just know cause I check these daily. Something at work that is a rapidly bullish move. Nonetheless, so I'll be rooting for the Panthers for sure, but I am not gonna be betting them minus a field goal. No. The defense has been playing awesome, but one of the components of my thesis for betting the Panthers was that Darnell could come in potentially stabilize offense a little bit.
He can play well in stints and he's been playing relatively error prone football. But I rewatched the Panther Seahawks and I saw a lot of things from Dar that I just did not like. The dude is like a perfect example of how smart someone like Tom Brady is and just how Dar is just not very smart.
He got sacked numerous times and almost every time he got sacked he's all tangled and like putting his body in these very bizarre positions. To the extent of where I thought almost every time he got sacked he was gonna suffer some serious injury, knee injury, back injury, hip injury, cuz he kept putting himself in bad position.
whereas someone like Tom Brady knows how to take a hit, knows when to give up, knows when to collapse, and that's how he elongates his career. And also doesn't put himself in necessarily very vulnerable positions to turn the ball over. Yeah. And so now verse a defense like the Steelers, I'm worried about the Panthers. The main benefit from Donald so far you could say is he hasn't been turnover prone, but he was very like prone to potentially turning the ball over, even in last week's game for a bad defense like the Seahawks.
Yeah. TJ WA came, scares me against the the panthers. So the offensive line has held up. I just don't scan the angles to play like either side here.
Falcons plus four and a half division matchup with the Saints in New Orleans, 43 and a half total.
Desmond Ritter are gonna be the the starter for Atlanta introduces a component of uncertainty. He played pretty decent in the pre-season. And the Saints are just, just can't put it all together. Yeah, I don't feel very strongly in this one.
Too much uncertainty.
Patriots minus one on the road in Las Vegas. 44 and a half the total
I'm not gonna bet anything before the game. There is something I wanna monitor live which is the Raiders have been playing terrific when playing ahead with a lead. . And conversely, the Patriots have been among the worst act coming back yet makes sense with a offensive coordinator who lacks in creativity. They're like a bottom three team in in any efficiency metric when they're down.
So I'd look to, if the Raiders get out to a lead, I'd be perfectly fine. Betting on the Raiders and me moving at some all lines.
A big interesting, coaching matchup here, obviously with kind of mentor versus mentee angle. I probably like the Raiders here.
Cardinals plus three on the road in Denver. 36. The total, this is the lowest one on the board.
Two bad offenses? Not back to the Broncos. I don't care who the opponent. Do you know, is Russell Wilson supposed to be back? Have you seen anything like that? Oh, that's a good point. The NFL's been, it's almost two weeks for concussions, right? Yeah. Yeah.
And that was a bad looking one too. Like a visceral Oh, where everyone has an image in their head. Also this is all about optics. Feel like zoomed in on him. Clearly out of it. Yeah. And they got nothing to play for. Of course. Yeah, both teams are done.
No thanks. Yeah. Not spending my money on the skin.
Bengals minus three and a half on the road in Tampa, 44. The total, again, for my anecdotal experience, hearing what others have to say about this game, it's the Bengals are beat up. The Tom Brady LED Bucks are still a top 10 team who've just played bad football but still have that sky high ceiling.
They just got blown out. Tom Brady's gonna be pissed. This is gonna be a bounce back game. And I'm fully on board fading that narrative. I got a little worried there for a second. This is probably my highest conviction play of the week the Bengals. And I'll be definitely adding it with bro passing props to go along with it.
You look at the, I predict ranking from our chart earlier, which again, sources in exactly what's being priced in this week and to some extent next week they still have the bucks at 10th.
Our drive quality has 'em at like 24th, 23rd. You look at epa on offense, the angles are third. The bucks are 21st. These teams are not in the same stratosphere. You think about, again, the same point I made earlier about points existing in multiple speeders.
We know the Bengals are gonna be able to score? How are the bucks keeping up pace? These teams are not the same caliber offenses. At the end of the day, the market is pricing in some sort of downturn in efficiency for the Bengals passing offense. And I wanna fade. Any like defensive downgrade for elite offenses? I think defensive match ups can matter in, in the middle, but butter's gonna win against anyone.
Also, like the Tampa defense is a show of itself. Yeah. Shaq Barretts out. Jamel. Dino is like TFS 10th corner. He's gonna be out for this game. Vive looks like he's gonna be out. If Sean Murphy bumping and Anto Winfield will be back, which is not a a given at all. They'll, they're certainly banged up.
This defense has zero pass rush. They don't have talents on the secondary. We've talked at nauseum all season about the offensive flaws. The Bengals are peaking. Joe Burro is not taking sacks anymore. The offensive lines is playing way better. We know the talent they have of receiver.
I love the Yeah. These are two teams moving in two different directions. Yeah. But they still being priced that way. No that's the point. We have the evidence of things are the box or something. Crisis at top 10 team. They're a bottom 10 team for sure. They're terrible.
And that's what is presenting the opportunity here is there's some pretty strong just storylines around this game that's causing this pricing. And, when we're talking about sealing outcomes for the books, yeah. It's week 15 and it's never materialized all season.
But people continue to cite it. I feel like this should be bengals minus seven and a half. And so I would play this all the way up to, I'm looking at, Bengals minus 14. Wow. Minus 13 and a half, plus 2 98.
Titans plus three in LA versus Chargers 47 and a half the total Chargers minus three plus 100 on DraftKings. The chargers have been choppy, but maybe they're starting to put it together again.
They're getting healthier. Healthy, yep. I still have questions about the defense. I just don't think this is the spot for the opportunity to capitalize. They insist on just running the ball and they don't have the receiver talent to take advantage of the charger Secondary and I think we can't overstate the difference between Justin Herbert throwing to Michael Banny and these were nobody buddies.
And like now they have five legitimate weapons. Like Mike Williams, legitimate weapon, Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett, Josh Palmer's a very good three. Austin LER is one of the best out of the backfield. You can't underestimate that. Granted, they, the offensive line has still pined an issue and like Herbert had to manage and navigate kind of those pockets.
But yeah, I've been attacking the Titans past defense all year. I don't see any reason to stop right now. Yep. I like that angle.
Giants in Washington, rematch of a game just a few weeks ago. Giants plus four and a half over under 40 and a half. I was really surprised by this line. In fact, this might be one of the most surprising lines.
Cause I at least understand, I think the Bengals bucks is mispriced, but I understand why it is what it is. I'm surprised the Giants is plus four and a half here and a game that went to OT just a few weeks ago. And our drive quality had implied, the Giants did play in fact a little bit better than the Commanders.
I know the Giants did not look good last week, but they're getting blown out by ostensibly perhaps the best team in nfl. Certainly. Understandable. I like Giants plus four and a half.
Yeah, I'm with you. I find these teams even, I was pretty shocked actually when we were looking at powering Against the Giants were 28, 20 ninth.
Something like that. And the commanders are 15th. That's crazy. I think these two teams are awfully similar. . It's just if we flip their seasons, I think we flip the power makings.
Yeah. Drive quality Has Washington 18th Giants 21st verse market power rankings of 15th for Washington, 29th for the Giants. So the market's saying these are two meaningfully different teams and that's being reflected in the pricing, whereas, drive call would say that these are pretty two equally matched teams.
Four and a half points. Is too much.
Last game Monday night Football rams at Green Bay Rams, plus 7 39 and a half. We're lower than than the market on both these teams.
I think I like the Rams plus seven. Yeah. Again, it's not a place I'm betting just cuz. Two bad teams, and it's just not my style of play, but I agree that seven's too much. And the packers have shown no ability all year to separate from teams.
But again, we saw like hair powering 10th, our numbers, half him the 24th. I lean much closer to the 24th than the 10. One thing I'm monitoring for for props purposes is to do at well has been the go-to target in situations for the team trailing since he got some run I'd be bending some, receiving guards and receiving props of his if the game script goes according to what Vegas thinks.
And if they if the Rams are trailing .
All right. Good stuff. That wraps up the N F l week 15 N F L betting market outlook. Again, we'll be back in a couple weeks to wrap up the season going into the playoffs as we take a little bit of a mini break going into the end of the year and into the holidays.
Hope everyone enjoys any vacations that they may have. And we'll see you in game trade live betting this Sunday, and then back on the betting market outlook as we go into the playoffs. that's closing bell.
