Episode Transcript
NFL Week 11 betting market outlook. Woowee, we've had a couple choppy weeks in Circa, two and threes one, three and ones one and four last week.
Still Continue to be successful in live betting, angling into deep outta the money plays and looking for opportunities to capture mispriced risks.
We've been so successful.
Live Ben. actually CI has really been a disaster over the past couple weeks. And we got off such a hot start and I just assumed oh, okay, like our worst case scenario is re two. Cause that's what it was for basically the first half of the season.
Yeah. Or five weeks in a row. So on the one hand comforting. But the other point it's why am I being profitable and, one of these aspects and am I not capitalizing in circa?
And that part's been, a little more frustrating. But it's just means for further research.
Exciting.
Pre-game betting, which is really what circa is.
And has a whole element of the game theory, the static lines, et cetera. But you have, so you have contest, you have pre-game betting, then you have live bedding. And all three are different strategies, different skill sets.
Live betting is completely different. Beast, way more control. Requires, discipline, durability trying to anticipate game scripts and when to capitalize on the volatility in your game.
None of those are obviously relevant when it comes to pre-game betting.
So let's go through our week 10 drive quality scoreboard. Recap the consensus market power rankings. And then dive into NFL week 11.
Anything stick out to you on our drive quality scoreboard? The Bears once again. Yep. Deviating from that final score decisively. We have bears 34 earned points with the Lions 25 earned points.
The one that really stands out is the cults which I'm not sure if it's more a statement about the cults. And certainly they're better with Matt Ryan, but I think it might just be talking about how bad the defense is at this point. They like cannot generate any pressure whatsoever.
And, our drive quality has and is giving up 10 more points than would actually happen. That's certainly one of the stands out, the bears for sure. Even the dolphins, again, sheer volume or points. Like one of the concerns for me was like, okay, I like thought this offense was kinda dependent on like matchups and receipt, but they've shown they can win in more their own ways and they were dominant in the run game, which is somebody called out live. But they can win and this offense is legitimately right.
Another interesting one is cowboys packers. So we do have the packers winning 32 to 31, but just looking at those time, weight, average margins, the time, weight, average win probabilities, again, time, weight, average margin for the cowboys, plus three time weight, average win probability 62% and end up losing.
Vikings. I don't think there's really anything else to really say about this game that hasn't already been said, but the drive quality scoreboard builds 37 Vikings 30, and this is almost the exact type of game where, the drive quality is supposed to stand out and really tell you who played better outside of that final score.
I think everyone knows there was a bunch of weird stuff happening in that game, I think there's a lot of people reevaluating the Vikings now because they beat the best team in the NFL when in fact, I mean they shouldn't have. In fact, according to the drive quality, they shouldn't have even covered the deepest number that was even on the board.
Yeah. Which is that minus six and a half. Time, weight, average win probability for the Vikings 19%. I think most people were forgetting actually, that the Vikings were down by double digits.
Time, weight, average margin is a full touchdown.
Huge time weighted average margins this week as opposed to previous weeks. We've got sixes 8, 7, 10, 7, 8. Huge margins. Yeah, that's true. And some of these games, weren't close from start to finish.
Bucks, Seahawks drive, quality bucks, 30 Seahawks, 19.
So in fact, a larger delta there than even the realized score, Seahawks minus eight time weight, average margin time weight, average between probability 21%. What did we, what did a lot of the market miss on this game?
The C wouldn't be able to generate any pressure. So the team that had I think they were leading the NFL in for past four or five weeks, and they had nothing. And maybe we should have been listening to Kayla more. Rashad White seemed to reinvigorate the run game, not, he did call that one out.
He did call that one out. I'm still not upgrading the box. , I don't think they're particularly good. Maybe it's a tone down on the Seahawks defense which was showing signs of life and a good reminder that defense really does fluctuate over the course of the season.
And buying at the short term defensive trends is probably a losing strategy.
Through the first 4, 5, 6 weeks of the season, we kept referencing our pre-season previews.
And we got away from that as we got towards mid-season. And we've forgotten about the volatility of teams and also how we've had you have this kind of first half, second half phenomenon. Of, wow, there's some team kinda really breaking out of what pre-season expectations were.
. And then as you got to that middle half of the season, there was like this reversion back closer, not always, but closer to what the preseason priors in fact, were, and I'm not saying that this is what's gonna happen between these two teams, but yeah, a little bit of buying on the top and, selling the bottom,
it's, yeah, it's very rarely a straight line up, especially for a team with such low expectations like the, again, they might end up towards the top there and I wouldn't be shocking for them to, win a playoff game. But it's not a straight line.
I think this is one of the reasons why too. We're so effective at live betting is because our pre-game thesis is our working draft of what we think is gonna happen in this game. But once we see counter evidence, we'll abandon that quite quickly.
You're looking for certain things to happen. And if those things aren't happening, then you need to start a fresh evaluation of the game based on, again, the still the tenets of what you understand about these teams and how you expect them to interact with one another.
But, I think we do a really good job of not being stubborn and holding on to some sort of pre-game notion and just forcing the issue in game, even if it's not playing out on the field.
But yeah. Was a successful Sunday live betting. Wasn't our most successful.
The Saints were pretty much the biggest loser. Yeah. I know. For my book.
Yeah. I was gonna say Monday night for me at least made up for it. I had my best life been and game in the season. I hit the plus 10 and half the money line. All up line that
you were one of those beneficiaries of that garbage touchdown in the, of that
garbage touchdown. That's true. Even with that, it would've been a yes. Probably still my best
idea, which just, but you had a little bit of a rocket flare.
Yeah. And I think
it was also like a real good example of what a Liveing process looks like. But. Yeah. The Saints, that was one thing that didn't exactly
go was planned.
Yeah, we had the Saints plus seven, plus six and a half, and we fell a little bit asleep at the wheel because Saints were down 10 and that's when we were buying them. And then they come back, tie the game, and the live line came all the way back to Saints minus one, minus two.
But there was no flirtation even with locking in any gains or hedging. And then it slipped away. Um,
All right. Week 11, consensus market power rankings. Chiefs. New number one.
Josh Allen has put together three troubling performances in a row. I think this is much Take the Points podcast actually, but something I've been thinking about for a while is like Josh Allen has been making just poor reads and crucial times, which seems sticky, right?
It's again, it's a classic example of if you were doing a data science study, you'd find it's totally random and noisy, over a huge sample. But for one particular individual, the rule could still apply. But like in the biggest moments, he has trouble with decision making. And forcing him throws, and I think I thinkt put it best, and he is I remember watching the divisional game against the Texan, so it was 18 or 2019 when he had some bonehead fumble or like lateral that ended up as a fumble.
I'm like, that's almost indicative of the type of player that hes and he's terrific, but it comes with some bad red zone interception sometimes.
Unnecessarily reckless. Yeah. Yeah, and we've gotten cracks now. One of the things that we've talked about over the first eight, nine weeks of the season is, there's some really bad teams and then most of the league is consolidated between somewhere between the fourth best team and 29th best team.
But now we even have the cracks at the top. And also the other element here is that Josh sale is not a hundred percent healthy.
So I would say in, in, in my book, the bills would still be the best team.
That's the team I would still bet on to win the Super Bowl. And Drive Quality still has the bills, right? Number one. Yeah. So from a market power rankings perspective though, chiefs are the new number one. Then we got the bills at two, followed by the Eagles, Ravens up to number four, up one spot over the course of the week, and then we got cow was at five down one spot.
And then to round out the top 10, we have Niners Bucks, bangles, Vikings, dolphins, Vikings, just upgraded two spots. So still just a borderline top 10 team and still a lot of disagreements, standard deviation, five spots.
I think I made this point a couple weeks ago and I'll reiterate it now, which is we know who the Vikings are. It's like a stable it's, they are, there's
actually nothing that we've seen thus far that would say.
There's nothing to say otherwise. And that might just be good enough in this environment.
Cowboys. We have them as a borderline top 10 team at ninth. I'm very skeptical of the cowboys. I'm
pretty skeptical of cowboys too. I just. It's hard to replace them. But it's like they, I'm skeptical about the Cowboys, but I'm also skeptical
about all the other teams.
And then at the bottom, Texans consensus, 32nd ranked team standard deviation. Zero.
This is a buy sign though. This is almost unanimously every single time been a flashing buy sign with respect to being oversold.
Texans, Panthers, bears, lions, Steelers. Bottom five teams. Biggest standard deviation there is the lions at about four and a half spots. Most industry analysts have them ranked as a bottom two. Team ppf 5 38, all ranked 30th. Football Outsiders ranked 20th and drive qualities more in that range of
21st.
But the bears ones also are draft quality as 17th. And this is not even so recent. Oh, yeah. Wow. It's not even so recent that that bears have been popping. It's like really come alive the last four weeks after they changed the the offense.
But they've been doing well in our drive quality for a little while now. And I think it's every village in and the 30 ranking is way off.
So some of the biggest weekly changes, st down four spots, readers down four spots.
Fair makes sense.
Down three spots even after the win. Versus the Cowboys, people not believing in them.
Ramps
down three spots continue to look like trash. Specially Russell Wilson. Yeah, I think it's obviously still looks good, but man, that offense and Okay.
Betting on Russell Wilson
last week. I gotta get some clips of me talking about Russell Wilson, the preseason.
That's right. Oh
yeah. Oh yeah. You nailed that one.
Literally he is even worse than anyone I thought.
Yeah. And it's like funny to think that like what if Russell Wilson was good? Brock be the best team in the nfl. And that's what I
was saying. Yeah, too.
Yeah, it was actually, that was actually on par. I was cause saying I'm like Juah, if you're right about Russell was not, he's not gonna be terrible. And maybe even he the ceiling then this like the best team in the division. I got
both sides so wrong cause I got the Raiders so unbelievably right with receiver depth and lack of pass rushing.
But that's all that matters though. Cause that was our biggest offseason. Yeah. I didn't bet
the Broncos.
Whatever. They're a disaster. They're a disaster. This has gotta be a good rule of thumb for me is that every time I think I wanna leave off a team, you should give 'em one more week. And I've lost a ton of money on the Broncos this year.
More than the
Jax
Jackson, maybe money cuz of all lines faster. Yeah. I've hit three all lines with em this year. I made up for it. Yeah.
And halfway through that game you are still very confident liking. The brown. Yeah.
I, my debt was looking great.
You're counting your money a little bit there. I was counting
your money. I was, I cash
that one. You're counting money so early that, you didn't, cause you didn't
passenger the passengers hit on one play and I was like, okay, I just need one more score.
, meaning it went up 10 nothing. And I just needed the titans not to score on that drive to get my, I didn't work.
For you to get like the perfect price. And that's the thing is of course. Like again, you can pat yourself in the back sometimes and say oh, I was really patient and like I got the be The thing is like you can't always get the bottom or you can't always get the No.
I was telling myself this was the point. No, I was fine. Cause I came in with a, I was like, this is the point where I buy You're gonna lose bets, but.
All I know is I took Titans six and a half plus. Six and a half. Yeah. Which again, I left a ton of money on the table cause I could have bet Titan's Alt or Titan's money line or whatever.
And this is one of the reasons why we be a lot of deep outta the money place. Cause if you're right then you make a killing rather than just being right And I didn't need any of those points. , it turns out. But what I'm saying is I got the Titans plus six and a half made it on the game trade.
You could have gotten Titans plus six and a half as well. Yeah, that's true.
What else? We got Washington with the biggest upgrade up seven spots.
Oh, up four spots. Jets up four spots, and then a flurry of teams up two in one spot.
Yeah. Washington. No. This was so in the cards, we knew could do it. We didn't learn anything to do about the team. The executed perfect game plan.
Maybe, certainly not seven spots. No,
no. One or two fine. I'm, I
count, but again, the market was off because again, even drive quality was higher, and actually this one thing I wanna do an analysis of is how much is the drive quality power ranking, a leading indicator to market?
So you basically take the drive quality ranking of any team and then put it on a lag and see if it how closely does it overlap? Especially, when the season's over and do some of this This analysis is gonna be really interesting.
Jags still one of the highest standard deviations, 8.1 spots. In fact, the highest standard deviation dry quality has the Jags ranked 11th, ESPN catching up 12, but PF 28 5, 38, 30 first, still evaluating the JS as a bottom bucket.
Team, largest other standard deviations Seahawks once again, cards, Rams, jet Titans, chargers, Raiders, all there. All with almost basically six spots of standard deviation across industry analysts.
To go in to the week 11, slate. Titans, Packers.
Packers still plus two and a half, live down seven. Zip. Totals dropped 42 and a half, so that's already dropped. Four, four points. I knew that 46 and a half was high.
Browns Bills. Browns plus eight and a half in Buffalo. Games
in Detroit.
When did that happen? This afternoon. Late this afternoon.
Cause I bet the alt under 41 and a half plus 180 thinking I saw the snow on the forecast and I'm like this line's only going one direction.
So wait, did it snap
back?
Literally? Yeah, it went back to 48 and a half. Literally it did
go all the way down to 40.
It went down to 40, then he came back to 42 and a half. And I went to actually go cash out my debt. Cause I'm like, yeah, I don't think this game's gonna get played in Buffalo.
And as I'm going to check, my bet was void. So I got my money back.
Oh cuz they changed location. Does they change location? That's one of the few things that will Yes. Allow you to get, they'll move the and so what, it's just because of the snow.
There's 60 inches apparently. Can't have anyone drive to the game. Wow. It's like you got
your oyster car. Do you know for getting any of that here in the city?
No. It's lake effects now in Buffalo.
Ah, gotcha. So how are you thinking about this one? Eight and a half full.
Over a touchdown.
I don't have a read on, on the Browns. Yep. All season.
All season. All season. Even last week I liked the Browns plus three and a half. But with the acknowledgement, I'm like, I do not have a feel in the Browns.
It's the same thing as the Eagles Texans, where it's I would've made the spread that game. The spread was 14. I was like, I would've made the spread 12 and a half. I think eight and a half is too high. Am I betting this game? No. . But I'm, what are you looking for?
Live? What Brown team's gonna show up? What happens after the scripted place? They've shown that like they can hang with anyone when things are working and if not. The other thing is I wonder if the bills go with a heavy run game that might be an under underplay.
Browns have the absolute worst to run defense if they want to milk this game and not put Allen in a lot of passing situations. I can see that unfolding.
I thought we were gonna see that versus the Vikings and just like when we were on the game trade, I was nonstop, ridiculing the Bill's game plan.
Yeah. And how they were using Josh. Yeah.
All right. Eagles at the colds. Eagles minus seven reduced juice on draftings total 45 and a half. I've been hearing like a lot of murmurs that people are upgrading the colds. That how
we saw, I saw nothing. I saw one week
change.
The only change you would make is Alright, is this team gonna have Ellinger or is it gonna have Matt Ryan? So it's gonna have Ryan. Yeah. So I'm saying that's the only event different of how you would evaluate that team from a week to week basis, but just because they beat the rate, if anything, it's more of a condemnation of the Raiders.
Yeah, that's what I was saying. Yeah.
They put up 35 in our drive quality scoreboard. But like, I think that says more about the Raiders than it does yeah. The cols,
And market consensus power rankings. One week change for the cols zero spots. Yeah.
It's also, it's a different ballgame when that Ryan has the pass rush of the Raiders that interested the non-existent task question.
I think I'll just take a bunch of sacks and I don't think offense is gonna be able to do that much. But the Coles defense is legitimate and I guess they can copy the same. Game is Washington and try and just bleed out long, long drives.
Like I can see that where I guess working, but that's again, that's a live angle. . Yeah. And their offensive line hasn't shown any ability to block well, but Taylor Rush Roger with the Yards last week, you can do it again.
I didn't heavily bet that Eagles Washington game really at all I bet was I saw the beginning and the end of the game. I bet Washington plus 18 and a half again left a ton of points on the board. Again, cuz didn't need any of them, it turns out. But one of the things that gave me a little bit of conviction to do that was, I think it was just the prior week when AR June was in town, we were watching.
The Texans Eagles and we're just like the Eagles, like we're just getting pushed around, especially on the run game. That Jordan Dam and that's how Washington won was through, I was on the ground. And I imagine that's what the culture gonna wanna do as well. And at the Eagles are going through some sort of mid-season growing pains and they're gonna get pushed around on the ground.
Colts are not a type of team that you necessarily wanna face on the road. At plus seven. And given that the market hasn't upgraded the Kohl, Again, it's just more anecdotally on the podcast I've been listening to. I keep hearing people talk about, oh, I'm upgrading the Cols. I'm upgrading the Cols mostly because oh, the Colts won a game and most people got their faces ripped off because everyone was levering up into Raiders in that last game, which I don't know why you would do that cuz the Raiders were already banged up and they're not a good team to begin with.
Jets at New England Jets. Plus three and a half total over under 38.
You know what I like here? A little dicey special here. Let's get Jet's. Money line,
Jet's money line on the other. We've got two quarterbacks extremely prone to pressure. We, everyone knows, but Wilson, but Mac Jones is right there with Sac Wilson.
I think his EPA is like negative 0.7 under pressure. Wilson's is negative 0.87. That's insane rate of being bad. It's like essentially taking a sack every time you're under pressure. And the Jetson Patriots are both top 10 pressure rate. These are the kind of things that kill drives. Both teams wanna keep the ball on the ground that's gonna keep the clock moving.
And at the end of the day, I trust the Jets defense more. And I trust the Jets offensive paras, whether, I don't think it's Zach Wilson, but I think it's the running backs. It's the, it's Garrett Wilson. It's the coordinators. I think they're just the, they're the better at team, the Patriots.
And again, that's gonna be ugly, slow, and
don't hate the al either,. Especially cuz you can get out of that in the first quarter.
I don't wanna ignore or forget that the jets are more banged up now than they were back when even off the you made a great call in the Jets versus Packers for instance.
Yeah. That was d This is a different scenario though.
This is more I think it's two bad teams, not bad teams. Two okay. Teams. And the market is saying there's actually a pretty decent lean towards the Patriots. And I'm like, no, that's more like A1 50 game. That's the play. That's a better way of framing it and articulating it. , it should not be three and a half, it should be a.
I, I don't trust Zach Wilson. Again, he showed some restraint over the last couple games. Yeah. Not being a total reckless idiot. Terrible against Patriots.
And I don't necessarily wanna say let's turn a corner. No,
I'm not suggesting that
I feel more comfortable with the three and a half. In fact, I think that could really come into play in this game. And if Wilson is showing restraint, , even if the Jets go down 10 zip. I would be willing to bet the Jets live if he's showing restraint. And he doesn't look like a crazy mofo. Yeah, I hear it. I don't know if I wanna bet the Jets right off the bat on the money line.
It's a value play that's a pure, these numbers I think should be different. And I'll make, 15, 20 of these over the course of the season and I want to go 58%.
Lions Plus three in New Jersey versus Giants over under 45.
I like Giants.
I'm conflicted here. Why do you like the Giants?
I do not trust. Go
And still on the road in elements. It's not gonna be great weather, even if there's a blizzard up in Buffalo and we're not gonna get necessarily a snowflake. It's gonna be cold at minimum. This
is, yeah.
Goth not good against,
and Darnell says Goth has little hands. Goth
does have, that's true. That's very true. I like that.
Rid hands in week 11 in New Jersey. I, that's not something I wanna bet on. Yeah,
yeah. I don't hate it. I don't hate it at all. And like they, they've proven time and time again they can beat inferior opponents. I think
that's the kick
And remember on our drive quality, the bears blew them out. The lions. Yeah. The bears blew out.
The lions. Yeah. Yeah. I think, but like this is, oh, the lions like went out, right?
I forgot they won last week. Yeah. Yeah. I like the Giants here. Too much respect for the Lions, especially in a road game against the team that likes the Blitz and go's not good.
Yeah. I'm with you.
Panthers plus 13 on the road in B. Over under 41 and a half. This is something we see like over and over again. Like these huge panthers, like super low
totals. Yeah. Also, it's gonna be a baker game. Again, it's, this is the same take as what I articulated before, but I make this line 13.
Absolutely not. Am I betting either side? No.
Yeah. Cause the RA is just the volatility and then it's like too loud. Yeah. And also they're gonna lose straight up or they're gonna win by 30. Yeah.
That's why I wonder you risk a half unit, you put a quarter unit on Panther's money line and you put another one on Ravens minus 23 and a half.
Yeah. Alt line. Yeah, it's a big Polish middle, but Yeah.
I just don't think the pan, the ravens are this good?
The other thing that should be mentioned is like the defense is finally getting healthy, like the cornerbacks are finally getting healthy.
They're good. The ravens are legitimately good. I think Mark Anders might be back here. Losing Bateman's tough. Still
no receivers. Still no Bateman,
no, no Bateman. Do Renee's been fine and his, I'm like, look, Ravens have built this offense for 3, 4, 5 years now without any receivers.
Washington minus three at Houston over under 41. Another pretty low total. I'm surprised by this one.
The total?
No, just the spread. We were talking about the consensus. Worst team that's buy signal.
Yeah. But it's not that big of a price.
I don't hate Houston
here. I don't hate Houston. I don't like Houston
It's just three. You don't get me excited. Betting they might not be 32nd but worth, they might not be the worst team in the league. Or they are, and they shouldn't be consensus for us, whatever. But three point spread's not gonna be excited, that's true. But like Washington still is the better team.
That's what I'm surprised that the line is actually so low. That there's underlying support for Houston. But who's Benington Houston.
I dunno who's been in
Houston. I don't know who's been in Houston. Especially when the other side is Washington. You just an interesting, one of the best teams in the league. Yeah,
I would definitely lean Houston, but it would be one of those that you feel and look really stupid if you bet it and lose. Exactly.
Bears plus three at Atlanta over under 49 and a half. But you might have to
close for here to, for that song.
I can't even offer any actionable views on this game cuz it involves bears.
Okay. And something I've been talking about all season, which continues to be proven correct is, I cannot make anyone any money on the Bears. Yeah.
Okay. I love bears this week. There, there are a few things. So you don't
think you're buying the top? No.
Cause again, don't, you're, I'm sourcing the information.
Okay. Okay. Everyone knows about the offense changing. Justin Fields didn't have the design rushes and now he does the running play action. Right? Everyone knows that. Oh, people say, oh, it's priced in. It's not. They've been the second best offense buyer drive quality since they made that change after the mini buy.
And again, it's important to emphasize the mini buy part. Cause it's not just like a random, oh, let's endpoint sample. It's no, this is a team that's specifically made a schematic change and made a concerted effort. And it's going to, it is a fundamental difference in the team.
That's the first thing to note. The second is and they're like, they're second best in that span. And the market is still pricing on the 21st best, at least according to the in Predict spreads, which is like the best we can do at isolating the offense.
So I don't think they're moving them far enough, but that's not really what does it for me in this matchup. The Falcons insist on running the ball no matter what, right? I have a chart in the article and it's just every week they're running 15% above expected every single week. Doesn't matter.
The, and it's , the matchup against the bears is almost meaningless. It's okay, they're not a great run defense. They're 23rd best that run defense. But teams are still averaging negative epa. When you run against them, it's still ineffective to run against them. And like the way teams even taking advantage against the bears is they're passing, the passing defense is dreadful.
And like you almost neutralize the match up here cuz the Falcons are just gonna run the ball and it's gonna turn the defense into every other defense. And the Falcons are gonna do the same thing that they've done the past bunch of weeks. And it's okay we're, the market is still not caught up to the pricing the bears offense.
And they're certainly, I don't think pricing in the match up correctly, which is like Bears bad defense that makes the Atlanta offense better as opposed to saying no, they're not gonna take advantage of the Bears. I wrote up two minus two and a half and the bears to score 21 points plus 1 95. I don't hate moving that line out even further. I think we really have to pay attention. To the last four weeks.
Look, are they gonna be the second best offense in the league? No, but I think it's way closer to second than it is 29th. Also, like our drive quality has about 17th huge Delta. Yeah, the Falcons are bad.
That's the opening there is that Falcon still aren't good themselves, but I'm Make your prognostication wrong by betting on the bears right now.
Yikes. You
doing the Tline or are you betting on the, the, I took the plus three.
So
I'm dead. Yeah, exactly. But I feel like you're betting it on on my account. The other thing I just wanna say was, you probably a good point earlier about. When we look back at like the volatility chart of each team.
Yeah. Like it would be so unsurprising to look back on the Falcons who ended up in season six and 11 being like, oh yeah, remember when we thought they were like good from like weeks six to week like nine. We're like, oh, this Falcons team might be good. And they totally fell off a, yeah.
That's how I see this chart going. And I see the
bears kinda creeping up. , I can see that. I also think this total is very high, 49 and a half, especially for Falcons team that does wanna run the ball. I can see this kind of playing out similar to Seahawks Falcons from Yeah.
Earlier in the season. And that was below 49 and a half. I would love this also, especially live Bear's. Definitely one of the better scripted. Teams.
They're moving in the chart to the top right quad.
Yeah. It seems like they're moving like that in that direction and all metrics.
Yeah. Sure.
Is it the bears, start off, go up seven, zip whatever this moves up and above, some of those key numbers. 51, 52, even 54. Then live. I think I, I like that under again, it's been dangerous playing bears under cel last four, five weeks. Yeah.
Rams plus three plus 100 at the Saints over under 39. Second lowest total on the board with the Jets and Patriots. At 38, the lowest on the board.
Stafford's back right without a cup, but no cup and no. And the Saints have not looked good.
Saints have looked bad. I'm ready to give up on the Saints and when you're ready to give up on the Saints in a spot against Ramps Defense, which can't generate pressure, like the spot's gonna be good for the Saints.
That's when you buy Thes
at home. Saints missing three O line players. ,
I don't know if it matters against the ramps.
Oh boy. The Saints are like one of those teams early in the season. Again, one of the, like the live bets that you're most viscerally calling me out on was a, with the Saints that was back with James Winston talking about how the saints can't score or the saints can't score. You hated the saints to begin the season and then there was it was an A and now, but now it's of shown itself again.
Yeah. The thing is the Rams defense is not the steel's defense on the road.
Raiders plus three at Denver.
41 is the total, are you gonna be enticed by the Broncos? Once again, I think I'll
sprinkle a similar pet play to what I did last , but I'll sprinkle it this time. It's just when you think it's time to give up and this, it's a bet on the Vegas past defense being bad.
It's almost a prop that it's not even I'm not sure I'll pull the trigger though. I don't know if it's worth it. But you can also make the same case by the Raiders, by the way. But it's this offense was actually pretty good for a while. And they really fell off quick.
But it's, I don't want to go into Denver, the best defense in the league and a stickier one.
Wanna lean Denver as well. Minus three reduced juice right now. If this creeps under three, there's been nothing to buy on the Raiders. Nothing to buy in the Raiders? No.
Cowboys minus one and a half on the road at Minnesota over under 47 and a half. It's Minnesota.
This is a good live play for me. Vi's good, scripted cowboys not so good scripted They lean on their run game too much early. The Cowboys and Dak, the City Lamb is a, and I like the Vikings just have a way to make these one possession games no matter what.
They're winning by three scores, one possession game, losing by three scores, one possession game.
Yeah. I wish the Vikings would've actually lost not just theoretically lost like they did in our drive quality scoreboard, because I feel like there's a lot of buy on the Vikings and sell off the Cowboys here. I think how Dallas covers this is you have an implosion by cousins.
We're just like, we have good dad.
Nah, I don't think that obviously that can happen, but the way I, that can definitely happen. The way I see it is this is a three pick fumble, six type cousin's game.
The cowboys pressure that hasn't been as dominant Reasserts itself.
This is an important note that I came across, anecdote Michael Parsons was not past freshman last week.
Had an injury on the linebacker and he was playing linebacker. That's a huge loss to the defense. That injury based. Yeah. Yeah. Or like he was replacing someone and playing the linebacker as post pass rush. That, that's note worthy.
Yeah, that will be a good one to live bed for sure.
Bengals minus four at Pittsburgh over under 41. Bengals we know been sacked the most in the league. We know Burrow and that offensive line. Super vulnerable to any team that even has a modicum of a pass rush.
Much less an actually good pass rush.
But here's the thing. Here's the thing about the Bengals. That,
and the beng still Jamar chase it's self True,
true. And they've still shown that they can put up performances without them.
My bull take is that I actually don't think matchups matter that much on the defensive side for people playing against angles. Bur creates his own pressure, right? What I'm trying to say is that bur Burrough's gonna take his sacks no matter what.
You gotta build that in. , right? It's like the fact whether he's playing the Cowboys or the Steelers, the sack are gonna be there. Or he playing the Cowboys, the Steelers or the Falcons he's gonna take, but think
it's matter of whether it's gonna be three or, I'm
saying, but that's my point. Think it, and I don't think it's match dependent,
which is something that I should look into honestly. There's a quantity. My, my gut feeling there is that actually the returns do diminish. It's not a matter of like quality of past rush. I don't think it's like a linear line of sex. I see it as an attractive spot to attack their secondary, which I don't know if it still hurt.
It was really hurt last week, but it's not good even when they're healthy. And I still do trust that the mans can get the ball of their weapons. I might buy some alt line stuff, but I'm not betting the four. I just, if I see it then like if they're clicking early, that's a for sure.
And they can really run with the
yeah, definitely possible. Steelers have given up 30 points only twice this year to Eagles, and the bills none than that. 16 points to Miami. I just only give up 10 points last week
and they played already, like week one. And that was, yeah, that
was the crazy, the five interception game. Yeah.
I don't feel comfortable bending the Bengals of who we know the Bengals to be this season.
They're just not dependable.
Chiefs minus five at the Chargers over under 52. I don't like paying the Chargers at the margin, but unless the Chargers are still beat up and not gaining any players meaningfully back from what they were, I mean outside of those first two drives or whatever, versus nines, they did absolutely nothing. Nothing. They just, as bad as everyone thought they were potentially gonna look, maybe even worse.
Worse. It was worse.
But the Williams and Allen practice today, totally different offense. I think.
So you're saying they could potentially be back?
They both, I think, we need Dan our resident entry specialist, but I think there's a good chance they both play.
I mean if they both play then the five, which by the way
also time out the line is signaling that it started at seven and they both this Oh, and they both practice.
Yeah. Thank you. Then. And they both got in practice sessions, which definitely suggests a and line move and suggest that plank. Okay.
Yeah. So it's a bet on a bet which I hate . Yep. I'm
not, yeah. I like the volatility in this matchup.
Yeah. I think the charge is probably something I like for circa at this point in time especially.
We just need to roll the dice probably with it. Yeah. If they do both play, then this probably comes down to three. If at maybe even under that. They're not gonna be near a hundred percent and Mike Williams is not a guy I really like when he's banged up. You can't separate
anyway, he's just gonna make those contested catches,
right?
Yeah. This is, by the way, this is gonna be Caius Darius Tony season,
who's the two wide receivers not playing juju from a concussion.
And I think MBS also,
Yeah, they're, I feel like all those receivers are just all replacement players. Yeah.
All right. Last Monday night, Niners minus eight at Arizona over under 43 and a half.
Is Murray gonna play or is it gonna be McCoy again?
Unclear. And either of them gonna play or both? Is They're both. They're both hurt. Cliff said he is gonna go with one of them. Oh. And this games in Mexico City and Hopkins. Mexico City Hopkins didn't practice today, all of a sudden, but maybe Hollywood Brown's back.
I just dunno what to make. That's
not fair. Trade off. I actually forgot they even had Hollywood Brown anymore. .
Yeah. It's possible to have all of their weapons back. Finally, there's this shahan premium little mortgages love shahan. It's like this obsession and he has all his toys back, like something that's getting lost in the Sunday night game.
It's nighters look bad. The one's look bad.
A lot of pre-game bets on cards that just have not materialized, but we're getting at a point now at a full eight, like that's a pretty deep sell off. Yeah.
Though the most important injury line item would be Hopkins. Cuz we already know what this offense looks like without him, even with Brown in the lineup. And it's not explosive. It's not potent, it's not effective.
Yeah. So no Hopkins, no bet for me;
Alrighty, that wraps up our NFL Week 11 betting market outlook. Thanks everyone for joining and listening and commenting. Thanks Dan. Thanks Darnell. Mass close bell.
