Episode Transcript
Super Bowl 57. we're a little bit late in the game, talking about a lot of things that everyone's already been talking about for about 10 days now, but thought we'd share our thoughts, share our insights, some bets that we plan on making some game plans for live betting.
Did wanna just touch base with everyone at least one more time before we go in, into that off season. Alright, let's get into how does the line gotten to where we are? Where do these teams start off from? At the beginning of the season, the chiefs of course, go into every single year as one of the top favorites.
We're at a plus 600 mark right after the Super Bowl. Even last year, Eagles were much deeper underdogs around the plus 4,000 range. And of course, this was before the signing of AJ Brown and a bunch of other off-season moves that they made. And over the course of the free agency and into the summer and into training camp,
and certainly as you got into week two, week three, week four, and we could see how the odds just wavered there over the course of the season, staying pretty much in line with one another.
Somewhere between that, plus 600 and plus 800 range. And then you've seen as we've gone through the playoffs and now into the Super Bowl, you start to see that flipping really in there in mid-January. I saw this cool graphic. This is from DraftKings, basically just demonstrating where they have the legalized sports betting all across the us. Where are they getting the most bets? And we can see it's clearly Eagles.
And this really just lines up, there's a lot of suspicion and skepticism around betting splits and betting percentages and things like that, and other data that the sports books publish. But you look pretty much across the board, even anecdotal tweets and other types of evidence.
It seems to suggest the, there is an imbalance between the broader public betting market, potentially even sharps as we'll get to or pro betters. Smarter money betters are all leaning towards. The Eagles. In fact there was an interesting tweet from Jeff Benson, of course at Circo, one of the most influential sports books talking about when they opened up the lines, they opened the Chiefs as favorites.
And he said that all the money that was coming in, we literally only had Sharps betting into the opener. And that opener, they had $20,000 limits, and it was basically just all Eagles money to the point where they had to go from chiefs minus two and a half, all the to Eagles minus two and a half.
So that's a pretty big move, especially for the Super Bowl. Some really influential money. And now the lines settled around that one and a half line as we start to now head into the super. I know Judah, you don't necessarily take that too much into consideration when you're framing your bets.
I know, Zach, you do take that more so into consideration.
So any feedback from you guys on what I just ran through?
Yes. As soon as the game's finished two weekends ago I was on my accounts trying to bet the Eagles immediately when the line popped up and it was, plus two.
I'm like, what? That makes no sense. So I think, not that I'm, at the level of, sharps who are in this game every day, but. , to me it, it was just a mispricing. It was just, especially with the variables that we didn't know at the time, which it was Casey's injuries to their, receiver core, et cetera.
It made total sense at that time. Now as things have cooled down, if the cheese are a little bit more healthier, it's probably a pretty even matchup that turnovers could determine the game, in all honesty.
Yeah, I guess I'll go against conventional wisdom in, in two ways here.
Number one I do not care what the sharps are betting, and the signal behind that I'll take to my usual process . And the the second thing is I don't understand how you could possibly bet this game. Like the information we're gonna learn about injuries is far more valuable and it's a total guess from two weeks ago to now.
And understanding, especially like we don't know about each of the quarterbacks are hurt and obviously key questions that the chief's receiver position that I wanna wait almost so as late as possible and this game's not gonna be moving past the field goal here that I wanna have all available information before I place any real
bet.
. Yeah. And that's why, some of those things that I've seen over Twitter is, a lot of people trying to use data, right? To justify why the chiefs should be favorites or why Mahomes is the best quarterback ever and he's amazing and he's always up and into the right in every single chart.
And I think that totally misses what's the key factor, especially in this pregame line movement. It's not about evaluating these teams from like an underlying traditional merit perspective that has everything to do with the injuries, everything to do with the injuries, trying to evaluate the status of Mahomes, of the wide receiver set, which as you mentioned, Jodi is extremely banged up and we know Mahomes is so good that he can usually overcome really whoever is out there.
But this is also the Super Bowl . First of all that obviously they did not play well, versed the box. But remember they did not open and start very well verse the Niners either. They very easily in fact could have lost that game. Yeah. And we know even prior in the playoffs in that one they were down by double digits.
One of the charts I wanna bring up here too. I think, everyone anecdotally knows this, but just how the chiefs always are flirting with disaster. And playing from behind, playing from a deficit, and everyone rolls their eyes and is just dismisses it because, oh, the Chiefs are just so good.
Mahomes just so good that, they'll be able to overcome that. And Juda you and I know from live betting these games throughout the course of the whole season, it's so easy to say that after the fact, but in the game there's very few people saying that exact same narrative. When the chiefs are down by 10 points in the second quarter and the other team's driving, it's not until after that's already materialized that then it becomes so obvious that, of course the chiefs are gonna come back.
They always come back. But in the moment it's maybe not this time. And we don't really know the status of Mahomes were the Mahomes injury was a factor leading into the Buck Super Bowl as well. I know Zach, that was one of the things you were leaning into.
The injury is different and also the offensive line was like a huge factor last in the Super Bowl versus the box as well. But that's not the same here.
I don't think that the relevant point of comparison is the Super Bowls. I think it's the championship game, right? That's gonna be the closest approximation to what we're gonna have this week.
And if anything, Mahomes is two weeks to, to get more healthy. And it did not really make a difference in the conference championship. He still threw for 330 yards. I was moving the ball at will. I don't see what's new to the injury that like it to me. Ah, he's not gonna, he's not gonna play well all of a sudden.
Like we have a At least a somewhat okay. Sample of what Mahomes will look like. Injured. It's not totally guesswork.
I would say though, Judah I agree with you to a point, and they're gonna have the receivers back. Judah should be back. But once he got hobbled, there was a period of time in that fourth quarter where I was genuinely concerned if the Chiefs could score again.
I was seeing a team that, due to the injuries, their offense became almost aept because they were so predictable. It was either Kelsey or a fifth string receiver or a running back outta the backfield. Now they won't have that this time, but if we get into that type of situation again against the Eagles, I, I mean, I think that's where the Sharps might have been coming from.
Cause that was my gut feeling is shit if like they really don't have a healthy, set of receivers or Mahomes has hobbled at all. Like man, that offense looked really fure down the stretch. I don't know it could get ugly fast for that offense.
Especially against the Eagles team, that's pretty aggressive.
I don't disagree with that. I think you need one of Watson, Smith, Schuster or Tony to be healthy. You just can't have Sky Mark Marcus Kemp being the cyber shooter. Exactly. I totally agree. And I think that's a great live angle.
If we see if those guys are At all hurt or completely inefficient. I think that's a great angle.
That's the other component here too, is it's not just the ho Homes injury. And over the course, you'd think that he's getting healthier over the last two weeks for sure.
I mean you could say, yeah, we saw him, how he played the championship game and that's what we can generally expect as a kinda minimum in this coming game. But I think Zach, you mentioned also did he re aggravate something throughout that and the adrenaline was pushing him through the rest of the game?
You couldn't really see how maybe could have potentially affected him elsewhere. But then of course the wide receivers. I'm surprised that, again, to your point, Judah is let's wait until this game starts to really get more information to start actually laying down some meaningful money.
But there was plenty of people willing to do that as soon as there was an availability to do it. And it seemed to be a waterfall of money on one side. And so it also seems to be discounting herz his injury with his shoulder.
That's something that I feel like, again, the mark's not nearly taking into consideration as much kinda looking past it. Like they looked past the Mahomes injury in the offensive line injuries versus the Bucks.
It's a great point. And this is, I was saying off air that I actually think the Herz injury is gonna influence this game more than the Mahomes one. But it's almost built in, right? There's nothing new over the past, four or five weeks with Hertz, but they're not gonna be able to win, if they're completely reliant upon their run game which is they weren't good against the Niners.
think that's a misconception like the average of three and a half yards a carry. They just got, beneficial fields in the defense played well. That game script is not gonna work against the Chiefs. You're not gonna beat Mahomes without a passing attack from the Eagles.
And I'd be genuinely concerned about Kurt's ability to throw especially downfield. And he was missing, he's missing throw, it's a small sample out of all of his deep passing efficiencies way down. Since the entry and we even saw it, he missed a wide open AJ Brown for a 75 yard touchdown.
Those are the kinds of plays you need to hit to, to beat the chiefs and win the Super Bowl.
That's something that I think to your guys' point was probably glossed over by most everybody, is the shellacking of the 49ers is somewhat deceptive. While Mahomes had the opposite, but similar fashion as 49ers, everybody went down. They somehow pulled it out. So those two dichotomies, working in tandem probably heavily influenced the the overreaction. And that's where I agree if Hertz was fully good to go, I would still be more confident in my Eagles positions.
So you bet the Eagles. Yeah I bet some eagles. But like you guys said I'm really interested to game plan for a live play because I think we could see a very strong move one way or the other.
Like it could be close, of course, blah, blah, blah. But I would not be shocked if like Casey gets jalin uncomfortable few turnovers and Casey's up 20 and the opposite way too. Either way could happen. It wouldn't be shocking to me just because I think the game script could be wonky here.
I think the chiefs are fine in any game script, right? They're up, they're down, we're gonna get the same chiefs. They'll probably get a little too conservative if they're up, but the Eagles are entirely reliant on playing from ahead and we haven't actually seen their games script against.
teams that are beating them. And I think this is everyone's been talking this week about, the Eagles haven't played a good opponent. I don't really care about that. We'll be able to tell early on whether the Eagles have come to play. But what is true about the schedule is we don't have a good sample of the Eagles playing from behind.
They've only, they've run like 140 plays from behind and they're a completely league average offense. That's not true of the chiefs
behind screen exactly how many plays that they've played from behind.
Exactly. And it's almost nothing except for that Washington's game which they lost. But that's, I think the key part and the essential for live betting, which is that like it's a total wild card if the equals go down.
And Brett, as we've talked about all year, betting the chiefs live, it's a matter of timing and that's gonna be kinda difficult, but they always find a way to come back or at least make the game close.
So basically what this shows is everything, all the fuzzy green dots or plays that they played with the lead, all the pink cloudy dots or the plays that they played from behind.
And we can see they went down early verse lions and that was quick comeback. Also went down quickly to the Jags and then that implosion happened rapidly. And for the most of that game, the eagles were certainly in control.
The really, the one comeback, the Eagles mustard and it took all the way down to the last 30 seconds of the game was verse the Colts and verse the Colts of all team of all teams. A team of course that we know that the chiefs also lost to straight up a team that they just played around their food all game long.
And so there's really not a great precedent for the Eagles to go down in a deficit and play from behind a, certainly against the team like the Chiefs and think, as of course, have the exact opposite problem.
Yeah. In fact, they're very used to playing from behind. Almost every single game they're losing at some point in time, sometimes they're losing by double digits more than a touchdown. losing by more than a touchdown to the Chargers, to the Colts, to the Raiders.
They're almost down by 20 to the Raiders down more than a touchdown, to the Niners, to the Titans, to the Bengals. Were flirting with disaster verse the Titans. They were down verse the Broncos. Half those teams aren't even good.
And if you look at their playoff record, the, the last four years, they don't really blow the doors off anyone. And if typically, the Bengals obviously had a lot of close games in the Rams last year.
But I feel like a lot of Super Bowl winners from the past, probably, I, I haven't looked this up statistically, but I would argue probably more than half Super Bowl winners tend to dominate in the playoffs. That they're really just like head and shoulders above the teams they play, whether it's because situation matchups or Momentum.
Like even when Seattle won the Super Bowl, like once they got in the playoffs, they really got cooking and just took care of business. It just feels like if Hertz's arm is good enough, the Eagles have, I don't know, like that momentum of confidence that, that if they get up a little bit, I just don't know if I see the Chiefs coming back, like especially with the potential injuries and then Mahomes having to push his leg and that's where to Judah's point, if the chiefs get up.
all bets are off. It's like it's chiefs are off, in my opinion. Whereas if Eagles get up, it's like I, I don't know if I really see the chiefs coming back.
I don't know. Another layer to it and say, I think it actually depends how the eagles go up which is if the Eagles are moving the ball well offensively and they build, a lead through a couple scoring drives, I actually trust the coaching staff to remain aggressive and continue on the same path.
If they get there by way of turnovers, you can a similar start to the Niners and to the game against the Niners. I'd be fined backing the chiefs. Yeah. It's not just like automatic situational thing, whereas the reverse is not true. I don't care how the chiefs get their lead. If they come out to a big lead and the Eagles are forced to pass, I don't wanna back the Eagles.
No.
It's a good point. And that's where I could see this game doing the inverse and we get a chief's maybe not a blowout in a big way, but chiefs end up pulling away. Eagles can't muster come back. They win by 14, 17 points or something. Just because Hertz can't throw well, and, turnovers and spirals outta control.
What do you think about just the overall cadence of scoring likely in this game? So we see the total's 51. I know right angle sports came out and they hit the, over at the 50 and a half, pushed it to 51.
From everything that we're talking about, and again with injuries such a huge variable in this game. Injuries are affecting both teams, . I don't, I would not air on the side of leaning into the over No. In this situation. I bet the under already and total open at 48 and a half on FanDuel.
So a lot of pressure to the upside. Do you guys agree with that?
I don't know. To your point, there's too many variables to the downside of offenses in this game that it could just resort.
And what we saw was Cincinnati kc, where the offenses were just like we can't do anything down field. Like we're just gonna din and dunk and play field position, and then your game script's out the window and it's not gonna go over. So I err on the side of under, but if the quarterbacks feel healthy, It could definitely go over.
Yeah,
Like obviously with these two offenses, the over is in play as it is any game. But I also think the under is in play, especially if you wanna talk about like past Russian, I think this is the one area where Mahomes might be more effective is just like getting rid of the ball quicker, which means fewer throws, downfield more, plays more marching down the field.
And also like sacks are drive killers and both of these are really good units top 10 and pressure rates a couple more sacks than, we'd give credit for a game in week seven just because of the, mobility issues from a homes. And the fact that hurts the achilles heel is still taking too many sacks.
And that's exactly a recipe for how this game goes under, which is a couple drives that, take four or five minutes, but then pun cause of.
Also they did not play very well. Verse the Bengals. And the Bengals were dealing with catastrophic offensive line injuries, and they were able to mask it in the divisional round, and it was completely exposed verse the Chiefs and the pressure on Burrow really compromised their game plan.
And there's a lot of criticism about how and rightfully so about how the Eagles essentially sleepwalked through their playoffs into the Super Bowl. But I don't know if we can really necessarily say that the Chiefs aren't limping into the Super Bowl as well, without necessarily putting together really any meaningfully great performances.
They didn't look great versus the Jags. They certainly looked, I would say they looked worse versus the Jags the second time around than they did the first time around. . And so you're looking at two teams that they're certainly neither one is at their A game, that's for sure.
And so then again, from a total's perspective, you're basically like, I feel like this game's being priced, like they're basically firing on all cylinders.
The last shootout we saw was what Philly versus the Patriots, right? And far as a Super Bowl shootout where the offenses took over the game
and that, that's what I see from both these offenses is neither are explosive and to Judah's main point with her shoulder, they're not gonna be explosive. The only way this goes over is if there's turnovers that just push it over.
So you're, it's not gonna be probably because of the offenses being at their peak level, like you guys are saying. Yeah, no, I think
that's exactly right.
What I would say too is with respect to potential game scenarios is, and I know you guys were alluding to a little bit this earlier, is I don't see a scenario that's probable where the chiefs blow out the eagles because the eagle, the chiefs are dealing with injuries across the board.
There is really no question mark. Yeah. Mahomes not a hundred percent. The wide receiver group's, not a hundred percent. . In fact, again, they're basically being taped together. We don't even know if Tony Tess are gonna play and if he does, to your point we were talking about earlier, Juda maybe he's gonna be in for how many plays, 10, 15 plays.
JU sutures banged up, so maybe, yeah, he's on there. But I mean are these guys running up full speed? Are they gonna be looped into as many plays as they otherwise would be playing healthy? That's for sure not gonna be the case. And really the main question for the Eagles is just hurts his shoulder.
So maybe that is meaningful. But if there is a scenario where it's not, and in fact he's actually much healthier and that's what all these big money betters knew going into the Super Bowl and therefore slammed it as soon as they got plus two me, I could see surely see that scenario where the Eagles run away with this from the Chiefs.
As soon as the lion came out, there was notable betters out there that many of us follow on Twitter who were saying, chiefs minus three.
That's the line, that's the fair line. And obviously that was dead wrong, but I saw that numerous times from notable sports betters. But obviously the actual private money coming in was saying the exact opposite. So there certainly is a conflict, but most of my money's being reserved for waiting to play in game.
And the key trigger points are gonna be, are the eagles running the ball more so than the otherwise would. So it's hint that they're gonna try and cover up that shoulder injury or again, they're averting throwing the ball deep at all, which is again, another way of doing the same thing.
And what I think actually was a notable move in the betting markets, which is almost a little bit contradictory, is of course, again, you see a lot of pressure on the Eagles line, but you've also seen pressure on Jalen Hertz's passing yards prop. So that opened in the 2 46, 2 47 range and now is dropped down to 2 42, 2 41.
So leaning into this thesis of saying that maybe he is more banged up and the passing game isn't gonna be that strong.
Yeah, I'm certainly skeptical pregame of the injury. But I also think the Eagles are one of the more adaptable teams in the league and they're going to try everything early and see what works.
And like I'm willing to, leave open the possibility that hurts, can control the ball deep and that they will connect if they jump down in a couple big plays. And that's gonna open up the entirety of the playbook, obviously, which is to say though, like you can have expectations of it being one way and that's where your prior is.
But like that can all change Gary, very quickly. And this is not a spot where I'm willing to like, really hold on and be like nah, I'm gonna hold my thesis. I'm gonna hold my thesis.
It makes me think then, the first half or first quarter under is probably a pretty solid plague because you guys made some good points already.
And we see this almost every Super Bowl, I feel is a very slow first quarter. And there's not gonna be a lot of explosive attempts probably unless the teams are getting really creative and off, off kilter.
My one hesitation there is that like the Eagles have definitely been the best team in the on script and even last against the the Niners.
Like they were terrible outside of that opening drive, which did require Devonta Smith no catch to work, but I think that's the perfect spot to lean into if you really like the under kind of at the Eagle score on the first drive. And this total gets up to 54. 53 and a half, whatever it is, that's when you take the under.
Also, how do you guys think, cuz this is important to really understand is the heartbeat of the live line and kinda who is it going to favor? Who's it gonna be quick to jump on or not? So you'd think by looking at the pregame line, it's gonna want to hug eagles for longer than it otherwise would and I would say that's not gonna be the case.
Yeah, I would say there is like deep underlying respect for the chiefs and that if the chiefs went up seven zip, I think this goes out to chiefs minus three and a half, and quickly abandon. Yeah, the Eagles.
I don't think that's right. I think this, I think it's gonna go both sides.
This line is just gonna hug close game
no matter what. We've seen time and time again where the chiefs go down and, you need to get the chiefs in a position where it's like, where you have to be scared to bet them. Because the line just hugs chiefs so much.
If Eagles are up 14, zip, I bet you the chiefs are still five and a half. Six and a half.
Yeah. Six and a half.
And
real quick, the chiefs are up 14. Zip. The Eagles are nine and a half. I still think
it's six and a half. I think it's the same both sides. Yeah, it's
probably, yeah. Early. Especially if it's early in the game.
They're not gonna abandon the chiefs too early cuz they know what the chiefs do.
No they won't abandon the chiefs, but I think they will be quicker to abandon the eagles. But, so I think the key points here as we close, is so what, we talked so much about the injuries, so what are the trigger points that you guys are looking for in the game to give you, like what's the information you need to see to give you that conviction?
So like I outlined is if I see the Eagles trying to cover up like Hertz and his passing game and leaning into the run more so than you would otherwise expect. Certainly given the game script and just how these drives are going. I think that will tip the hat to at least check that box. Herz, his injury is going to be a factor in this game.
So it doesn't just mean bet the Chiefs, cuz now you need to see the other side and check those boxes. But, so that's one box I'm gonna be looking forward to check on the Eagle side. And then on the chiefs side, just really I would love to see Mahomes get hit early and see how he bounces back from that.
I'm not talking about getting viciously murdered, but taking a good lick and maybe something a little bit that affects the ankles and see how he gets up. Does he walk it off or he's he doing that whole limp thing and he pauses and stops and holds his ankle. That's like warning, like red flag
And then of course I wanna see how what's the rotation of the chiefs wide receivers. I think that's also very important.
That's what I was gonna lead with, which is is Marcus Kemp getting snaps? I don't know if he'll be active for whatever it's, but who's actually playing?
And like the chiefs will rotate a lot of wide receivers, but not if their guys are healthy, then they won't do that. And on the Eagle side, I really just it's all like game plan specific and, how they plan to attack, which is like they, they're gonna adapt to one, game plan over another based on what's working and what's not.
And if they miss a couple deep throws early, which I think they'll, at least give it a shot. It's gonna be a very different game then if they're hitting them. And I'm basically just leaning into the Eagles are gonna do what's there for them in this particular game.
For me the chink and the armor I'm looking for everyone's gonna be looking for the chief's health. If that's seemingly okay. , the chink in the armor, I'm looking for the eagles is everyone probably knows that her struggles already in like zone blitz packages. So the chiefs have had two weeks to prepare for this with the anticipation that, let's see if his shoulder really is good or not.
And so I imagine a scenario where the chiefs are probably going to be aggressive and make Hertz have to, try to throw it down the field, stop the run up front, get pressure on 'em. And so how do they handle that? Do they let Hertz rip it downfield or do they just keep it close to the vest like you guys are saying, cuz as we know, the Eagles are great in the red zone.
If I'm the Chiefs, don't let 'em get in the red zone. Create plays, get pressure, make him make mistakes early and you get third and long type positions. make it difficult on 'em.
Again, another indication that I was thinking about too, again, that gave me this inkling that the live betting markets are going to be less forgiving of the Eagles than the Chiefs was.
When the Niners, Josh Johnson comes in and it was a Christian McCaffrey led drive, but they go down, they tie that game seven seven, it's the Eagles minus three and a half. With Johns Johnson at Quarterback
And that just speaks volumes to me At home. At home. But I just see that again, how quick the live betting markets will not respect the Eagles. And that just almost never happens for the chiefs. The chiefs always get respect.
I think even in that Super Bowl verse, the bucks, the line never wanted to make, oh, I was hugging
them the whole time.
Like they look like they were the worst offense you've ever seen. And the line's minus six or plus six, it's they're coming
back. And that's also the point Zack too is like the chiefs.
again. You watch the Chief since when they like, don't look good, they look bad. Yeah, that's they look bad. You're like, wow. I don't know if they can get a first down.
That's how that fourth cor quarter felt. Versus the Bengals. Obviously, like we said, there's context as to why, but I mean that, that offensive, that rolls out at any point in this game versus the Eagles, I don't think they're gonna have any chance.
There was that big turnover too by Mahomes versus the Bengals. Like that's like not the play. I would say that he is like typically prone to do in that type of situation. Just let the ball go. And it's because of the injury
has, it's a fluke.
Oh, it's a fluke. It's not a fluke. It just happens to happen with a healthy ankle or not healthy ankle.
I knew where you were going with that. I
was like, no way. I'm gonna let you get away with that. No way.
I think that definitely has back
to the fact that the ball slipped out of his hands.
I don't think so. It's a fluke thing. It's one point, if it happens repeatedly, fine. It's a case
you made. It's not gonna happen repeatedly. Yeah, exactly. It was a fluke event. No, but you're trying to assess the probability of something happened and the probability of anything like that. Just like other things going haywire to where it could be.
Cause you can't focus on what you're doing because there's a pain element or a weakness element that you don't have the same structure that's helping you do an accomplish whatever your objective is. That there's a weakness there's a breakdown and that can have like downstream negative and detrimental effects into these types of place.
I lean probably more towards fluke, but to Brett's point, when like the Challenger exploded, things like that happen because there is like a screw loose, right?
There's things that are like so small, but so pivotal to the whole. So there could be a degree of that. To Brett's point, I feel like, yeah, I don't disagree.
I don't know how big maybe like a percent, but I
don't disagree with the, with it in theory, I just think it would've manifested in other ways. And Mahomes, would've would've played worse than a, three 30 or
he did have a thrower to that when he was driving. He couldn't drive into it.
And so Face planted the ball around.
Yeah.
Yeah. But that was after the ag, the re aggravation. Yeah.
The other thing that, that I can't believe it's, taking this long to mention with all of these injuries is it's a perfect setup for same game partless cause massive
uncertainty.
Oh yeah. Oh, that's the thing. I was gonna ask you what are some of the, the tail outcomes that Okay. You're gonna lean into? I actually,
I thought it would be pretty difficult when I first started thinking about this game. I'm like, I really don't have much. And now I actually think I I've got a bunch of angles.
The first is what if herz is fine and what if he does connect on these deep balls? His passing props are really low, right? Because the mean projection is oh, Herz is not great. But I don't really care about the mean projection when I'm betting on tales here. And it's I'd love to bet on the talent of AJ Brown and Taha Smith.
at low odds and like the fact that the Eagles have this weird correlation thing where like sports books are gonna be pricing in that Brown and Smith won't hit together. Cuz like generally when one receiver hits it comes at the cost of another. But these two guys hit together always because it's indicative of the fact that the Eagles attack through the past.
So I love that angle. That's the first. The second is I'm willing to bet on MBS being the loan Healthy Chiefs receiver and he's gonna be the guy that's gonna get all the run. And like we saw that Mahomes is fine to lean on him. And MBS might not be the best receiver. He is still capable.
And that's interesting to your point, Judah, to add to that, if, let's play out this assumption. If Hertz is gonna go over his receivers or receivers is gonna go over or Godar.
Then that means to me it's a high scoring game, so you might as well throw in the over, you might as well toss in probably Patrick Mahomes over yards. If Herz is gonna go over with his receivers, like then it's because it's a competitive high scoring affair. Yeah. In my opinion.
Uhhuh , no, I don't disagree with that at all. I actually think the play that's really gonna drive pricing up is actually taking the jail and has rushing over.
In addition, because I think the game script where Herz goes off in the passing attack is one where they basically eliminate the run game. They've done this, they did this against the bears A couple other opponents this year where they basically say, we're not gonna run the ball, we're just gonna drop back a bunch, which just means plenty of opportunities to scramble.
Also the chiefs have a top five scramble right? Aloud they'll play a bunch of men and they a bunch. Which I think would open up in this build of the hurts, passing overs along with those receivers. I take the rush over also.
Do we think there's any coaching edge game plan, edge, like projected games, script edge.
The Eagles are automatic on fourth and one. Yeah. That's a huge edge. They're gonna go for it and they're gonna convert to,
yeah.
Yeah. They have the offensive line and obviously it hurts,
that's a good point though, that they have hurts cause it's his shoulder. Yeah. It's obviously bothering him. Are the, would the e the chiefs be as prone to go for it on fourth and two?
Fourth and one with an immobile quarterback? They're
already pretty hesitant to start. They don't go for it on fourth down that often. Yeah. But I think the key point here is everyone likes to talk about going for it on fourth down, which is like relevant, but really the most relevant. It's how good are you gonna be on those fourth downs?
It's not just to have confidence in the eagles to go for it. It's that confidence from to convert. And in a game with one and a half point total, that's a
massive edge. So what about those props too? Cause those are ones Zach, that we've leaned into in the past as well. How many four down conversions will it be?
Did you see that? That'll be everywhere.
What I was thinking about was fourth down conversion over two and a half on both sides
would have to be super juicy. Cause it's, but usually it's at one,
I'm not saying number of fourth conversions. Like highest number yards on a fourth down conversion.
Oh, I see. Will they confirm? That's interesting. Which I thought was interesting.
Oh, that's a good prop.
That's interesting. What were the odds?
Over two and a half was minus 1 0 5, under was minus 1 25.
Ooh.
I like that one.
Yeah. These hurt scrambles oftentimes get free heart when they push 'em all over he
gets a bunch of Yeah. That's a good one. I'm gonna, I'm gonna look for that one.
Anything else you're thinking about Zach? Props wise or
betting wise? I bet a bunch of props already.
I'm gonna have to add some to my list now. I did some eagles when, by seven or 10. Again, a lot of this is based on the scenario of the Eagles running and get ahead, but like Kenneth Gain will, I found one, like 11 or more Carries for, plus 400 I thought was interesting. He kind of splits, carries it seems like recently with a Miles Sanders a bit.
I got an interesting one that I mean it's, this is really high, but I like these kind of parlays.
Kelsey 10 receptions got her eight receptions for plus 2,400. That obviously assumes that, teams are throwing the ball a lot and, finding their tight ends and open space.
I think you also almost have to add, especially on the chief side, like they're gonna use Kelsey as kind of an extension of the run game for the short passing, but like the game script where that happens is one in which each team uses the middle of the field with quick, seven yard like ends. Because their run games are not working and each team ends a throwing ball, 30, 40 times. But that's an
interesting
one. I have a parlay, it's a hedge against my Eagles exposure is Mahomes over 300 passing yards and over 23 and a half points as plus 180.
I feel like those are pretty correlated, if the chiefs are gonna get to that 24, 27 mark, is Mahomes not gonna throw for 300 yards?
Is there a scenario in which the chiefs win and Mahomes doesn't go over his passing prop or like close to
it?
Yeah. Honestly, to me there isn't. It's the, it's like an eagle. You have to be a
super ugly game. Yeah. But you
can get plus 360, so one in the world. Did you ever bet chiefs minus one and a half. Or Chiefs money lineman. You can take like Mahomes 2 75 under his passing crop and the Chiefs to win at plus 360.
My biggest takeaway here is, and why, one of the reasons why I think if you're looking into tail scenarios, it's leaning into the Eagles props and scenarios. Cause I feel like we know who the chiefs are.
We know how good the chiefs are. We know what the chiefs are capable of doing, what they're not capable of doing. And we for sure know they're not gonna have their A game, they're just not gonna have their A game. Whereas the Eagles are, I feel like we don't know how good the Eagles are.
Yeah. Maybe the Eagles are awesome.
I have a good
comp. There is that scenario. I feel like that you can't take that off the table or it's oh yeah, the Eagles ran through an easy schedule and crushed the Giants three times and beat a ghost of a Niners team and,
Weren't that good.
Who they,
and even a Gimpy Mahomes with no wide receivers is able to beat 'em by a touchdown. Yeah.
Where I think my confidence comes from with the Eagles is I think everyone in the NFL has been banged up this year except the Eagles with exception of Hertz's, shoulder, like as far as like playoffs, like all the teams were fucked up.
The Eagles remind me of the Ravens when they were blowing everyone's doors off, got into the playoffs and stubbed their toe versus the Titans, a team that they matched up poorly against. Lamar obviously at that time, especially not a great passer run, heavy ravens. required getting up early to, to win games.
To me, like this Eagles team, not the same type of team exactly, but I feel like that's like the best comp coming into this game. And I just personally don't see the Chiefs as like a Titans type team to counter what the Eagles want to do. So it's really just do the Eagles play their type of game and get ahead, like the Ravens team of 2018 or 19.
Then they're off to the races. Like when the, that, that year when the Ravens played the Patriots, the Rams, these teams like, I mean it was like as soon as they got up and got momentum, they would run it every down, know they're gonna run it and there's nothing you can do to stop it.
And now Eagles don't have that type of running game, but just from like a momentum type team, that's to me what the Eagles are. And so that's why. Getting a lead in playing their game is so important for the Eagles. Cause if they do, I mean it could get ugly.
So Yeah. I
like that.
Also too, there's something that we all have talked about a lot is like how important it is to have an alpha wide receiver.
Most of us like just studs at wide receiver. That's what the Eagles have and the chiefs don't have that. Now again, a lot of all these types of observations are like almost always mitigated by the asterisk of, does the other side have Patrick Mahomes? Cuz then it like mitigates like anything else that's going on and basically everything else becomes neutralized because it's Patrick Mahomes.
But we've seen instances where in fact, that's not enough, especially when he is not healthy.
One other thing I wanted to point out real quick is if you really look at it, have the eagles been truly respected on a macro level all season?
We were slow. We were slow. I We were slow.
Yeah. And then we were bullish on them when everyone else seemed to jump off ship after those bad weeks against Washington in Indianapolis.
But even into the super, remember the line opened in a neutral field.
Eagles, have been basically the best team all season, as far as like really blowing the doors off, teams winning games, they should being competitive dominant, like Eagles have played like the best team all season, but they haven't been treated like the best team all season until that line came out for the Super Bowl because of all the chief's injuries.
That's, I'd say that's true. Yeah. So to me that was a, we don't love the Eagles. It's like we're fading the chiefs with a team that has all this momentum. But like the market is still not even believing, like to what Brett said the market will immediately get off the Eagles if they go down seven.
Like everyone, like assumes they're not the best team in the N nfl.
If you go back, Brett, to the, first picture we had here about the super odds. Yeah. From like week three on, it was pretty clear the Eagles were the team to beat. Like a lot of that has to do with oh, you looked at their schedule and had a clear week. But look, this trend line from September 20th , December 27th, whatever, it's week three is pretty clear and from a books, but the
point is well taken though. Yeah. And from the books, you're probably right.
I'm just saying from like the market sentiment, because I felt it too, like just denial. Like the same. And I felt the same way about the Ravens, because they had a great game plan A, but they had, we knew they didn't have a game plan B if they ran into a team that knew how to stop a or got a lead against 'em.
But I don't know. I don't, the Eagles haven't they haven't had to play anyone that could step up and put 'em in their place and be physical and I don't know if the chiefs were that team, but we'll find out. , we'll find
out. We'll are we gonna live Bet this game? Are we gonna do the game trade?
That's good with me.
You wanna come to New York? Zack? No.
Florida's warm . It's
wonderful in Florida right now. It's
really nice. Oh yeah. Jesus's in Florida too right now.
Okay, so that's, that wraps it up. That's the N F L season for 2022. I guess we'll come back, potentially do game trade. Do our last one of those as well. Maybe you can dial in Zach. and intra game and tell us your favorite actually.
Okay. I'll just pop on my computer. Yeah. And say hey. All in.
All alrighty. Thanks everyone for listening. We're about to put our heads down too and just really start to hammer out some stuff for next season's gonna be totally different, a world different.
So looking forward to that. Thanks Darnell. Thanks Dan. Thanks Scoreline Analytics for jumping in. Thanks everyone for listening all season long. We'll see you Sunday and then next season. And that's closing bell.
