Episode Transcript
Welcome to the NFL Week 10 market outlook. I'm Brett Matthew, along with my co-host Judah Fortgang and special guest this week CalebBets, makes frequent appearances on the BookIt surgical stream, more of a prop specialist, whereas, Judah and I, we dabble in props for sure, but wouldn't say that's our primary focus.
So bringing Caleb to the table adds a nice compli. To what we do here and hear some of his thoughts as we recap week nine, look at some of the market consensus power rankings, and then move in to previewing week 10.
So as we look at our week nine drive quality scoreboard, again, giving us a sense of how these teams played from a drive-by drive perspective give us a more accurate sense of how these teams performed an x-ray seeing through that final score.
We'll be releasing a note on this pretty soon, to give a deeper dive on exactly the methodology, give you more insight into the process and how we're coming to some of these conclusions. But judah, anything when you take a look at this, that sticks out to you? Not representative of some of those final scores that we saw on Sunday.
A couple things are a little surprising to me. One, the Packers. They seem to actually move the ball fine. The issues were just red zone turnovers.
But perhaps it really was only those drives that they were able to generate any offense. Another thing really success that Bears actually come out on top against the dolphin here which I think in most people's heads the Dolphins are the superior team leading most of the way right as our time weighted average probability t as we call it, 66%.
Okay, of course the Dolphin's won. But the bears really put a pretty good showing there. And I think our, drive quality scoreboard reflects that. One other Is, as we were talking about offline, the Cardinal Seahawks which maybe is a segue into one of my favorite parts, but the Seahawks again, didn't seem like they were really leading for most of the game, and that's reflected but they really did dominate the cardinals and I think they really are a force of the fc.
That's one thing that stuck out to me too as well. Why our earned points metric, the t wham, the time, weight, average margin and the t w the time weight, average win probability metric can just really fill out the full picture of giving you a sense of how this game played out.
And provides you with so much more rich information rather than just evaluating a traditional box score because this tells you one immediately. All right. From the t wham the t w perspective, this game was actually much closer. Than the final score, which says that the Seahawks one by 10. But then from an earned points perspective, it says that the Seahawks actually definitively beat the Cardinals, in fact, one by more than 10.
So bringing those things together to really give another accurate sense that we pick the Cardinals. Last week we were overweight the Cardinals and the NFL prediction game. Yet at the same time, we've been talking highly about the Seahawks. Last week you talked about how sure do we have to change our entire perspective, how we're valuing not just G Smith, but me, Gino Smith is kind a broader reflection of how we evaluate quarterbacks moving forward.
Yep.
I valued PJ Walker a little too high last week. They had a really good rating. And then they was playing into a Bengals defense without Adobe. So without their top quarterback and without their slot cornerback and Mike Hilton. In the first half he put up zero points. Pretty much a devastating offense.
I think six total pass yards. Then Bakker comes in for the second half and does exactly what I wanted PJ to do, where he drops, two or three touchdowns, 155 pass yards. And that's exactly what I expected from PJ and from the Panther's offense. So one thing I'm looking for in this week is I think Bengals this win isn't really all that deserving.
I think I'm gonna be disrespecting him a lot this week.
There's definitely been a lot of disrespect on the Bengals, on Twitter, wri large over the course of the season.
Now that you've brought that game up, I almost take a different conclusion and say We all had a lot of question marks following the Browns game about what this offense could do without Jamar Chase. And they put in a really good showing. And both things can be true.
You could be selling the Bengals and also this team is not completely dead without Chase. And I think that game can prevent the Beng, The Panther is not a great football team. Their team vets is fine. They're not a, they're not a pushover and they're certainly not as bad as the, banged up Falcon Secondary which
Dangles also put up a points on.
I'm actually curious why they're gonna still be playing PJ Walker this coming week. I know when we were on the game Trade Live betting the games, and we started to see that Panthers finally put up points. I was under the impression it was PJ Walker until I looked at a little bit closer, like the heck they brought in Baker Mayfield.
I thought Baker Mayfield was still hurt, that he wasn't even capable of coming in. That was one of the reasons why PJ Walker was even starting the game. I think they be called up Sam Arnold. , They're all helping Sam Arnold. Active. Yeah,
active.
So is this a kind of read between the lines, this team is not trying to win games?
Yeah. Okay.
Let me say that PJ Walker's the best
quarterback up until now. PJ Walker was playing phenomenally. He froze over 300 pass yard given he had a 60 yard bond to DJ to end that game against the Falcons. Then this would be one of the best quarterback matchups you could have given how hurt this Bengal's past defense is. And he does nothing with it. So was just a little miracle spurt that has run its time.
Yeah, and we've seen that kind of time and time again in football is, those are all still pro quarterbacks. So some of the best athletes in the world, they're capable of putting in one or two good performance. And that's actually what makes a really good quality backup. A player who can come in, fill in for one or two games, but be under no illusion that all of a sudden they've become somebody completely new or the next great thing.
PJ Walkers another one of those quarterbacks where we have enough tape on him to really understand who he is, what his limitations are, not necessarily a Gina Smith phenomenon.
But elsewhere, looking at this, it pretty much is broadly consistent with what the final scores actually were. So some of the final thing I would say on this is just, again, looking at some of these t whams, the time, weight, average margins, just some very tight t whams. So suggesting there was a lot of very close games, so teams that on average had a lead or for the majority of the game, had a lead or a sizeable lead that still ended up losing the game outright.
Obviously the Titans kind of most memorable but also the Jags, their time, weight, average margin was minus four, Rams was plus two, Falcons was positive. Three. What else do we have here? Washington was just minus one. Texans was just minus three as we mentioned. Seahawks was just plus one, so a lot of very close gain that ended up extending in the end.
And that exemplifies how much value can really be captured by live betting. You don't capture any of this volatility by doing just the traditional handicapping and evaluating static lines over the course of six days.
The only way you capture that is by being active in the markets and live betting. And we had one of our best Sundays of the season this past week, and actually I did capitalize on a lot of these comebacks.
Just to hammer this home, the time weighted average margin time way to average probability really go to suggest.
The volatility inherent football games and it's easy to lose sight. But something like this can drill home and say things weren't so clear from the get go And there was opportunity to eventually get to the winning side.
Only three blowouts Ravens, Panthers, Colts.
Those are the only time weight, average margins that were significantly blown out. And then also, actually the last one I would mention yeah is the bills Jets one time, weight, average margin for the bills plus three. Ended up losing that one. Plenty
of value. Plenty of time to Jets.
Really actually what I pat us on the back more so is I think I was out, was Yeah. Was not trying to catch a falling knife on the bills there. Because for any new to the game live better.
What you might do is just, oh, this is the better team and the line has fallen. So I'm gonna try and take advantage of that. But you really have to evaluate how much has that line fallen. And that was the thing, the live line kept hugging the bills pretty much all game.
It was beyond a full touchdown for 75% of that game. And I was excited that we didn't fall influenced that.
Week 10, consensus market power rankings. Top five bills remain number one. In fact, the top eight are all unchanged, in fact. So not a lot of market moving gains this past week.
So you have bills, chiefs, eagles, cowboys, ravens still round out the top five. And then you have Niners at six Bengals, seven bucks, eight Vikings, nine. Dolphins at 10. So not a lot of changes on a one week basis. In fact, the largest moves on a one week basis are some of those bottom tier teams. Finally, getting a real selloff.
This is the biggest selloff we've seen on the packers. Finally down six spots down to 17. And actually what I love about this, Judah, is the markets downgraded the packers six spots, drive quality is actually upgraded packers. Cause we were already so low, it was 29th and now they're actually upgraded 20, which
I was thinking like, okay, the market's can be quickest to solve on the packers.
And I actually like of all the NSE teams, I think they actually have the best shot at turning it around. Maybe not now that they lost their entire team to injury, but it's funny that actually the drive quality kinda comports
my general outlook. What are your thoughts, Caleb? On the Packers?
So they're a very divisive team. Standard deviation also. Okay. Our standard deviation. This gives us a sense of how much disagreement is there across the market on this Pacific team? Higher the number, the more disagreement and the packers are pretty elevated there. Espn, 18th, ff 10th, 5, 38, 18th.
Football Outsiders 21st. In predict 19 again, we're at the market low at 28th. Have you made money fading the packers ? And I don't know, are you betting any props of the Packers? I Their office is so pathetic.
I took Rogers last week.
It did help that they were down. In the same sense, you could argue that he had one of his worst games he's ever had with the interceptions, but. I certainly would not put him top 10 like ff did. I, there's a part of me that knows that Aaron Rogers is still a top 10 quarterback.
But then you just have guys that are just not performing at the same level. Lizard comes back and he does well, but they're depth and receivers. Their offensive line is weak. And at one point I put their past defense pretty high and it's falling outside of their two cornerbacks. So it's hard to pinpoint an issue for this team, but they just keep finding ways to lose rather than win.
Brett, you say there's not a lot of value betting on props, so I'm pretty sure you were all in on the Roberton over at 11 and a half this evening yards last week.
True. And actually, and that was a live prop.
Especially at halftime when a lot of the games go offline, I really want us to scratch and claw for trying to find some that is props. And I did find that Robert Tanya and Prop, but also was cause it was so depressed, and that's why Caleb do you do live props.
So trying to take any advantage of how a game script is materializing or not in a specific game and maybe you have a projection for a certain player. The game is going awry for one reason or another. And then trying to take advantage of how those prop prices change.
I will in a sense, if it was already a player I was targeting before. Most of my current matchup tables will already factor if a team should be playing from behind or not. But if I see that and I was already high on this player because of their cornerback matchup or their bus defense matchup and then, they had targets and drops or whatever it was and now they're from behind, it would be a spot that I would maybe dip more into.
But typically I'm not looking in the market for new people that I have already scouted before the . It's a little too much after for I currently have.
Yeah, and actually, and say that it's great that you actually call that out too, cuz that is part of the value premium right now in live betting.
One of the three Ds of what makes a really good live sports better. One of them is durability. Like it, it is a lot of effort, a lot of energy. It's just sucking away from you and so much is going on to be able to find all these value plays amongst a de of information just inundating you.
That's part of that value premium and it's can be difficult for a lot of people still.
So other biggest one week changers. So again, Green Bay downgraded six spots down to 17th Giants down three spots, 25th Saints down two spots to 19th. The Giants. Didn't even play not play.
But I guess the aftermath of their last loss continuing to be downgraded, relative to other teams. Repositioning Saints downgraded to 19th, our drive quality downgraded them a spot also now outside the top 10, but actually not as much as maybe you otherwise would've thought.
Cardinals downgrade two Col sound grade two biggest upgrades. Jets up another five spots now ranked 14th, creeping up across the board. Top 10 for football. Outsiders now almost a top 10 for espn p f market low at 18th.
I love the Jets. this Jet's defense is phenomenal, is absolutely phenomenal. I bet heavily on South Gardner and I heavily on DJ v Jr. To perform just every week. So Gabe Davis under was a big I taking and it were 13 yards.
So putting 'em 14th is a little disrespected. I guess they have to prove themselves more a little bit, because I also don't think Zach Wilson is that great, especially under pressure. But that defense can withstand any offense in the league.
I thought that they matched up perfectly against the bills and losing was not unexpected. From a Bills fan.
Interesting. Something I'd highlight with the Jets here is that if you actually look at what's being priced in next week, so they're in, is 25th.
Yeah. Though the market says there are 14th, which is the biggest difference. And maybe this is my time to rant a little bit, but something that I think is worth talking about when we talk about power rankings which is that there's almost a strain of thought which says the spreads are the only kind of way of valuing fundamental value of the team.
How good they're, and I think that's just one market, right? And maybe I'm expressing the value of what we've created here. But what happens in a spread game and the market that is inherent in that is different than say, a future's market where a Super Bowl can also be a determinants of team value and what's happening with the spreads.
Is it a saying, Oh, next week the Jets play, The Patriots, Zach Wilson has historically struggled against the Patriots. Therefore we're going to make that same line. It's not a declaration saying the Jets are the 25th best team and the Patriots are the 15th best team. Whatever the has it app. But rather it's saying No, there are unique inputs to this red line that make it different for this market.
I think these power rankings give a better more holistic overview of actually what is this team's fundamental value by sourcing it a whole bunch of different metrics and groups that can give us a better full picture.
I think the Jets are the 14th, around the 14th or drive.
Claudia is M 13. And I think Tequila's point, their defense has really been good. And Zach Wilson is the thing that's stopping them from even getting higher.
Yeah, the Zach Wilson factor that's creating even hesitation on my part. I know at least, Yeah. From wanting to upgrade them even more meaningfully.
We look at the standard deviation, they're definitely one of the higher numbers there. So one of the bigger disagreements Seahawk still almost week in, week out, continue to be one of the teams with the highest standard deviations, just massive disagreements across the
board. And the Jacks, same thing.
There's also a Twitter discussion today that these three teams,
Seahawks, Jags, Titans, almost
every single, every time. It's like the Titans continue to outperform their record. They do it every year. And what does you have to do for us to actually upgrade meaningfully to Seahawks?
How is there in part 20th? 20th? What do you need to stop, play it at top one level instead of a top five level? What is fluky about it? There's nothing fluky about it. I just, I don't see why. You can predict and say, Oh, this is not gonna stay the same.
And Chino Smith is not the same quarterback. Obviously the Cs are not the same quarterback and the Jaguars like they haven't been covering and their efficiency might look good, but they keep shooting themselves on the foot and they keep not being the spread. I can understand why it's a little bit more h tested with them.
Yeah. So our drive quality, if you want to use drive quality as some sort of a leading indicator. We are a market high on the bears at nine.
Market ranked 29th still and again, broad market agreement that's within that range. ESPN 27 PF 28th, 5 38, 27, Football Outsiders 28th and Predict 28th. So the market rating them as a bottom three team. And we could see that as we move into, week 10, still not even getting that traditional full three points being at home versus division rival like the Lions, which is where we got them now.
And they're bottom the three team as well.
Part of the reason I liked them last week was they were rank 31st. Yeah. It's like I can't be that bad. They're never actually as bad as people think.
And the Texas covered last week too, as a market consensus.
Worst team.
I'm loving the bears except for their offensive line is absolutely horrendous. Fields is making it work. But that's of the only issue I'm really seeing. Outside of them trading all their players, they're playing pretty well for that defense. But Justin Fields is looking great.
Have you been capitalizing on any of these fields?
Props ahead of the steam that we're starting to see in it. I know I was betting fields prop. Two or three weeks ago, back when it was still mildly palatable, in the thirties, low forties last week he was already into the mid fifties. And of course now he goes for 130 yards. But each time, like it keeps creeping higher and getting harder to stomach.
How are you seeing that?
I've gone back and forth with him and when he played Dallas, I faded him completely. And he went under, and then going into Miami gets a underperforming past defense and he goes overt, which I capitalize on. It was interesting. I was gonna initially go for Moony, but I was intrigued on how Chase Claypool would work into this offense.
And that was a bit of a dud, right? He got two catches, 30 yards or 20 yards.
Yeah it's interesting. Because.
Still early too.
Respect's a has a really large catch rate and I think he's actually better than what Bears fans are expecting him to be.
But Fields now is making these throws off the run that he's was struggling to make in the beginning of the season. So fading him in that regards is something I'm gonna try to avoid in the next upcoming weeks because I think he's working really well under pressure.
What about Bikings? Is another team? Pretty high standard deviation, almost five spots of average disagreement. Drive quality has ranked ninth market consensus rank is also ninth, so pretty much on market there. But across the board, ESPN 12 P F a 5 38, a market high at fifth. Football Outsiders, a market low.
at 18th. So some pretty big deviations there. And Nomos is really reflective. when you a ask an average fan or an average sports better, they're disagreements. Or their kind of perspective on the Vikings one sees opportunity, the upside, the other sees like massive opportunity to the downside thinking that they're completely overrated.
How are you guys thinking about Vikings?
I am definitely thinking the latter. And when they play Buffalo this week it will be something that will be proven. Now obviously Buffalo is a really strong defensive team, but when you look at the Vikings, I see them more one dimensional.
When they go into Buffalo and you put Justin Jefferson in a slot, he's matching up against Terran Johnson and the White out. Now Buffalo welcomes back to DiUS White. And I think they're gonna really struggle this week.
So falling outside of the top 10 is gonna happen this week. So
today's why is back this week?
They hope so. In a sea of uncertainty, which is the NFL this year.
Like we know exactly what the Vikings are. For cousins is the, like paradigmatic, average quarterback, . Yeah. Are going to allow teams to when they have a lead, they're gonna allow teams back in and when they're down they're going to find their way back. It's the same thing every year, but in this NFL environment that might be top 10 and we know exactly what we're getting with the Vikings and it's like most stable parts.
Stability of the, this year. Yeah.
The lighting has a premium this year.
Exactly. And I think kill, You're right. There's like a, there's little angles to the upside to say Oh, this is a Super Bowl team. They could have a tremendous regular season and find their way to, a buy in the playoffs.
That's not crazy. Is it likely? No. But placing them in the larger NFL market, the stability of the Vikings is really
benefiting them this year. I think one of the dangers of fading the Vikings as well is for a team that's seven and one and still barely cracking the top 10 and a football outsider's barely cracking the top 20.
The market is hesitant to fully buy in to the Vikings. If you saw seven and one in NFC North, I think you're rating this team probably a top five, top four, like blindly. Yeah. But the market is acknowledging that. And in fact it's
discounting. Before the Josh Allen, they were like seven and a half point dogs to the bills.
Let's move on to NFL Week 10. Thursday night Game Falcons down to two and a half at Panthers. Over under 42 and a half.
There might be some weather concerns. I heard very windy, very rainy.
. What are you thinking about prop wise? Kayla, but there's an island game. Do you try to lean into some of these island games?
I like time. Time a lot. Going deep beyond the surface level.
With AJ Terrell still out, their top cornerback? Yes. DJ Moore is still very capable and one guy I've been liking for a long time is Terrace Marshall. And I assume, what's this pop at by now?
35 and a half yards. That's ridiculous. Yeah, two and a half reception,
which is really.
Interesting because he was higher last week against the Bengals. But I think his matchup is still very good. Now he's going against a backup falcons who is a part of a defense that has been struggling and their bottom five in past ranking. I know Carolina is not very exceptional, but they go from PJ who favored him a ton, which is a reason why I took him last week.
Where he has 10 targets the first game. But then Bakker comes in and he throws to him for over 50 yards, right? So now I'm just like, Oh, it doesn't really matter what Carolina QB they go with because this guy has the WR two who has the most favorable match on the offense. I think he's probably gonna be my top look for tomorrow's game.
Good insight. What about Cornel Patterson. Obviously Joe Nixon just destroyed the Panthers five touchdowns. Patterson comes back last week. Looks good. His rush yards 54 and a half right now.
Receiving yards over six and a half receiving yards. That seems really low. You see any value there or overpriced?
Last week he was supposedly working back from entry and then he had a really good workload. It's interesting to know to think about where the Falcons will go because there are three running backs right now.
Huntley is also a pounder and they have three running backs that are capable. But in a game where Falcons have a really good event zone defense and their defense matches up. Enough to pick Carolina to a game where they should be ahead. That provides a lot about value for Patterson.
Carolina's not gonna be really strong in any aspect. Slightly stronger in the rush game, but certainly bottom 10, both departments. I think it's a fair price, especially if he's seeing an increased number of snaps. It just depends on if they're gonna go for a committee this week or not.
I think that's right. The snaps last week. Patterson played 2020 three's. Question counts. I will say though, props are definitely the way to attack the skin. Cause I want nothing to do with the the spreader total.
Have you thought about any sort of SGP yet for this?
No. Fi walker's playing and the weather is okay for the, for deep passes. I can lean into DJ work at just long touchdown. Game game ball. Both these teams are kinda explosive. So can lead to some fireworks.
Seahawks Bucks.
Seahawks out to a full plus three. Now on Draft Kings a little bit juiced. This opened, a short one has been creeping up over the course of the week, markets still believing in the Bucks as a top 10 team drive quality down at 18th and still not wanting to buy into the Seahawks fully still market consensus, power ranked 16th.
Drive quality. Has the Seahawks as a top six team. Football outsiders has 'em as a top five and football outsiders has been ahead of that trend. This is in Germany, this is in Germany. This would seem like Seahawks, especially if you're getting the three.
I just said on the forecast Famous last words. This is my favorite line. Play of the year by law. by a lot.
So you think it's the officers gonna destroy the box?
I just, the books are not good. I think it's a material mispricing in every such way and I have a very good sense of what's being sourced and what's being priced in, and I wanna fade that so hard.
You can cite any efficiency metrics. I've got a few, and I wrote this up on pff, but our drive quality has them six 18, the 18 epa, the score 40 of their's, it to us, the on only 30% of their drive.
Seven best the bucks 26. You get the idea that the Seahawks are better, but here's what I what's particularly strong in this case is that the Seahawks are a team full of rookies in the same way that we just talked about how Justin Fields has improved. That makes sense. Second year quarterbacks can get better as the season goes along.
In the same way that the Seahawks were starting. Abraham Lucas and Charles Cross both rookies at their tackle positions. They're gonna get better as season goes along. That's what happens. Rookie that are also starting to Rean and Kobe Bryant quarterbacks, they're going to get better as the season goes along.
The opposite is true of Tampa. Chris Godwin's not getting any bitter mcg. Gavins is not getting any better. They're both just getting more hurt. They're old and they're banged up, right? Like we should expect that there is some signal in an older team like the bucks getting worse. And that's exactly the picture that's kind painted. The cos have gotten better in drive quality, epa, whatever efficiency metric you choose and the bucks have gotten worse.
So ultimately, what does this come down to? It's the same thing I've been saying every single week on this stream, which is the bucks have fundamental issues. It's not that like Brady's not playing well, they have just some serious flaws. Namely what I think most sticks out, it's that they're facing perfect coverage 50% of the time, which would've been the worst mark in the NFL if the Panthers weren't the worst in the nfl.
This is the second worst mark of the last four years since we started tracking this. And it's a reflection of a scheme that can't get guys open and receivers who themselves can't win. Separating, added to the fact that this is a dreadful run offense. These problems aren't just going away. We can't just wish that away.
And the best part about this is it's two-sided, right? It's like the chaws are still being downgraded as if Juno Smith isn't playing to a top five rate as if the CX all offense is not playing well. It's six defenses isn't getting better. I don't see why this is such a huge mispricing when I think actually the Bucks are the 20th best team and the Seahawk the sixth best team,
not Flipp.
Everyone wants to deny the rise and hold on very strongly to the preseason priors that the Seahawk suck and the bucks are gonna be elite and it's taken half the season and they're still not properly adjusted for who these teams are. Yeah, the Bucks just beat the Rams who were also very low on barely squeaked by time weight.
Average margin was still negative two. And we have the Rams ranked 25th.
It's, it almost perpetuates on itself, which is like the Bucks, Rams and Packers are all really bad and they started so high and it's just, we're slow to adjust based on prior information for better or for worse.
And it's Oh, they beat the Rams. The Rams are okay. No, the Rams are terrible. Two really bad themes played last Sunday, and the results showed. And I don't understand how the box are still being priced the way they're.
What I actually loved about Geno Smith actually was through the pick six, and then right after that led back to back 13, play 75, 80 yard drives for touchdowns.
Nice bounce back. What about you, Caleb? How are you planning on attacking this game in any particular way? Leaning into any Ken Walker prop. I love that dude. That dude looks like a beast.
Oh yeah. What a dog. I would say the only thing that kind of concerns me is that Gina has for the last couple of weeks, gone through some easier past defenses and now is going into a top 10 Tampa Bay unit with Jemele Dean and so that's concerning.
This is the week I'm expecting to see Leonard Fornet lose his job to Rashad. We he runs really hard, he was the third round pick and I think now we'll be the first game of the season where he is gonna outs Snap
Leonard Fornet.
Hold. I like that. That's a good call out. So you think so attacking some of those white props is a way to capitalize
on that and under Cornett? Yes. .
And a good point too about some of the defenses that Geno Smith's played. So you're looking at Cardinals, Giants, Chargers, Cardinals, the last four games elsewhere, Lions, Falcons really the best defense that he's faced thus far has been Denver and San Francisco in two games that actually are probably some of his work.
Yeah. Denver is easily the most formidable that he will face. He's had a, four weeks of pretty poor past defense Cardinals, twice what
was it, Falcon?
I don't think the Cardinals are too bad. Yeah, I like they're lighting the world on fire, but I think they were , right? They's not facing alliance
every week. One thing that's interesting is that overall they're like ranked pretty poorly, but I've seen that against the top two wide receivers of a team.
They're ranked actually pretty hot.
Which is a very they're getting killed by Titans. Yeah. So that was, it's not a, I'm sure you've noticed that.
But yeah, this will be one that I think might take 'em a little bit to adjust to. But Seahawks are definitely, as Judah said
definitely undervalued.
This game, again, is in Germany, so there's always that x factor of weirdness that can create some uncertain elements.
Bikings at the bills down to three and a half now. So it's obviously increasingly pricing in the fact that Josh Allen is not going to play it's going to be Case Keenum revenge game versus the Vikings.
I'm off even with, So you don't think the Vikings have value versus case keen that the supporting cast, the fact that it's still on the road
I'd
so much prefer to be this live. I gotta get a little sniff with the offense.
Are they gonna run the ball a lot more? Does that change the entire nature of Bill's offense? I need to see it.
Honestly not a bad backup compared to a lot of teams. Very capable. But definitely a better matchup for the buffalo offense than it was last week. And Buffalo Defense, if they can shut out Jefferson, it is more of a question of can case p put any points on the board just to win in a little sad defensive game?
And just hope that their defense can hold Minnesota to less than say 14, 17 points. ?
Yeah, I like that angle. The Vikings is probably just a stay away. To your point, Judy, I think there's way better of a game to bet live. I think anyone betting Minnesota is just playing it from a single angle, which is just, no.
Josh Allen, huge downgrade. Case Keenum, three and a half, still getting the hook. Whereas the Vikings, again, put only seven points on the board versus Washington through 80% of that game. And they've just looked clunky all season. And the bills obviously still talent, still very well coached
The whole thing is a little weird from Buffalo side. I think Alan's is pretty serious. And think it's being downplayed. And I'm
gonna Yeah. You're talking about maybe leaning into some division futures
to Yeah, I bet. Division futures, which I already gained some value when they reposted the lines.
I'd be worried about the UCL previously missed time with it. It's known from baseball. It's not a minor entry. And the it strikes me as a little cliche.
All right. Texans at Giants Texans plus four and a half. This was bet down from a influential better on the Texans bringing it down from six or so.
In New York, over under 41. Texans dealing with their own kind of banged up. Injuries. Pierces on injury report. Maybe Cooks is coming back, but where is his head? I don't see a buy sign on the Texans here. They have the 10 days rest, but Giants are coming off of Bye.
So mitigated. It's also pretty noisy
in general. Very noisy. Yeah.
The trend that is quickly forming is just how terrible Houston's rush defense is. Yeah. So I'm sure that when I look through my charts, that Saquon's gonna be the highest of any running back.
And, Sanders and that whole committee goes well. And then Derek Kennedy runs for 200 as he does every time he faces detect. So Saquon now rested who's been running phenomenally this year and should be in a game where he is up, will probably be the guy that I could easily see going for, 1 20, 1 30.
Yeah. I think this is a way that if you wanna play again, the tail outcome of that with Barky is like doing one of those sgs and getting the plus money on Barky over 115 yards.
Or something like that, plus 180 or something. Right now it's 93 and half juiced minus 1 25 on Draft Kings is his rushing yards prop. ,
Jags Chiefs Jags plus nine and a half our Jags Juda that we keep betting almost every single week. We cash. The tickets definitely made up for a lot of the losses and heartbreak that we've had over the course of the season this week. Yeah. Leaning into them more and more as they were going down again, showed flashes of the same old Jags.
I coached a few clips of me like pulling my hair out about them bubbling up one yard line.
I
think the most animated I got all year was on the jacks. Miss that feeling goal. Most animated in the negative sense.
Can the Jags win this one straight up? Or is this, obviously the Chiefs did not look good at all last week. A classic dud of a game from the Chiefs that you see two or three times from them every single year.
Especially versus Titans. the thing is, what I don't like about the Chiefs is I don't like the chiefs margin.
I will never bet the Chiefs at margin. Yeah. This one for me is a stay away Chiefs. I wanna bet the Jags. If I had not lost or made any money on the Jags, this was week one, I would love the Jags. Yep. And it's still just a little bit of my own butt heartness speaking. That gives me any hesitation.
Otherwise I'd be loving
that. We're betting them circa. Yeah. I'm coming down with the strong fist there. Oh yeah. You gotta lean to the numbers
here.
Caleb, were you hot on the Jaguar? So Jaguars was a very hot pre-season team. You have elevated expectations for them in the beginning of the year.
Every single week I think I still value them too. But I love their receivers and I love etn. I think T Law is better than he was last year, they beat the Chiefs.
Probably not. I don't even think they'll be that close. But Chiefs defense is falling pretty hard. I think they're a good enough pass rush team though to make Trevor uncomfortable and with their top cornerback being luxurious, need matching up perfectly with Christian Kirk and the slot. That's a really tough thing for Jags to get by.
Definitely a stay away game because Chiefs are always just high spreads and I just avoid 'em in general. Yeah. But if I was gonna go somewhere would just expect etn to keep running. And maybe that's enough where the game has long drives to where Jacks can hang in that margin.
I think leaning into Jag's alt line here, I definitely love Jags plus three and a half plus 180 3.
I like it.
Yeah.
I don't hate Jags plus minus three, plus 4 54, especially if you're expecting the Jags potentially to start a little bit hot and the chief steps to start a little bit slow, which kind of is historically the precedent.
And just wait for this live line to drip lower. Again, live lines always love to hang on to teams like the Chiefs like the bills. So it'll probably take a while for the line to meaningfully fall. That's another way you could potentially tell that. And when you got a plus 4 54, you got a lot of budget to play around.
Yeah,
Here's the truth. I can see the Jaguars winning this game. I think there's an angle for that to happen, which certainly means I like the nine and a half, five and a half, it's plus six hundreds. A little intriguing on at least for the can.
Browns plus three and a half at Miami.
This one seems actually pretty steep. Three and a half reduced juice, leaning towards four on Draft Kings. My initial impression here is Lean Browns.
It's a live spot for me. I'm curious why you say brand.
Miami's one of those good, one of those teams that you really, you know, if you really wanna leverage up on a specific view.
Because we've seen those games where the Dolphins offense just starts lighting it up, wait, as you mentioned on the live stream, wait till after those scripted plays. Don't get romance by the first two drives. Cause that's gonna be noisy. It's gonna be potentially misleading. Yeah. But once you're out of those first, two, first 15 plays, and you get a sense of, is this gonna be the Dolphins team that scores 17 points, 20 points, then kind, maybe just lay off.
fan, they're rolling. Be the wa props bet the hill props. Just lean into 'em. And even like starting off I almost feel like Rolling Dice, especially for who's already made a ton of money on the Dolphins, on SGPs, the plus eight hundreds, plus 18 hundreds to a Hill model kind too.
Three and a half just seems like a lot for a team that for a team like the Browns who have outside of like the Patriots game of them just getting demolished. I think it was really close, really looked ugly. They've been competitive in every game.
The main redeeming quality of the Miami Defense is their rush defense.
And that seems to be exactly what Cleveland leans towards. If in Jo's back then BET could certainly have a good game.
Do we know, do you know if Den
Wars gonna be back?
That's a good question. He's coming back the season. He is underperformed from
his coming back this last three games with the concussion. He's back
though.
Yeah. I don't really have a certain being on this game, I just know that.
As far as defenses, Dolphins, defense matches up better. But I do think BET is certainly capable to target their past defense, their struggling past
defense. Something we've talked about from day one with the Dolphins matchups on both sides of ball play a ton of man coverage. Yep. And their so reliant on their wide receivers winning.
I do think you're right to identify that the brands don't really have the wide receivers to take advantage over. The dolphins are weakest. Although I think they joke could some trouble back also. I
really wanna put, it's a very elevated total 48 and a half to maybe potential. Yeah. If you think there's gonna be a quieter Dolphins game and the Browns aren't necessarily be able to take advantage of the Dolphins defense under 48 and a half.
Yeah.
But it's hard to bet on the Dolphins. There's certain teams who could go off for 35 in a week. Yeah. I just, I don't wanna bet on a team. The dolphins have that potential every week, but I wanna kinda see how the game plays at before I make that.
Alright. Broncos plus two and a half at Tennessee. I saw this hit three, now it's coming lower. Two and a half. Still elevated juice. Actually, this is the lowest total on the board at 37.
It's Tan Hill, I assume it's coming back. I really liked, actually, what I saw out of the few I don't know, what was it like six throws from Malik Willis . He had some that were dropped. He threw some dimes there. He has a very big problem with processing speed, if there's a little bit of a rush, he either wants to run or he has no idea what to do.
Also, obviously has terrible wide receivers who are probably not getting any separation whatsoever. But I was pleasantly surprised from what I saw from him. Man, if the Titans weren't, five and three and actually still being competitive, could potentially still win the division. I would love if they move to Willis or due to a Saints hybrid type thing and started to leverage more of Willis.
Man, dude, when that guy turns the corner and starts to run, he looks like a Josh Allen type, like linebacker moving with speed.
Our drive quality has favored the Broncos more so it's less true.
Half the season has actually gone along.
I just, I wanna fade the Titans and their reliance on Derek Henry. I think that the Broco will be able to slow down, especially if Ryan Tannahill is in and not a hundred percent. And Ryan T's mobility actually does matter.
It's a funny thing to talk about cause he doesn't strike you as the biggest runner, but like they do use him on option plays. And I think this is something Yeah, where we're starting to learn more about the Henry's performances in recent weeks. I think a lot have a lot to do with Malik Willis and kinda the, that a quarterback like Malik Willis offers to and presents to where linebackers are gonna freeze.
I also I wanna buy the Wilson default areas. I think this is gonna make a great clip when Jerry Judy or Corton Sutton catches 60 yard touchdown in a game with such a low total. I think that's the difference.
I'm intrigued about Denver's past defense.
I know they lost Darby a couple weeks ago, but they're still of holding onto that number one spot. Which is certainly not the tight strength, but is something where now they can kinda load the box and be comfortable with the cornerbacks that they leave out. I do believe that Tennessee in this game is valued a little higher due to their chief's performance.
One thing that I was looking to target in this game was I'm waiting for Melvin Gordon to be weaned out weaned out of Denver's offense.
And I think this is a good week for that to happen. I don't think he will perform very well. And Latavious Murray and someone I'm really high on is Mike Boone. Though the team's not very high on, but I think Latavious Murray will have a very successful performance in
relationship.
What about Chase Edmonds?
Ooh, yeah. Chase Edmonds. New acquisition, not really that strong of a runner. More of a pass back? Yeah, that is very interesting.
That's a good question. Model backfield even more there.
Yeah, running back committees are always just something I avoid for obvious reasons, but I think Melvin Gordon is probably the weakest of those three.
Lions plus three at Chicago. This is now two. The three was one early in the week. It was one on the look aheads creeped up. Now it's crept up to a cheap three for the bears. Reduced juice. I like the bears here pretty definitively.
One for the reasons that you mentioned when we're evaluating the market consensus rankings, Judah, which is, I don't think the market's properly pricing yet. The field's phenomena. I think everyone's very well aware of it. But it's not bleeding through to pricing quite yet. I think it's feeding its way through props first.
It's getting elevated pricing there but not bleeding through to the game level yet. Justin Fields' rushing yards over under 58 and a half, so it's about five yards higher than it was last week, which was about 10 yards higher than it was the previous week.
The thing is, I don't even know why I'd much rather if you're gonna play a field rush, might as well just lean into some of the alt lines, over 85 yards plus 200 or something. Just really lean into that script. And we know the line.
It's still one of the. in the league. , maybe it's not historically bad, but simply playing well against the Packers is not necessarily indicative of any material change, although they did also shut down the Cowboys for about 60% of that game.
Some improvement from that defense. But I think the Bears are certainly more than capable of exploiting their weaknesses. And I liked it much more. So under the three, I think Bears lines in Chicago should be three, pretty much any season. And so I feel less strongly about it at the three, but you get it under three.
I definitely like Bears.
This is. Volatility central, I think. Yeah. Bad defenses, offenses who put up explosive plays. I'm looking to bet this live and keep flip flopping the sets.
I'm hoping people think that defensive unit is better than it is after it picked off riders three times.
Because almost for the first time this season that Chicago's offense is now actually having an advantage. So I'm really excited to see how Fields uses that. Because he is always been an underdog and going against really hard teams and now he will have the least pass rush presence that he has felt so far.
I might just watch it and just enjoy it. Just because I have a bias to him and I just, being from Chicago.
Yeah. I actually always, for that reason, in fact, try to avoid having exposure on Bears Games cuz I will lose money. But I think this is actually, obviously there's such a bias towards fields running and not passing fields over one and a half passing touchdowns versus week defense plus one 90.
Especially since we know the bears one of the better scripted teams in the NFL.
Saints minus one and a half at Pittsburgh.
This was two and a half. I bet this on the look headline cuz it was Saints minus one felt the Saints were gonna look a lot better versus the Ravens, assuming this was gonna go up to a field goal, I saw it reach around two and a half, but now it's back down to one and a half again on the road. Total 40.
I think I still like the Saints.
Me too. I wanna see if TJ Wa ends up playing.
From what I'm reading, it looks like TJ Wat is gonna play. So that's definitely meaningful since he definitely changed it. Yeah. I'm a
little less bullish.
And that's probably, maybe that's what's moved this down, that point. Yeah.
I love this Saints defense but with TJ Wat back, and I don't know. I love Levi Wallace when he was on the bills. I still like magic cornerback. I like Minka Fitzpatrick.
It would be very hard to see either these offense, either these past offenses being successful against these opposing quarterbacks. So props could be, a fading of a receiver. But overarching it's just going under in this
total.
Yeah. Actually, I don't know. Maybe I do wanna lay off this one.
Because unless he's gonna be limited in some way, shape, or form. One of the things we talked about in the preseason preview a lot is actually very well documented is, the splits with, on off with TJ Wat and he dramatically changes the impact of that defense.
And the Saints are still vulnerable to, a very strong pass rush. I don't like Dalton under pressure. And unlike your thesis on Gen Smith Judah, like I don't think that is applicable to someone like Andy Dalton. He is who he is and he'll be able to put in some good performances, but then he'll be able to put in bad for us.
It's exactly what he did in the late stages of his career with the Bengal. It's what he did with the Bears last season as well. He looked good, then he looked bad.
The key with is the sensitivity to pressure. I'm also curious to see if this answer fully, like you've got a ton of injuries.
I wanna see if back there, back. I think it's a spot I'm currently lying off, but I can definitely see myself leaning into some alts basically on the assumption that nothing's materially changed. From last season.
Colts plus six at the Raiders. Colts looked miserable. Fired their coach, fired their object coordinator the week before that
We're cashing our under tickets.
We can just cash it. They should just pay us out. In fact what the heck? Stop sitting on it. I don't think it's hard to wanna touch. The Cols, I feel like this is not enough points quite yet. No,
you can't touch the Cols right now.
It's truly gambling by betting on the cols.
The Colts are just a terrible team horrible football team. Yeah, I guess I would be inclined to bet on Josh Jacobs, but then, Colts, that's their strength on defense even though they're most certainly gonna be down. So I just look at this game and I gag and then I move on.
I like this as a like for a home game for the Raider against dysfunctional, a dysfunctional that doesn't have interest in winning right now.
Typically I love to, lean against a common narrative that's being cited for anybody and anyone who's betting on this game. But I just don't know if six is enough. Like essentially, if you like the cult, if you wanna gamble on the cults, do you think you're gonna get a better line live than plus six at some point in time?
Yes, I think absolutely. For sure. Yeah. Gamble then.
Cowboys at the Packers now again, consistent with what we saw from our consensus market power rankings, packers down in graded six spots this week, down to 17. Our drive quality actually upgraded one spot Packers now plus five in Lambo.
This is a clear season low for the Packers. Total over, under 43. Packers and I are dealing with injuries on top of both. Now, defensive injuries as well. Shaun, Gary out eric Stokes also out . I just feel like this is you still haven't caught the bottom yet and the Packers and the COB wasn't away with this or Wow.
But I feel like, any kinda
square, sharp, better has to be petting the packers here. And again, I'm not saying that's a, that, that's a bad reason. I'm just saying I feel like this is Oh, this is just too many points. Package and Lambo, it's over. Plus three, now you're getting a few extra points. Got a bit of.
That's like trying to buy the dip. I'm glad they agree on the fact that actually I think this thing's gonna ship a little lower first. Yeah.
I would be all over the Cowboys. They're, I love their past defense. And oh, if Rogers goes off a Detroit game, now I know that he's, some of those interceptions are not his fault, and I do still think of him as a phenomenal quarterback. But the Dallas Pass Defense Unit is so much stronger top five in the league. And one thing that the Packers did against the bills was they just turned entirely to a run game. Yeah. So I'm intrigued if I can get away with going against Aaron Rogers this week after taking him last week and hoping that either the past defense is good enough or that they just go full Aaron Jones again.
I think the question also is, has the market respondent to the Cowboys yet. We don't have a lot of deck games and I think they can legitimately be a great offense like they were last year.
Also see 'em as a team that can really blow the packers. If packers are really bad, drive quality suggests at 28, especially the hurt team and Doubt really runs up course. Which makes it an intriguing all spot. Especially if I jumps out to a big lead early, you can probably get a middle because the lion's gonna move quickly with the
Yeah.
Tony. Yeah. Dub in a walking boot. Aaron Jones was in a walking boot and we know Dubs one of those newer wide receivers that Rogers was actually demonstrating a little bit of chemistry with. I know after the Bills game I was talking about how I feel like they took a next step in the broader development of chemistry and then, he gets hurt and misses I took
His longest reception prop. He as a. 1818 yard cash on the first playing of the game. Half yard short of the prop and doesn't play first
All right. Cardinals at Rams. Cardinals plus one and a half division game. Very critical If the Cardinals want to maintain any sort of competitiveness in the division and in the season at large, we're starting to see some clunky Cardinals performances similar to what we saw last year, even with Deandre Hopkins back now.
One of the things that I'm kinda sad about why we picked. Cardinals again. Cardinals have been Latino. We've actually lost a lot on this year. Yep. Drive quality hates 'em. ranks. Cardinal's 30th, clear market, low football outsides actually pretty close. So actually has the Cardinal's rank 29th too.
Market consensus rank on the Cardinals is 23. Again, asterisk, most of the, that is backwards looking. Doesn't have Deandre Hopkins, but he wasn't a meaningful contributor versus Seahawks pretty much went under all his props as well.
There's some big injury news here. Both Matthew Staffer and Kyle Murray's statuses are in that concussion protocol and missing with an injury. Then the under 41 and a half seems wonderful. We have two backups, but I doubt that would be the case.
If Stanford's in concussion protocol, especially with the sensitivity around that now, it seems like it's not gonna
play. Yeah.
I don't like either of these teams. I just, I the vans are so underperforming and cards have this o line issue that Kyle can't really get past.
I've been fading Allen Robinson for a long time Cardinals in their cornerback duo. I just expect another volume, high volume slot for Cooper and I think Allen Rob would probably be my only fade in this game.
Chargers plus seven at the Niner Sunday night football.
What's the injury news on Mike and Keenan?
Yeah, they're both gonna be out.
I targeted Palmer a lot. Every time one of them's out and he is done well so far. But now Char Award is a very formidable opponent. I feel like the spread is pretty accurate. Given the weapons that charges have. I guess Carter would be the only charges receiver that could do a little something, assuming Herber is throwing for two 50 pluses.
This total looks high, 45 and a half given the niners defense, given the Chargers offensive woes and we saw tons of drops in the previous game, both from Everett and Palmer, some of them leading to turnovers. First, not necessarily an opportunistic defense at all from Atlanta and still barely squeaked out the win.
And now going up against obviously a much more formidable fo , charges have already shown a propensity to get demolished, got demolished by the Jags, got demolished by the Seahawks.
I think the line is fair.
Yeah, I would bet the seven. I would bet Niners all if you like Niners.
Was just looking back, I was in week three last year when I bet the Chargers against the chiefs. I touched on underdogs.
I said, I do not think there will ever be an instance of SNA Herbert seven point dogs, but I think it's warranted in the spot. , I do. I'm not as enthusiastic about the nine results as you are. Only because I think Herbert keeps them in the game no matter what.
But I don't know if it's Herbert's Mo to lead teams back or whatnot because again, like demolished by the Ravens last year, noted by the Texans last year this team gets demol.
I
didn't get demol by Texans last. They lost by one by 20
When Rex Burke had put up like 200 yards rushing or something on the
ground, 41 29? Either way. In recent weeks it's been chargers go down 14, nothing. 10 nothing. They come back. Yeah. It's fair. It's fair. And I guess they do have the wheels to come off, but I think those games were a function of daily variance going the wrong way.
And we haven't had any of that this year. It was like
they failed . That was so a consequence last year.
Yeah, you're right. Yeah, and I don't think we had that last year. I think they're playing more conservative. Yeah.
Now they're just this year . They're
just not good. Yeah. , they're just totally just the 22 calories a yards and two touchdowns last year.
I don't know. Yeah. I would say that like the other part of it is just I don't know if I necessarily like the Niners to necessarily be the type of team to run away with this particular game for the office side, which is why I think another proxy play off that narrative potentially playing out is playing the under. Wasn't, it was like 46 and a half Niners chiefs. Yeah. Obviously had a much more explosive offense. Yeah. Even playing into your thought process, Judah the charge, Steve's not being as bad as maybe the market price.
I wonder if McCaffrey props have gotten outta control. . I don't see any up yet.
Monday night football commanders plus 10 and half at Philly.
Over under 44.
We haven't really made any money on the Eagles this year and they covered a lot of numbers. We weren't low on the Eagles, but have been pretty reticent to necessarily buy into them any point in time. So that's cost us.
But I don't know, this seems like a little bit high. Again, given a season where there is a lot of parody and now we're even seeing some of those top tier teams not covering spreads as those spreads reach elevated levels. I don't know if I like watching enough to necessarily bet them, but I'm not, I am once again, not betting the Eagles.
Yeah, this was a similar scenario to Thetans where they had their high spread, low total equals pasti continuing to look phenomenal. They're strong all the way to their slot corner, so I don't expect tiny to do anything. McLaren has an issue on both sides of the field with Bradberry and Slay.
And then Samuel with Maddox, who was a, the whole starting cornerback last year and now is their third stringer. That's just how phenomenal that defense is. Eagles to continue being undefeated.
So you think maybe under 44. Yeah.
There's such way to play that. But I will say that one thing I targeted for the Texans which could be almost similar for Commanders, is that Eagles promote this this running back committee and gain well has seen a significant increase in camp.
It's been running really well. So I, I do like game ball a
lot.
Good call out actually. Judah Arju also one of our buddies was in town of New York last week, and we watched that Thriller Eagles Texans game together and we actually were betting the gain, well props, which he hit easily easier.
Yeah. So really? Yeah. Good call out there. Yeah. We took him rushing receiving combined over 21 and a half yards. Oh yeah. I think he did it, rushing alone. Yeah, good call. I think looking into gain well, props is another way to potentially take advantage of this.
All right. That wraps up our NFL Week 10 market Outlook. A lot of insights, a deeper board This week, 10, I had expected kind of the games kept going and going.
Thanks for joining Caleb and offering us a lot of your prop insights. That was awesome. Thanks everyone for listening. We'll see you you on Sunday during game trade. Caleb, I don't know if you've ever joined us during that. I know you don't necessarily lean into the live betting, but definitely join us.
How's the time?
Lots the time
I've seen your guys' clips
yeah, it's super fun and profitable, and that's why it would be awesome to have some more crop specialist who, has their eye on that because that is where there is some of the juiciest opportunities and certainly some of the most mispriced risks. Cause there's just not a lot of eyes on them. Again, yeah, thanks everyone for listening. See you on Sunday during game Trade Live vetting. Nasco and be.
