Episode Transcript
NFL Week 9: Betting Market Outlook. I'm Brett Matthew @deepvaluebettor with my co-host Judah Fortgang @throwthedamball. We're finally out of the month of October. How do you feel?
I'm glad we're out of October . I was skeptical of your October swoon that you described in Circa, but I think we're on to bigger and better things.
This will be the first week where we have some pretty heavy buys. So we got Browns, Cowboys, Broncos, Giant Steelers, Niners, So that's three games off the board. So we have a much shorter slate.
When we look at our week eight drive quality scoreboard, an x-ray looking through that realized final score. Give us a better, more accurate sense of how the two teams performed on the field.
Most of these scores lined up this week with the realized final score. The one that kind of took out to us was our jaguars once again. We did not bet them this week though, which was savvy cuz we were flirting with it on last week's pod.
And we're able to avoid that blow up once again. I slept through that early game, but when I woke up and you're explaining to me how the game went, it was just like, it's the same thing.
It's just like a high leverage. That, blows it. Lawrence throws an awful pick from first single goal to one.
This has been the story of the year. Roughing the path around a key interception. It just, it keeps biting them. They were winning for most of the game. It's just crucial mistakes. And the defense allowed a 60 yard play and the final drive, and Lawrence throws a pick on the first yeah, the first play of trying to come back.
Yeah. So the Broncos 1 21 17 did and covered the plus one and a half Jaguars to two and six and don't cover yet another number as a favorite. Our drive quality scoreboard has the Jags winning 22 to 21, but still not covering that one and a half. Nope. Time, weight, average margin plus two time, weight, average wind probability, 63%.
And these are the types of numbers though, that we've seen consistently weaken week out with the Jags. And it hasn't been generating any athletes. And we finally, backed off of it, just let it continue to see how it played out. But what a great team to live be against. Giving you just juicy opportunity after juicy opportunity to fade them in the first half. First of all, you could play it on both sides. Play it on the front end, Yeah. Betting the jags and then fade them in the second. There's probably a lot of betters out there ripping up their Jags division tickets, which was certainly a hot bet over the off season.
Not ripping. It's not ripping. No not ripping yet. I'm not ripping yet. It's, yeah, it's not rip time. You even look at the odds for the division. I think the last time I saw it was like plus 500, which I mean, that's very low considering the current spread between Yeah. The division leaders of the, to the Jags.
They still have to. Two games, A the Titans still have a difficult schedule as to the Jaguars, but that's very refueling. And it's not as if a Titans it's not the NFC staff, the Titans are five and two.
There's still some long term bullshit look on the directs. I think you have to tie back a little bit of the expectations on Trevor Lawrence. The interesting framing that I saw which I don't know if I agree with, but I thought was an interesting thing to think about, which is that like we should actually be view Trevor Lawrence's this year as his rookie season just considering how disastrous last year was.
Which I don't necessarily agree with, but I think is an interesting framing. But either way he's in bed.
Yeah. Yeah. There's a lot of.
Lawrence apologist out there trying to give him as much benefit of the doubt given those very elevated yet unearned expectations.
But one of the things I did wanna mention was there was a lot of comebacks.
We look at the time weighted average margin for many teams that ended up winning the game outright. The dolphins time weighted average margin, t a m minus five, the Patriots just plus one the Niners, just plus one Washington, Zero. Broncos negative two. Ravens minus one and all those teams, mounted to come back and still ended up winning the game.
Even though that profile would suggest for the most part over the course of that game, they were either losing or there was a significant duration of that game where they were losing by a significant. , Yeah. Just goes to show a, there was a lot of opportunities to generate profits, live betting those key.
That's what I was, We did. Yep. We did On the Dolphins. We did on the Patriots. We did on the Niners.
I was hoping you'd bring that up. In my mind at least, was like, Okay, Nine Crush the Rims, Patriots. Crush the Jets. And you realize like that wasn't actually how the first halves played out. And I think it's important to have the foresight to know how games can turn out.
And like it would be very surprising for the ramps to have done what the Niners did to the ramps. And to know going into the game and of have that sense to, to pull the trigger lie. It's just a, I think these are good reminders of the value that exists. Live better.
Dolphins, time, weight, average wind probability, 39%.
The Niners just 53% Washington, 44% Broncos, 37%. So just another metric to really demonstrate how these teams were at a deficit or trailing or expected to lose for a majority of that game.
When we look at our week nine consensus market power rankings. Bills, chiefs Eagles, Cowboys, Ravens in the top five, followed by the Niners Bengals, Bucks Vikings. And then the Dolphins into the top 10.
The bucks at eight still is remarkable to me.
Yeah, still just a drip lower down, two spots on the week, standard deviation on them. Picking up a little bit. Our drive quality metric, easily the lowest across industry analysts. We still have the Bucks ranked 18th from a drive quality perspective.
ESPN 10th Pff, sixth, 5 38, 11th, Football Outsiders, eighth. So still mostly a top 10 team across the board. We have it, them basically barely as a top 20 team.
Some of the biggest movers on a weak basis raiders down six spots market very quick to fade the giants once they get even a sliver of weakness down three spots, Jags down another three spots.
And then from an upside perspective, the saints up five spots. So big delta there on, on that Raiders Saints game.
I think the Saints is interesting. the realization that maybe Angie Dalton is a different quarterback and maybe this hands are a different team. And it, it just like escapes people's minds. They lost a bunch. Like it's not a sexy pick. And then you look at a dominant performance and you start to unravel some of the deeper layers about the saints. But that was certainly an absolutely dominating performance. Like , the Raiders had two pressures all game and it was over from the start e and I think the Browns upgrades also, they, they dominated the Bengals a wacky first quarter.
But other than that, the game was not close. And I think it showed that there's been a lot of one score games for them, A lot of easy opponents, but The offense can still hang. Is it gonna be great? No. Are the wheels totally coming off also? No.
I wish we would've given the Saints a little bit more consideration last week cuz one of the things that we were calling out was, that primetime performance on Thursday versus the cards, they were behind pretty much the whole time, but it was primarily due to those back to back pick sixes by Andy Dalton, who otherwise played pretty decent.
And our drive quality scoreboard had the saints winning that game versus cards.
And try to use that as signal. And that's a whole intention of it, is provide signal through noisy, realized final scores and be able to use, these alternative stats in order to make more insightful, future trades, future positionings.
But the market is still relatively low on them. We see ranked 18th on the season. Standard deviation, four and a half. So some pretty elevated disagreements still.
Our drive quality. Has the Saints ranked as a top 10 team?
Exactly.
And no one else does. So after that, ESPN is the highest on them at 13th. Ff lowest on them at 24th. So a pretty wide gap there, in that standard deviation. Really quantifying that.
The other team who we lost money on was the Cardinals.
And I know, we wanna reevaluate them and adding Deandre Hopkins as a meaningful addition. And so we can't necessarily look into our drive quality metric and see we have the Cardinals ranked 31st, because that takes into a lot consideration. Obviously a team without Deandre Hawkins.
But we were monitoring that Vikings game pretty closely. Bet them on the opener. Had some of them on the alt line, leaned a little bit more into them as they went into a deficit. They came back, took the lead 1410. We didn't lock in any gains . And then, we also wanna try to take advantage of, which I like and still strongly at I think was the right decision, was to lean into fading Vikings in second half.
Vikings with a lead. Can't hold a lead. That whole thesis. Yeah. But the Cardinals have been a clunky offense. And even with the addition of Hopkins, they just get blown out in this game if they don't have someone like de
yeah. I mean they were leaning on him and he was making one end to catch us in the end zone.
Just like letting Kyle or play the backyard game. Now it's gonna work or it's gonna not there. There are some interesting data points there that Kyle Murray was the best ball thrower in the league last year.
He was also in his rookie year, his sophomore year top five by most efficiency metrics, throwing deep. And this year he is like third to worst. I think that's probably a product more than anything else. And I wish Hollywood Band was back, so I could really bet on that. But I do expect to see some improvement in that area.
So the bottom side of the cassette market rankings Texans at the bottom.
Consensus, worst team in the league. Very low standard deviation lesson than one Panthers at 31 lines at 30th. Bears at 29th, Steelers 28th to round out the bottom five teams of the league. Does that seem about right? Yeah. Any mispricing here? Cause this is where there could be good opportunity to take advantage of misevaluation.
Yeah.
I'd flip the pulse and football team and I think those top sets are in a separate tier of teams I think are bad. They're bad and I expect them to lose most weeks. Yeah. I think the rest enter a tier of like competency and like in this environment, the like difference between the jaguars and the ravens,
I don't think it's that large. I think there is a big gap though. On the between those six teams like cults, the Steelers, the bears, the tax ends, panthers, those teams are bad.
And then we look at teams with the largest standard deviation in market power rank. So giving us a sense of how much disagreement is there.
Across the way industry analysts are power ranking these teams. And we have a new number one team with the largest standard deviation, the titans, almost 10 spots. Our drive quality has the Titans rank 20th, ESPN 22, FF seventh, 5 38, fifth Football Outsiders 19th in predict, again, more shorter term oriented 28th.
Also still huge disagreement around the Seahawks, the Colts, the Jags, and now the Rams as well in, in the top five with the highest standard deviations. You have football outsiders with the Rams at a market low ranking them 24th, and you have ff at a market high ranking, the Rams still in the top 10 at eighth.
Any exploitable value here trying to take advantage of the market not knowing how to price these teams?
Yeah, I talked about this in my, my reflection note, which will come at tomorrow about I think you almost have to lean into the fact that Gina Smith might be good and there's something we may have missed in our expectation coming into the season.
And like maybe quarterback play isn't as simple as we thought. But use the available evidence. Like it's not as if he's good in producing in unstable metrics, right? It's not like he's getting lucky and that production is good. He's Bla has a legitimate quarterback.
Why is that gonna automatic? Like why's it gonna stop? What's gonna change that magically he is gonna just return to his previous self. I know PF for instance, has a very strong prior in the quarterback, which is why PFF has the Rams and the buck so hot.
Yeah. And that's a reason to sell the Rams, but just it's a somewhat, it's like a known quantity with Stafford. Stop playing well, like what? The offensive line is not good. What's gonna change? And
Cup is being up and yeah, if he's anything less than a full compliment to that offense, that could break down fast.
Yeah. And they're already bad already by EPA standards, the worst offense in the league. Their secondary weapons aren't getting better. Alan Robinson's washed, dense harmonics, they're third receiver. Their defense hasn't been as good.
I don't see why that would change. I do see, the Seahawks as a team to buy. We have enough evidence from this season to suggest like they're gonna be good. And I would need to see a couple bad games for me to kinda leap off that prior, but I'm ready to buy them. And even the Colts, like they're not the preseason team, They're just not I think there's a lot of exploitable pricing throughout the board.
Basically just because there were like three good teams, five bad teams and a hodgepodge of others in between.
Yep. I actually love just how, again, like cuz we're not manually tinkering or anything like that with these drive quality, market power rankings. This is just being spit out by the computer and, but how it lines up so perfectly almost with how we actually see these teams from a relative positioning perspective.
Again, it's got an element of, it's been predicted on a forward looking basis, but yeah, there, there's an asterisk there.
The fact that it's not exactly aligned is good. Cause that makes me think that like I'm not just facing my assumptions off what the computer fit . It is very good job grounding you and sourcing where there might be some
to capitalize on.
Yeah. One interesting one that stuck out to me too was Packers at 29th in drive, quality. So a career market low. What's ESPN eighth, PFF 10. Pretty much everyone has them as a top 15 team, if not a top 10 team. Yeah, we have 'em right now. Price is a bottom four team based on drive quality.
Which it makes sense in like even a more rewarding sign, like their defense has been amazing on third deaths. Third and fourth downs, like teams have a negative 0.4 epa that's like magnitudes worse than the worst NFL offense. That's probably a little bit unstable. There's a lot, there are a lot of worrying signs, but again, everyone's Ah, it's Aaron Rogers, the Packers.
I think there are some fundamental flaws. There, the market's still gonna price them up there. It's still
gonna sell.
Okay. Let's move into NFL Week nine. Eagles. Texans on Thursday night Football. Eagles minus 14 opened up a little bit less than that, but it's just been creeping up. It's gonna take a lot of Moxi to back the Texans even at 14, especially coming off a miserable game versus the Titans where they didn't even flirt with throwing the ball.
And Dare Henry still just absolutely shredded them. Is 14 enough points? Do the Eagles scare? Do the Eagles need to? Do they take a 21 point lead into. And then take the foot off the pedal and, and we've seen the Texans over the course of the season.
Again, they put in a really bad game last week, but we've seen them over the course of the season be able to put some things together, especially in the second half and start covering some numbers. Or are we also at the point of the season where it's like full realization, we're not good, we're not going to the playoffs, no sneaky rallies or anything like that.
Davis Mills certainly hasn't cemented himself by any means as the quarterback of the future. There's drama with Brandon Cooks. Lovey Smith could potentially be a one and done coach.
Obviously the Eagles are far better than Texans that go into that saying , I think it almost cancels out the back door.
Ah, depending, anyone disagrees there. That's a tough, that's a tough call. The Eagles have struggled to extend leads. They take their foot off the gas, but like the Texans don't have interest in coming back either.
I think it's the game against Colts. They punt on fourth and two from the 50 with eight minutes old truck conservative. They're also not trying to take aggressive action to, to come back. I think they're, as kinda last week showed they're just, they're coming in, they're coming out.
They know it's a rebuilding year. I'm not comfortable backing the textings at this stage, given their lack of urgency that they've shown in second advocates.
This total seems high at 45 given it's a Thursday night game. I imagine this game is just gonna be ugly. I don't necessarily see the Eagles like just blowing the Texans out by 30. 45 seems pretty high in the NFL prediction game, least Sharps NFL prediction game.
What are you gonna, what are you put in the Eagles at? So the market has 'em as at what, like 83 or 84? Maybe?
87%. Yeah. I'm gonna put 'em at 79. Whoa.
76. You love the Texans, then?
No, I'm just not take willing to take the risk of an 80 and 85. Sure. There might be value, but it's not something I'm betting. I'm not betting blindly based on what my internals say.
There has to be some good reason to trigger the bet. The best advantage sports betters have over books that we choose the best. We don't have to bet every game.
Yeah. Just getting way too cute by trying to bet the Texans. What's supporting the 14 is just cuz there's gonna be certain pro beers out there again who bet in volume and are literally trying to win at a 54% clip and they're just gonna bet 14.
Yeah, because it's 14. Exactly. It doesn't matter
who it's, Yeah. One of the things I look for when I'm betting a 14 is that, is there any scenario the Texans winning. I just, I don't see it.
This is not even like a Bear's Patriots type thing. Which was obviously shocking. In a very volatile season with a lot of parody. This is a top three team versus what we have consensus, worst team in the league.
Exactly.
All right.
Colts five and a half at New England over under 40. I know this touched six, six and a half maybe. Something like that. What at the open? So gotten bid lower. Patriots were at a 10 zero deficit last week.
Verse the Jets Mac Jones throwing three picks. Also, under a ton of pressure, five and a half seems like a pretty big number for a Patriots offense that isn't explosive by any means.
What about a under first quarter? I'm looking at, drive quality, scripted versus not scripted, performance. And Cols certainly one of the worst teams from a scripted perspective. But Patriots also not very good at all in the bottom. Yeah.
Six. And I will add that both defenses also are pretty good descriptive, which I think is a little more noisy than the offensive part, but it certainly helps the narrative.
Under seven plus 1 0 5.
Yeah.
like One of the things that worries me a bit with script stuff is it seem like the Bengals. Struggling scripted until they hit the 75 yard touchdown. A Tyler boy against the Falcons.
The Colts and Patriots don't have that punch.
It's gonna have to be, marching up and down the field. And that's something that's a little more comforting
betting it.
Chargers minus three and a half plus 100 currently. So you can find some threes out there still at Falcons over under 49 and a half. I feel like it's time to buy the Chargers.
How the script has. Me not willing to wanting to back the charger, but you being comfortable with it.
There are two hesitations I have.
Justin Herbert has not been the same quarterback since the injury. That's the first thing. Full stop. And this leads into the second point, but it's really just an, a extension of the first, which is like Keenan Allen's unlikely to play.
He set himself back during the bi week. Mike Williams is out. Who's he throwing to? And Herbert at his desk can elevate anyone, but he's not playing that way right now.
Justin Herbert checked down on seven percent's passes last year. He first in the NFL and checked that rate out like 13%. Justin Herbert is not the guy you on checking down. And I think it actually is a decision making thing where it's like I, she's gonna not, he doesn't wanna take the hit.
I don't think he's the same quarterback. He's legitimately not, he's not good. He's not been playing well and I think we have to, we can't just say, Oh, because it was good in the past, he'll be good in the future.
We gotta understand the present situation and I don't think it speaks well for the Chargers. I like the under, honestly.
Yeah, this is one
of the highest, that's 49 and a half. I'm probably gonna take an alt under, and this is one of the plays we've been talking about offline which is taking an alternate, a under, let's say you get like a plus 200 on 45 and a half. 44 and a half. If the first quarter goes your way, at a certain point in that line moves down that you can have the intention of hedging off that. And certainly if the game script kind of allows and you can see you live, does Harbert look comfortable?
Does Harbert look like he's returning back to his old form? And then you can get out or you can let your ticket, right?
I love those strategies. One of the things that we've been leveraging from a live betting perspective is coming up with a hypothetical script to try to isolate entry opportunities at attractive prices, but not necessarily coming up with a two sided trade in the sense of trying to time an entry within an expectation of an exit, usually, right?
We're just trying to get good prices and then letting it ride and trying to just be directionally right on the outcome. And not trying to capitalize on intra game volatility, which is a whole nother element of a trading strategy and is a true trading strategy, not just being a value better which is what we've more or less been doing with the live betting, is trying to find deep value opportunities, leverage into those and then capitalize meaningfully if the directional bet pays.
But we should try to be more opportunistic around leveraging into these deep out of the money alt lines that are plus three 50, plus 400 off the bat or somewhere else in the game. And then as that moves down 250 points or whatever, then you can just bet it on the other side. And the best thing is, it's low probability, but if you mitigate your risk and basically make it a risk free bet and you create a three or four point middle opportunity.
You create like jackpot scenario.
I was gonna say also the middle part is huge to this. Yeah. And it's a matter of timing and if you wanna talk about Edge, right? You're manipulating different points in time. Because when the sports book is pricing one thing, they have an endpoint and you as the better can manipulate that endpoint and create edge by manipulating the timing.
That's huge. Yeah. There's a ton of value in that.
And one of the things we were talking about offline that we wanna put together is to be able to create these these volatility curves for each one of these teams, to see how they're priced from an tline perspective and overlay that with this team's propensity to be volatile, to extend leads to evaporate leads, a collapse factor and a comeback factor.
And to what extent can they do that and at what magnitude? Cuz then that can give you a framework to help understand. More precisely where you wanna leg in to those alt lines, specific to the matchup, specific to the team, and not using a one size fits all approach for every game and every matchup and every team.
Because that's not gonna be as precise. Right now we're just more or less eyeballing it, just using, giving
away a secret. Yeah. ,
I can also still edit this out.
Okay. Dolphins. At Bears. Dolphins minus five.
Man, this number keeps creeping higher. Yeah, I think it was like three, three and a half, then it was four Now five at 45 and a half was the total, we were talking with Corey, at cars 24 on Twitter. Thinking that this could be a potential under opportunity. There's a potential weather element as well. We're still several days out. That can definitely change. It's supposed to be like super windy, that's the forecast. And we know if wind reaches a certain level, 20, 25 miles per hour. When you reach that certain threshold is when it does actually materially impact the total.
Material impacts the total, because it really eliminates the passing game, right? That's been a staple of the dolphins offense, the intermediate, the passing game. That's a very interesting angle to, to monitor.
And also if you wanna talk about winds, I don't think that's probably being priced in right now. If you wanna talk about, the buying something now to sell at a later point, the total's not moving. You can either get out now, or if there's a chance that this total drops down to 42 41 as a result of the winds, you can essentially cash out the closing line value.
Basically saying this debt is just on the wind actually being legit. And if not, like great, you still have an under that
you like. And I think this number is a little bit artificially high. One of the things that we talked about last week was the dolphins have star power on offense and you feel like basically what they did verse the lions that they should be able to do that every week, But they don't.
Yeah. Pretty much they did it verse the lions, First of all, they didn't do it in the first quarter. Even during lines. Again, when we looked at the time, weight, average margin, it was negative for them. I feel like people have already forgotten that they were down 21 to seven. And couldn't put points on the board versus a terrible lions defense.
And of course they in corked it in the second half, and then the lion couldn't stop them at all. But then outside of that game and outside the second half versus the Ravens, the dolphins haven't been, putting up 30 points a game. No. And we just saw the Bears Stephens blow up versus the, So I think people are saying, Oh, now the dolphins are gonna do that versus the bears.
It's an interesting litmus test, which is, we talked about the matchups for the dolphins. You said the two games. I've cashed two. Same game parlays with the dolphins. This season in the Ravens game and last week, both of which were matchups that identify, and this is something we said on the offseason preview, something we said in the week one stuff.
The dolphins are going to be very sensitive to matchups very sensitive. And this is not one of the matchups to buy. They'll be a screaming by in some cases like they were last week. This is not it. Jill and Drop is a really good corner. Jaquan b Brisco and Elliot Jackson are good safeties.
Secondary for the bears is not a mess. Will they be able to generate pressure? Probably not. Certainly if there's wind involved, this is not a spot to buy the Dolphins passing, in fact.
Also, if Chubb plays for the Dolphins, that just puts even more pressure on a Bear's team that gives up pressure.
And a quarterback like Justin Fields that cr
creates its own pressure. Pathetic pressure, . Yeah, exactly. And jumps over defenders. ,
Yes. Not in a good way. Exactly
not when he is supposed to.
play was just emblematic of one of the reasons why, I just skimmed over, not talking too much about last week's betting performance, just cuz I'm like still on tilt from so many things that just went awry.
That play was just infuriated in Saturday. In Saturday. And then there was another bet that I had even in the late agen slate betting one of those super deep outta the money all unders on the Titans Texans. I had under 20 and a half plus four 50. And then the Texans drive, down the last 45 seconds to score touchdown to blow that one up.
And it's just can't help. So angry.
Vikings minus three and a half at Washington over under 43 and a half. We see the Vikings from the consensus market powering perspective as a top 10 team. Even our drive quality has an at seven. Three and a half on the road. That doesn't make me comfortable.
No, I think the spot to attack here is alive over. On, on the scripted place. I, by our drive quality these are the number two and three defenses on scripted place Minnesota basically has no difference as you can see on the, Yeah, interesting.
That's very interesting. Yeah. And if you go back to the other graph the offensive one the Vikings are more or less the same. But the commanders are almost a point per drive, better are so bad on the scripted place off the scripted place.
That all four of those kind of angles, offenses, and defenses of line up for a live over situation.
Yeah, I like that angle. So basically, and what you're meaning is this game's gonna start off potentially slow. And let that line drip lower and then try to take advantage of a more attractive line.
And that's where you can still play an alt line. It's just you wait for that alt line to materialize. And you can get maybe the market line, the 43 and a half, but you're gonna get it at plus 2 25.
Another game with an attractive first quarter under.
We can get under seven and a half minus one 15. Oh,
That's attractive.
Panthers plus seven and a half at Cincinnati over under 42 and a half. The Bengals put in a total clunker on the road at a division fo in Cleveland, but the Falcons just put up 30 plus on the Panther's defense.
Is the Bengal's offense materially different without Jamar Chase, or is this more byproduct of it was just a bad game. I would say the 42 and a half is the aspect there that seems exploitable. I don't feel strongly about the spread.
I don't feel that strongly about the spread.
I You ask a is this team fundamentally different with Chase or not?
I'm not sure. I wanna see no wait to week. And nothing about the Panther screens by at all. I think PJ Walker introduces a lot more variance on both ends, right? He's gonna throw that awful big sticks against the to linebacker. And he is also gonna throw a 65 yard dime.
Yeah, I PJ Walker still his C P O E was negative 10%.
EPA pro plays zero. I feel like He's getting like a lot of positive press off that game. He actually didn't play that well. No, he's not good. Certainly vulnerable to skew very bad.
I don't know if necessarily the Bengals defense is the one, although the BES defenses has generally played well this season.
They lost some key players. We talking to DJ at na, but
went out that game.
Yeah he's been a key corner for them. Especially anything actually matters more and getting against the Panthers where they really don't have one good receiving option. At the end of the day though, these are teams and in different tiers that I'm not willing to buy it.
Panthers one of the best on a defensive drive quality perspective. And the Bengals start relatively slow. Yeah. Yeah. They sold the explosive play capacity, but it's certainly lessened without Jamar chases. Yeah. You look at the wide receivers, like t Higgins and Tyler Boyd who've played really well, but they benefit on an ancillary basis from the draw of someone like Jamar Chase, and maybe they can't necessarily do it on standalone basis.
That's a great point. I think almost looking at these chart crystallizes that if you had a slight lean towards the Bengals, probably let this one play out live in the first quarter. Understand that b probably won't get going and you can probably get this line at least on the other side of seven.
Oh yeah, definitely. Yeah. If the first quarter does go zero, zero or so, just something low scoring, then you're definitely gonna get the Bengals under that touchdown. Basically. What I would say too is there's gonna be a point in time in this game where you can get Bengals minus six.
Exactly. Purely different than seven and a half.
Exactly. Which is why it is, this is one of the spots where I really don't see value betting before the game.
Yeah. So if you like the Bengals wait live and then potentially a first quarter bet on the under. And then potentially getting a letting that all, letting that total drip lower and then potentially get beta over at a juicier price.
Bills minus 12 and a half at the Jets over under 47. I washed that Bills Packers game all the way through. My impression from that game was I, the bills could have crushed the Packers if they wanted to, but they were just like toying with the Packers.
It was just like, a nonchalant, casual type game. Took a sufficient two score lead. The game was never in doubt from the perspective of the bill's actually winning and they got a little bit reckless and careless and specifically Josh Allen throwing some passes at, of just trying to force the issue. He certainly doesn't.
Make those throws if this was a very close game or they were felt truly threatened by the Packers, which they never did. Yeah. Yeah. And then on the Packer side is I just didn't like their game plan, which was one of the reasons too, I felt like the Bills didn't cover. Cuz their whole game plan was like milk clock, tried to have like double digit play drives. The thing is like they never got really within two scores.
So like that's, that
strategy was not gonna something that bothers me. Yeah. Something it's like they
were playing the game to cover.
Everyone on Twitter, it was like, Oh the Packers should have been playing this way the entire time. No, the bills were more than happy to let you play that game plan.
They were almost allowing you to succeed cuz they want you to run the ball and chew up a bunch of clock cuz they control the entirety of the game and you're not threatening to win if you're being forced to march up the field, five yard run by five yard run at a time. Yeah, they were efficient cuz the bills wanted them to be efficient there.
All of which is to say, I don't think we're gonna have the same scenario play out again. I think the bills are too smart. They know how much is at stake where you can't be, having this kinda lax mistake pro football if they wanna be, This is their year. This is their Super Bowl year.
Yes. They know they have to cut it out in a divisional game. I don't think they're gonna be messing around at all. I like the build a lot actually.
And certainly the strengths of the Jets is the defense are just totally mitigated when you play offense like Josh Allen. And they're offenses. Ooh, this is a mismatch. Sam Darnold might be seeing ghosts under pressure. I don't know what Zach Wilson when Zach Wilson sees pressure, it's, he's running around and throwing lollipop picks.
And the bills are, that's where they're best. They send for, they get pressure at a top clip. It's a total mismatch for Zach Wilson. I don't see anything that the Jets do well as an advantage towards them in this spot.
So now packers at the Lions I did bet the Packers minus three. So now this is moved up to four primarily one. Cuz again, I don't think the game plan was the right game plan to execute first the bills, but as far as that was the game plan that they wanted to execute, they did execute it well.
And to your point, maybe the bills really, created the conditions to allow them to continue to execute that cause it was to their advantage. Yeah. Yeah. But I liked what I saw. one of the reasons why we wanted to fade also the Packers last week was, no cob, no Lazard, and that was some of the receivers that Rogers had the most chemistry with.
But I think, he's developing a nice chemistry with Dobbs and Dobbs made two or three really incredible catches in that game. And I understand maybe he's not still great at running the proper routes, getting the proper separation, but the dude is definitely an athlete. I think this is a sell off on the part packers that's just a little bit, too much. And if the Packers cannot score on the lions, then this is the game. I think you can definitively say the Packers have very serious deep offensive issues that are not correctable this season.
I'm a week ahead. I think that's already happened. Just depends on how you wanna flip the narrative, which is is it that the Lion defense is so bad, it's going to allow for the packers to wake up? Or is the packers all found so bad it doesn't even matter? The packers won't be able to take advantage.
I think we got a spot with the lion at home. Their offenses play great at home. And I still think the factors that, although it did score
zero points in the second half,
true. But I, a lot of that I think is a function of taking their foot off the gas too soon.
I like the lions here. Ugh. The Packers should not be a four point favorite against. Anyone on the road?
The Packer's issues are so fundamental and I don't think a match up with lines is what the doctor ordered.
I'm not saying it's a get right in the sense of correct the issues and this kind of sets 'em on a new path, but this can be a game that the Packers can feel better about themselves.
Their implied total is 27. They haven't sniffed that number.
They haven't scored 27 points until the overtime game against the Patriots and the Bears gave me too. With that said, I think if you do the offense to get going, I think you bet something like Packer's money line and over 23 and a half like even money,
but I don't like this.
Especially of what they showed on Sunday night was their game plan, that it's just like your offense is going to be so run heavy. I think yeah. It's asking for issues.
You definitely could be right. Could be. It's definitely bottom picking, trying to vet the packers here.
Trying to call bottom when you haven't necessarily seen the evidence again.
I wanna say, if you go back to our power chart,
we'll see that packers are a limit. Our direct quality starts 29th. Yeah. Huge discrepancy. And what does he predict to have it at? 13. Yep. I don't think we're buying the bottom yet. I think we gotta get a little lower before we buy.
Raiders minus as one and a half on the road at the Jags. Finally getting a bit of a selloff here on the Jags. Okay, so the Raiders obviously gonna look terrible. Now we're getting the Jags at home. Finally, starting to get a little bit of points.
I think I like the Jas. Yep. We finally didn't pull the trigger on them last week. Yeah. Now do we go
back? Which is why we had our breaks, we were rewarded for our break. Yes. And we'll continue to be rewarded when we got them again this week.
I could fully sponsor this one cause it's, again, it's just all the evidence suggest to keep leaning into the jags. Yep. And we're just getting like really unlucky. And this is somewhat of a two-sided handicap in the sense of, from a macro perspective, macro sell of the Raiders. Macro. Buy of the Jags.
I don't hate also betting a Jaguars not under. So if the Jaguars are leading this game, I'm pushing the pace. I think it's a lot of runs, a lot of slowing down the clock. Yeah. And blaming it out. I actually, this
is Yeah. You're also gonna get a lot of run
from the Raiders too. True. That's what they're looking to do.
I actually really like that.
The under
This is a very high total 48. Yeah. That very curious why it's actually priced that high. That
is, It is weird. I thought this game would be like threw 43 44. This is certainly an intriguing spot.
Yeah. Yeah. I agree. Yeah. Jags plus one and a
half, you can get a Jags money line on draft games, Jags money line and under 47 and a half or plus 300
juicy.
Sea O plus two at Arizona.
I think this opened three Sea been bid. Total 49 and a half.
Let's first quarter definitely in play. You can get the CX at plus one 10 on the money line. I think. You bet. Cardinals 20 to one division bed, which they absolutely need. That's the take of the long term piece of playing out in the game. And you hedge with a Seahawks money line bed.
And if the Cardinals win right, and you hold the long term prior, their odds are not gonna, you're gonna go from 20 to one, to seven to one, eight to one, get a ton of value on that ticket and they need the spot. I think that's the best way to capitalize honestly on a win if they can beat the Seahawks.
I think it shows the type of team the colonels might be down the stretch and if they lose great. That division that is basically evaluat, maybe you'll be able to get it back to 20 to one to cash out and you have your, plus one 10, maybe you can probably get a plus 1, 1 15 at principal.
The first quarter again looking at the drive quality scripture for non scripted, cardinals right there are in the bottom. That's of almost like a structural standard bet. Week in, week out fade the cardinals first quarter. Yeah. But then especially when it's a first team that's actually good in the first
quarter.
Yeah. The cardinals are dread on defense scripted also.
So that lines up perfect. Yep. And if even if you wanna bet the Cardinals, then you might as well wait in game and get the cards.
At least plus three maybe. Yeah.
It's thought about the sea time before the game. Yeah.
Rams plus three at the books. This was under a field goal. Now creeped up to a field goal over under 42 and a half. That seems high even for this game as well. Yep. You're talking about, the Rams being one of the least efficient offenses in the league and now with Cooper Cup, banged up.
As we talked about kinda all season, the buck still do have that high ceiling. It hasn't materialized, but I don't even think the ramps have a high ceiling.
No. Unless they match, they fix their line and secondary receiving issues and gets better.
This is another live spot for me and. I think Ray, if you go to our scripted stuff, the Rams are fifth worst off script. It's still pretty good on script. And if you go to the defensive side, you look at where the bucks are, it's not pretty bad. Scripted. Good. Regular.
Oh yeah. Very nice.
And I think the bucks on offense are pretty much the same and the defense, as you can see for the Rams is exactly at the average.
So I wouldn't be shocked to see the Rams jump out to it lead. Yeah. And if we can get like a, a seven nothing lead Rams jump out as two and a half point favorites and then we can move the line back to starting point thinking that should be priced in but is not. That's the spot
I'm looking at.
I love this. This is the perfect lineup. Yep. Bucks bad scripted, good. Regular. Should they come back later in the game? Play better Defense. And if the Rams are gonna score any points at all, it's gonna be early. Yep. And then after that, nothing . This is actually my favorite setup so far.
Maybe it might be even worthwhile betting Rams plus three quarters certainly first quarter, but
betting them at the plus three, assuming that it could be a potentially close game. Two teams that struggle to score and then but the buck at the plus two and a half, potentially plus three. Yeah, if the Rams get that initial lead. Yep. And then if that chooses the total as well early then to come in and bet potentially all.
At. This moves up to 45 and a half. 46 and a half, all under 41 and a half plus two 20, by
the way. Plus 4 75 rams. First quarter money line bucks game money line.
Oh yeah. That's another nice setup. Yeah. Rams. First quarter bucks game plus 4 75. That's definitely worth a role for sure.
Titans plus 12 and a half at the Chiefs.
Do we know who's gonna be quarterback?
I think Ryan's at LS back. He said last week was a illness more than anything else. I
don't hate the Titans. Because again, the chiefs are elite. The chiefs are our top three team. But as I mentioned on previous dreams, I don't feel comfortable betting the chiefs with margin.
I think that was more true in previous years.
I think they're fine to extend on teams.
They did it most recently verse the Niners and they did it to open up versus extremely banged up card team and outside of that, they haven't done it.
Bills four game Raiders. One point game Colts, three point game chargers. Three point game. Yeah. OX 10 point game.
I'm out screaming to buy the. The Chiefs. I much prefer the 12 and a half the bills. What would again be interesting, as we know what the Titans deal is.
Yeah. We know what the chiefs, I'd love to get
this number down. Yeah. That's been a theme. Yeah. All season Titans one of the best
scripted case.
What's the total on the first quarter?
Oh, can we get a little first quarter over? Yeah. Over nine on
action.
It's interesting. I think I'd rather be alive but yeah. Yeah. I like it. We're saving with the best for last. I think
Ravens at Saints here. Rav Ravens minus two and a half on the road. So you like the Saints?
Yes. Okay. Here's the, here's I think the take on one leg. Okay. Andy Dalton has been dominant, right? He's top 10. If you look at production Xs like top 10, epa, top five PFF grade.
But what's most surprising is it's not like Cooper Rush was like really good in uns stable areas. I play against the blitz play under pressure that's not, this. Dalton is top five in whether there like a play from a clean pocket, early downs plays with that play action, avoiding negative plays.
Essentially. There's like very little evidence from 2022 to suggest that is plays flukey. But of course there's gonna be that like expectation of, oh, it's Andy Dalton. But I think that's almost baked into the price and why it's a t is Dalton the savior? I don't know for playing a long term pieces.
Is he the quarterback I wanna trot out and say, this is my top five quarterback? No, probably not, but, and this is my favorite play here, which is we get a over 23 and a half on the Saints, combine that with the Saints T minus five and a half plus three 10, as opposed to just taking the three, the five and a half at plus two 20. If that thesis is true. , right? It's not a 50 50 outcome. It's not minus one 10 on each side. We're getting plus three 10, which is basically just saying that Dalton is a top five quarterback right now and in this current moment, if that's true, they're going to score more than 24 points.
They're going to beat the Ravens. It's a material mispricing. And like I'm willing to take that plus three 10. It's a massive asymmetric race. There are also some good, very intriguing matchup angles for this one. The first of which is Lamar Jackson, basically all of his production has come against the blitz.
His expected points outta his EPA is 0.27 when facing the blitz and this negative 0.04, when not being blitz, these blitz 40% of the time on average, but the saints are one of the lowest blitz risks in the league at 17%. Okay? So I think that's a major step back. The Ravens all offense. The other thing is this has been a trend for years now.
The Saints have the number one rush defense in the nfl. Last year they were number one Rush defense and epa. The year before that they were three. They're back in first this year they're top five against rushing quarterbacks, which includes design runs and scrambled. And they're perfectly equipped to stop what the Ravens do best.
And if we're gonna get Lamar Jackson in a situation where he has to pass, that essentially takes away all the value of the Ravens offense, right? In expected pass situations. Lamar Jackson is like 15th or 16th and the Lingus not a top five offense. It's a totally average offense. All this with abatement and a bang banged up market.
Andrews not to mention that the Saints strengthened their defenses, their covered linebackers with Mario Davis, Pete Warner, it's a perfect match up. And like I still think there's a material in this pricing because it's Oh, that's Andrew Dalton. It's what if Dalton's really good? What if he's like Gina Smith
I like it. I definitely wouldn't go as far to say there's any question around how good Andy Dalton is. He can be good in periods, like he's not rejuvenating his career potentially like Geno Smith is so
Fine, maybe I shouldn't have used the geno example.
I was just saying that as illustrative of the type of quarterback who we all wrote off before the season of being dead and Oh, he is washed, he's on his third team, he's a journeyman, it's over. And now he's actually producing really well. And we're like, Huh, what's going. And I think it's not fair to just project and say we thought about quarterback play in 2019, or we thought about it in 2017 and all of Oh, Justin Herbert's like the better quarterback.
He's not playing that way right now and this is not just all one off. This is happening all across the league. Something materially has changed and why wouldn't I lean into that? Maybe it's wrong. Great. I lose my principle if I'm right though. I'm making plus three 10.
Yeah. Multiples.
I'm just realizing something I which is mostly incorporated in our drive quality stuff, which I think is why these saints are so high. I think people see the stance as Ah, it's not a great defense.
They've basically generated no turnovers, which considering their talents is pretty surprising.
Yeah. Yeah, I saw that. Like one of the worst, I think it was. Yeah. Generated
off turnovers a standard deviation worse on EPA off turnovers.
It's third or fourth worst. The match angles are certainly on their side.
From the future's perspective, some of the thesis are certainly playing out and in office and previews. I was saying the Saints were my favorite to win the division. Yes. It was 500 a couple days ago now down to four 50 on Draft Kings. I'm sure you can probably find it slightly better prices.
I, it was five 50. I bet it November 1st.
You moved the line. I
moved the line.
I'm sure you could find better prices out there as well at multiples like that. I think the Saints should be the second favorites. Right now, the bucks for minus 1 25, the Falcons are plus 2 25.
The Saints are plus four. we were talking about the Falcons looked attractive as a division winner at plus 700 a couple weeks ago. Yeah. Plus 2 25 is terrible.
The
Saints aren't even healthy.
No Saints can get, That's what's much better over time. Yeah. They can get much
better. What are, Oh gosh. Oh gosh. I'm being talked into, What are the Super Plots
conference? I won't go that far. ,
if you gimme anything more than like 50 to one, I'd love it.
Not for super for. Plus 9,000 on. Ooh. Ooh. I got, given the weakness of the nfc, I could see how it could potentially be a play. Yeah. You go in and hedge it.
Yeah. And I'm not letting it ride.
Yeah. But given the state of the NFC and again on the off chance they figured something out with Andy Dalton and I trusted this event, especially as it gets healthy will be good. Yeah. In this nfc this. Especially if they have a home playoff game cause they win the division.
True that it's gonna be 30 to one pops, I think 15 to one. It's great value.
Yeah, you're right. The thing is too is in this nfc, to your point, if you get into the playoffs, it's. Ooh. Should be like even money for like basically any team besides the Eagles to get to the Super Bowl.
It's intriguing, I have to say. It's intriguing.
Good stuff. That wraps up the week nine Betting Market Outlook. Thanks everyone for joining. Thanks everyone for listening. And we'll see you on Sunday live betting. Make some cash, take care of everyone. And that's the closing bell.
