Episode Transcript
Anthony Richardson is one of the most divisive rookies this year. Does he even flirt with his ceiling outcomes? Does it even matter? I mean, Are the Jaguars by far and away the best team in the division that they're just gonna run away with it? Or do they still lack the maturity to consistently get the job done and leave the door open for those always pesky Titans now equipped with D Hop? We're previewing the 2023 AFC South...
Let's hit the opening bell.
It's 8:38 PM on Ball Street in New York City. July 31st. Training camp is hot and heavy in full swing. Welcome to Alpha Bets. I'm DeepValueBettor with Throwthedamball, Judah Fortgang and our guest Bully the Board from TikTok, spreading the analytics gospel, 30 second clips at a time.
Do you do any dance moves?
Not yet, but I think we may be breaking some out this year. Thanks so much for having me. Me and two others Kevin and Steve, are trying to educate the marketplace on how to think about betting through analytics and quantifying edges.
You can follow us on Bully the Board anywhere you can look up social medias and we also have a website, bullytheboard.com. Happy to be here guys.
Awesome. Good to have you. How you been Judah?
I lost a lot of hair. I feel a lot younger, energetic. Happy as always to talk
football.
It's crunch time. Hall of fame game coming up.
Alright. 2023 win total futures for the AFC South. Texans at the bottom with six and a half wins. Juiced to the under colts. Six and a half wins juiced to the over.
Titans at seven and a half wins even money. And then you got the Jags with a comfortable spread there at the top. Over under nine and a half wins heavily juiced to the over -140. We are showing some of the alt totals on the screen, courtesy of circa.
What are your guys' alphabets? We're just gonna preview it a bit here. Say your bet, what you think about it, maybe five seconds of substance to support it and then we're moving on.
Quick and dirty Titans. Over the seven and a half.
Yeah, I'm gonna go jags, division minus 1 55.
Taking the favorite two weeks in a row. Saints guy, Jags guy.
You gotta play the prices.
All right.
My bet is gonna be similar to Judah's, but I'm gonna reach out a little bit further on the risk curve. I'm gonna do alt over on the Jags 10 and a half +165 at Circa. Once we get to the Jags. We'll talk about how many leads they had this season, how many they blew, but I'm basically baking in the prospect that this team is more mature than they were last season.
I did not follow my own instructions about saying like five seconds of substance. All right, let's move on. Let's look at the volatility profiles, the range of outcomes for these teams looking at last season. We're using EDP P to do this. We're looking at the offensive earned drive points.
Judah, maybe you wanna remind our audience a little bit about EDP drive quality in general. 'cause we're gonna be referencing a lot over the course of the season.
Yeah.
Essentially, you can think about it as how well did the team move the ball? A 75 yard touchdown drive on the backs of a blown coverage is not the same thing as an extended 7, 8, 9 play drive that that lasted 75 yards.
Yeah. And one of the things that you'll see as we continue to go through these slides, our drive quality model spits out power rankings of course, every single week.
And what we saw a lot even last week when we were previewing the N F C South, how off market. Our drive quality model was, and how ahead of the curve it really was. Slicing through, the superficial final scores, especially as you get deeper into the season and you start to forget and you start to lose context around what happened in some of those previous games, and you start to revert back to what those final scores were.
Drive quality reads through that BS and tries to evaluate the true underlying substance of how many points did a team earn on their drive irrespective of if they actually scored. So this is our way fleshing out truth from outcomes.
And so we can see on the screen, The Titans, the Texans, the Colts all really bunched up there. So the volatility profiles of those teams were actually quite similar. But we can see the Jags a clear separator and that was one thing that we saw in our drive quality model.
Power rankings. Pretty much hated all of these teams all season jumped off the Colts very quickly last year, which we'll see, and really rode the Jags. There was a rough patch there in the middle of the season. Some very frustrating betts that we lost, especially live as they literally fumbled away games sometimes.
But anything from you, Judah or or Seth on when you're looking at this?
Just how, how bunch together those three teams were. In one's head, they kind of assume maybe from previous years that the titans are kind of in a different category of team and like everyone knew the Texans and cults were bad, but can't emphasize just enough how bad the titans were, at least by our earned drive points and drive quality metric.
Yeah.
All these teams were pretty bad last year. I think the culture, the most surprising. I think they're over, under, last year was set in nine and a half. Mm-hmm. And we modeled that out and had had that under in our analytics.
I think the titans are still a question mark to me. I don't wanna make excuses, but if you look at injury adjustment, the Titans stand out as the, the number one, injury adjusted team.
How does that translate here to the future? I think the jags do seem to be head and shoulders above here. I forget what exactly is priced at, but right around 55%, you know, implied probability.
And that's a pretty big slam dunk for divisional winner in the NFL.
The one thing that we'll get into as we start to get into some of these teams though, is they all kind of showed flashes from time to time. Everyone likes to make fun of the Souths N F C South and the A f C South, but both the Texans, the Colts, and the Titans all had some sneaky good performances.
All of them Play the Chiefs very well, if not beat them outright. And all of these teams I would say, got priced higher. Certainly the Texans one of the things we'll get to. But lastly, before we get into the team profiles, one thing I put together was just looking at how far are these teams traveling this year?
So we know that the Jags unprecedented playing two London games this year back to back. And when I was looking through the data, in fact, once they're done with those games, and again, it's not like they have to travel to London, come back, then go back to London and then come back, they're obviously gonna stay there.
Once you take out that travel, there's no team that travels less than the Jags. So even considering traveling overseas they're basically right around average.
Okay, let's get into the Texans. We'll start off with looking at their offensive and defensive earned drive points.
For those who still aren't necessarily fully comfortable with E D P, you can use it as a proxy for e p a, the way you think about e p a, think about it under the same kind of general framework. It's just e d P is better, certainly as a team level statistic. And something that we've demonstrated in our research note is that it offers more team level predictability.
So if you want to use a particular analytic for betting purposes, you're gonna wanna use E D P. So check out that note.
So we look at the Texans terrible offense actually the worst offense in the league.
But had a pretty decent defense. What do you think Juda? Yeah.
A league average defense though I think the most important piece of all of this is the new head coach in Dko Ryans this is something that I researched last summer, which is that especially in coverage almost the most important thing is the, the defensive coordinator and the positions that a coordinator places his cornerbacks and his safeties.
And when you look at a team like the Texans, they have a lot of talent on the outside, I'm thinking of Derek Tinley, a former first round pick who absolutely dominated in college was a guy who graded out as one of the worst cornerbacks in the league last year but did show some flashes.
He's one of the best at limiting guards after the catch one of the best at the catch point. And a guy who, thrown a new coordinator in Tam Ryan's, who's obviously had success in San Francisco and probably will get better in the separation aspect just by virtue of the position that he's placed in.
You look at a guy like Steven Nelson who's a legit n f L corner and then you kind of round out the rest of the defense. Jimmy Ward, a real good safety. He ranked six by, you know, PFFs numbers. Will Anderson a top prospect. I think you can kind of have some projection will be pretty good in year one.
Jerry Hugh, Sheldon Rankins, these are N F L guys and I think there's every reason to think they'll be pretty good.
Yeah, the big questions for me are on the offense. And you can see here through offensive E D P, that's where they struggled.
And new offensive coordinator coming in, of course with the new coaching staff overall, but a first time offensive coordinator. So this will be interesting.
There's a bit of an experiment here. You can convince yourself of a lot of potential. The draft picks alone it looks like all signs are pointing to Mechi coming back from, from beating leukemia, that's huge.
Former second round wide receiver. So you can kind of get a lot of bang for buck here on offense. But how does it translate? That has its own distribution. So that's what makes it very difficult to bet.
This is a stark contrast of how anybody's talked about the Texans in the off season for at least the last two, three years. And that is reflected in pricing.
We're looking at the Texans at six and a half wins now. There were four, four and a half for the last thing know two years in a row pretty much going into the season with the expectation of tanking before the season really even starts. Basically back to back years of having renta head coaches.
But now there is a little bit of promise, but that is baked into the prices as well.
Texans are so bad they couldn't even pull off getting the number one pick. I give credit to Lovey Smith. Hey, if you're gonna fire me, I'm gonna do, I'm gonna do my job.
That great week 18 game here, sneaking out that one point victory. Verse the Colts otherwise would've had the number one pick. Yeah. Crazy.
So when we look at the consensus market power ranking for the Texans over the course of the season.
And as a reminder, our market consensus power ranking is an equal weighted ranking that looks at P f f e s P N 5 38 Football Outsiders and Rett their weekly power rankings for every team equal weight. Those to spit out a proxy for how the market is pricing this team. So
we're not over-relying on any single platform, any of their single biases.
And so we can see the green line is our drive quality model. The white line is the consensus market power ranking, and the Texans never really got any meaningful liftoff. There was a little bit of a head fake there at the beginning of the year, so they opened up the season versus the Colts that tie game, they were up like 20 to zero and then blew it.
And then covered a big heavy number versus the Broncos in the next week covered versus the Bears the next week got that three naps red, so they opened the season three and oh a t s competitive.
In all games. And we saw a jump in the consensus market. Power rings about five spots, even drive quality started to like what it was seeing from the Texans, but quickly corrected was not lettuce stray too materially. And then from there on the Texans really started to struggle.
This is also an interesting case of not being deluded into preseason expectations and how you view a team. I'm looking at the power rankings week one, the culture 11, the Broncos are 14. These are teams that were expected to be really good.
And obviously these were two of the worst teams in the N F L last year. And we certainly see it with, with the drive quality model where it spikes up and then quickly corrects when it's like, oh, actually we've learned more information. The, yeah, the Colton Broncos aren't that good. But it's an important reminder of viewing Yes. Priors are obviously very important but also adjusting. For, for kind of the context and what's actually happening during the current season. There's going to be another cult. There's going to be another Broncos.
Yeah. That signal in the noise right here.
Right. There's the interpretation that Houston was good, but they played bad teams. And that gets really tricky and really hard to quantify, especially at the beginning of the season when you have little data.
Yeah, early in the season you're not trying to evaluate just any particular team, but also then the teams that they played. Yeah. And you're trying to triangulate like who actually what?
What is signal? What is the noise?
I was just going to highlight
another general note at the outset, 2022 regular season. Obviously for all the reasons that Seth mentioned. With the new quarterback, the new coaching all around there isn't so much to really gather from the 2022 Texans in projecting the 2023 Texans 'cause the teams are gonna look totally different.
But I will say that whenever the market prices in, especially the team at 32, they're really never that bad. And, the market basically from week nine on just had the Texans as the worst team in the league and didn't really move off it for the rest of the year.
And drive quality kind of bounced around to them at 30 or, or, you know 29. But even looking there, This is a Texans team who had every incentive to tank, right? This was a rent to coach. This was not a team that was going to win. And still they were covering games at a pretty decent margin, which is like anytime the team is priced as of the worst and that bad, it's like, oh, the Texans a gaming against the Texans.
They probably better than the market is expecting to be. Yep. I'm not sure there's a, there's a clear parallel this year and maybe the Bucks or the Rams. I'm thinking about like the Dolphins, even in like 20 20, 20 21. When Brian Florence, it's like the Steven Ross is telling 'em to tank.
They're going to be teams. The market's gonna really sell off if they're never as bad as the market says they're,
yeah. That's what makes futures both intriguing and scary all at the same time.
Because the potential for Edge is probably the highest because it's very difficult to price for everyone, right? Whether you are the best professional or you're a book.
Yeah, the Texas were priced to be, again, historically bad, and in fact they remain competitive in most of these games. They only got their faces ripped off maybe twice, all season. We can see that the market just never wanted to buy into them.
They were three and 13 in one, so certainly bad record, but eight eight and one a t s. That means there was money to be made on this team over the course of the season. And we see their volatility, only one and a half spots. So on average, this team was only upgraded or downgraded by the market by one and a half spots per week, the market never wanted to buy into them.
Their average rank was 31st. Basically just a flat line over the course of the season. And we can see that again, even when we start to evaluate circa ranks. So we can start to look at, say, how often were participants in the circa millions contest actually betting on the Texans.
And we can see just a bunch of orange and red here. Only two times were the Texans a top 10 pick.
Basically the only time that the Texans did get their face ripped off, it's when the market bought into them. Oh, a top 10 pick, they don't cover by 10 points. Oh, the top three pick, they don't cover by 25 points.
And so these are the types of rhythms, the types of patterns that you wanna look at to evaluate where can there potentially be value alpha opportunity to lean into bad teams. You wanna lean into bad teams when the market isn't. For week one, week two, week three. 15th rank pick the 30th ranked pick and the 22nd rank.
Pick, cover, cover, cover.
The other thing too, right, is to remember that, you know, spreads are relative, right? It's really important that you quantify how bad because that's what the market is asking you to do.
When we say a team is 29th and we put an analytical number to that, well that still can be meaningful. In a marketplace to bet on them, because, you know, that could be a one or two point discrepancy with what they should be or what the market's giving you.
When I interact with betters and people on, on social media, the narrative based betting, like, this team's bad. This team's bad, right? But you're getting to the deeper point.
It's like, okay, but how bad, but how bad is really important, right? When you're betting in a margin of victory market.
Yep. Anytime the Texans were essentially a bottom, you know, five or six pick team in the marketplace.
30th ranked cover, 26th ranked cover, 30th ranked cover, I. 31st ranked cover.
The other thing we see here too is, trying to evaluate the volatility of a team and how competitive were they.
So we look at the max lead Max deficits, and so we can see like what was the max lead that the Texans held in any one single game. They had a lead in 12 games. So it's not like the game's starting off and they're down 20 to zip and they're just never competitive. So just another data point that we can look at to really say, Hey, the Texans hung in there last year and pretty much every single game.
And then we talk about again, like teams, like the Chiefs, you know, basically had to like go to almost to ot. There was ot, they did
go, it was ot and the week before with the the Cowboys, didn't they go the Cowboys with them? The Cowboys, yeah,
exactly Right. You got cowboys. They, they play 'em tough, eh, well, that, that was an aberration. Yeah. Then they play the chief's tough. Then they go and play the titan's tough on the road. Three decent performances in a row.
Now the market's like, you know what, maybe the Texans can cover, and everyone jumps in on the Texans, the third rank pick, and they get their faces ripped off time, weighted average margin too. Another way to like evaluate how competitive were they. Team, we look at how, what was the lead of that team multiplied by the time that they held that lead.
Something we call time-weighted average margin. Twa, m Twa, M 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. So in five games they had the lead more so than the other team. Despite them only winning three games. So a little bit of a outperformance there. So off season changes, I think most people are pretty familiar, obviously have CJ Strub also got Robert Woods from Division Rival Science, Jack Mason as well.
That's a nice upgrade to the offensive line. Lost Brandon Cooks. They didn't really lose really anyone outside of that. No, really like big, not notable names. Anything else?
Maybe it's a little bit of bias, you know, Bobby Slovak, a former P F F, so maybe there's a slight bias there.
But you know, Ricky Quarterback struggle, there's no doubt about it. If there were kind of a, a situation to, to start with I think CJ Strouds in one of the bitter ones talk about like pretty decent tackles.
REIT Tonsil and Titus Howard are both stout on the outside, especially in past protection. I'm not the biggest running back truther out there, but Damien Pierce is certainly a solid running back and I expect this offense to be an offense curated to CJ Strats strengths.
He was a very accurate passer in college. That doesn't necessarily mean it's gonna translate. We even have a recent example. Justin Fields from Ohio State also was an extremely accurate passer in college.
But if we're still projecting something, it's not as if, right? Like Lovey Smith is a known bad, you know, we can have some optimism towards Bobby slo. And I think CJ SRA kind of fits the bill of a guy who processes well is accurate and if the, the scheme around him, if they can kind of set up the run.
He has guys, you know, Nico Collins is a fine wide receiver. He is not great, but he's fine. You know, Robert fine. John Mechi could be good. Dalton Schultz fine receiver. These are not the same weapons they've been trotting out as in recent years. I think if you put it in context of the rest of the division there are reasons for optimism where I don't think there are for the cults and Texans, and if the Jags show some fragility, I think the Texans can sneak their way into competing for this division.
I totally agree with all that and one thing I think a lot about for all the rookie quarterback markets, I think when in these situations there's a ton of value betting their extreme under and their extreme over, because it's basically a distribution that has insane variance.
Quarterbacks can be good in college, and then it doesn't translate at all. There's obviously then exceptions to the rule. And the median of these distributions, I think are just really, really wide high.
variance distributions
You're making a good point honestly, of like, this is a team where you can look to the features market early in the season when you have a little bit more information, you can even see how they're kind of orchestrating their offense.
Are they just letting CJ Stroud throw the ball? Are they trying to design a alliance 2022 offense? I think, an important point, which is that the market's gonna be very slow to adjust to a team like this. 'cause they're gonna hang close for exactly this reason to the prior of like, oh, the Texans are bad.
Yeah. If we see even not in the production, but just the way they're kind of starting their offense and rookie quarterbacks do get better as they progress through the season. Sure. My take on the Texans is a cautious optimism and the time to buy is during the season.
You're right, Judah, in the sense that, I mean, they try to play to CJ Stroud's strengths, whatever those may be. I'm very bearish on CJ Stroud. I don't even see what would translate over into the N F L.
So if they take the ball out of his hands, play super conservative, lean into the strength of the offensive line, and turn out to be one of these teams that is more run heavy, leans on the strength of their defense, they can continue to be that sneaky team like they were last year. It's tough for me to see any sort of ceiling outcome unless the, the division really is just that bad. The Colts, if things go wrong, could easily be potentially the worst team in the division. But yeah, you have very tough start of the season too.
Yeah, I think the other interesting thing here, is they get to play the, the, the Titans much later in the season.
That increases the probability that potentially they play will Levis twice. Now that, that's an unknown, right? We don't know that, but that's an interesting artifact. This division with just having those rookie quarterbacks just makes this even more complicated.
' I just wanna make one more point on the schedule. I will say this team plays their kind of toughest games on the road.
Meaning if you're a team who's trying to sneak eight or nine wins, you wanna play more of those tossup games at home. I'm thinking games like the Steelers, the Broncos, the Browns, as opposed to games on who they're playing away, which is Ravens, Jaguars, jets, Bengals teams. They're probably not beating at home.
To kind of have that advantage of having the sum of the tossup teams at home is maybe half a win if, if things break right? But I still think is worth noting.
That's a good point. If you're gonna play a tough team, you're gonna lose the game. Might as well be on the road.
Yes, dealers and saints at home, bucks at home, cards at home.
All right, let's go on to the Colts. A team that a lot of people are bullish on. We see kind of same profile as what we're talking about from the Texans last season.
So a putrid offense and a league average defense.
I mean,
We were low on them last year and I, I don't know, you know, some stats, you know, they gave up 60 sacks. I don't wanna be too hyperbolic that that's gonna happen again, but I'm not seeing that they made some crazy changes there.
It's still a really big question of why that offensive line struggled last year. 'cause they were one of the best offensive line the year before. But I, I'm just, it
to me it always an overrated offensive line. I, I, sure.
Okay. Well, I mean, I no longer 'cause they, I mean, gosh, last year they, they, in your, in your assessment, they, they played how you thought they should have played.
They were horrendous. I would be very cautious here. I mean, you combine a horrible offensive line with a true rookie that, quite frankly played very little in college. That can get bad very fast. Then you combine that with a new coaching staff. There's no continuity there.
If it's bad early, then do they even think about trying to win games a little bit because there's, you know, you're then building for the future. I'm not gonna bet this, but I'd be searching, sniffing around, win no games, win one game
If that offensive line combined with a rookie goes really bad
I think they're plus 1400, plus 1500 to have worst record. Worst record.
I was gonna say, I'm not gonna be hyperbolic, hyperbolic at all. They're 15 to one and I'm going to bet the worst record. I'm right here with you.
I mean, defense was fine last year. I think this defense is going to be an absolute train wreck this year.
Yeah, it could just blow up, right? And it would blow up fast.
You can see the cols were mispriced at the beginning of the season. So open the season, almost a top 10 power ranked team. And ended the season as one of the worst teams in the N F L.
And because there was such a violent repricing of this team from what people thought they were gonna be to what they actually were and that not flipping overnight, we can see their seven day rolling volatility was five and a half spots. So a team that was actually quite volatile over the course of the season as they looked bad and.
Betters were resistant to downgrading them and then maybe show a little bit of life and kept having these like bursts of optimism before then selling off into the end of the season as everyone kind of just threw their hands up instead of, wow, this team really is bad.
You know, not covering the last five out of six games. We can see the drive quality, sold off on them hard and was always more bearish on the Colts than the market ever was. When we even saw those bursts of optimism from the market.
Drive quality did not see the same thing. It continued to stay flatlined if anything. Kept, kept bleeding lower and lower, was not romanced by whatever the broader market was potentially seeing in the cults. Again, drive quality, really hit a home run on the Colts last season.
It's tough to not bring with you all of the things from last season, but it's difficult to understand what this team is building on.
'cause I'm kind of seeing that a little bit of hype in the market as well. Like No, no. Like the Colts have a good defense and like Anthony Richards who can be really good. But. I just personally don't see where that comes from.
I mean, this team cor, I mean, I think it's coming from this. Yeah.
Losing Isaiah Rogers to Suspension and Stefan Gilmore, absolutely huge. These are two guys who. Graded in my cornerback metrics. Both top 20 and separation allowed the replacements for them, which is even more important than Delta is.
A bunch of, you know, Kenny Moore was an absolute disaster in coverage. They've got the second round Juju Brents, you know, starting on the outside. Complete unknown, no safety help. Don't really have much of a pass rush at all. Deforest, Buckner's a, a fine player. I mean, maybe qui pay emerges pass rush has been a major issue for them the entire time.
You've got weak links up the wazoo on defense. And, and on the offensive side the Anthony Richardson take, I would just say like, he's so raw, he's an incredible prospect, no doubt. But to your earlier points about how do we project rookie quarterbacks, I actually think he's got a much lower projection and not even such a high chance of reaching ceiling just because of how raw he is.
Right? This is a guy who among 200 qualifiers last year in inaccuracy was a hundred fourth. This is not an accurate quarterback. He's played very little to your point. And the narrative I'm hearing is like Shane Steans gonna take, you know, Justin Herbert 2.0. Not to say that he's not a, a great coordinator, but like this is not turning Anthony Richardson into a 2.0 guy.
He's extremely inaccurate and has a, a while to go as a, as a passer. I can see kind of Brett gearing up to take his, his pro Richardson take and I I see the Florida Gator, the alma mater bias.
Oh. Or Florida guy. He won't back down here.
No, I mean, I know. Okay. But he does not perform well under pressure.
You'd think that he would. Given the fact that he's so athletic. But yeah, he's as raw as it comes. And I think it's pretty consensus market view that this is a guy that has very wide ranges. It could potentially be one of the biggest busts, but if there is this kinda growing, maturing, developing, evolving, then you could potentially unlock something better and greater than Patrick Mahomes.
The thing, what was so frustrating last year, watching him at Florida is he would have like some amazing plays, just in awe.
But just how poorly he would play for long pockets of time. So I'm not here to defend Anthony Richardson or a bullish view on the Colts. I would definitely say that their range of outcomes skews to the downside.
I could see the Cols being a top three n f l draft pick again next year.
I think the major market view and why I disagree with it, is conflating the long-term view of Richardson as a raw prospect. I have no idea what Richardson will be in 2, 3, 4 years time.
I think it's a lazy analysis for someone to kind of say, oh, he's got a wide range of outcome trajectory for his career, therefore that will happen during the season.
No, that's not true. If anything, and and again, it gets to the point that I was saying with CJ sra, he's put in a kind of terrible situation. This team does not really have wide receiver talent. Their tackles are terrible. The offensive line as a, as a whole at least, was pretty bad last year. Like, where are the reasons for optimism for this year.
Yeah, sure. I'll have a couple of great plays and I'll show up on the highlight reel. And you want that to be more consistent, but like, why is that gonna happen in year one?
Yeah. Best case scenario I think is a last year Justin Fields type performance, like that's the best case scenario for Anthony Richardson, the same. And that still leads to likely only
any number one. I think that's a fantastic point. Our expectation should be Justin Fields's rookie year is probably like 65th percentile outcome for Richardson,
I'm convinced. I'm betting it. I'm betting Colt's lowest amount of wins.
We're aligned. All right. Titans, look at the earned drive points. Offense and defense again. When we looked at the range of outcomes, still in that same quadrant a bottom tier offense and average defense.
When we look at how the team performed over the course of 2022, again, similar theme. Had some good games, played tough for some very tough teams, but then ultimately collapsed down the stretch as we see lost 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 games in a row to close the season. And didn't cover in six out of seven of those, which was in stark contrast of that week three to week 11 period, when they had this ramp up, covered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 games in a row.
So this was the type of team that if you rode them at the right time, you could have made a ton of money. Riding 'em up and then selling them on the way down. Seven day rolling volatility, six and a half spots. Record went seven and 10, went nine and six a t s.
Average rank over the course of the season was 15 and a half, so pretty much right down the middle. As a generally average team, a team that ramped up looked potentially pretty good for half the season and then looked miserable the second half of the season. Anything from you guys in this?
Tann Hill injury?
I think this is a big thing for me. It was a pretty big drop off. They had to bring in I forget his name, but I think he wasn't even on the roster. I think week 17 or 18 against the Jags.
So, yeah, look, I You're gonna The last two weeks? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
What I
would say is, Tana Hill did play 12 games, and when Willis did play, especially in the middle of that season, week eight, week nine you know, put in like, you know, a justifiably good performance. I remember he, he actually had a few throws in there that kind of opened my eyes like, whoa, wow, look, maybe this guy has some promise.
And they didn't really allow him to throw the ball too much, in fact. But he played tough first. The Texans on the road played tough first. The chiefs on the road, that game had a touchdown lead in that game.
But how much is that? Is game plan? I remember our model liked the titans in that game with, with him being a backup.
Seth, to, to your point, We like to talk about scripted versus non-scripted plays.
Hmm. And this was something that we constantly, constantly referenced with the Titans because they were so far in the top left of the graph, which was teams who were like elite, scripted, but terrible afterwards. Which speaks to your point about the coaching staff, and if you look at whatever, if you now create some chart of like first quarter versus the rest, it's like the Titans were awesome in the first quarter and terrible after Todd Downing no longer the the oc it should be noted.
Mm-hmm. I will say though, Brett, we talk about this all the time, about E D P having most of its signal in the short term. I love this chart here, which is the Titans earned drive points on the first eight games and nine games. And it was the, those kind of middle games where the Titans were showing up on the scoreboard and winning games, but their E D P did not budge.
It was the same 1.5 for the first half and second half kind of suggesting the defense is more responsible for the upward trajectory in the middle of the season point is the offense was really bad even when the score was suggesting that actually they were kind of turning for the better.
Yeah. When we look at the active points, negative 18 points, and it's a hundred percent attributable to the offense, so that underperformance, and again, for a reminder active points is basically what we look at is in excess of what the betting market expects the team to score. How much more points do they score on offense?
That would be active points. How many more points does the defense either give up or not give up relative to betting market expectations? That excess is active points. You can give us a sense of how well does this team outperform or not. Betting market expectations. But I think also to your point, Judah, we can see, I mean, this team, and if we had this broken down more granularly by quarter we'd probably see a lot of this is in the first and second quarters.
We see that the Titans had a lead of a touchdown or more in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 games. They had a touchdown or more lead, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 games. They had double digit leads. And so just to show how this team was very competitive, especially in the first half, which for us who really like to lean into volatility and live betting, they offer so many ripe opportunities to really take advantage of that team profile and that team volatility.
If there was one high level kind of observation of, looking back at 2022, what can we learn going into 2023? And that's exactly that of the, the team tendency of this team would go up and we would just continue to hammer that angle live again.
Yeah. In general, there's a lot of noise here, but there's a big difference between noise and outliers. Teams that you can just kind of assume like, oh, you know, in general that's not sticky. Teams that are bad in the first quarter aren't necessarily gonna be bad. That's kind of randomness. No, I actually think this is particular to the titans and their identity and, and the team tendencies that kind of compose them.
Like they're going to be bad. They're going to be those examples that are outliers and not noise.
So off season changes, of course, the headliner signing Deandre Hopkins just a few weeks ago also signed Andre Alert on the offensive line. Signed to Arden Key, replacing Bud Dupre. And then Tim Kelly, new office of coordinator, which you hinted at as well.
Judah, I don't know if I don't know much about him. Any, any, anybody got any insight on Tim Kelly what the potential impact there is gonna be? No. No. I
didn't, I didn across the board. I missed that.
Definitely something to note. Especially for an organization that kind of gets it's calling card as you know, stable. Mike Vrabel, the Mike Vrabel effect. They fired a g m, they lost their oc. There's kind of some all
justifiable though. I mean that GM traded, AJ Brown
goes against the, geez, the sort of orthodoxy of like the stability of the Titans.
I think it's because they did a little bit of a head fake there of going against what Vrabel wanted to do, wanted to start this whole rebuild. And certainly from the Deandre Hopkins signing they don't wanna go in that direction.
And one of the things I warned about last season as well was just Mike Rabel, man, a lot of bears on the Titans pretty much like every single off season because the team is usually just not very sexy. It's the A f C South, but Vrabel just always maximizes the talent from his players. Yeah, agree. And you get a team there that can always be potentially sneaky.
especially again from a betting perspective and kind of really lines up with what we've. Talked about by a lot of these, these A f C South teams,
I mean, Is this the same mistake twice in a row? Overpaying an old wide receiver, they did it with Julio Jones and to me, they're repeating the past here at Deandre Hopkins.
This idea that they just went and landed this like game changer. I don't know that to be
true. I forgot about the Julio Jones year Yeah. Experiment. Because it was like such a non needle mover, just totally, yeah.
I don't think Hopkins, I think had like one reception against man coverage. In his last like nine games last year. The guy can't separate anymore. I don't think he's a, he's a needle mover. I will say though, Seth, what you just said, that conversation you and Brett had is almost exactly the same as what we had last year when Brett was trying to talk me off.
I loved Titans under last year. Loved, loved, loved.
And what was it, what do you remember
what it was saying? But you were also taking an extreme view. You were saying that they're gonna be the worst team in the N F L. That was Midseason and that's really what I was arguing. That was
mid-season. That was Midseason.
But Brett was like, there's the Mike Vrabel effect and I was like, there's the mike and a
half last year, year. They were nine and a half last year.
Nine and a half. I took, I took it all under seven and a half. That was one of my Okay. My favorite Betts. But that's still the same conversation even though we're kind of starting to see the slightest bit of fragility and a Titans team that won seven games last year, not nine or 10.
And I think we see a continued. Trajectory downward.
You gotta mention the offensive line. Yeah. Which I think has to project Brett, we should get our, you know, offensive line rankings going just as a, as a reference point. I'm looking at their PFF grades. They don't have anyone graded above a, a 65.
And I think that's particularly bad for a. Quarterback in Ryan Tannahill who kind of needs this protection, right? It's one thing for Patrick Mahomes to have a bad offensive line where he's so good spinning out scrambling away from pressure and making throws in the pocket.
Ryan Tohill is not that quarterback. He's going to take a lot of Saxon. He's had an extremely high sac rate, you know, each of the last four or five years, and that only gets worse when the offensive line projects even worse.
We were talking about a lot last off season about the wear and tear on Derrick Henry and that this could potentially be that cliff year. Yeah. That didn't end up materializing.
He still put together another good year. Looked as good as ever. Again, still had like some dud games, but then other games where breaks out and destroys the defense. But now we're another year of that same wear and tear. Yeah. And now with a worse offensive line. Is this the year that we see the fall off of, you know, the big bruising back?
One of the last really, truly great kind of old school running backs in the league.
This team is the trickiest to me because you can also see an outcome here where you have the rookie quarterbacks play bad. And then, you know, have a little bit of veteran play. Can they win eight games? You maybe. I'm not going to bet titans, I, I just see no's no real reason compelling one way or the other.
I think you're right there because again, Judah was making his bear case last year pounding the table on the Bear case bet Alt under seven and a half.
Now they're priced at seven and a half. Yeah. Flat for the market price. So there's already been a material repricing the cracks that we've talked about in this team. Is being appreciated by the broader market. When we look at the 2023 look at spreads, this is something very unusual for a Titans team. You're looking at pretty much underdogs across the board except for six games and three of those games being verse division, opponents, COLS, and two against the Texans. And deep underdogs, deep underdogs to the dolphins, to the Jags, to the Ravens, to the Browns, Bengals Steelers.
And those are gonna be some tough games. And that's not even talking about the openers verse, the Saints and the Chargers. So this is gonna be like a, seems like a very difficult schedule despite the strength of schedule saying that it's 24th. Again, being elevated a little bit by those backend games, and things like that, Seth you talked about at, at the beginning, works the other way around is those easy games might not even matter at that point in time if they've already been beaten and bruised and potentially change their strategy and are no longer trying to be competitive.
Yeah, a hundred percent. This team is, your guess is as good as mine. And it's probably right around that number seven.
Yeah, the one thing I'll say, this team was a severe funnel defense funnel, meaning a team that forces teams to pass the ball. They had the number one rush, e p a I believe last year or however rush run efficiency. They were certainly at the top of the league. That projects to be a, a very good unit. Again. They're returning the same D line.
The secondary was a disaster though. And that combo is horrible if you're a a defense in the N F L and wonderful, if you're betting, you know, SGPs attacking that because this is a team that opponents will pass against them and likely with success 'cause they're not even going to bother running the ball.
I'm already building in my, you know, Derek car Chris ve maybe even throwing a little Rashid shahid stack for week one. On the backs of that. And that's something you just pay attention to, especially early in the season. Are the titans kind of continuing on the same trajectory that the defensive personnel is very similar of this really, really good run defense, but really poor us past defense?
I could see this Titans opening the season looking kind of red hot, especially versa defense that isn't as good as it was last year.
New quarterback, new system, getting right for the Saints and it's a total mirage, but they put in that very good one
week one. Yeah. And we talked about this with, with with Houston, right? What's the actual signal? Is the signal that the market thinks Titans are good or that, that the saints are bad?
Right? And, and that's, we don't know.
All right, let's move on to one of the hottest betts last season. The Jacks. There was a lot of people that liked the Jacks last season. We liked the Jacks. Last season, it definitely wasn't an off market view and for half the season, if not more, it looked like, oh, I guess we're we're wrong.
Even though they were always on the verge of like potentially looking good. And as we will show you know, drive quality was well above market on them. And we see when we look at the earn drive points, we see them in that top right quadrant looking good from both an offensive and a defense perspective really coming through and, and on why we liked them.
And, and even as they were losing those games again, those were games that, the Eagles game out to a 14, nothing lead collapse end up losing by eight. The one that was really tough was that next one thinking, you know there's gonna be a bounce back.
The Jags have looked really good four games in a row. And they put together probably the worst performance of the season, that week five.
Game at home verse the Texans as a touchdown favorite, and they score six points. And then come back and lose again outright and don't cover. Versus a team like the Colts that was continuing to get downgraded by the market. Then they come back home, lose again to the Giants.
Then lose again verse Denver, another team that the market is continuing to downgrade and now you're looking at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5 and a half games straight of this team.
Kind of potentially toying with looking good, but just inevitably either fumbling the ball on the one yard line or doing some dumb penalty or throwing a pick on a critical drive, otherwise, just looking like crap. Then it all turns around mid game. We called it live. When we're live betting, we, you know, we live, trade every single Sunday game trade.
If you haven't checked it out, check it out on Twitch. We live bet the games from kickoff all the way to the end of the day. We show all our trades, we make probably 50 trades every Sunday. You can follow right along with us. So definitely check it out. And we got one of the clips talking about Judah, essentially calling the bottom on the Jags mid-game in that Raiders one.
Yeah, that was, that was a fun one to remember. I will say though, looking back on this season, Brett, I actually don't have the same recollection of the Jags being a hot pick. Last year, I seem to remember everyone was kind of high on the, the cults and Titans. And the Jags were like a little lukewarm.
Now, maybe I'm Galaxy branding this, but I'm looking at it and saying, okay, the market has kind of adjusted markedly down for the cults and the Titans. I'm not sure if the Jags optimism increased. I think people are asking themselves like, what actually changed? Like, okay, Trevor Lawrence is a little bit better.
But like what actually changed for the Jaguars? And I have, you know what I said about Joe Burrow last year in my head just coming again, which is when I'm looking at the Jaguars, I'm saying Trevor Lawrence got much better from year one to year two. Who's to say he's not gonna get so much better from year two, year three?
I'm like, we'll be looking back like, oh yeah, of course. Trevor Lawrence MVP candidate. Yeah, for sure. And it's like people are now looking and there's still a bunch of hesitation around the Jags. It's like, okay, like how much do they really show us? Is this about the Jags getting better or is this about their division getting worse?
And I'm like, no. This is 100% about the Jag getting better and I'm definitely projecting a big leap from year two to year three. If you look at the last, you know, seven, eight games, Trevor Lawrence really kind of emerged. I see that as the trend.
That's the signal that's gonna come forward. And you know, when we do the 2024, people will be like, okay, the Jags were the sexy pick. That's not really true. They're at a nine and a half win total. I think that's mostly others looking at it as like, okay, the other division opponents kind of suck.
Like the Jags are the TT B, it's supposed to making a bullish Jacks case. And I think there's a clear bullish Jacks case and that has to do with Trevor Lawrence.
Yeah. They entered the bi-week three and seven. Right. That's quite interesting.
They, when you talk about field goal, luck. They had 26 outta 27 field goals made against them. That's pretty gnarly. They've added Calvin Ridley strength, the schedules, you know, median, you know, at 12th overall. But 26th worst offensive line that's the Achilles heel. When you're saying what could stop him from making that leap. Maybe that's it, right?
Yeah. I think, and to answer your question about how to quantify it, it's, it really depends on the quarterback. I think I might be on an island here which is, as I was just saying before about like offensive line, it means one thing to, you know, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, if you look at Lawrence's time to throw it actually yeah.
Really decreased, which I think is a sign of his maturity. And if you look at the percentage of throws that go to open receivers as opposed to tight windows he's clearly on the trajectory there. I'm pretty sure he actually led the league in, in percentage throws to open receivers, which by the way the Jaguars, and this gets to the Calvin Ridley point, I don't think had a particularly good wide receiver unit.
Everyone likes to think like, okay, Christian Kirk and Za Jones, Evan Ingram. Why don't we take the expectations we had preseason realize that like, no. We were like, okay, these are a bunch of like fine receivers, and all of a sudden it's like, oh. We're looking at it now as they're, of course, St.
Jones, Evan Ingram, you know, top 10, tight end Christian Kirk. Great receiver. It's like, I think that has to do with Trevor Lawrence added in a guy who independently of Trevor Lawrence, Calvin Redley tearing it off by, by most separation metrics, like I think he's a legit number one that adds an entire new dimension to the offense.
And say your point about the offensive line and the Achilles, it doesn't really matter if Lawrence is getting rid of the ball really quickly. Yeah. He's getting rid of it in two and a half seconds, and like there isn't enough quick pressure, it's not gonna make much of a difference. And when he does have protection, he'll be able to actually have a real downfield weapon in Calvin Ridley, who was a lot better than any of the receivers they had last year.
Yeah. The decision making of the quarterback themselves plays a big, big role, if not more
of a role.
These numbers are pretty stark. It was a 2.88 time to throw last year and 2.5 this year. That's a very quick turnaround, especially kind of maintaining the same adot. He was still getting it down 6.9 yards which was the same as his rookie season, but cut down on the time to throw, which I think just points to it matters less for Lawrence.
He's going to be making the right reads and doing so quickly. And that's the sign of
growth
in the quarterback. And second year for him, but second year in this coaching staff and offensive coordinator. Right. Like, so, what is the cause and effect of that next step, that could be it, right? This, this is more like his actual second season with urban Meyer, you know, experiment kind of going off the rails. I ran some simulations with our number earlier. We, we put this at minus 1 65 for them to win, to win the division.
Fanduels got it at minus 1 55. So, you know, that's, there's some healthy value here.
What scares me the most about this market is that it is so unequivocally, everyone's just like, no-brainer, duh. And those scare the shit outta me now. When you're quantifying it, and you could say, why, you know, I feel better about it, but I don't know.
It terrifies me when a whole market is just because if that was the case, this number should not still be sitting at 1 55. It would've moved, right? It would, and it would keep moving if it was so slam dunk. Do
you buy the argument that I tried to make about sourcing that this actually, this number has less to do with the bullish case on the Jags and more to do with the Titans and cults been worse because I think that answers your question, and that's why I'm not afraid to go all in on the Jags.
It's just like I'm sourcing this as teams aren't bullish enough on the Jags, and I think that's kind of captured Right. Certainly in the sentiment stuff you've done, and anecdotally what I've seen, it's like, oh, the Jags are fragile. I don't think any of that matters when we're talking about a guy who's gonna contend for an mvp.
Yeah. Who caress like that stuff's on the side a nine and a half win total for an MVP candidate. That's fair.
Yeah.
You know, usually, usually betting isn't this easy. At least I find it, you know, you know, you gotta dig for value usually. I mean, futures markets, I find are the weirdest ones. Like we were saying when we first kicked off. Like, this is where you potentially can find the biggest edges . I think this, and live markets.
But it's concerning if everybody that I know isn't quantifying anything also comes to the same conclusion.
Yeah. But I think Seth, everyone is in fact thinking that thing.
That everyone thinks that everyone else thinks that the Jags are definitely gonna win this division. So they actually then look elsewhere. Yeah. And there's enough narratives around the other teams to convince yourself to to lean into that potential ceiling outcome because you wanna fade the consensus view that you think everyone else is piling in to the Jag.
Do you have the Anthony Richards, Shane Steem combo ceiling outcome? With the Colts you have all, everything that we talked about, the Texans, you know, and then of course Titans and Vrabel and Hopkins and Derrick Henry and Tana Hill, and this rebound, and they're actually now underpriced and now the Jags are priced three games higher than they were last year.
So it's priced in, oh, I gotta fade the Jags. Judah, what I was gonna tell you is if you took your handicap around the saints, I. For anyone who listened to our N F C South preview, how you describe the Saints is actually how I see the Jags in this division and in this season where this team could potentially go 13 wins.
No problem in this division. And given their schedule and just given the talent and potentially that next step that you could see from Trevor Lawrence, who we've talked about before, shows flashes of just absolute brilliance, could end this season as a top three quarterback in the league. A true superstar, when people are thinking about superstars, everyone's think Mahomes, Herbert Burrow, and like Lawrence is always like kind of somewhat in that vicinity, but it's always like that, that next tier.
And I think everyone realizes Lawrence could elevate into that, but as betters, you need to anticipate. So you need to bet on it before that happens. And I think there's still opportunity this season that the Jags are still not properly priced because there's enough attractive alternatives that are helping keep this price somewhat lower than it otherwise substantively
should be.
Yeah. I think those are all good points.
Brett, I just want to, how many times do we have we seen in recent years addition of a, dare I say, a lead wide receiver.
Takes quarterback to the next stage. Yep. I don't know. True. AJ Brown, Jalen Hertz, Stefon digs, Josh Allen, Mark Chase, Joe Burrow, all of these guys who saw massive leaps in efficiency. Tyreek Hill to a tanga, I loa saw massive leaps in efficiency with an addition of receiver. I think that matters way more than any potential losses of Juwan Taylor on the offensive line.
The math backs it up. That's the thing for me. Just because, you know, market agrees with, with a projection doesn't mean it's a bad projection.
Right.
Well, I think also some of the bearish case that is helping put a ceiling on Jags euphoria is because I think a lot of people do realize that the Jags had a lot of cracks. They had two shots at the Chiefs and they were never really competitive in either one of those games. They were still down by almost 30 points to the Chargers.
Yeah. They came back. But if that game doesn't go that way, you look like, wow, this team is not even close to ready for the big time quite yet. But if you actually start to clean up some of those types of performances that were just clear immaturity. This is the first year in the system.
We have a young quarterback, we have new wide receivers, we have an entirely new system that you're gonna get these types of performances. And as Judah talked about, it started to get cleaned up in the second half of the season. One of the things I wanna call out is using the market as one of your signals to help influence how you wanna position your betts.
Not looking at just pure fundamentals and stats and traditional analytics that everyone else is looking at. As we talked about, the Jags kind of started off hot and then had that miserable performance here over the course of that seven weeks where just kind of were just.
Persistently frustrating betters. And when we look at the circuit ranks, that's exactly when they were the most popular team. The number one pick the number one, pick the number eighth, pick the number. seventh, pick the number, second pick. And then it's right when the market sells off on them is when they kind of bounce and kind of lean and start to actually put together some of those performances.
But they never were a top 10 pick again after week eight until the last game of the season. The market never truly bought into them, were butt hurt after a good five six. She lackings from the Jaguars. Dan in the chat, is definitely on almost every single one of our game trades feels the pain on a tick by tick basis with us as we trade and bet on the jaguars over the course of the season.
And can definitely vouch for that. But just another way of trying to again, use the market as a potential contrarian signal when making your overall decision making. Yeah.
Opposed to the previous teams we've talked about where there wasn't really much signal from 2022 to 2023.
I think. First and foremost, important to read the e p a numbers of Justin. Obviously, e p a is a contextual stat with all those caveats from the post London game, Trevor Lawrence, e p a, 16.9, 11.6, 14.4, negative 2.2, 19.26, 0.8 5.9, negative 5.8, 4.3. That is a much different quarterback than if you look at the beginnings. If you're going to make a argument against the Jaguars which I think is certainly valid and kind of, we have them in the top right corner in our drive quality graph.
This was definitely propped up by a lot of back quarterbacks, yes, they probably overachieved on defense.
I think a lot of that has to do with the schedule they plead. I would not be surprised to see this as a unit that is on towards the lower half especially. They didn't really make any drastic personnel changes. But put that into context. Everything else we said, none of that matters when you have a nine and a half win total and a quarterback that very well can be in the M V P conversation.
The difference between a 12th defense and a 20th defense, probably not meaningful, but if there is going to be an Achilles heel, I will say it'll probably be that the defense totally imploded.
I don't think we need to cover too much on the off-season changes. Again, they actually didn't make a lot of moves this off season.
They made all those huge moves last year. Again, spending like the most of anybody over the course of the off season. And this off season's been pretty quiet as Brandon McManus is one of the key additions because there were so few and
as you talked about, Judah, just really excited about how the addition of Calvin Ridley can potentially elevate and unleash the full potential of Trevor Lawrence. So when we look at the 2023 look ahead spreads again, favored in most of the games, but certainly not all of them.
There's a relatively tough schedule. Again, looking at the futures implied strength of schedule. It's about 20th. You got a tough game versus the Chiefs and the bills in week two and week five. And then have a pretty tough back-to-back road games into the Buy with the Saints and the Steelers. Then come out of the buy verse, the Niners and then a tough three game stretch week 13, 14, 15. Got Bengals, Browns and Ravens. So gonna be a test there late in the season for the Jacks.
I think we're gonna get a sense of what tier the Jaguars are really in on how they play the Chiefs, the bills, the Niners, which is like, kind of to your point, is this a team that's competitive in their games against the the Chiefs, or are they a team that can kind of hang with the Chargers and come back and win as sort of this tier two team?
If Lawrence is going to be the M V P and if the Jaguar are really going to take that jump into the tier one team who can legitimately contend for a Super Bowl, you're going to want to see how they play those early games. I don't care about the outcome, it's more about how the, the, the game flow of those I will definitely be looking there.
Assuming all else kind of goes according to plan. I, I can see myself betting a Super Bowl or, or deep future. Just on how they played those, those early games against the, the Chiefs and Bills and maybe the Niners too.
For those who are optimistic about the Jags you definitely wanna see an improved performance and the ability to hang at least in those early games versus the Chiefs and the bills. But what I would see is also that I'm glad those are in the front half of the season potentially can be some learning experiences there.
Especially potentially two tougher games with Saints and Steelers, both on the road leading into the buy. Again, that could potentially beat them up a little bit. And then how do they respond coming out of that buy in, playing the Niners in Jacksonville, that's a situationally a great spot for them to put together a good performance versus the Niners, you'd want to see that.
And this is where I really want to see something good from them, which is. The Bengals, Browns, Ravens, that three game stretch in the tail end of the season. If you can get through that looking pretty decent, then this is Super Bowl potential team.
Because then you close on Bucks, Panthers, titans, win, win, win.
Alright, good stuff guys. Thanks Seth for staying 45 minutes past your bedtime, I assume. Happy to
do it. No, no, no. Yeah, no, I have, I have a early morning, but it was, it was a blast. It was,
you got a hot date and we delayed you?
No, no. Yeah. Hot date to my bed, but no, no, it was it was a good, it was a good time to hang out. Thanks for
having me.
Seth, before you go, yeah. Now that we've gone through an hour 45 discussion, what betts are we eyeing?
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Has anything changed?
I will be betting the Colts to have the worst record. I wasn't strong take to take the Titans over seven and a half. I just think they could mess up and accidentally win eight.
I'm not gonna bet that. I ran our numbers with the sim. It shows a little bit of value on the Jags. To be honest. I would rather take the same amount of money and bet the Jags to win Super Bowl or the a f C with the strategy that they're gonna overperform and that ticket has the chance to go two, three x and then I just cash out.
I'm with you that the right tail is the way to bet the Jaguars. I'm gonna take the division just 'cause I think the value of the other three teams, I don't see how any of them wins it.
All right. Thanks everyone for joining. And we'll see you next week.
Do the NFC North. That's the closing bell.
