Episode Transcript
Live from Dimes Square, New York City, NFL Week 13, betting market outlook. Let's recap a little bit. We had another really good week in live betting. For those on the screen, you can see the bets that we made this week.
We also had a good bounce back in, circa went four and one, still hanging around . At 50% now. We had Jacksonville, Browns, Bengals, jets. And then with a really frustrating loss with the Falcons at the plus four and a half, fumbling away the game there at the one yard line.
If you were washing our game trade live stream, you would've seen me get extremely frustrated. And pretty much pout about it for a good 15 minutes as a day. Also because we had a live trade on the Falcons. It was intended to be a swing trade, and then we got stuck with it all the way up until the end.
A pretty decent price. It was like Falcons plus two 15. Yeah. And the whole, it was a trade early in the game. We got them. Yeah. Attractive pricing.
They got the ball back, they went down the field, scored a touchdown, took the lead, the price came back down to pick 'em or maybe the falcons even went out to minus one. We didn't do anything about it. Yeah. We're kinda, now let's like, wait for one more . Yeah.
I thought it was fine pricing and had the ball in position to win at the three yard line with a minute left.
That was the coin flip game. But in some ways that was a lot of what Sunday was learned some valuable lessons for the Joe Bur rushing prop. He had the prop
until, oh, why do you, I forgot
about it. I'm sorry. But that's the sort of thing where, lost a couple of those, right?
But all that is to say, I bet the Browns plus 1300, none of that matters when you hit on a tails bet like that. Oh yeah.
Who cares that I, my record was losing cuz I hit on a 13 to one bet. I almost got it at 17 to one, but I wasn't quick enough.
But it still doesn't prevent, at least me, from still getting mad around any that we lose specifically that I feel like were bad traits. Cause you always wanna try to improve your process, improve your decision making.
And all these weren't necessarily bad. The bur one wasn't bad and even the Falcons one, it wasn't bad. It just got me really frustrated. Cause to your point, we basically got them at plus 200 and it came down to them on the one yard line and if they were halfway competent, they would've pushed it in.
Yeah. And for those who weren't following the game trade or weren't aware of Joe Burr's, rushing yards, prop. We had eclipsed the threshold to win the bet by just enough.
Yeah. We, the only thing that couldn't happen was three knees.
And there was also multiple scenarios had to happen for them to even get to the kneeling scenario. Bengals kicked the field goal, went up by a touchdown, then they were gonna have to kick it back to the titans, and then the titans would have to like quickly go three and out or something of that variety to really get into a three kneel scenario.
But of course, the titans, I forgot what they did. Roughed the kicker or something? The kicker, yep. And then gave the Bengals, a new set of downs. Three meals from Joe Burrow then pushes our rushing prop. Super frustrating.
Another one actually was the Michael Carter and Michael, you would've got hurt. Like almost soon as we got the, and then, and Michael Carter's proxies came in and they had great games.
So that's actually three that just went really sideways for us. Yeah. And we're really honing into the ones that went wrong. But this was still one of our best weekends that we had in fact.
Panthers, Broncos, alt Under dolphins, Texans. We had under 53 and a half Chargers chargers plus four and a half plus seven plus 180 plus three 20. Saints 49ers Alt Unders under 35 and a half plus two 10 under 26 and a half plus three 30 under 37 and a half.
Also, we took a Pacheco over prop that cast, we did Chiefs Rams under 42 and a half cashed. And then bucks. Browns under 50 and a half. Browns plus three 20, and then Browns again, plus 1300, Bengals plus three and a half, Bengals plus 1 96 Bengals plus two 11 on the. So like all of those, just clearly mopped up.
Oh yeah. It's but still those one offs. Ah,
it just hurts. It still hurts.
So yeah, another good weekend. Live betting. Definitely encourage everyone to join. I know everyone, it's the holidays and not everyone can necessarily watch all the games like we do and necessarily trade them and have your account open and all of that.
But it's a ton of fun. Again, it's stressful, it has anxiety, but it's fun especially doing it together and especially when others in the chat pop in. I was gonna say, buy some trade ideas. Our June does all the time. Darnell does. Dan does. Dan does. Yeah. It's great to have those contributors.
For sure.
It's very fun to make fun of me. I have a blast watching the replays of myself talking. I can only imagine how fun it is in real time. Yeah.
Yes, definitely.
Okay, so let's move on to recapping our NFL Week 12 Drive quality model, scoreboard.
One that I called in our tweet this week was Patriots, Vikings, Patriots 28, earn Points to Vikings, 27 Earn Points. That just, again, gives me more and more confidence around the efficacy of this model and really flushing out what it is we want it to do, which is, again, capturing on a drive-by drive basis, understanding how this team performed on the field, even if the score doesn't necessarily represent it.
And I think for most who watched this game, the eye test would tell you, Hey, the Patriots played better than the Vikings and this, and the Patriots, quote unquote, should have beat the Vikings. And in fact, that's exactly what our drive quality model is telling us. With, the Patriots outscoring the Vikings from an earn points perspective.
Yeah. The one that stood out as the the box and Browns. Which again like I think the Browns are probably the better team as, as crazy as it sounds. And I've been beating the drum for a while but at least I can back it up here. And just even the the time weighted average probability, like still has the browns on top.
It wasn't just that our metric has it. Others to note is like how close the Dolphins Texans game was by our drive quality. And granted the Dolphins took out to and the offense real early, but right, in most people's clients, that was a blowout.
And certainly by our time weighted average probability, it was a massive blowout just because the score was run up so quickly. But that game is actually pretty.
And actually that corresponds as well with, I know, Kevin Cole from FF does his adjusted scores and we have different methodologies and we're not really even aiming for the same target per se, in what we're truly trying to achieve here.
But I know even in his adjusted scores, the game was actually much closer than the final score really indicated. 17 six. So matches up pretty well, which basically just goes to show, I don't think the Texans are untouchable. Unbeatable. Yeah. I think especially in the second half, they showed they can the move the ball. Especially if a team's gonna relax, then they're capable of still putting points up on the board. Yeah. Which means if you're getting a really juicy price from them, especially live.
Especially live, this was one we didn't even touch. We didn't even sniff it. I don't even think we even mentioned it. But the Texas had moved all the way out to plus 30. Live. Yeah. And what I would say is even versus team like the do, or especially if it's a team that we know or that we have confidence in, has a propensity to relax in the second half, I think you can have confidence in the Texans being a type of team that can put points up in the board.
And we've seen them do that actually frequently throughout the season as well. So something you wanna look out for
for sure.
The last thing I would probably say about looking at our drive quality score board is Jags 30 earned points to Ravens 28 earned points.
So a nice kind of legitimate win there. Time weight, average margin negative two. So we're still, obviously competitive in that game. Despite it looked like there was pretty long odds there near the end looked like Ravens kinda pulling away a classic Jags kind of collapse in the end.
I know you had to bounce for a wedding near the end of the early afternoon slate. And one of the things I was talking on the livestream that I didn't capitalize on, but that I talked about was I feel like this is not priced right, which was the Jags were plus 1700 going into that final drive versus the Ravens that they ended up going down the field and getting the two point conversion.
And of course that still would be relatively long odds, but knowing the Ravens history and this is something that they have a pattern of doing it wasn't 17 to one odds. Yeah. Correct. And
especially if you can get two point conversion possibilities. Knowing that certain teams will do that, actually probably the ravens would do that on the other side is also definitely something to consider.
Cause those moments are gonna come up again. And the same way that the brands were down 1700, right? A team that has the ball left needing a or down by seven with a minute or two left and driving, like that's the press. It's gonna be 1700 and pay attention to team tendencies and you gotta be very sharp and very quick to execute that plant.
Yep,
exactly. And actually last thing I would say is Bengals Titans 24 to 24. Yeah. So there has been some positive steam in the media and other betting analysts coming out of this game, being surprised by. The bank's performance, capturing another win, doing a thought, Jamar chase and in fact from a drive quality perspective, it looks like this game was actually much closer.
We looked at the time weighted average win probability also titans 54%. And that makes sense of why we were able to get such juicy Bengals money line. Yep. Live. And this is another thing why I think it's one of the reasons why we can bet live so well is when you're watching the games, you're betting live, you're experiencing the risk viscerally.
You get to understand like the heartbeat of these teams, how they operate over the course of the game. Because I feel like the main takeaway from this Bengals, Titans game has been like, wow, I guess the Bengals really are that. As if the Bengals were just clearly the better team versus the Titans, and it was an easy bet to make.
No, and it wasn't,
certainly not, it was a difficult one. But I will say our drive quality has had the Bengals on the top five very high for weeks and weeks. That it's almost been forecasting this Bengals immersions that everyone is now
talking about.
And we bet the Bengals a ton this year and we bet the Bengals a ton live.
Yeah. Again, drive quality, giving us the confidence actually to lean into them when they are in. Deficits. That's, and being able to get them at those attractive prices. We've definitely been ahead of the curve when it comes to pricing bankers. From a broader, seasoned perspective.
Now as we look at the week 13 consensus market power rankings, looking at drive quality, has the bankers still as a near top five
Downgraded a little but only, I think as they were surpassed by some big performances.
Yeah. From a broader industry analyst perspective, biggest one week changers. A lot of people impressed by the Steelers performance, and I feel like this is also bleeding off the back to back, pretty good performances from the Steelers as they of put in another good performance for even the Bengal and the losing effort.
It often looks okay. Yeah. We were watching this game together and how the Steelers could be a good example, especially a team being led by a rookie quarterback with a rookie wide receiver. Also still beat up dealing with injuries, but still well coached can evolve over the course of the season.
And even though they're not a good team, they can continue to be less and less of a bad team over time. That makes intuitive sense and I think we're starting to see some of that play out Drive quality. Still not convinced. Drive quality still is a Steelers rank 31st, and that's a market low.
The next one even close to us is ESPN at 28th.
Though, I would be curious how it looks over the past couple of weeks, kinda as they found their form .
Yeah, that's true. Elsewhere, no real other upgrades. This week, Jags were upgraded. Two spots. Browns were upgraded. Two spots, a flurry of ones, Panthers, giants, lions, pretty much anybody that just won some of the biggest downgrades is on the other side of that.
Steeler's match up the Cols downgraded four spots now to 25th. Overall. Saints downgraded three spots, Rams down, three Ravens down to Seahawks, down to, and then a flurry of ones Vikings, Patriots, carts, bears. And then from an overall rankings perspective, not much movement in the top five, top six, again, Raven's down two to seventh.
Overall Dolphins at eight bucks at nine, and then Titan's still sitting there as a top 10 team even after the straight up loss. To the Bengals. We are sitting there near a market low from drive quality perspective, ranking the Titans 16th, broader consensus market power ranking 10th with 5 38 to market high at seventh.
How are you thinking about the Titans? We started off the season very low and we've evolved that thinking over the last couple weeks, but how are you thinking about them now?
So I'm definitely not as low as I was on them early in the season, but I'm also, I do not buy this top 10 ranking.
The Titans really have struggled against good teams and I've beaten the bad ones. I think they're like middle of the pack and can beat teams worse than them. Probably not gonna be able to punch above their weight.
And I think we'll see that with the Eagles this week. And honestly I'm not so sold, they're gonna win the division. I think I'm still not ripping
up the Jags.
I was gonna say Jags have a long way to go, but especially after they play them next week. Yeah, I'm out ripping up Jags tickets.
Yeah. And last year at this time I was actually coming around to the Titans and I wrote a whole thing, but I think they were good. Futures be 21. They ended up winning the The afc. I do not feel the same way this year. They just don't have the same, efficiency framework.
They're really coasting off of an easy schedule right now.
Browns right outside the top 10 at 11 up, two spots now. Deshaun Watson coming back, drive quality at 13th, which is pretty in line with market consensus, standard deviation, three spots.
ESPN at a market high at 9, 5 38, and market low at 16th. How are you thinking about Browns now? Deshaun Watson coming back or kinda wait and see?
Yeah, it's definitely a big wild card. They hasn't played football in two years. Although I will say the delta between Watson Andt.
Probably won't be that huge, only because bet's actually been pretty good. And sure Watson has the potential and the ceiling to get to, a top five quarterback. And that's especially valuable in today's NFL climate where we really don't have so many of those quarterbacks.
But I think realistically maybe a bit of an upgrade, but it can't be too huge unless he immediately finds form and will know if he's putting up, 300 yard four touching on passing games right off the bat. But I'd be pretty surprised if that
happens.
Yeah, I would say, I think you can get a little bit of.
Premature excitement here after this first week, kinda as I anticipated with the Jets Bears Game with Mike White coming in. Like this is the perfect setup for him to look awesome. And then everyone's gonna be like, oh, Mike White. Mike White. Mike White. Yeah. And I feel like it's the perfect setup for Deshaun to come in play Verse Houston in a stadium that he is already very familiar with.
And yeah, I'm sure it's gonna be like a raucous, somewhat raucous crowd. Probably not super red , just a lot of booze. Yeah. But I'm sure he'll feed off that in some, sinister way. Yeah. And he could put in a good performance verse Houston. And then after that, I think it's kinda like a dead cat bounce.
And you're gonna have a lull of, I'm not even sure who the Browns play next week, but I'm sure it's, unless it's the Bears , it's not gonna be as bad as Houston from a defense perspective. And you're gonna get some clunky performances. But I imagine that, after two, three games, he should slowly start to come into form.
But exactly from what you said is the dude hasn't played in multiple years now. And what we saw in the preseason wasn't anything to write home about.
If you took the Madden grades of Jacob Dashaun Watson, there'd be a massive delta, but that's not exactly the case of what's production has been on field this year. He's been really good. And I think you're right, we're gonna need a bunch of games and I'm not sure the brands are gonna be playing meaningful ones and two, three weeks for this to really be relevant.
That's true too.
Have you looked at his rushing props at all? If they're already pricing in, I don't think. Yeah. Yeah. Cause that's something I would wanna look at.
If it's too high, then I'll probably just lay off. But of course Deshaun's gonna be way more prone to run the ball. Than someone like Jacobi, even when he's comfortable. But I think especially cuz he's not necessarily going to be comfortable, he's going to defer to running more often than maybe he even naturally otherwise would.
In this game specifically, or at least over these first few games.
And from the bottom of the barrel, we look at the consensus market power rankings. Texans at a consensus 32 standard deviation, 0. 32 across the board, including drive quality.
It's been this way for a while.
And I look, I think last week suggested they're not totally dead, but at the same time their coaching tendencies do suggest they're thrown in the towel. It's the like lack of regression lack of playing with pace went down.
That's a good call that they're probably not too interested in putting together a game plan, especially in the second half of games or latent games, to try to be creative, to try to actually come back and win, or to sustain a lead or whatnot.
But I do think that they're playing in the sense of trying to evaluate players. So it's oh yeah, maybe you should be picking up the pace of the second half if you're down three touchdowns and they're not. But it's because it's like they're not even playing for that game scenario. They're playing for a neutral state and just trying to evaluate players on the field.
Who knows what the ownership's telling them. I don't know which direction everyone's being pulled in.
One of the things I'm surprised about is Panthers market consensus.
Rank 30th. And I know you don't like that. You were bullying me last week about my Panthers division bed at plus 1000 drive quality actually on market, high on the Panthers at 25th. No one else really even close. The next closest is 5 38 to 27th, but pretty much everyone else, ESPN 31st, pf 30th Football Outsiders 28th in Predict 30.
You did not ask for a worse kind of first game for Donald to come in and play against the Broncos defense. The Broncos secondary, and I've seen a couple post this this week talking about how the Broncos defense has not been as elite as it was over the first 5, 6, 7, 8 weeks of the season.
Which kind of makes sense. But nonetheless, that was not an easy match up. He performed admirably, not great, he didn't light it up, he didn't fall flat on his face.
Yeah. Kept the team in the game, allowed the defense to really dictate and didn't throw the game away. And I think that's enough. In this division to flirt, at least with the division.
Yeah, they might be able to, to flirt. I'd be surprised, but it can happen.
Look, here's the point. I think our draft quality has 'em high cuz we have them as the 11th Best defense. And like Sam Donald Pro can get much worse than the production they were getting from Baker Mayfield. Yeah. Yeah. And as you say, he could play well in short stints and look, he can get, at least get the ball into DJ Moore hands and who knows, no one wants to win the NFC A right now
So who's your call for that? If you don't like the Panthers, then that must, you must like the box,
I guess. We'll see what the Saints can do. I
mean, keep giving the saints chances and it's
yeah, I just, no one wants to win.
I know Drive quality's been relatively high on the Saints for the last for last 5, 6, 7 weeks. And, but continuing to drip lower and lower, we're still at a market high on them at 14th. Market consensus rank is 22nd. Yeah.
Look, I'm almost hoping that the Bucks sneak out of this division and because the market still loves the Bucks, what they're each right now get 'em a home play off game.
Let me bet the the Wild Card team and that'll be my
best profit. No, betting against the Bucks, betting against the teams that we have been uber bearish on from the start of the season has been super profitable. In fact, from a circuit perspective, we should have just leaned in against all the teams that we have very high confidence and being bad and just betting the other sides of 'em.
Yeah, it's true. Look, I really don't know what's going on with the Bucks here. Like from a market consensus power ranking perspective. So Drive quality has the bucks 22nd. Remember we were way early on the fade of the Packers as well.
Yep. And we even still and ranks power rank. Then at 26th, if you got bucks at 22nd marketing, it says it power rank is ninth with a very low standard deviation. A standard deviation of less than one spot. Yeah. And that's because everyone has the Bucks ranked 11th or 10th. Yeah. Nah, like I
just, I don't get it.
We've been saying it for weeks, but like they're still chasing production. Like they had that game, but it's E 13 now too. They had 13. It's crazy. But like they had that game against Seattle where they look good. You're asking me to explain it. I've been every single week since week three been talking about why are the bucks here?
And I've just been coming on weekend and week out just talking about I, I think the boxer fraudulent.
The real assumption is oh, I'm hanging onto the bucks as like potentially being good and I'll use this as like a cherry picked, data point to say this is why they can be the team.
I think they are right. It's just not, it's ignoring the fundamental issues we've been saying for weeks now that have just been plaguing the box in. Aren't going away anytime soon because they're fundamental.
What about lions? Drive quality is near a market high at 17th. Marketing census power rank is 26th.
Pretty high standard deviation of five spots. ESPN ff 5 38, all has them. 25th, 26th, 27th ranked. They're getting healthier. DJ Chark has come back. His snap count is increasing. Caught a couple passes, caught a touchdown in the Thanksgiving game. Is Jameson Williams ever coming back?
I think he's got a shot next week. Cause just him coming back just as a potential distraction can open things up. We liked, again, the offensive play calling. Definitely
like the OC Ben Johnson. The thing with the lions is there's still the worst defense in the league.
Our draft quality has is 32nd. That's
about the, oh, it's 32nd. Gotcha. So I was gonna say, what I really wanna look at too is rate of. Right. You know, So like I know in finance specifically, when you're looking at trying to capture under and overvalued securities and trying to get ahead of trends, you're really not ever looking at absolute values .
You're looking at rates of change, you're trying to assess, where is something going from here. But yeah, given that the lions are 32nd, there's really nowhere to go lower.
The gap has certainly shrunk, but at the same time, I think that more points to they can succeed against teams that shoot themselves on the foot, on the defensive side of the ball. But if they go up in a matchup with a good offense, like it's not happening for them. Yeah. And like what their offense has been really pretty good with the exception of a couple of weeks mixed in. Or they got destroyed by the Patriots and everyone rube them off.
If you remember we were talking about them as consensus 32nd best team in the league just a couple of weeks ago. Yep. And we were like, our drive quality has 'em higher. They're not the 32nd team in the league. Yeah, I think it's somewhere between where our drive quality has and where the rest of the market does which is like a team that can win because their offense is fine.
But the defense is still a major
issue for them.
Yeah, that makes sense. To close on our consensus market powering, I was looking at the year to date changes. And we can see some of the biggest downgrades of the season where all those teams that we were some of the most bearish theses on Fox Colts.
Rams definitely had that thesis around the Broncos chargers is definitely surprising. Yeah, that's
surprising. But that I feel is a little more excusable cuz of the injuries. Slew of injuries. Yeah. But yeah, most of those teams we've been selling
and then from the opposite side of the spectrum Jets. This was one that we didn't necessarily agree on in the preseason, but I know you really saw upside in the Jets this season and right there.
They're one of the most upgraded teams over the course of the year. And even the Cowboys is a little bit distorted because press injury Cooper Rush. So really the most upgraded team this year is the Jets. Yeah. In a team that, you went in with a bulge thesis on.
I know that's interesting.
And I'm still hanging onto some crazy long shot. I've got 250 to one Jet Super Bowl ticket. We'll see how that one plays out.
Alright, so let's move into NFL Week 13 on Thursday. Bills at Patriots. Patriots plus three and a half. 43 and a half is the total.
Pressure has been coming down on the bills. From a Draft King's perspective. Purportedly 77% of the bets coming in on Bills, 23% on Patriots. How you think about this one?
It's a tricky spot only because I want to like the bills long term.
I think our numbers have it right as that they're as the best team, but I'm concerned about Josh Allen's elbow. I really am. He has not been the same player the past couple of weeks. That I'm not really sure what to make of it. The Patriots also were really good on defense and then like in a spot you'd expect them to succeed.
Like against her cousins in prime time who struggles with interior pressure. They failed to shut down. Justin Jefferson it's a spot for me to be live. There are too many competing factors before the game starts. I'll be looking to bed live and I will just note for the good folks here Andre Stevenson live props are super, super attractive.
If the Patriots are finding themselves behind he's earned like a 33% target share. When the Patriots are trailing, which is the second highest target share in the league, Damien Harris is out. The rushing prop is basically priced for a season long average right now. I probably like a pregame.
I really like it. If the Patriots fall behind, then the prompt doesn't
adjust.
I like that. That's a good call out. Definitely. Eyeing or Madre Stevenson Live props. Yeah, that looks juicy. I don't know. From my perspective, this is again, the market continues to warm up on the Patriots upgraded seven spots on a year to date basis market consensus, rank 13th playing
almost a consensus number one team. I understand, there's the potential. Josh Allen injury, elbow issues, but I would say I like the bills minus three and a half. Yeah. I wanna think that whatever Josh Allen's dealing with, It's going to get better over time. That's at least what it seemed like it was gonna be when they were first talking about it, when he first experienced the injury that, he could potentially be out three or four weeks, so now it's been about three weeks. And so you think that even if he had been out, this is the time when he would've been coming back. And for that reason, I feel five, six weeks ago, what would this price have been? Six and a half. Six. Yeah. See I like the bills.
That's fair.
Jets, Vikings, jets in Minnesota. Plus three over under 44 and a half. This total seems high. I'm not expecting a type of Mike White performance that we saw last week versus the Bears. Again, it doesn't mean that he has to be like absolute trash or he is gonna play completely miserable, but I expect more of a down to earth performance.
I probably like the Vikings here.
What's given me a bit of pause against the Vikings is like their past defense is really collapsed the past bunch of weeks or like a bottom five unit and we could see some more my white success here because of that.
In which case I definitely don't like the under total. I think as a matter of who pushes the game and who's pushing the pace. If the jets can come out to a lead, utilize the short passing game, which is what Mike White used to do, lean on the running backs.
In that case, maybe the theater's a bit attractive. I just see this as like a classic Minnesota Vikings game, but just like it's going to end up in one score one way or another.
Yeah. So basically if they fall behind, yeah, if they fall behind,
they'll come back. I'm super intrigued about the, sauce gardener, Justin Jefferson matchup.
That's another angle to possibly have pause on the Vikings, but they're the better team here. Let's not loo ourselves. Lots of competing factors. I don't have such a strong lean one way or another before the game.
Also, what I wanna keep top of mind
is some of these alt lines. So like there's this particular game script that has this probability of materializing and if it does materialize, then it pays off to lean into one of these alt lines. And one of the ones I wish that, I don't know if you did.
Yeah. But it makes perfect sense, not only in hindsight, but definitely pre-game and it's something I wish I would've had exposure to but was betting jets, alt lines versus the bears. Yeah. In the sense of if that game script plays out, then the jets are gonna win by definitely more than
six. I did something similar, which is combine a player prop and jets alt spread.
And I said if the jets are covering the alt spread, it's going to come through Means it's having success against the bads bears, bad bears passing the offense. And I hit that last week. I can, unfortunately we don't have props available recording this on Wednesday night. But that's certainly an angle to take.
And we can have a pretty good guesstimate of what the lines are gonna be. And that's something I'll be on the lookout for all weekend.
And that's why even going back to Patriot's bills, like I feel like betting Patriots minus three, plus 2 0 7.
Okay. And then betting bills minus.
So here's a better way to do it using our friend of the same game parlay, right? What's the scenario in which the bills win?
Josh Allen doesn't have at least an okay
passing game. Yeah, probably cuz Mack Jones sucks. I would see the bills win by margin because it's not necessarily like the bills are being super effective offensively , but it's more or less the Patriots on Patriots is really struggling.
Okay, so let's get a game line, whatever it is, team scoring, props if you like it. Patriots like under 20 and a half or something? Yeah, you can get bills. What you like it like minus five and a half? I would take it deeper. Seven and a half.
Nine
and a half. Nine and a half. Bills? Nine and a half.
Patriots Under 20 and a half plus two 50.
Also with the Jets Vikings alt line, maybe we do get at least another kind of good.
Mike White gain out, right? So you look at your jets five and a half plus two 40,
but that's yeah. Jets five and a half plus two 40. Again, gimme some Mike White passing yards. We're gonna get that up to 500. Yeah, that's the
play. Yeah, I like that. So now that is a good bat. Construction, right?
Broncos plus eight on the road.
Verse the Ravens over under a very low 38 and a half when we looked at our short term value signal. Looks at the pricing, the market power ranking of in predict versus the teams broader consensus market power ranking. Looking at the difference, they gotta give you a sense of is this team being overly discounted or does it have an overly adjusted premium based on like the specific matchup at hand when you look at it from that perspective.
Saying the Broncos are actually the number one team that's being overvalued right now, which would suggest then to basically slam the Ravens. And we haven't seen like a great offensive performance from the Ravens for quite some time now. They continue to look clunky. They can't close games.
But this is a potential game where especially if that broader Broncos defensive trend of the market's still pricing it as elite, but it's getting worse and worse week by week, that potentially this could be a game where, you can lean into either a Ravens alt spread looking at, Ravens minus.
13 plus 1 54, 13 a half, 1 61, or lean into an alt under in that again, this is gonna be one of those just really ugly games again.
I wanna see if Jerry Judy's back for this game.
I think that does make at least a marginal difference. But the Broncos are really bad. They've seemingly Russell Wilson's lost the locker room. It's not a place I want to be betting on them. With that said just because of the nature of Russell Wilson's play, like he's gonna be taking a bunch of deep shots if he happens to connect on two or three that's always the tails risk.
But I haven't been against Russell Wilson now for weeks.
The other thing is I've not been very hot on the Ravens at all. I know Drive Quality has liked the Ravens. It's like basically priced them right along with market. In fact, we're dead on with market right now.
Drive Quality ranked seventh market since it's power ranked seventh. Football outsiders at a market high on the Ravens at ranking them. The number two team. It's just every time I watch 'em, they do not pass the eye test for me as far as looking like a good team.
I know it's not all falling on the Mar Jackson's shoulders. Players are dropping passes. He doesn't have anyone to throw to, no JK Dobbins.
And so for that reason, maybe I would be like, again, maybe somewhat skeptical.
I can't bet either side of this game because of what you just outlined on the Raven side and just how bad the bro have been.
Yeah, that's fair.
Commanders coms at the Giants. Comedy's mind is two and a half over under 40 market really selling off on the Giants
That leads me to buy Giants. I agree with you, especially, you look at the, it's real cell 27th and if you look at the turnover luck, it's been a lot of com's luck in recent weeks.
And the Giants have been fine over the course of the year. Were they a seven and two team? No, but like they're still, 16th in epa, the team is still average. I think the coms profile looks very different if they don't get a bunch of turnovers in recent weeks. And I think the game narrative is totally changed if, like a couple of these one score games, I don't know, like the Falcons didn't throw an interception at the goal line.
I think it all looks very different if the coms lost, two of these, the one score games that they've been in
every single. Yeah. And again, Heineke is not, again he's the quarterback and he can get that superficial credit for leading this team to all these wins that they've been piling up.
But he's not necessarily playing that well. And I was not playing like bad in the sense of like Carson, we was putting them in vulnerable positions, throwing very important interceptions, getting sacked in compromising situations in the game. He's been able to avoid that, but it's not like he's like racking up yards, racking up stats, looking really great.
He's like prime game manager. Yeah.
And he is the dude's still 38th at 39th and in pff grade? I'm not exactly looking to buy Taylor. It's not a screaming by and yes, the giants are banged up. I'm just not sure that the copies of the team that can take advantage of it.
Yeah.
And put in a very admirable effort versus the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day.
If there, David SI's caught touchdown that was taken off cuz of an ineligible man, was the right call. But like he didn't actually have any effects on the play.
Like game looks very different.
Yeah. Time weighted average margin and that game for the Giants was just minus two. So I'm saying, this was basically a feel goal game for the duration of it. And this was the game that they were expected to get absolutely smashed. Sure.
Yeah. We'll see off a long week.
How had the offensive line, if they're healthier? At this moment I definitely am lean towards the Giants.
All right. Titans plus four and a half at Philadelphia over under 44 and a.
There's this narrative that, oh, Derek, he is still so good. This rushing attack is like still terrific. That like really hasn't been the case at all. Their 24th in Rush epa. Their success rate 25th, like this has not exactly been a good rushing offense by any stretching imagination.
Derek Kennedy's still an opportunity cause problem. They're still giving him the ball. Way too much. The Eagles should have Jordan Davis back in this game. And I think that's like the classic handicap that's being built into this price and I just totally reject that. I don't think the titans pass the offense will be able to stop jail and Hertz, especially if he's running the ball again. He had barely any forgetting the exact numbers, barely any design rushes basically the past like five or six weeks.
And then he had like 12 over the past couple. Like they're running him again. I don't think the Titans are gonna be able to stop it. I like the Eagles here for sure.
62% of the handle, 56% of the bets on the Titans in this. Do you know where the Eagles stack from a defensive EPA perspective? Cause I know that's obviously been one of their vulnerabilities, especially as those injuries have piled up.
and where they've been able to get taken advantage of. Yeah. So I think that's probably the handicap that I think is really driving some of that.
Yeah, exactly. Which is meaning Okay. Past the offense is basically tied for number one. Rush defense is forth worst. I'm just not sure that the titans of the team take advantage of it, as crazy as that sounds and I think that's exactly what's getting priced in.
It's oh, Titans, Derek Henry top five rushing attack. I don't think that's true. That's not what the titans are this year. They've got a really banged off offensive line and Derek Henry's getting pretty gold. Like his, he's leading the lead in rushing yards, but that's product of volume, not efficiency.
And the titans market consensus power rankings hasn't ranked as a top 10. Team drive quality has 'em closer to 16th. So that's something where the market is definitely buying into the titans, reevaluating them from a fundamental perspective. We talked about even we are, but not that much.
Yeah.
Brown's a full touchdown favorite on the road. Deshaun Watson, returning to Houston. Verse the Texans over under 47. Yeah.
Good Teaser, like good teaser. Oh yeah, for sure.
I don't know enough about what the team's gonna look like with Dashaun Watson. What Dashaun Watson's gonna look like to bet this pregame. I don't know why I'd pay that, pay the price to, to not learn more information.
Yeah. Yeah. I think this is yeah, stay away from, for my part, just too many questions, too many variables. I would like to look into, Deshaun wants rush props when they come out. If they're already pricing in my handicap of how Deshaun wants might perform, then I'm just gonna lay off.
Wow. Okay. Jacksonville plus one now Jackson plus one again on the road verse the alliance over under 51 and a half. know the line is defense is bad, but
The Jaguar's offense has not ever looked truly explosive outside of that Chargers game in the first two, three weeks of the season.
Jag's defense is tough. Lions are definitely more explosive at home and again, getting healthier. More players on the field. We like their play calling. I think I still like Jags here though. We bet the Jags, I don't know. Oh, probably close to 10 times this season.
I like the Jags again here.
I really like the Jags. And for all the reasons you just outlined and like another, the lines play a ton of man coverage and the best team in the NFL against man coverage. Yep. Jacksonville Jaguars. I think that's a, I love that angle. That's a key angle for this game when we're talking about things on the extreme right, an extreme man team and then a team that is extremely good against man.
That really matters. That's a match angle that matters. And I think it, it just adds to all the fundamental factors you just outlined.
70% of the bets on draft kings, on the lions, people buying the lions.
Also, this was an interesting angle I heard, I'll take the points.
That Argen was talking about how in the Dan Campbell era after these kind of crushing losses Yeah. They've come out completely flat. In the next week and like lost games by 25. And it happened two or three times last year. Already happened this year. Gave me with some jaguars alts
lettered. I like that. Also, the expectations for someone like Trevor Lawrence at the beginning of the season were so high Yeah.
That he couldn't meet them. And Now there's been a reversal. And again, they've lost a lot of close games, a lot of bonehead mistakes. We are very well aware of it. But that Trevor Lawrence narrative, which is not materialized, but over the last three, four weeks, he's definitely been playing much better.
Almost like in a sneaky way, not doing it in super flashy, but he is been affected, be efficient. And that's another thing, what we talked about a lot in our pre-season previews as well, is you don't wanna be playing the Jaguars in the last quarter of the season. Yep. Cause that's when we think they're probably gonna be actually at their best.
Yeah. And that you wanna play them early in the season in fashion, take advantage of some of the immaturity, some of the growing pains. And so this actually seems like a perfect matchup. For the Jaguars really take advantage of a vulnerable defense.
Yeah. And I'm curious, where do you think Trevor Lawrence and ranks in, in total epa?
What number?
Oh, like on a season to day basis? , I'll give it to you. 14th. Seventh.
Seventh. Seventh Fest. It's
really his season and I would love to see actually what it is over the last five weeks.
Yeah. His season was up, went down. Everyone sold it off and was like, ah, we thought we were onto something. Really were not. And exactly like I said on that game trade during the Raiders.
Everyone had sold off completely. Yeah. And that's exactly the time
to buy. Yeah. That actually could have been the terminal bottom. Yeah.
But I think that's almost exactly the point of something we talked a lot about during the off season which is like keeping thread of the long term and seeing like we had good reason to think Trevor Lawrence is going to improve.
We had good reason to form a firm prior and just because there's a bunch of short term noise that happened up between weeks six and nine with a bunch of fluky stuff I'll add which is part of the handicap and we know that's gonna happen with the jaguars, but it's every bit as true for the lines.
But back to the point, we have a firm handicap and don't lose sight of that long term view because of a couple noisy weeks. Like stick to that view. It's playing out.
Two preseason darlings here in Jaguar's Lions. Have shown that upside just hasn't fully materialized. Yep.
Steelers plus one at the Falcons over under 42 Steelers, again, one of the most upgraded teams over the last couple weeks we're basically power ranked as a bottom two team are now are approaching a top 20 team.
How do you think about this pass? Pass? It's just I think I do like the Steelers here. I feel like it could be late, like you're buying late. I, it's also but
the Falcons I think are a team that everyone's written off. But they're still pretty good, the same team they've been the whole time.
And I think that might be enough against the Steelers slow game. If they run the ball effectively.
I just, I could see it. I just,
and I don't know, it's, I don't have confidence buying the Steelers at the top. Like what you're gonna bet on, you're gonna bet on Kenny Picket after two good weeks against some bad teams. The bangles aren't bad, but yeah,
that's what I'm saying.
I don't know if this is necessarily the game to prove, like stip pick momentum. It was
just a weird game script. This is the spot, this is exactly the spot they come back down to and lose.
This is not exactly the spot. There's nothing to say oh, this is like the perfect spot for this.
Dealers come back down to her if, cause there's nothing you feel like there's necessarily even a bad
spot. I don't know. I think that, I think the Falcons are probably pretty underrated relative to to market expectation what we have it as. The Falcons is the 26th best team. I don't think that's right.
I think the 22nd, 21st. They're a team who like doesn't have a great, long term outlook, but like they're still producing, they're still playing close games.
Drive quality as the Steelers still as the 31st best team. So I definitely get your hesitation. 55% of the bets are coming in on the Steelers.
So pretty split. Yeah, I mean it definitely feels late if you wanted to come in to buy the Steelers now, especially at a pick 'em. But this is a game that especially live, I wouldn't hesitate. To buy the Steelers, especially the Falcons get an early score.
All right. Packers at Bears in Chicago Packers minus four and a half.
I know the look of headline was minus one. I think with the anticipation that Justin Fields could probably still potentially play. Total 43 and a half. The Packers, have looked better on a week by week basis. Bears hung around with the Jets for about a half.
Trevor see me in, put in one or two good drives. What do you think about this one?
How healthy are Rogers? I have no idea. If Justin Fuel isn't playing, like really all the talent's been stripped off this team that I just can't see a way to bet the Bears. And the Packers have been fine, but like four and a half margin for a team that's really struggled to score points is a little bit tough
as well.
Being a Bears fan, I just blindly bet the Packers anytime they're playing the Bears . But the Packers are different this year and the Bears are still bad. Is there still a possibility of Justin Field's actually playing? I would assume not
based on the line. Yeah. And if he does the line's gonna move?
? No. Probably even at the four and a half. I like the Packers. If there's any potential to get the Packers live at plus money or close to pick 'em.
I would like the Packers, I think Packers potentially alt line. I know they have not really blown out any team all season. That doesn't mean it probably last time was the Bears . Yeah. In Lambo, like week two. But there is a little bit of a bias coming through here, that's for sure. But I can't touch the bears.
Cannot touch the Bears. Cannot touch the bears right now.
Dolphins plus four in San Francisco over under 46 and a half. I know you have a lot to say about this one.
I like the dolphins here. The dolphins implied point total is 20 and a half right now. A little bit used to the over but not much.
Which suggests, and not even suggests, it's telling us that the market is really buying into the Niners defense, which I think is misguided at best. First off, as a general principal, if there is an offense that is elite, and I don't say elite, lightly but the elite offense, even if they're going up against a good or elite defense, the matchup doesn't really matter.
I think that's especially true when you look at how the dolphins are winning. Which it isn't like they are very good in one area, right? They're really good against man. And if you're a team that runs a ton of zone, you can stop it. But like with Tua, they're like best against man.
They're best against zone, they're best under pressure. They're best, they're a clean pocket. They're best against the blitz. All factors. They've been terrific. Which is suggesting like the match's not really gonna be relevant here. And I think some people have pointed to as you can see in that first comment the fact that they don't have a left tackle.
And I think I, my response is basically that like what's been so incredible about to a season is that he has an extremely low time to throw. It's only 2.5, which is time for the third lowest in the league, yet he's throwing the ball really deep. And that kind of mitigates the need for a good offensive lot for getting the ball out so quickly.
Like sure if Nick Boza is ru can havoc In two seconds or less. Nobody can ever win. But maybe that's an angle to be live. But I just, I don't see why the market is pressing in such a premium on the Niners defense. Dolphins scored 30 plus in basically every game.
The one clunker was to his first game back after that terrifying concussion. I'm willing to let that one go and say this offense has been elite. I'm gonna fade. Any pressing in of the
the defense?
Have you seen any betters of influence having a view on this game?
I have not.
Yeah. Maybe 75% of the bets on draft Kings on. The Dolphins. Thinking about, if your thesis plays out, so how are you actually expressing that?
So I'm gonna bet, yeah, I'm gonna bet it two ways, which is One Dolphins, two and a half and over 44 and a half.
I got it. A plus 400. I think it's already down to three 90 or three 80. And the second way I'm going to express that is we know how the Dolphins wanna win mass bypass, passing the football, give a little two of Prop and a Dolphins.
Yeah. I think that's a right way to think about
constructing. And I'm gonna get really crazy when I go five and a half and to passenger yard, it's gonna get 900 or whatever.
Yeah. Yeah, I just fade the defense narrative. That's really what's going on here. Kinda
similar to the handicap that you had for chiefs Niners.
Yeah. It's exactly the same handicap. And the honor, haven't really been tested since that game and they gave up 44.
Even if the Dolphins are dealing with offensive line issues, BOA and the Niners are into his face right away. Don't you think McDaniel is smart enough, to realize this, to game plan around this that the offense is perfectly designed to get rid of the ball. Yeah. As fast as
possible.
Yeah, that's what I was saying. They have an extremely low time to throw. That eliminates how much your offensive line really matters.
, and also that dolphin offensive line weakness right now. Verse nine, defensive line strength is well-documented.
Side that's more than priced into this line. Absolutely. As of
right now, always a Shanahan premium also.
Yeah that's all true. Although I think there is increasingly more and more so Mike McDaniel. That's true.
That's true as well.
And also, I'm not totally caught into Mike McDaniel, what he's doing yet.
This is like classic first year head coach starts off hot things are going right and everyone is ready to crown 'em as like the next great thinker in football. Yeah.
This is a point I should have made, they seem like a tier two team when you look at like our drive quality or like any efficiency metric.
But if you just take the values of the two games, they're just as good as the chiefs. Yeah. Okay. Had to keep, and like McDaniel might be priced in or whatever it is. And we could be less saying who's good in a vacuum and who's not, and that's an interesting football question. But I care about production and production right now.
The Dolphins with Tua have been the best offense in the league. That's what the numbers say. I'm willing to lean into that.
In the short term kind of values shake Deal would say that the Niners are actually overrated in this spot, which would be another buy on.
The Dolphins there.
Seahawks minus seven and a half at LA Rams over under 41. Very hard to bet the Rams and they put it in a spirited effort versus the Chiefs. But like we talked about last week too, it wasn't necessarily a game where the chiefs necessarily needed to really press the pedal. They were in control of that game pretty much, whole time.
Even if, they only up by a touchdown for long stretches of the game. Because it was just like, it's if the chiefs wanna extend this lead, then they can't, it's kinda just like toying.
Yeah, this seems like another good teaser leg with my, my Browns one. The Rams are so bad right now. They might be 31st. They're without Aaron. Donald now. They really just have no talent. I just, I don't know what else there is to say other than this team's bad .
That's downgraded three spots last week downgraded 17 spots here to date. Drive quality has on 29th and market rate 28th.
I like the Seahawks.
62% of the bets coming in on the Seahawks.
I don't have a strong view on this game. Maybe the Rams get a little bit sneaky here, down the stretch. Still. Division game.
I wouldn't touch Seahawks minus seven and a half.
No. I like to cover
the T like in fact, I probably like the Overhear 41. I think the Rams showed they can move the ball a little bit. And the Seahawks defense is not good. Rams defense is not good.
Seahawks and Score, I definitely like the overhear. I like the over 41,
Getting the over in a game with Bryce Perkins is gutsy but I understand the angle.
Chief Spans Chiefs minus one and a half over under 53. This is a juicy game.
Oh,
Live trading Galo
here. Whoa. Yeah, this one's gonna be beautiful.
Actually this is a late afternoon game too. Yeah. Like as those late games are winding down, half time of those early games can really start to look at what the Sgb prices are looking at, do some builds on game trade that'll definitely be, that's gonna be a
fun game trade.
I'm really looking
forward to it. Yeah, that's what's gonna be fun.
And also this is a good game.
Chargers at Raiders. Yeah. Chargers one and a half over, under 50 and a half. Both teams starting to show some life here in the last few weeks. Are you getting nervous? No. About the Raiders? The season under bets that we have? No.
loose of the chargers in the spot.
Oh, so you're on the Chargers.
I'm on the Chargers here. I think Harpert is like actually healthy. And Keen and Allen's back. They have sufficient weapons for the Chargers to play at the level they need to. And it seems to me like we're buying the Raiders at the top. Coming off three wins.
They were great offensively last week. The defense is still a train wreck. Yeah. And they weren't like convincing wins in beating the Broncos and overtime. But look, ultimately this is more one side play that the Chargers are back healthy and they're a far better team cause they're being priced as the team that didn't have a healthy Justin Herbert and didn't have healthy weapons.
I think this is gonna be another really good game to trade live, especially since the Chargers have started off slow. I loved the Chargers last week, first the Cardinals on that and I'm just so happy. I definitely give Dan credit as well cause he was. Out there in the chat telling me like, I was like articulating my thesis.
He was like, yeah, I think you should wait. I'm like, yeah, I think I should probably just wait two. And it turned out to be critical not to bet the Chargers early in that game, given that they only won by one point. Yeah. And to wait. And you just got incredible prices. In fact, one of those mis triggers actually almost happened to me, I thought, I bet $1,500 on the Chargers plus nine. Cuz know, I was like trying to do the trade really fast. Yeah. And I'm on there, I'm like, oh. I'm like damn it. Like I just put $1,500 on Chargers plus nine . Which I didn't, it turned out to actually, it was just my one 15.
But even after it happened, I actually wasn't even that max and Probably a really good bet. , in fact then never nine and a half never showed up again. Like Chargers, got a first down the next play and that was .
Yeah, wow. Where's this gonna be a great four o'clock sleep for live betting.
Cowboys Colts on the road, plus 1143 and a half. Sunday night football.
I think it's press, right? What I'd be curious to see is the Cowboys have started slow generally in games. If that line can move down to seven or we can get a like cold first touchdown. The Matt Ryan match up against the Cowboys Pass rushes. As big of a mismatch as we're gonna have all year. The Cowboys play with Pace when they go up with a lead. I guess I'm talking myself into Cowboy Spread right here. Yeah, I don't see how you can back the Colts.
And I like cowboy.
Something I've talked about even after that Bikings game was I just, I don't trust the Cowboys. I'm not buying into the cowboys. I'm not betting 'em double digits, even verse a banged up team like the Colts. I think the Cols have definitely shown enough life over the past couple weeks since Matt Ryan's come back, since Jeff Saturday's taken over.
And maybe that spark is kinda, you had a little bit of a bounce and now it's of coming back down to reality and of demonstrating why they benched Matt Ryan to begin with. Maybe this is the game and he's get absolutely destroyed by Micah Parsons and the pressure of the Cowboys.
So I'm not, I wouldn't make an argument to bet the colds. But I don't trust, I don't trust the Cowboys. I hear it again. They should have, they just don't show up in games that you feel like that they should like, oh this makes perfect sense why they should blow this team out.
And then and they don't, or they just lose, sometimes lose they show up in like weird spots that you don't expect them to. Everyone thought the cowboys were gonna destroy the Packers. They don't, in fact, they lost. Everyone thought the cowboys were gonna destroy the giants and they struggled the whole game until the second half pulled away a little bit, but still always, that game was still relatively competitive.
And I just don't trust 'em with these big lines.
But playing the tail scenario though is I'd much more be inclined to lay cowboys minus 17 and a half alt line rather than ts plus four and a Yeah,
for sure.
Saints plus four at the Bucks over under 40 and a half Auto Saints spent. Yeah.
I'm surprised actually. It's this high given just the history. This total seems potentially high as well. If the right game scripts, especially playing out, leaning into some of these big all unders under 26 and a half, plus 600 . Yeah. Especially like in Browns bucks, if you get an early score or a couple early scores. Oh yeah. And this blows out to above 50. That's, then you lean into the all under 43 and a half plus 2 85 plus 300 and really potentially be a nice money maker.
So that wraps up our NFL Week 13 Betting Market Outlook. We'll see you on Sunday live betting the nfl Sunday. Slate's gonna be an awesome one, so hopefully you'll be able to join us. Until then, as closing bell.
