Episode Transcript
NFL Week 12 betting market outlook. Live from New York City. Thanksgiving Week, three Games Kicking off Tomorrow. So as people listen to this, games are already going to be starting. So let's get right into it.
Week 11 drive Quality scoreboard. Some interesting scores. Browns bills according to drive quality earned points. Brown's 33, bills 32.
We had a very successful live betting weekend. One of our most successful of the season. But Bills was one of those games that we actually didn't make any money on, didn't place any bets on. And normally this would be where we would be buying the dip on a team like the Bills.
Soon as you get any sort of discount on an elite team, like the Bills, we're gonna try and take advantage of it. And we were of hesitant the whole time. In fact, there was a little while we were flirting with, maybe we should start taking some browns. And we could see at the time, weighted average margin, browns just minus three time weighted average would probability 36%.
So the final score makes it seem a little bit like, the bills, how to wipe the floor with the Browns, but that wasn't really the case at all. And certainly from a drive quality perspective, it says the Browns played better. Net Net.
Yeah. I certainly had a lot of caution with betting the bills. Yeah, also there are a bunch of pretty noteworthy scores. Washington barely beat the Texans. Yeah. At least by our drive quality, they really helped out by a pick six. And I think the narrative is oh, Washington's won a bunch of games in a row. Houston's really bad. And Washington's a care business and the time weighted average was certainly much larger.
It was 14. The game wasn't close in that sense, but it wasn't because the Washington was playing so well. So I maybe pumped the brakes a little bit on some Washington optimism. Let's remember who's playing quarterback. And even though they might be at 500, I still don't think they're a particularly great team.
I like that drive quality kind of reinforced this live betting notion as well, because there was a series where I was pitching, Hey, maybe should we take some Texas. And it wasn't because the Texans look so great, but it was like Texans double digits. It was like out to plus 14, plus 17, and it wasn't like Washington was doing anything.
They got that the pick six like early on. But Washington didn't look good. And this is why this drive quality model is, especially over the course of the season, is really providing a lot of value because this matches the eye test.
This is what you would've wanted to see is man Washington didn't look good. I The taxes didn't look good either, but Washington still ended up winning by double digits. This says they just barely squeaked it out. So you looked at the earned points over, realized negative 10 points.
They scored 10 more points on a drive-by drive basis actually justified them scoring.
Yeah, even the bears.
Do we have 'em handling, being and we were talking about just, we had an incredible day live betting. I had by far my best day of the season and still how much better it would've been if the bears actually came out with that game. In our drive? Quality says they, they probably should, were at least were the better team moving the ball.
Yeah, that's a great point. Actually. This is how good of a live betting weekend that we did have because I was so tilty on that Bear's game, but I actually forgot, I forgot that was like one of the biggest losers that we had.
I just love this, the fact that drive quality is again saying the bear should have won that game decisively by a full touchdown. Yeah. And basically reinforcing that those live trades that we took on the bears, which were deeper outta the money too, we had the plus three and a half plus 1 25, which ended up covering.
But those deeper, plus two 10, plus three 10 money lines ended up not cashing. If the bears would've pulled it out, which on a drive by drive basis, the bears ended up still playing better than the Falcons.
Those were good bets. Yeah. And that's why when you wanna go back and reverse engineer why you did what you did, drive quality gives us a really good sense of how we wanna grade our live bets. And this says even our losses were good decisions.
Yeah. So
love it. I'm looking at the Raiders too. Who
did win? Yeah. Raider 25 Broncos 19.
Yeah. And just like your jet Patriot Patriots under seven three wasn't even close. Also Eagles.
Eagles, I was about to say, I was about to say the Eagles. Another interesting discrepancy in the time weighted average versus Earn points where we have it as, 72% of the game that the culture leading. But like the Eagles were still by far the better team.
And people are really selling the Eagles. I just love like the total short term vision, just like totally captured by the moment where for nine weeks everyone was saying, oh, the Eagles are, the top team in the nfc, they're like maybe a step below the bills and chiefs, but they're in their own tier.
And now all of a sudden it's no Niners and Cowboys, cowboys won by 40. It's have we totally lost sight of the big picture here? Are we just getting ignore to the nine weeks? Because like they put in a couple sinkers as if teams don't put in stinkers all the time as if we didn't talk about that this match could actually be particularly tricky.
Short term results are noisy. Especially when 17, 16 was the final score and like probably doesn't actually reflect the fundamentals behind it. And I think Drive quality does a great job reminding us and putting us in a place in our long term perspectives.
Yeah. Eagles 24 Colts 17. Decisively winning, covering the minus six and a half. So not only should they not have just barely squeaked out a win, some people think oh, they shouldn't have even won that game. They actually should have won the game and covered the game.
And yeah, when we go back to our preseason previews, we know that it's not a straight line up for the good teams. It's not a straight line down for the bad teams. There's gonna be choppiness, there's gonna be false head fake trends that you see over the course of the season. But I think we've certainly seen enough from the Eagles to say, That
they're a good team. They're a top five team. The caveat there is the Eagles Run defense has looked Yeah. Susceptible Yeah. The last couple weeks starting with that Texans game. Yep. But again, teams are gonna go through peaks and valleys Yeah. Over the course of the season.
That's right. And I think that's a good point. It's actually something I just talked about on the PF forecast about the game script is out for out BT Eagles which just adds to the handicap.
Let's go to our week 12 consensus industry analyst market power rankings. Looking at the power rankings from ESPN FF 5 38 Football Outsiders and in Predict equal weighting those power rankings and giving us a general sense of how the market is evaluating these teams. So we look at the top five chiefs.
Number one, bills number two, cowboys up two spots to number three, Eagles down a spot to four ravens down a spot to five, and then drown out the top 10. You have Niners, Bengals, bucks, dolphins, and the Titans sneaking in to the top 10 and the Vikings falling out of the top 10 down two spots to number 11.
Anything stick out to you here Truda
From the top 10? No. I think it maybe just reinforced the point about the equals. That even though the steam is certainly pushing down the Eagles, I think just a bunch of the models that we like have here and a bunch of these media companies have kinda suggested the Eagles are probably still rightfully in the top five.
The Bengals also I think a team that's really getting pushed down and our drive quality certainly has them as one of the best teams in the nfl. And I think this power ranking is right. The only thing I'll you're looking at the top 10 and it's pretty weak.
You can poke holes into basically all these teams. Yeah.
And when we look at the standard deviation, so essentially looking at how much disagreement is there across industry analysts, the higher the number, the more disagreement, the lower the number, the more agreement.
And we can see there's generally agreement of the top five, top six teams. There's general agreement over the bottom three teams, and then in between there's a bunch of high numbers, fours, five, six, sevens, eights. So that means on average industry analysts disagree, where that team should be ranked by eight spots.
So massive deviation there. We can look at the usual suspects. Some of the largest industry analyst market disagreements on Jags on average eight spots. Seahawks still six spots, Viking six spots.
This is something that we've talked on maybe a few streams now is, disappointed by the fact that we bet the Cardinals so much this year. Not very often live betting.
Sometimes we've taken advantage of them starting off slow and playing the trend of the game pretty well. But from a pre-game betting perspective, just being way too optimistic on the Cardinals this season, and in fact defying our own drive quality model. Drive. Quality says Cardinal's, one of the worst teams in the nfl. And basically we're saying, no it's missing something. It doesn't understand. Deandre Hopkins' back again, even the game that they won versus the Saints Dry quality said they still lost Yep.
Two pick six s. I was thinking of the same thing even before you just said all of that. But it's pretty revealing. And I think a good reminder but also at the same time it does, I do that we're not just products of drive quality, yeah. Where it's it's not as if we're just gonna plug in, oh, this is what our number, our numbers say, and that's it. It is important to always dive into the not just the context. I think that's a bad cliche, but understand what's behind that number and sourcing the information and seeing is it possibly missing something?
What can we add? I think that's an important reminder.
Yeah. If the model was so smart, we would just be printing money. Yeah. Yeah. And that's always gonna be the case. You're gonna have to always add the human element, the wisdom, experience, judgment of us as handicaps, as live betters traders.
But there is a difference between fading something that it hates over and over again.
It's like you'd think we'd at least learn our lesson, it's which we
actually did this week. Because I think even you said it seems like it's time to get the cardinals. Like eight points is too much drive quality tells don't do it.
Yeah. And finally
Wait, we can't do it. Yeah. To be fair, I think that was pricing in Tyler and Hollywood Brown, but Yes. Yes. I think that was certainly the calculus.
So some of the biggest weekly changes, we look at the Rams down six spots, giants down.
Five spots. So Ram's now down to 24. It's actually finally catching up to drive quality. We've been ahead of this trending them all season. I don't think we've ever bought the Rams all year. In fact, we've made a lot of money being on the other side of those matchups. Yeah. Drive quality ranked 26th.
PF had a market high still holding on at 18th. This is something we've talked about a lot every week. Pf seems to be always the market high in the Rams. It's oh, there's priors around Matt Stafford, but those priors are clearly wrong cause even when he is playing, he is not good. Yeah.
And now he's out. But Giants to 26 those are the, were the two biggest downgrades of the week. And then a flurry of twos and ones usual suspects, Vikings, jets, Broncos.
And Chargers downgrade one spot, which actually that's when we didn't call out on our drive quality, which was the Chargers beating the chiefs. Yeah. So Chargers 33 to the Chiefs 31. And when you think about it, this makes sense. Like the Chargers were winning the game and the Chiefs had last kind of classic Patrick Mahomes drive.
Yep. But I feel like that's already been forgotten. In fact, even after the game, most people just ripe with all the criticisms about all the things that the Chargers did wrong, and like they got smoked. In that game. Yeah. They played very competitively. In fact, could have won the game. No problem.
Yep. In fact, we're winning the game for most of it. In fact, we were texting a little bit about, again, this was another opportunity to buy chiefs on the dip. They crossed through the mag line, went into underdog territory. I know I bought 'em at plus one 30. Yeah. I don't know if it got deeper than that.
Maybe it did.
I got a 1 95. Oh wow. Yeah, that's
where I waited. And but I was texting. I'm like, is this like an auto bet by. It's it's wait one drive still, cuz it was like coming outta halftime and I think we're getting the ball first. That was a very nice cherry on top. clothes to just waterfall process And taking, taking
advantage of something we've said all year, which is not trusting the Chargers late games.
Yeah.
It's a two sided live trade. Yep.
This is the other thing that makes live betting so profitable, is, when we are trying to build some SGPs for this Chief's Chargers game, one of the things we really liked was leaning into Tony props. Yeah. And if the dude doesn't even play and when he does play, then he gets hurt.
And you can't forecast that. That is a gamble in itself. It's how much field time is he gonna see and when's he gonna see it? And then obviously potentially getting hurt. Yep. And it's like when you're in the game, when you're watching the game, you're trying to take advantage of price dislocations and the market feeding into whatever is happening in the moment.
And you as a trader can see past that forecast and buy the twists and turns and then take advantage of that. That is just one, it's more fun. And it's like there's always an element of gambling. It's uncertainty, volatility, of course. But it's just gambling on gambling, the whole pregame betting concept.
And I think it's very clear that we are good at what we do. I definitely consider us sharps. And yet nonetheless, on a pre-game perspective in cir, we're getting our phases ripped off this season. Yep. It's basically cuz we just can't forecast like what the coach is gonna do and how the game's gonna play out before even seeing anything
that started to happen.
Yeah. I've been like playing a pick league with like my buddies for years. I've always been pretty bad. , I shouldn't say pretty. I'm like at 51% usually. You gotta know your skill set. That's it's a, I think that's actually an important broad point about betting, which is I'm just like, be the things that everyone else is betting.
Don't just spreads in totals. Cuz that's the thing that has the most content, for the most information like, You have a certain process and like you have to lean into the way you think and how that eventually materializes and bes. Like I know, I'm pretty good at these longshot odds.
That's where I succeed and that's how I'm positioning myself weekend and week out. And in the live betting, of course I don't, I haven't bet one spreader total the entire year. Not one
pre-game. Pre-game. Yeah. Yeah. And it's not even to say that we, cause again, we're definitely gonna do CIR again next year because it's an attractive contest.
The odds are in your favor, especially when there's a huge overlay. Yeah. But the volatility, the variability of what your performance is gonna be relative to your skill set is just so much wider in tho in pre-game betting. And that's why you can see people who are good at this, people who dedicate their life to this is their day job.
Have bad seasons go 44%. Like to me, like how can that even be possible? Yeah. And it's because the skill is just so a smaller portion of the overall calculus of predicting performance and pre-game betting and live bedding skill is a much bigger proportion of the overall calculus of actually predicting, performance.
And that's why, I just can't wait for betting to continue to get more and more popular markets continue to get more and more liquid, more and more options come available to us. Again, we're not always gonna have weekends, like we had this past weekend. In fact, the last, the previous two ones were like, they're like, okay
Maybe it was like two weeks ago, it was like, for me, I know it was like basically flat spent all day trading and basically didn't make anything. So not every weekend's gonna be good, but if we keep having really good weekends, that is when we're gonna have less options at our disposal, right over time, because books are gonna basically take the keys away from us. I hope not.
Hope not.
All right, let's go into Week 12. Start off with the games that are kicking off at about 14 hours from now. Bills, lions, and actually, I'm gonna have to be up early tomorrow because tomorrow's Thanksgiving.
Normally going into the Sunday or the kickoff, like I'm waking up five minutes before. I'm like drinking a coffee the very first time. Like Juda, what happened so far? Like how did the lines change? Who's playing? Where are they playing? But tomorrow here, this is Sixth Ave behind me and so we're having people over tomorrow.
Macy's Day Parade. It's gonna be happening right behind me. Oh.
We need parades every Sunday. Yeah, I know. Get you up in the morning.
Alright. bill's minus nine and a half in Detroit. Obviously. Lion's Classic Thanksgiving team do it every single year. It's usually versus the bear. In fact, that's when I actually do enjoy the Thanksgiving games. I always enjoy them, but I do have a special interest cuz it's usually lions bears be my team.
And no bears this Thanksgiving. This was at 10, 10 and a half now, creeping through that 10. The lions been playing better as late lions were not upgraded by the market on a week to week basis. Still 29th. In fact p has 'em at 20th Football. Outsiders had a market high at 16th, but the lions are getting healthier.
Is Jameson Williams finally gonna make appearance? Maybe not this week. They may next week. Yeah. I know DJ Char is supposed to be coming back.
Yeah he played last week. He was east into snaps. Oh, and they have weapons at their disposal. Yeah. And I think pretty quietly the Bill's defense has really struggled especially on past defense.
And I don't know if if Greg Russo will be back for this one. But they in the past couple of weeks have a bottom five pass defense by epa. And we know the lions can score on offense. With that said, the defense is so horrendous. They're gonna be missing.
Jeff Acuta, who's been the one corner who's been serviceable. Armani or oer is the single worst cornerback by a metric. I've built successful coverage over expected along with arg. And Armani or oer is the single worst cornerback. He's gonna be forced back into starting duty.
Past events is dreadful. And I think that's the bills are gonna take advantage of that. I think they'll be able to score out will, they'll be able to pass the ball. The lions rushed events is nothing special. They're getting James Koch involved. They're getting Devon Singletary involved.
I don't really see how they're gonna slow em down. I would be pretty surprised if the Bill's completely shut down Alliance and it's a, 48,
3 type game. Yeah. And what we have the total at here, 54 and a half. So definitely pretty elevated. The highest total on the board, actually for the week by far.
In fact, no other fifties even on the board. Yeah, I don't feel strongly about it from a pre-game perspective.
Yeah. Got one bit. I like an sgp. This is what I'm leaning into pre-games cuz it's only available pre-game.
Just gimme a bills minus six and a half. Josh Allen to go over 2 74, which a little less than his passing prop. We can get that at plus 1 95.
I think they're gonna be a little to pass ball at ease against the lions. I think like Gabe Davis will hit some explosive plays.
I'm looking for two things, which is the bills I think are gonna win solidly, but I don't think it's gonna get out of hand. And like they're gonna do a pass football, the bill's throw, they've got the highest, maybe it's the second highest pass rate over expected.
Second highest pass rate over expected 9%. We know they like to throw, they'll have their way. I think Josh Allen will get to his passing prop at least. 2 75 is nothing against this defense. And I think it builds in a solid cushion like getting on the other side of seven or plus 1 95.
It's not even Yeah. It's a pretty juicy hunt.
Yeah, too, there's been some reading into the Lions defensive or asurs or at least not being completely miserable.
Yeah. And we can see that, they still actually didn't play well. As you were talking about from a coverage perspective, we're still one of the worst last week. It's just, the Giants receivers are. Good and banged up. Yeah, no, I like the angle. I like, I wish I would've seen from our market consensus power rankings, the lines being upgraded. Yeah. Materially we haven't seen that, so that makes me a little bit cautious. Obviously we're seeing a little bit of buying into lions getting through 10.
And actually I misspoke earlier too.
ESPN has the lions ranked 28th football outsides still market high at 16th, but in fact, drive quality is the one has the lions ranked 20th. So we're still tilted towards overweight lions relative to the broader market. Broader market consensus ranking is 29th.
Yeah Greg Russo is out which I think certainly helps.
He's been a pretty good pass rusher this year.
I definitely wanna dive more into this one when it comes to sgp, especially given, know, this is a higher total game, those are the types of games you obviously wanna lean in.
Yeah. I wrote one up for bff.
The next Thanksgiving game, giants at the Cowboys Giants totally banged up, plus 10 reduced juice lean to 10 and a half over under 45 and a half.
This is one of those games where there's one narrative. Everyone knows the narrative, and so for that reason, like everyone's betting for the exact same reason that I can't bet the cowboys here. Certainly not from a pregame perspective.
I think what you're saying is true to an extent if, especially if Andrew Thomas doesn't play, if you, your entire offensive line is weak links, right?
They've just ruled up four starting offensive linemen against the number one past defense. It could get totally outta hand to like Tampa Bay, Kansas City Super Bowl levels, except at the quarterbacks Daniel Jones and not Patrick Holmes.
I think it's not even the sacks. It's like Giants run game's not gonna get going if they're starting back up offensive alignment the entire way.
And again, I just feel like why isn't this moving out way higher? Yeah, I
agree.
Cause again, what you just said that, that's what I'm saying is that is why you couldn't bet the giants.
It's like the whole offensive line is gone. Yeah. Oh, the wide receivers are banged up. Yeah. They already have difficulty scoring points to begin with. The cowboys are red hot. They just looked like a Super Bowl team versus the Vikings. Yeah. They're getting upgraded by the market. They're still a top five team.
No, it, oh, it's only
10. Yeah. But like why wouldn't you wait and see just take a couple drives and see how the fast
protection's all together. also too, we've seen this year as well where it's wow, I guess it was that simple. Exactly. I guess that was because all it needed was a simple handicap
Speaking of a simple handicap, we really jumped on the Daniel Jones passing props last week. Yeah. And his passing prop is still 200 yards right now. It's still priced in for the game script of Giants playing in a cause he's using his season long averages.
That's how these prop markets are derived. What happens if he falls into a past game script? Like it's not as if the giants are gonna you're gonna have to be Falcons it yeah. Go down and the passing prop is still 200 and he's throwing the ball 46 times. He's going throw more than 200 yards.
And Darius Slayton is going to be the recipient of those targets, assuming he stays healthy.
In fact, I actually wouldn't mind waiting on it and doing it live.
That's
what I'm saying. Yeah, for sure. You want the advantage of the live game script to know that the passes are coming.
And if you wanna take advantage of the cowboy's defense, take the sack props live when you know that Jones is actually gonna be dropping back to pass. If it's in a game script where that's happening, go buy the Michael Parsons live. Go buy Dorance
Armstrong live.
Daniel Jones passing yards. Yeah. 1 95. Yeah.
It's the same thing as it was last week. And it's gonna be slow to adjust, but if the game is, 10 nothing early in the second quarter and the Cowboys have the ball. Go bet daniel Jones over passings props.
We bet a lot of props this year. Especially when you're lining up sgs, like you gotta throw a prop related bet in there to really juice it up. Yeah. But that's not something I would say that we've necessarily done a ton of research or have planned tools to really take advantage of that. But to your point, like the fact that how the market is pricing, it is basically just a peer. Arithmetic.
A
median. Yeah. Yeah. To give a little sneak peek, something I was working on today. Looking at tendencies of quarterbacks in the situation, like team is down, right? Who does quarterback go to on, third downs? Who are they going to team facing the blitz facing pressure, et cetera. And seeing based on this matchup, can we get some prop edges based on quarterback tendencies and who they're gonna look to at receiver.
Yeah. Cause in theory there should be there, right? You're relying on Justin Jefferson on third down. That's a thing that's real. It exists. Yeah. So that's something I've been looking at do and hopefully can start to leverage over the last couple of weeks of the
season.
I think like another huge element too, of a huge advantage of live betting is. Again, we talk about cause you need to wait and see what the team's potential game scripts is gonna be. And another even more granular example of that is Daniel Jones rushing. And it's if you see him do a couple of those bootlegs and they're working, then it's just wow.
Then just hit the over on Daniel Jones rushing cuz they're gonna be leaning into that. And it's like those types of things. Like you don't know if that's part of the game plan. In fact a couple weeks ago I loved Zach Wilson rushing yards verse, I can't remember who it was. Patriots.
Oh yeah. Cause it was like right after like Lamar Jackson did it. Justin Fields did it. And my pregame prognostication was that the jets would try to exploit that potential weakness of the Patriots and. They didn't and didn't even try. So I had to bet the fact that was even part of their game plan.
And then even if it was part of their game plan, that he would actually then still be able to execute and actually get over the yards. It's a compounded bet. Worst possible. And the odds aren't compounded. It wasn't like plus 400, . And that's why you also made a great call when we were live betting.
That was, I went to go look at his live over under rushing. It was like two and a half yards, which is basically just is he gonna rush even once? Yeah. And it was like, at this point in time you're like, no don't take it. Cause it's not part of the game script. Yeah. Like you thought it was gonna be a part of this game script.
It wasn't part of the game script. So it's over like the bet is dead. Like now if he gets it, it's just like random luckiness. But the handicap, it's what's. And so no, don't try to now force that issue. And it's some of the great elements of live betting.
Yeah. The common thread and theme is just live betting allows for more information and that's crucial as a better,
yeah.
And also, and especially rewards those who are adept at deciphering kinda what's going on in the game. And have the Moxi patients discipline in order to be able to forecast. Of course. Yeah. All right. Patriots, Vikings. Patriots plus three juiced over under 42 Vikings, Shaws out.
I think their quarterbacks are now banged up. Pretty materially edging towards that two and a half, but still hanging at three on draft Kings. . I think I don't, yeah, I don't know. I don't
know. Yeah.
That's my reaction. I wanna say Patriots, but then I feel like, eh, my kind of like late. Obviously everyone hates the Vikings now, but actually the thing is when we look, yeah, we look at the market power rankings, they weren't really downgraded that much.
I'm certainly not playing with the pregame. The one angle I'd have is Minnesota has been really good scripted. This was true last week by the way. They failed I think a fourth down deep in territory and like the field in their opening drive.
But they were moving the ball well on their first two drives. I think like at the time, the game under, if the total kind of gets the 45, 46, 47 away from 42 that's only the only angle I'll be thinking to play. But it's it's just like an ugly game and you don't know what the patriot you don't know what you're gonna get with the Patriots.
You don't know what you're gonna get with Mack Jones. Yeah. I don't know. I don't know.
Yeah. And this one's late in the day. Could put everyone to bed. . Yeah. This is the closure of the evening after everyone's already stuffed. Unless you wanted to play like an unders sgp, which are never fun.
Yeah. , I played, the sgp I played was TJ Hawkinson. , think it was like 60 yards and a touchdown. Just playing the matchups there and I'm not necessarily buying into the like, bill be check takes away your number one option, blah, blah, blah. Like pages have been really good at receivers.
Kurt Cousins has given DJ Hawkinson nine to 10 and nine targets. They allow a bunch of touchdowns in Red zone. I think that's structural. And Likeand Stevenson has very quietly taken over the. Role of lead back and like we're all looking for something to play on Thanksgiving night. And I took his a touchdown and his receiving yards.
He's been really involved in the passing game, six to eight targets each week. Like independent of game script which I think suggested like they're going to be giving him the ball. Got some really juicy odds is like plus four, it's like 40 to one. That's my play.
Finding the slim Pickens that there is to try to take advantage of something.
Now that I think about it too, is again, like under sgs just aren't gonna be as attractive just from a mathematical perspective, cuz you can't be like, Unless you're like, you'd have to say oh, this person's gonna literally do nothing.
Yeah. It's also like it's mathematical meaning there theoretically infinite number of you can't go past zero . Yeah, exactly. There infinite number of yards you can get on the upswing. There are defined numbers of yours.
I also think like unders would theoretically be attractive. It's also like they're not really available. Like you can push out lines on to eight 80 on a receiver to get a hundred yards. That doesn't exist on the downswing. At least not yet.
Yeah.
All right, so let's get into the main slate. And we got Texans, dolphins, Texans plus 13 and a half with Kyle Allen at Quarterback. 47 is the total. My gosh, I don't wanna I like how a, first of all.
I have really no idea if the Texans are trying to win.
And also the team, the Dolphins are a team that can just take your head off.
Yeah. They can score 40 easily. Not taking you side of this game. Yeah,
I would take dolphins. Like again, like when we were live betting verse Commies, I was potentially interested in taking Texans plus two touchdowns versus a team like the coms, who again, aren't gonna take your head off.
Yeah. But the dolphins have that capacity. This is danger territory if it doesn't go right.
I agree
with that. Total does seem high though. 47. Unless the Dolphins are gonna score all of them. And do they really wanna show a lot of playbook versus the Texans has two touchdown favorites, like two has already been injury.
Prones got himself in that positions. They don't wanna have to deal with that again. Get in, get out, watch Showboat.
Yeah. The Texans, at least their strength has been their secondary so far which in theory could stop the dolphins. I just don't see that happening. Hill and Waddle are too good.
They're too dynamic. It's not something I'm really interested in betting at all.
Dolphins minus 23 and a half, plus 2 89. You could just take another three points, 26 and a half, 4 0 9. If this is gonna be a game that's 36 to 10.
Which 36 to 10 would put you right at that expected total.
As well, right? Oh, yeah. And our injury analyst chiming in here. Thank you, Dan.
Yeah, so stinging out for the Texans. Or at least questionable and dealing with hamstring.
If you're dealing with hamstring, those things linger. You're not gonna be a hundred percent no matter what. Yeah. So yeah, just another reason not to even really flirt with Texans and points
bears at Jets, bears plus six reduced juice. Lean to six and a half over under 38 and a half. Bunch of questions around Justin Fields's probably not gonna play.
I think that's what the slide's telling us gonna be simian, unless his upgrade is Mike White, which that's be ridiculous
in my opinion. Yeah. Backing a Jets team with Mike White I, I guess in
theory, I don't think Mike White is necessarily a downgrade person,
an upgrade.
He's not a downgrade over Zach Wilson and he, look, here's the thing. I trust the Jets kind of infrastructure as we've talked about all year, basically, meaning I like the offensive coordinator. They have good weapons. I think Mike White can do a good job executing a very easy game plan that's handed to you.
I don't know if you can do it over the long term, and I think defenses might adjust, but in the short term, you can definitely put together patches, especially against a really dreadful bears defense. But again, I wanna. Just take the information, see how Mike White looks. Does he look comfortable?
Is he making through, like he put together a good, obviously that great game against the Bengals and had a good quarter against the Colts before he got hurt. But there's a reason he wasn't starting and there's a reason he didn't start the first couple games of this season.
So there's probably something there. That's, that, that's again down with a good point about the check downs. And it's something again to look at for prop stuff, just like quarterback tendencies. But it's a low total. It just seems like an ugly one.
Yeah. I think the under here is also very attractive. Seems actually quite high at 38 and a half. I don't understand the Bear's Defense is bad. And Trevor Simian is capable in spots. And again, he's not like dead meat.
He's got he can move around.
dead meat in this offense. I especially,
I Even Justin Fields was dead meat for many weeks.
Yeah. But then they finally tailored the offense to Justin Fields and it's just like they don't have, especially if they're using any of the same playbook that they've designed for Fields, Simian can't do that.
Yeah in fact, probably even lean into an alt under.
And I think this is interesting. If you like the jets to cover six, unless you think the, like the run game is gonna get going maybe, but you probably think my white's gonna play at least add expectation.
So add that to add his passive prop. It doesn't necessarily have to be an over but get to 75%. Cause he's gonna, he has to play at a certain level if the Jets are gonna cover.
Yeah. And this is such a great game for him to play his first game. Yeah. I could already see all the tweets about, oh, they should have went to Mike.
We sooner, like we knew it from last season. He was good. Why did they start? And it's playing the bears past defense.
I'm just so disappointed in the Jets bailing on, again, Zach Wells has not looked good. He's made a lot of bone head.
Stuff, decisions. He doesn't look like he's necessarily growing. Yeah. But again, he missed a lot of games last season. He missed games this season. So he's still really in his first full year. Not even yet. Yeah. You got to be patient. Yeah. Especially you're getting a little bit of a vulnerable schedule here.
Like I think like there, there's two short term focus. Cause oh, we're six and three, whatever they are. And we have a chance to win the division or to go to the playoffs at least. And we want to capitalize now on that and sacrifice a much longer term decision and commitment.
Cause they're not winning the Super Bowl this year. No. Take the long term perspective. It would really be a disaster I think if they went to Flaco. I guess in theory, if like Mike White's still young, but it doesn't make sense they said that
Zach Wilson is the third quarterback
right now.
Yeah. It's like they're trying to like almost teach him a lesson. I think it's a weird, it's a weird dynamic.
Yeah. like Mike White props, especially in this game. It's at home too. So favorable environment, no adversity there, no travel. Very good setup. Yeah. Yeah. And also again, Justin Fields isn't even on the other side, so you could potentially get into some really favorable game scripts for the
offense.
Ravens at the Jags Ravens minus three and a half over under 43 and a half. The Jaguars are back. The Jaguars had a buy. We couldn't bet them even if we wanted to. Not what? I like the Jags. . You like the Jags? I like the
Jags. Yeah. You always like selling the Ravens.
The line I think did move a little bit cuz Lamar Jackson missed practice today with the hip injury. They say he's gonna play hip injury is concerning. But yeah, I'm a little bit cautious about any of the Jags only because I've
Don't think you need to say why. I just like that I'm missing here. But the Ravens offense has looked bad. We've said it all along, especially with at Rashad Bateman that this team's really lacking in weapons. But DeMarcus Robinson looked really good and his statistical profile actually also surprisingly looked very good.
He's generating a ton of separation which shouldn't theory be sticky over time. But yeah, our numbers are always gonna show value on the Jaguars.
Yeah, we got 'em Still ranked drive quality has Jaguars ninth ranked ninth. Yeah. Market has jags ranked 21st. So huge
deviation there and huge standard deviations also.
And again our Jaguar quality does not factor into that standard deviation, but it does express the same sentiment.
Yeah. And to my dismay, the Ravens are ranked high by the market ranked fifth, but also by drive quality. Has the Ravens ranked a little bit lower seventh? In fact, we are a market low tied with 5 38 at seventh football, outsiders at a market high, having the Ravens as the top three team.
There's just been a lot of talk about trying to buy the Ravens, having a weaker schedule going into the end of the season. They've blown a couple games this year.
Yeah. In every single game, in fact had double digit lead. And so they could be undefeated. Yeah. But I think if they were undefeated, people would be saying like, wow, this is like the worst undefeated team of all time. Yeah.
And they've, yeah, it's an interesting thing, but they've run the fewest plays from behind.
Of any team. Yeah. Or certainly with the win probability less than 50% which is interesting live and angle, by the way, so much to the Eagles, which is we don't really know how they're gonna, they're gonna play coming from behind, especially for a team that is lacking and receiving. Yes. And the Jaguars have been good scripted.
.
And that's the other thing. I Again, we, that was another game that again, we had a very successful, I bet Weekend Ravens was not a part of that, and Ravens was a price that was dripping lower all Sunday. And in fact, there was only a flirtation with potentially taking the Panthers.
And what I've noticed is one of the reasons why I think you can have a good pulse on particular teams is because, we are capturing the moment of the heartbeat of these teams over the course of the Sunday. And I think there is signal in that when you go back and say, all right, Panthers.
Ravens. Ravens at home. I'm now getting eight points of value on the Ravens into the fourth quarter and I still don't want to take 'em. Yeah. And yet they're a top five team. Yep. Look, because you don't trust 'em, it's wow, man, they look bad and man, when they look bad, not look good.
Yeah. You were talking off the panther saying like they can score.
They can score, which I think goes to hammer the point that it, like the ceiling still exists in the sense that like they can play up to the top five. They're just some reason they don't have it.
Yeah. And I was forecasting that one, like Panthers played really, the Rams really tough for three fourths of that game. And then the Rams kind of extended it in the very end ended up covering. And it's like I, I could have just easily have seen that, have they still ended up winning by 10. And I think they had the ball like in the final drive.
There was numerous times in the end too, where they easily could have covered that 13 and a half. But again, because they were playing so lousy, even on short fields, they couldn't convert any points. Yeah. Yeah, I think there's so many is the Ravens just don't even look good to me. Don't even look good.
So I guess I'm taking the Jags plus three and a half. The one thing is I do know the Ravens are the type of team also that can like, look like crap and then the next game then look amazing. Yeah. Explode. And the Jags are definitely a team to set 'em up to do something like that. Yeah. I probably actually won't be betting Jags plus three and a half cuz the Jags are the type of team we've already learned.
Like you have to lie. Bet this team. Yep. And that's it.
Yep. Bengals, Titans, Bengals minus two and a half on the road over under 42 and a half. Very low for a Bengals game. Bengals. Steelers is also this low and we didn't take advantage of it, but it was one of the things we were talking about as we were going into those late games.
Like why is this like total, so low? It's like the weather shitty or. We should have taken advantage of that. Cause I guarantee you it was buying into this allure of Steelers defense at home still. Yeah. Being elite in the sense of being able to shut down the Bengals offense. Yeah, I bet so much.
I'm surprised actually. You especially weren't screaming. I be so much
Bengals like five and a half and I just kept on betting on Bengals that I It's okay.
Yeah, that was another big one about forage.
I had worries about the Steeler's offense. Yeah, I really liked the Bengals on the spot.
And
chase could potentially
be Mac chase's back I think. Yeah. A according to Joeo also chase's back. Yeah, I really like the Bengals here. I posted a graph today about have teams fair and expected past situations. Essentially like when the defense knows you're passing, how good are the offenses?
And like you pass homes absolutely broke the scale of it, not the point. Joe Burrow's been amazing. He's playing, he's at a 0.3 EPA and a 50 something percent success rate. When the defense knows that you're passing. That's an MVP type season. And I think that's key for this matchup. Number one, unlike last year, which a main concern was like, are the Bengals even gonna pass the ball? Cause hey, we're running the ball a ton early in the season. Switch to passing like weeks 14. They wanted a Superbowl run afterwards. But also the Titans have the, probably the best run defense in the league right now.
First in rush, pa like fourth in yards per carry. And the Bengals are totally fine as they did last week, abandoning the run. And they're gonna pass. And it doesn't matter, even if the defense knows the pass is coming, they're not gonna be able to stop it. The Titans defense does not in the slightest scare me especially with Joe Burrow having all his weapons back.
And Titans are dealing with their own injuries as well.
They are. And like the interior pressure narrative I don't think makes sense on two fronts. Number one, like Ted Car and Alex Kappa on the interior have actually been pretty good in pass blocking. And again, this is something we talked about early in the season.
It's something we talked about in the off season preview. Like a team like the Bengals who had such turnover on the offensive line, it's going to take time to build chemistry. Like when you don't have that continuity factor, you need weeks to build up. And I think there, like offense line's gonna get better as the game goes along.
I think it's almost the perfect matchup for the Bengals. The Titans do not have the wide receivers, I don't think, to take advantage of the areas where the bangals are weak. And like our draft quality's been saying, the Bengals are superior team on offense. Like we have the Bangals, the fourth best unit, the Titans is the 21st.
I just outlined why I think like the defensive rating, which is propping out the Titans is probably misplaced. Also, like the Titans play two good teams all season. I feel like the Bills and chiefs and everyone else has been a disaster. They haven't been tested at all. I really like the Bangals.
Yeah. Especially under the field goal, which I'm actually surprised that it's still hanging around there. It's, it's juiced. We talked about the marketing census power rankings. This is the titans. Now sneaking into the top 10.
I think that's the first time we've seen that all season 5 38 has him fourth. Yep. Pff has 'em. Seventh Pff has been hotter on. Yeah. The Titans this season been ahead of the curve there. Football Outsiders has 'em as 12. Again, even Drive Quality still has em 13th. We've been hot on Bengals for sure.
Drive Quality has Bengals, third. Absolutely. And we're a market high
there. Yeah. And you can be sure I'll be running back the same that I made last week of Bengals Alt and Joe Burro passing. Yeah. Just like the Bengals are going to win through the passing game like Joe Draw makes draw Xs out, like who cares?
They're gonna pass the ball and they're fine to do it. And I think that's yeah.
On filled in perfectly fine. Doing those sgs. And just throwing in one kind of high conviction prop, especially with a relatively short money line. Yeah. Like this. Yeah. I did the Bengals and Joe Burrow over 2 99 that pushed it out to plus 400. Yeah.
I got plus 800 on a bet that I'm gonna hedged off it, but only didn't cash on the last second touchdown plus 800. That's huge odds. And again, I wanna emphasize, actually, this is important. It's not just like throwing in a high conviction prop.
It's understanding and sourcing. If the BES are going to do X, what has to also happen, which is yeah, the Bengals are winning not because of their run game. If they're going to win, if they're going to extend, it's going to, because Joe Bar was passing. Yes. It's like the 10% chance of a weird thing happening in the run game or like turnovers doing the job.
You get like a turn touchdown, fine, I'll lose those bets. But like knowing and understanding the team tendencies and how build the story of how the bango went by nine and a half. Yeah. It's going to happen through joeo and the market and the sportsperson are not calculating that.
It's like it's a simple odds calculation plus one 30 and minus one 10 spits out a certain result. And I don't think the correlations are perfect there.
Yeah. That's one of the best advantages of those SGPs is trying to put together correlated plays that all will come together if a particular narrative plays out.
And if the narrative doesn't, again, if the narrative plays out, then it's jackpot scenario. Yeah. If the scenario doesn't play out, you lose a unit. Big deal. Exactly.
Just like any other gods again and again, AME risk
Falcons. Plus four and a half at Washington over under 41. Another. Pretty low total. Even low for 2022.
I have one word. Yeah. Yuck.
Yeah. I would have to probably take the falcons here. Yeah. Four and
a half. Again, it's going back to what I said earlier about the commander's love, I think it's misplaced. I think we should definitely consider them for circa but I don't want to put my money on the fountains.
No thanks.
Broncos minus one and a half at the Panthers led by Sam Darn Uhoh.
Oh.
Over your bet.
Again, I posted today that I bet Thes to win cash , I bet the Panthers to win the end of Sea South plus 4,000. They're three, first of all, again, 4,000 is mis pressed. They're three in one in the division. And they have the tiebreaker with the box, and they still have to play the box and they still have to play the saints towards the end of the season.
The thing is again, it's not like I'm trying to make a case that Sam Dar is like a secretly good quarterback, but we don't know that he's necessarily going to be terrible in a six
games, you can't get much worse than what Baker Mayfield's been.
That's the other thing is, yeah. And again, the defense has just been playing so gritty.
Yeah. At plus 4,000, especially in a division that is weak and that we're pretty much down on the box, the Falcons have their own issues. Drive Quality loves the Saints has 'em still almost as a borderline top 10 team.
But again they all have their own issues. And basically I'm just rolling the dice here is who knows? Maybe Sam Donald does like some sort of Geno Smith stuff. It's not like they're totally devoid of talent either. They have a crappy offensive line. They have crappy coaching, crappy play calling, but.
There's weapons here. Yeah. Anyway, I like the Panthers in this game. The Broncos
are terrible.
And also, unlike what we were talking about, Mike White having a favorable first game matchup. This is not a favorable matchup for Sam Arnold to come in for the first game.
Going against the Broncos defense.
Here's my play. I'm probably gonna like a Brian Burton sack prop. This also could be a spot of one of those really deep alternate unders, but there's not so much room to go at a total of 36.
You it's hundred 26. Yeah, but
I
Hey, we've seen some deep on
seen, we've seen some 10 Sixers and this is a spot for a ten six er or a 1710
under 27 and a half plus 2 75. Yeah, I like under the 25 and a half plus 3 89 and making it a trade. Either waiting for a drive, seeing if there's an early score, and then taking advantage of a slightly inflated. Total and then buying the all under, get a little bit, ex a few extra points, but otherwise then trying to get out of the position with a juicy budget at your disposal
and then get your yourself out of it.
Okay, Bucks.
Browns, bucks on the road, minus three and a half reduced juice at Draft Kings over under 43.
Couple live angles I like here. I think this game comes down to the run defenses. In the rushing attacks. The buck finally got going on offense against the Seahawks basically by running at an average rate instead of an absolutely disastrous pace. Which I think has been part of product of Rashad White.
Or it could just be like we had one week. Anomalies happen all the time in the same way as the box run defense gave up like 200 drugs rushing to the Panthers. Like it happens in football, weird things happen. I expect the Browns to get out to a lead. They've been terrific on both ends. Scripted, yeah.
Yeah. Which leads into some interesting livening. If the bucks are rushing the ball, I can buy into the fact that like this offense will be, it's not gonna be the same as it was, but I think it'll be fine. It'll be average. I don't think Brady's the same quarterback, but he's not totally washed.
Then again, if the run and sorry. And the key point here is that the brands or rush defenses by far the worse than the nfl. Like their Rush EPA is double as bad as the 31st best team. But like the bucks can be shooting themselves on the foot end. It's not gonna matter anyway. If the bucks are running the ball well then I can get on board with backing them if they're down.
But if the Browns are like rushing and they've got their rushing attack going like they can extend. And like the passing game has been good, which has been really terrific. Our drive quality really likes the brands especially on the offensive side of the ball.
One of the things that I was leaning potentially towards the books on this as well was the Buck Secondary versus the Browns receivers, I think is a potential matchup edge. And we know that the Bucks have difficulty getting separation, I think according to the perfectly covered plays, like Bucks are pretty down there, but the grounds are also really bad at coverage on the other side.
Cause we know, you're talking about how it's an offense and defensive element. Yeah. But that it's trying to extract and do this reverse attribution analysis of how much is it offense, how much is it defense? And it's could be a little tricky. But I think the takeaway is that, yeah, the Bucks receivers don't get separation, but the Browns put you in a position to potentially get separation.
doesn't need that much separation.
It gets to my handicap here. And to answer your question, the bucks are 46% perfect coverage. Which is better in, it's been previous weeks. But a lot of that is a function of the buck themselves shooting themselves. Like they're gonna shoot themselves on the foot with bad offense.
And I don't think the match ups gonna matter. is of a give and take. But I think when, like you go more towards the extremes like the bucks, I think the matchups actually matter less.
I think this three and a half is gonna be very attractive to a lot of betters out there that want to fade the box.
Yeah. We wanna fade the box. Absolutely. But I don't think this is, yeah. I think this is. I think it's a live
so match up, driven. Let's see them. Let's see the match us play up. Let's get that extra information before we met.
Raiders plus three and a half on the road versus Seattle over under 47 and a half. Seattle coming off the little mini buy.
The offense is capable. I'm not really sure what the make of the Seahawks, I think their offense is good. Their defense was showing up for a four or five week stretch.
I think I want to fade that. I think the line's right. Seahawks is definitely the better team, but I don't really see any angle pulling me
one way or another. Yeah, I would say I probably lean Seahawks here. I think there's nothing that changed the broader macro betting perspective of how we evaluate the Raiders from last week's game.
It's more just a consequence of Broncos and how that game was playing out. We saw the Raiders be able to move the ball. They just weren't scoring points and the line blew out. And so we took advantage of it, but it wasn't even going into that game that we like, love the Raiders. Oh, let's look for opportunity to get the Raiders.
It just happened to be, that's what happened. And there was a market dislocation to take advantage of, but they're still super banged up and now they're coming off first a team that is still hot, got a little humbled overseas versus the bucks. But I think it's time to, to buy back on Seattle.
Chargers at Arizona plus three. I'm surprised this has not moved out farther. I'll bet the Chargers on the look ahead at minus two and a half and I'm like, man, my, I next look at this, it's probably gonna be like six and it's three. Yeah, I know Kyle, me coming back, but there's people talking about how Kyle Murray not coming back was an upgrade. Yeah. I don't know about that, but there was people saying that respected better saying
that.
Yeah. They, I think are wrong. can take I'm not, the authority doesn't doesn't mean much to me. I don't wanna bet on
either of these teams. I why? I actually, I liked what I saw from the Chargers versus the Chiefs Drive Quality. Had the Chargers beating the Chiefs when we were texting miss the game.
One of the reasons why I was looking to buy the Chiefs on the dip was it's oh, we were kinda. We bet the Chargers pre-game at the plus five and a half. Yeah. And it was based on the notion of having Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams goes out Keen and Allen looked banged up and didn't look like him like he was fully healthy.
But you said but Keenan Allen is still on the field. Yeah. And that is an element in the field more capable. And he showed he was capable. He made a huge catch down the field. Yes. And I saw other replays of him just being in there being a blocker again. Cause the dudes like six foot composed like five, nine dudes.
There's a huge element there. What's not to like about the Chargers from last week?
First off Mike Williams not gonna play. Yeah. But that's fine. I do. I hear that. And look, you're, I've, I'm the biggest charger stand there is. I love him. What's not to like is that the defense is awful.
Their swish chief, they held the chief to
17 points through three fourths of that game.
Yeah, that's cuz the chiefs were kicking field goals and punting you stopping them. I don't think it was a function of the the Chargers defense playing. Look, the,
of the market downgraded, the chargers,
the main concern for me is I think we're finally seeing a healthy Cardinals team.
Granted, I don't know if they have much to play for they're basically out of it, but we're finally gonna see like Carla Murray with Marquis Brown, Deandre Hopkins. Ron Delmore is a totally different story than Colt McCoy throw Deandre Hopkins.
Again, making an argument for the Cardinals. ,
I'm not bending the cardinals. I'm just saying if that's what's keeping me off it hey,
you could be totally right and obviously you make a good point. Like this is gonna be potentially the healthiest they've been. But again, Kyla Murray's actually not that healthy.
So I think he's
good. I think if he's practicing fully on Wednesday, I think that suggests that he's good again, interesting live angle to see if he's scrambling or not. It was the charger season last Sunday night. That was their shot at the division. This was, that was the game.
I'm not saying it's gonna be like a letdown spot next week. No, it's like this was the spot where they're going to produce. And I don't know. I see this as fairly priced at three and a half.
Again, like I totally hear your points and I'm sure at some point in time the Cardinals will cover
they cover for us against the the ramps.
Yes, that's true. That's true. But again, that was more so
That was a ramp South course.
Maybe I'm late here again, because the thing is again, I am not often making a case for the Chargers. That's true. And I'm just saying what what I saw first the Chiefs was something that I wanted to upgrade the chargers from what I saw there.
Yeah. And the, again, we see the market actually downgrading the Chargers
that game. No, that's fair.
And there's a lot of heat on Staley too.
I don't trust. I don't trust Steely.
That's why I don't like it.
Yeah. But at least there's bad coaching on the other side, too. True.
All right. Rams plus 15 and a half at kc. Probably not much to say about this. Bryce Perkins at Quarterback?
If it's John Walford I like I'll maybe move the line a bit with the Chiefs. There's not much to say though.
Yeah. Because again, I don't even know if playing like a Chief's alt is necessarily that attractive.
Yeah. They're not gonna be putting in their A game. There's no
reason to. No.
The argument for the alt there or the big spread is just that the ramps themselves, regardless of matchup are so bad at this point and so banged up that they can't score.
Yeah. If I was gonna take an alt, actually, I'd probably take the ramps, like just hoping for a sleep walking game by the chiefs.
I
hope you're not betting on Perkins in the
Rams plus seven and a half two 17. I If the chiefs go down and score touchdown, it's gonna move out to 20. Yeah. But okay. That's better said is live. If I to see any pulse out of the Rams and the chiefs go down and especially if it's score, score like right chiefs like, all right, let's push this game out and then get comfortable.
And then cruise control like Pache, run Pacheco. And I see at least any pulse outta the Rams can per Yeah. If it is percuss, he moving around the court. Can he make a couple of these in throws? Like I, I'll bet Rams plus 20.
Okay.
Saints at the Niners Saints plus nine and a half over .Under 43. I like the Saints
conviction. Why?
I just think, this is three points off.
I think it should be like six and a half. It should be under your touchdown. I
agree. There's always been a Shanahan tax. Like my, one of my favorite I guess little bits is I think the playoff run where Rahi Mo was running for 200 yards is just stamped into everyone's brain.
That like Kyle Shanahan is this run genius. Where do you think they rank in Rush? Epa?
Since you're leading the witness, .
Yeah, but I could be leading the witness in
multiple outside the top 10. They're
19th. . They're 19th. Man. I actually wanna check now last year where they were Right. Let's take a guess where they were last year. And I'm not leading you cuz I have no idea where it's gonna say.
I think they were probably still outside the top 10.
They ninth. Negative epa For what it's worth, like the Galaxy brand. Take that, like Kyle Shanahan's, this run genius, I think has everything to do with a couple of games that are sticking at people's minds.
Way too conservative. I think he does a great job getting the ball to his receivers in space and he has terrific yacht guys and the personnel fits the scheme wonderfully. And they can be good. They run the ball too much. And they're generally way too conservative and that's gonna allow teams to stay in games.
I wanna see how healthy the D line is. They were missing a couple pieces against the Cardinals and Andy Dalton, as we've shown very sensitive to pressure. Yeah. If he's got clean pockets though, he can move the ball. Crystal Lave is a legit number one receiver. That you can get open.
He's a beast that I think they can totally stick around. I think it's a rarity actually the type of game we saw Monday night. Which by the way looks a little different if Deandre Hobbins doesn't get called for Alotting penalty. I don't think that the Niners are the type of team I'm comfortable betting on to extend, especially like the Saints run the events has been good for four years now.
Yeah. And also this is the first week that I feel like I've seen uniform love for the Niners.
Yeah. like Packers six and a half reduced juice at the Philadelphia Eagles over under 46 and a half Sunday night football.
If the Packers are still as bad as drive quality says that they are, which is 27th. Clear market low. Marketing consensus ranking is 12.
If that's right, then this is Eagles all day. Yeah.
So here's the case against that and why I'm holding off pregame, right? What's the script to be? Doodles we've seen in three weeks and run against them. Yeah. Run against them. Play slow. And the Packers wanna do that.
That's exactly what the Packers wanna do. And I think the key stat is the rushing success rate, right? Because EPA, very valuable in understanding the run game as a whole. But if the game plan is rushed successfully, often stack five yard runs against each other. Factors are the fourth in Rush epa.
I think we wanna see, first of all, they trying this game plan. Which in theory they should. And they've, been doing it regardless of the matchup. So you'd think it stays, but who knows? And two are they succeeding at all? Cause I do think the Packers can play exactly that style of game which is the recipe to beat the Eagles.
But then again they they've been bad and like fundamentals matter. And if the Eagles jump out to a lead and they play from ahead, which is where they've been at their best I want no part of the backers.
Yeah, definitely probably a game that's probably a little bit more better suited to bet live. See how it's playing out and if that same script does happen, again, Eagles get too touchdown lead at some point early in the first half. And the Packers don't abandon the run game.
So wanna continue to push that script kinda like they did versus the bills, then I would definitely be a buyer of the Packers plus double digits in a similar type scenario.
Also if this total blows out. Yeah. Due to some early scoring, I would definitely like,
that's the other thing about the Packers is if they, and if they execute that game plan, the under is firmly in total. Yeah. Cause they're gonna run eight, nine minute drives. Yeah. And by the way, wouldn't it be surprising to see the Eagles try and run on the Packers?
And try and milk the clock like the Titans did last week.
All right. Monday night football, the closer Steelers plus two and a half at Matt Ryan and the Colts coming off an impressive game. Verse the Eagles, you kicked off our game trade live betting session having some Sunday morning clarity that the Colts were gonna slow down the Eagles disrupt the Eagles intended game script.
That's exactly what happened. Colts went all the way out to, I think like 75% wind probability. Came down to the final last drive for the Eagles. We had some Eagles exposure that we took late in that game. We didn't chase early which was good. And it was pretty much exactly due to your premonition right off the bat.
It was to stay patient on that game. And so we got some attractive eagles exposure and they were able to bring it home and cash some tickets. Is there any signal in that performance from the colds
maybe. I don't think so. Again, our drive quality scoreboard, has the equals winning this game firmly. And the Steelers are, I think, a little more plucky than I would have given them credit for earlier on. . Meaning I really thought can pick. It was like really bad at this stage.
But again, a rookie quarterbacks improve. This happens all the time. And like George
picks, he's develop. Yeah. Nice.
He's getting, if he's getting open down field, then pickets getting in the ball. Like they'll be able to score. If that happens once or twice a game, that's a drive. So that's a driver that ends in touchdowns that they're plenty enough that I.
Want to not touch this game and like TJ Watkin really take advantage of a bad cults offensive line. Matt Ryan's been taking tons of sacks this year. That's been the Achilles heel all along. Again, something I've been saying from week one, two bad teams.
That's all you need to know and drive quality says that.
Drive Quality has Steelers, right? 32nd that last Yeah. And the Colts 28th. Yep. Market lows on both those teams. Actually no. Football outsiders actually is quite, is actually lower than us on the Kohls at 29th.
I really like taking Steelers at home. , this is now on the road. Probably yeah, the Cols minus two and a half.
Again they stifled the eagles for still three fourths of that game. Just couldn't put the nail in the coffin. This total also looks high for type
of bull was, I was gonna say the alta under definitely a play for two bad offenses.
And I think a Pittsburgh defense that can take advantage of the Cols and the Colts defense is legit.
Yeah. All right, that closes our NFL week 12 betting market outlook. We'll be live trading again on Sunday game trade. Live, bet with us, share some ideas.
We love, brainstorming as it's all going on. Throwing out trade ideas, having us capitalizing them.
And Arjun came through last week with Josh Jacobs. We're getting this weekend week out.
Yeah. All right.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone. And that's closing bell.
