Episode Transcript
Welcome everyone to the NFL Week 5 edition of the Sunday Night Tilt. We have an old friend, Corey Larson @clars24 on Twitter, subbing for Judah tonight. One of the things that Judah and I talked about on our Week 5 Market Outlook was we had very low conviction this week.
Didn't really feel strongly about any specific matchups. It was very hard, not just to find five picks for Circa but to find one or two picks that we really liked. And it came through in performance.
This was definitely our worst week season to date. We went 1-3-1. After I found out that the Chargers were minus two in Circa, I was even more on tilt. All day, I was under the impression that they were minus one and half. So the fact that they won by two, I was like so excited that we got it out just by a sliver.
And then we had Bucs, which I was excited about for most of the day. "Oh, this is at least one pick we don't have to sweat". And then had to sweat it in the end and ended up not covering. And then our only non sweat was the Bills at minus 14. They just smoked the Steelers. And then the Jags wasn't competitive, really. Not at least covering that seven.
And then we tried to be a little bit contrarian on Lions. Way too cute. Way too cute. And I got my face ripped off live betting the Lions as well. Pretty much lost every single bet that I tried to make, anticipating some sort of comeback or even score any points. How about you, Corey? How did you do?
Are you on tilt or did things work out the way you expected them to?
I'm in agreement with you that this was definitely going into the week. I just didn't have much. I liked in terms of the contest. The Buccaneers, I think at eight and a half was the only one that I was like, I truly like this side and would put money on it at that number.
So I was with you on the Bucs and then I also was on the Lions, which same kind of thoughts on that. The pure numbers in that game for me, I was making it a lot closer to a pick. And obviously there's a lot of different matchup advantages you gotta look at too.
And then outside of that, I was on the Vikings. I felt good about that one early. I did take the seven and a half there and it was
seven and a half in the contest,
right? Yep. Yep. I had bet that at six and six and a half, so that felt good to get the seven.
And then I'd had the Jets and lucked out in some concussion luck there. And then I think the last side I took is the Bengals currently, which I don't think's looking too good right now. So I'm looking at a one in four week right now after I've been four and one or three and two every single week so far.
So definitely my worst week in terms of sides.
Yeah. And likewise. Yeah, we are, we're four and one to start the season. I've been three and two every week since. Just anecdotally thinking, I've never really lucked out where I have no feel for this week.
I make the picks and wow, I ended up going four and one Wow. Crazy. Or three and two. And it would be curious to experiment when you're going into those weeks where you definitively have very little conviction if you just faded yourself.
One of the reasons why I liked the Bucs, it ultimately wasn't gonna make our top five, in fact. But one of the reasons why I did slide it in was because I had a very high belief that it was gonna be at top five consensus play.
And so I just wanted to slide it in for that fact alone to say, let's just ride with the market. So this is gonna be a week where we don't think we're necessarily gonna do very well, so let's just ride the market then. So we're not gonna gain a lot, We're not gonna lose a lot. It's not gonna be an alpha week, but at least we're not gonna lose ground.
So that worked, but for that purpose. And then also, I guess I'm a little bit even more on Tilt, cuz I think I took the Cardinals out.
Oh
yeah. Midweek we liked the Cardinals. In fact it was our cover play for the week. And that one falls on me.
One of the things I wanted to pull up here too was, you're talking about how you think, some scores don't necessarily feel like that was the case. And I haven't QC'd this at all. I literally just ran it now, but this is week five. Our drive quality scoreboard, which of looking at the quality of drives and assigning them earned points and is not necessarily always gonna be a true state of reality, but it of can give us a little bit, closer to really how competitive, some of these matchups really were.
And in this, we have the Bucs, squeaking it out by eight. So a little bit more but maybe still otherwise didn't necessarily deserve the cover. Looking at the Patriots Lions, we had at least the Lions earned legitimate five points in our perspective. Patriots 18. So still definitively beat the Lions.
Jags lost we have so that was consistent. We have Browns beating the Chargers. Jets smoke the dolphins. Giants definitively beating the Packers Bills even more so beating the Steelers, 50 to five. Seahawks closer than the final score actually would've ended up covering it, about a field goal closer.
And then Titans, Washington. Pretty close to what the final score was. Anything else you wanna highlight from this week?
I think the one game that really sticks out to me, which I'm not sure how the market's gonna totally take it, is the Cowboys Rams.
I think that game is a much better representation of how bad the Rams are than how good the Cowboys are. I think some people might look at that and really start upgrading the Cowboys. I think they do deserve some respect.
But again, you look at really what Cooper Rush did in that game and just, he did not do a lot there. I've been low on the Rams and I think this is just further proof that this Rams team just isn't an elite team. I know a lot of people still were considering Rams, a fringe top five team even going into this week, I believe, and for sure going into the week versus the Niners.
But I think that's slowly starting to really show through. And I think the takeaway from this is just really how bad the Rams are and not, necessarily that the Cowboys are a good team.
I think that's a good call out, Cooper Rush 10 of 16 for a hundred yards also was stacked three times, Pollard and Elliot t both ate on the ground. They had the defensive score. The one thing that annoys me about both the Rams Cowboys matchup and the Niners Panthers game is the consensus narrative handicap for those games, just played out to perfection. That the Cowboys pressure was going to really disrupt the Rams offense.
And pretty much that was the reason, like a Parson's gonna just destroy Matt Stafford in this Ram's office isn't already clicking, and their offensive line is just extremely vulnerable.
And that's exactly what happened in this game. Cowboys I was a top five consensus pick in Circa. Same thing with the Niners and Panthers. I think one of the things that a lot of people were trotting out was like the Niners had, one of the best defenses Panthers had one of the worst offenses from like an EPA perspective.
And it just played out to perfection. And it wasn't anything that I wanted to necessarily try to fade, but I feel like it was just priced probably more so into the line than even it was worth. But just played that storyline perfectly.
And then when I'm looking at Bucs and Falcons, I Bucs are up 21 zip, in control of that game. And then over the last 20 minutes of gameplay, I the Bucs just didn't do anything. How are you seeing the Bucs right now?
I really have made no change to the Bucs in my power ratings the last couple weeks.
, I just haven't seen any sort of thing that's making me wanna upgrade them, but not necessarily downgrade them either. I'm still definitely lower on the Bucs than I think the market is. That's not to say, there's still a top six team in my power ratings.
Like you said, it is a tale of two halfs. They're just they're a very complete team, but at the same time, there's nothing there that's showing me that they're an impressive team.
I don't see them having the ceiling as some of the other top teams, like the Bills and Chiefs and maybe even the Packers as well.
Brady threw the ball 52 times. There was a lot of criticism about why the Bucs offense hasn't been as explosive as you would expect it to be.
One, they've been dealing with injuries, but also that they've been running the ball more so than justified. But Brady threw the ball 52 times. 350 yard. Through just one touchdown. They only put up that 21 points and again, once score those over the last 20 minutes of the game. And so I'm just wondering if maybe the Bucs are a team that you can bet confidently with a big spread.
Falcons is one of the worst defenses in the league. And a capable offense, but as we know, we was missing Patterson was missing Pitts. So we're more exploitable and it just didn't come to fruition. It seems like the Bucs relaxed in the end and I don't know I'm very cautious, betting the Bucs, after this. Cause I feel like even when it was 21- 0 should have been 35 to zero.
Yeah especially versus Falcon's team. This defense is a bottom five defense.
This Buccaneers offense, it's clunky. And I think the only reason where I'm of holding where I'm at on the Buccaneers is I think the defense is still very good. It'll have its spots where they get exposed. But I think when you're playing some of these like lesser teams that don't really have a quarterback that can maybe create as much on his own. They're a defense that can definitely contain some of these bottom end quarterbacks and control the game in that
manner.
How are you looking at the Lions coming into this game. I know you ended up picking the Lions. This is one of the highest scoring offenses.
Season to date put up zero points as their first game outdoors. One of the things we talked about on our Market Outlook podcast, they had been playing indoors through the first four weeks. Still dealing with some injuries, but they been dealing with injuries all season and still nonetheless have been able to keep putting that firepower together on offense.
They were able to move the ball like we talked about in 29-0 not necessarily reflective of how this game played out, but the Patriots still meaningfully beat them in this game. And the Patriots also justifiably covered that three, three and a half.
I wasn't too quick to react to some of the Lion's early week performances. Some people, I think were even trying to like, we're putting 'em in the same stages, the Jaguars, and I just don't think that's the case at all.
I think there's several steps behind there. The defense is just way worse. But the offense was performing and if you look at some different statistical stuff, it was looking good. But I think my biggest takeaway in that game is on the Patriot side. We know how well oiled the fundamentals of that offense.
And the big takeaway here is that the market's gonna upgrade the Patriots from this, right? Then when Mac Jones comes back, they're gonna make another further upgrade. Now the issue I have with the like double upgrade maybe in a sense, is the market probably downgraded from Mac Jones to Zappe a little bit too much.
So I think we might overcompensate coming back and there will be some value playing against the Patriots when we see Mac Jones return. Again, Zappy didn't do a whole lot in this game. He was he very well, he did what the Patriots wanted him to do. I guess in a sense it's just managed the game.
And at the end of the day, Mac Jones, he's just a little bit better manager in the end. That's my takeaway.
Yeah. This was another game that there's this broader narrative consensus handicap that just.
Played out here, which was, the Patriots are gonna run the ball down the lion's throats. We also know the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL as well, if not the worst defense in the nfl. And that despite playing, a rookie quarterback, that Belichick's not gonna put him in very bad situations to make the Patriots any more vulnerable than they might otherwise be, and they're just gonna lean on the run game.
That's exactly what happened. Zappe threw the ball 21 times. He was very serviceable. 17 of 21 for almost 200 yards. Didn't take any sacks. Had just one pick. Which didn't stifle the flow of the offense or disrupt the outcome of the game. And then ran the ball 35 times for almost, 175 yards.
Just played out that standard handicap. Which is just frustrating. Another surprising final score is this Texans Jags. Only putting up six points. Scored zero points in the second half. It's not like the Texans necessarily looked good and the Jaguars just kept shooting themselves in the foot.
What we've seen the last two weeks now is some of this youthfulness, the immaturity from the broader team, from Trevor Lawrence specifically making some mistakes that are really compromising the outcomes. Cause the Jaguars are clearly a better team than the Texans.
We picked the Jags at minus seven. Probably at this point in time, it's just too early to be betting them at such a big number. Even versus a team like the Texans, who have been prone to just hang around in games, just enough to cover numbers and in this case, they win outright.
I know you're hot on the Jags from a season long perspective, which that still seems like, at two and three at this point, they're definitely ahead of schedule. And they definitely look very strong to exceed, that six and a half season win total, potentially still, even win the division...
but anything from this for you?
The Texans are very vanilla team. They're relying on the other team to play the sloppy game.
They're gonna be fairly conservative and I'm drawing back on the Jags just slightly. Not gonna react to this game too much.
You look at what the Jags have put forth these first five weeks. Right now have them pretty much as an average team. What would you say about that?
I wanna say there's a little bit better than average still. I think really what the takeaway is, like some teams came back down to Earth today. And we've mentioned it at times throughout the season, is that there really isn't any really bad teams and there's a lot of teams are just piling up in the middle and that there isn't really great separation.
From the 10th rank team, wherever that would be, maybe even the eighth rank team to basically the 30th rank team. Maybe even all the way down to the 32 is there's very few points that kind of separate these teams on a neutral field.
I agree with that. And one thing I've really noticed I play a lot of in season win futures and you look at some of the bottom typical, like bottom dwellers those teams that just starting maybe projected 3, 4, 5, 6 wins at the start of the season. A lot of those projections are staying pretty similar to what they were at the start of the season.
And I run some different sims and different things like that to calculate their updated projected wins based on some of my numbers. And I'm noticing a lot of value on those teams at the bottom. And I'm noticing a lot of value coming back on some of those teams at the top.
Cuz there's just not a lot of difference from the top to the bottom. And just the uncertainty is very exciting. And the books aren't maybe pricing that entirely correctly yet .
I'm sure you would agree the Bills look like probably the best team still. I feel like the Bills and chiefs are in their own tier. And then who's the worst team right now? Is it
the Panthers? Who do you think? So the Bears, I'm between the Bears and even the Steelers at this point.
There're Bears, Steelers, Texans. Those would be my bottom three currently.
I'm not downgrading the dealers nearly as much. I Like the Bills destroy and the steel didn't look good today, but when you're playing the Bills, if you get demolished, it's just Chalk it up to the game.
That's just what happens. But the Panthers, they're starting off one in four and they haven't necessarily looked good doing it.
They're gonna start making like some transition moves here. And that could potentially even be more disruptive. I don't think all of the Panther's troubles are necessarily falling onto Baker Mayfield, but he might suffer the consequences for the one in four. And and by going to, to Sam Darnold, it's not gonna make them any better.
It might make 'em worse.
We might see PJ Walker this week.
And then just to close on week five the Packers, there's just, something wrong in there and you been seeing it in every game all season. But I feel like the market really hasn't ever properly adjusted their prices and to be an eight point favorite, on a neutral field overseas.
Versus a banged up Giants team that certainly hasn't looked very polished themselves. But that's a big number for a team that's dealing with some internal decongestion . And Rodgers sailing balls. He obviously doesn't have the same chemistry with the wide receivers, but that's not just it, there's just not the same talent at Wide receiver.
And within the offense, just broadly. How are you seeing the Packers?
I have them right around the Bucs and the Ravens right now.
So pretty high. I do have them pretty high still. Yes. I'm holding onto some of my priors. Just the ceiling that I have for the defense. It just hasn't come together yet. And I hope I mean that
that's something that everyone's been talking about.
And every week it just doesn't show up.
Yeah. I'm slowly drifting further and further, but I knew the offense is gonna take time. That's no surprise to anyone.
I'm still trying to figure out what I think on the Giants as well. I came into the season with some overs on them, grew a little colder as the season got closer. At this point now they've seen that four and one, and I think they've shown that they're a competitive football team and they just can't be taken as a joke.
Like I think some of those other teams towards the bottom I think they're definitely in a different tier from those bottom five, bottom seven teams.
And they're not even healthy. Yeah. Some ugly that. I don't know if they, I wanna say they can, they sneak into the playoffs, but at 4-1, they're definitely on the right start.
And their win total was? Like six and a half. Yeah. Yeah. That seems like slam dunk now. All right. Let's try to put the disgusting week five behind us. Forget it. And any thoughts on the Chiefs Raiders tomorrow?
I made the number seven. If I had to take a side in it, I'll take the Chiefs, but I have no action on the game.
What about you?
No. Yeah I feel similarly as well.
We've been low on the Raiders, but even I'll admit, they're better than, a 1-3 record would suggest. And I know they got smoked and back to back games last year, but the season prior, the Raiders beat the Chiefs almost twice. So a full touchdown, getting Hunter Renfro back, a team that struggles with depth. I think that's definitely gonna help.
But let's go into week six. I know you've already started betting some of these openers, so definitely curious to hear some of your thoughts on that and what you've been leaning into thus far.
And if some of those prices have been changing. I haven't looked at anything yet, so you're way ahead of me.
Let's start with the Thursday Night Showdown. Washington at the Bears. It's currently at pick. I was talking about on our live stream, when we're live betting today, that I wonder if this would be Carson Wentz's last game as a starter, but given that it's a Thursday game, I probably take that back.
I don't know if it makes sense to start a rookie quarterback, Sam Howell, whoever they might go with on a short week. But do you think that they will bench sooner rather than later? Or do you think that this is just a dysfunctional team and it's not really just Carsen Wentz' fault?
I think it's a dysfunctional team, but Carson Wentz is contributing to that for sure. Seems like it might be a little early just with his first year there. At this point, their season is considerably done already, right? They're looking at one in four, everyone else in the division 4-1, 4-1, 5-0. There's not much hope at all there. So I could see the point too Hey, it's time. Maybe just call it quits.
But I don't know, I think they stick it out with him for a couple more weeks.
He almost threw a pick on the prior play that he ended up throwing the pick on.
And that's he himself losing that game. And he's already obviously struggled over the course of the season, taking way too many sacks. Doesn't really matter how bad the offensive line is. The dude constantly puts himself in compromising positions. He's done his whole career and he is doing it again.
And they have talents. That's the thing, is they have talent on that team.
That could definitely be fair. Just looking at what they threw out there last year at quarterback, I mean they've never really had. Yeah. Quarterback.
Yes. Very similar roster. Probably even a better roster this year. It is strange. The Washington is one of the teams I've made the strongest downgrades from week one when it comes to a team without any major injury. And. It's been ugly, like you said.
How you thinking about this one pick,
I
don't have a, or this just bad team versus bad team on Thursday night and this was just like, this is a landmine. Any professional better should not be leaning into. Yeah. No, I,
I haven't... for degens only. I haven't would touch this game.
If I could tease one of these teams maybe above seven. I would maybe consider that. With a total of 39 40, we're looking at like a preseason total. Like it's trending that way. But with a total that low, you can tease one of those spreads about seven.
I'd maybe look at that. I make it Chicago minus one. Nothing I'm gonna play off of that. Sure. When I did first see the number come out at 39 and a half on the total, I had a slight kind of wanting to take the over. Fields, I think he's gonna be a guy who can score points later in games just with his mobility.
I think they're a team that's gonna put up points in the second half a lot of times. And I think this Washington offense although Wentz has looked bad, I think they're very capable of putting up 23, 26, 28 points, against this Bears defense. Especially if Jalen Johnson is still out.
I had a slight look at the over, but I need to make sure that there's no funky weather in Chicago.
I would say I probably lean the Bears here.
One, I was just looking at like the run past splits. And, we know over the first course of the season, they weren't letting Justin Fields really throw the ball. And the last two weeks, especially later in the games, seems like they'd been letting Fields throw the ball more and deeper.
Threw the ball 21 times ran the ball 24 times, so still tilted towards running the ball, but certainly not as dramatic as it was through the first couple weeks of the season. And that will certainly play to their benefit. And the bears have always has been sneaky, they've been bad, but just sneaky. And I probably slightly lean the bears here.
Jags at the Colts. Jags plus one and a half.
I would strongly lean the Jags here.
I'm with you. I was looking at this game last week on the look ahead and was even considering potentially throwing it in some sort of teaser. With just how bad Matt Ryan's looked and just that Colt's offense. What's that ceiling of that offense?
It's pretty ugly. And so what I looked at in this game that I've already played, I played the under 43 and a half. That's already dropped though to 41, 41 and a half. But I think it still could be actionable at that 41 and a half. I think the Jags defense and Colts, I think that the defenses of both teams are probably, maybe the stronger parts and when you just, it's more of a fade of Matt Ryan than anything. These are two teams that I think will play a pretty low scoring game.
And we also know Shaq Leonard, is a key cog of that defense, the quarterback of the defense.
If he's out again, I don't know how many weeks he's out now but that would be meaningful. Whether Jonathan Taylor's in or out is irrelevant to me. I think this could definitely be a, I wanna say buy low on the Jags, but there's still only plus one and a half. What was the pre-season line on this?
Probably at least three and a half, maybe even.
Oh, I think it's way, way higher than that here. I could pull it up here in a second, but I know the look ahead, even just to put that in perspective was two and a half and we see the Jags go lose outright and we see the Colts win outright as dogs and you see this line drop.
So it was probably a bad look ahead in the first place. So that's probably part of it.
The Colts lost or won in miserable fashion in front of a primetime audience too. So that's gonna weigh on the Colts a lot more so than even the Jags losing straight up to one of the worst teams in the league.
Preseason the minus seven in this game. Yeah. Whew.
Yeah, it would've been bigger cuz the Delta on these two teams, cuz the Colts are much worse than the preseason. Yeah. Yeah. And the Jags are definitely better than preseason expectation. And so has this line moved, do you know already from the opener?
It was like a one and a half of two. Yeah.
Gotcha. So it's still stuck, I think. I'm sure people aren't very excited to bet the Jags now after losing back to back gains and certainly losing versus the Texans at home.
Also, Jags is the number one survivor pick. Yep. Did you sneak past that?
I did sneak past it, Yeah. Partially. We had three entries left and we did throw one in the Jags. Knowing we don't wanna give all those entries taking that play.
Like some edge. So we were willing to throw one of 'em on the Jags and then we took the Niners and the Saints, which were both under 5%. So we were pretty happy with getting those two through.
Nice. Congratulations to you man. How different this survivor season is compared to last year. Back when it was week eight, week nine and more than like 50, 60% of the pool is still alive with all those heavy favorites just constantly winning week in week out, week in week out. And now the number one picks lost like what, three times already or something like that? In just the first five weeks. Lots of volatility. What, do you know what the pool's down to now? Somewhere in
the six hundreds. So it's 10% left.
Yeah. Beautiful.
Beautiful. And for anyone who doesn't know, Corey already won the Circa survivor two years ago. So go for two outta three years.
Would sure be nice.
Yeah, that'd be amazing. Alright. Jets at the Packers. Jets plus seven and a half. Packers still being priced as a top five, top six team.
Minus seven and a half plus 100 right now. This one's in Lambeau. I don't know if the Jets necessarily looked great despite scoring 40 on Miami. The whole game script changed with Teddy Bridgewater getting knocked out and Skylar Thompson playing at quarterback. The game was competitive through, almost three quarters of that game.
Any strong views on this one?
I think there's gonna be points in this game like we've been saying that Packer's defense still hasn't figured exactly everything out. I think the Packers at home they'll be able to put up points on this jet secondary. And it's a pretty strong bounce back spot for the Packers as well.
And I think this Jets team in general is, I think, underrated. I've been higher on market than them. I was working my plus three and a half play. I played 'em plus six on the look at even this last week versus Miami before Tua went out. I was willing to play into that. It's not as much Zach Wilson as it is just the roster. I think it's better than a lot of people realize. I think a lot of people wanted to throw this Jets team as well and as like a bottom three team, bottom five. And I don't think it's I don't think it's that at all. So I think they're gonna be a competitive team. Yeah, I think they'll be able to put some points up on the board here just with the volatility of Wilson.
I think it's a guy I wanna maybe take overs in.
Yeah. Even with Flaco, they were in a bottom three team. Yeah. And then certainly with Zach Wilson opens up the offense much more. I totally agree with you. I think the Jets are probably still being mispriced. Dan makes a good point too. Packers can't put away bad teams.
They struggled really to put the Bears away as well, even earlier in the season. Bears were up seven zip. Fields got stuffed on the one yard line. If he makes that, Packers don't even cover. Coming back from the, from London Jet's got weapons, man. I'm definitely not betting the Packers minus seven and a half. That's for sure.
Niners at the Falcons Niners minus six on the road.
Total, very low, 42. Falcon's now 5-0 ATS. That was another reason why I felt a little bit comfortable betting the Bucs. First of all, I wanted the consensus play. Let's get the consensus play in there cause we have low conviction, but also are the Falcons gonna start off the season 5-0, the markets mispriced them that dramatically.
We were pretty high on the Falcons coming into the season and we've definitely capitalized on some of those ATS victories, but now we've gotten caught on the other side of it. Back to back weeks in a row because we bet the Browns last week and they clearly should have won that game.
Our drive quality talks about how they should have won that game. But again, they hang around, they have a good enough offense to certainly get back doors. They did it versus the Rams and now they did it versus the Bucs. Can they do it versus the Niners or can they win?
This is a game I actually took aside into total end right off the bat. I got a four and a half on the Niners and then I got the over 41 as well in that game. I think the Falcons, like I was saying earlier, the Falcon's defense isn't anything special as well.
The thing that's really drove in the upgrade is Mariota and that offensive play, play calling in scheme. Yeah. So I, I think the Niners are gonna be able to score. I thought the Bucs were gonna be able to score at will today, and they didn't necessarily do that. But I have the same outlook for the Niners offense this week.
And at the same time, I think the Niners got banged up today defensively. I think they lost Ward. I think they lost Bosa. And then on the other side of the ball I think that the Falcons Mariota he's, I think he's a lot better than people were giving him credit. And I know you guys were high on Mariota or just in general that Falcon's offense and just the overs and this is just being priced as the worst team in the entire league and it's far from that at this point.
They were being priced at four and a half wins. That's just, that was dumb.
And the crazy thing is I got some over four, I think it was after week one or week two. They started the year 0-1 or was it maybe 0-2, one in one, whichever it was. And they dropped the win total a little bit because they're like, Okay, this team's lost a game.
Which I understand some of that too, but I'm surprised that the market didn't see like right away maybe necessarily how off they were maybe on the Falcons. And I their win total going into this past week, I saw even as high as six and a half.
I don't know if I could bet against the Falcons, especially at the plus six. That's the perfect backdoor type of number. And the Niners ended up scoring a lot of points today, but I don't know if that's necessarily gonna be their mo. So I'm definitely not gonna be betting the Niners at six.
I think it still might go up a little further.
I would not be surprised if it maybe got to a seven this week. I'm not saying I think it should , but I think it might.
Yeah, Darnell points out, Yeah, Patterson on IR, so he definitely won't be playing, but I think Pitts will probably be back. But they're not utilizing him the way that I think a lot of people would be hoping.
Especially fantasy market guys. But the other point is those Niners injuries starting to pile up. So they were al their offensive line has already been banged up. I don't know if the Falcons are necessarily gonna be the type of team to necessarily take advantage of that. But that seems like a lot of points on the road.
It, this is basically what the nine are priced at this week versus the Panthers who are a much worse team than the Falcons. For me at this price especially because the seven you're talking about, it's Falcons or stay away from me.
Bucs minus eight at Pit.
You think that this has to be the Bucs, but every single thing that I just talked about the Bucs, still true as bad as the Steelers have been.
I lean with the Bucs. And some of that maybe is just holding onto the Bucs of the past Brady and maybe to the team of the last year or two.
It's hard to, I think that on the Steelers right now, everything comes with the number, but yeah, at that, I don't have a whole lot of thought in this game. I would maybe look towards an under. I did play the 44 and a half under, but I think that's dropped a little bit now. Yeah. But yeah, the Bucs, I think the defense is still very solid and still a top three, top five defense, no doubt.
And I think they'll easily be able to contain this Pittsburgh offense. The thing is, I'm just not super confident in the Tampa Bay offense to necessarily keep gain and keep margin like we saw today. Even but we know when Tom Brady and the Bucs play with the lead, it slows down a lot and the game just gets really, vanilla in the second half.
And that's why I guess, would like to look at the under in that game. Yeah,
I think I read TJ Watt had a step back in his recovery. Cause I know he was scheduled to come back in the week six time range. But it doesn't look like that's gonna happen.
Something to monitor. If I knew Pittsburgh could get pressure, disrupt a little bit of breeze timing, then I would like, I would feel comfortable taking Pit at the plus eight here. Especially in Pittsburgh. Still an opportunistic defense.
And I don't think there's really a lot to take away necessarily from pit getting destroyed by the Bills. And yeah, it's hard to evaluate picket, of course. But yeah this is definitely a tough one.
Panthers plus nine on the road verse LA Rams. Man, the Panthers do not look good, but neither do the Rams. seems like a lot of points. I'm not betting the Rams minus nine. Even if it was
PJ Walker have not seen.
I would,
but even if it's PJ
Walker. Yeah I'm in the same boat. I know the market would push up past that nine. You'd probably get it to even 11. I think if we saw PJ Walker. I think the markets already push this up. I saw a bookmaker pull it off the board. I'm not sure if it's back up, but because Mayfield was seen in a boot.
So I think there's some talk that, who knows at this point, the writing might be on the wall for that team as well. Yeah I'm in agreement with you. I, these are two teams I wanna bet against. There's a 10 out there, I think at Circa at 10 on the Rams.
Gotcha. So it seems like the more influential money's already leaning into the Rams.
Yes. And I think maybe that's a lot of the injury, but like you were saying in this Ram's offense is, it's not looking good at all. So I, it's, I don't know how you could lay a 10 with the Rams right now. I would lean towards the Panthers even at
that.
Yeah. Again, PJ Walker, it's bad as quarterbacks are, it's very hard to necessarily bet again against them in a standalone spot. PJ Walker came in last year and destroyed the Cardinals. It's not necessarily that he himself put in a great performance, but they ended up being the Cardinals by I don't know, 20 or 30 points last year.
And it's not like the Panther's defense is, there has been their weak weakness per se. That's why it's just so frustrating. The Panthers are so poorly coached because I feel like there's talent on this team as well, and it's just not properly being taken advantage of.
It feels like a lot like Washington.
I don't know who you would consider the better team right now, but you throw those two teams on the field and they look like you're staring into a mirror on both sides of the ball.
I would say I, I probably think the Panthers have more talent. Would agree.
But I think the Panthers have the worst coach in the NFL. For sure.
Bills at Chiefs, wooo, this is a good one. Bills minus one and a half on the road.
I'm looking at the Chiefs a little bit. Not a super strong lean. I make the Chiefs a small favorite. Who knows, maybe this number gets pushed up even more.
Yeah, I would say I lean Chiefs as well.
If this can somehow push out to three, I don't think it would. I mean there is a lot of Bills love. And we already saw the Bills struggle with the Ravens on the road. I know some weather and some elements also helped that, but that just showed a crack that this Bill's team is human and then destroying the Titans and the Steelers you're talking about the Steelers might be the one of the worst teams in the NFL.
And now they're gonna ostensibly play the second best team at home. And we see some of the chiefs kind of lay dodds here and there and it's not like what are they doing? What's the play calling?
Why are they being like so conservative? You'd think that this is gonna be a Bucs type game plan where everything comes out.
Whoever wins this game is, the front runner for the one seed for sure. In the AFC.
The part that's criminal about this game is how is this not a prime time game? Can we flex out? Russ Wilson, please?
Jesus. Alright. Cowboys at Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Cowboys plus five and a half. How much time does Cooper Rush have left? Do you know? Is this the game that Dak Prescott comes back, or...
Do you rush Dak back?
I'm not saying it's rushing here at this point. I had heard this last week that he still couldn't grip the ball. So it was pretty obvious that he wasn't gonna play this previous week. Now I did see some markets and very low, so it didn't really, doesn't really mean much at all. But Dak was being priced around maybe like 40% to play this coming week versus the Eagles.
With that said, I don't know if you. Is it worth it? It's a big game in terms of winning the division, but at this point, the Cowboy's at four and one, if Daks really close, but they're borderline. They definitely fine with the four and two record before bringing Dak back. If that's how they looked at it.
But yeah, there's a lot of moving parts in this game. The Eagles offensive line picked up, I think they lost three of their one was I think already out going into the game and then they lost half their offense aligned today. But yeah, if this was a fully healthy Eagles team and we were getting this versus the Cooper Rush cowboys. Gimme that five and a half. I played that five and a half on the look ahead thinking like, okay, I don't think Dak's going to play. And I got the worst of both ends.
Eagles didn't look overly impressive. They picked up some injuries, didn't cover the spread. And then you had the Cowboys, who looked impressive to the market and beat the Rams outright as a five point dog. And we're still sitting at a five and a half point spread. So it validates some of the, grabbing the five and a half, cuz if we just got, even I got the worst of both games and I still, I'm sitting with the same number.
How are you positioning the Eagles right now? Because this is something that Judah and I have been talking about. We're not ready to buy in to the Eagles hype. Now, it doesn't mean that necessarily this is the game where they go down, but Cooper Rush we saw was 10 of 16 for a hundred yards. He's just not hurting the cowboys. Game manager, perfect game manager.
This defense is definitely outperforming, They're getting to the quarterback, and if the Eagles have offensive line injuries, now that could be a point of weakness where the five, the Cowboys could cover that five and
a half. I think this Eagles team is reminiscent of the Ravens team of maybe two, three years ago.
Just in terms of they're, they're gonna stomp on some of those teams average to below average. You gotta account for that.
So you think the Eagles are legitimately a top
five team?
I would say yeah.
think the main takeaway here is gonna be monitoring what those eagles. offensive line injuries look like because what the Cowboys have proven thus far on a season day basis is if you have an exploitable offensive line, they will exploit it.
Just to add, it looks like both Kelsey and I think another offense line and they both return to the game but they are banged up,
Okay.
Lastly, Monday night football. Broncos plus six and a half at the Chargers. I think the market's gotta be really low, as low as it's been all season for sure, on the Broncos. 10 days rest coming off. Again a miserable game verse the Colts. Russell Wilson has not looked good.
Something I talked about a lot in our off season previews about how I thought Russell Wilson was certainly not going to miraculously revert to his classic form just because maybe his fingers a healed, that he had meaningfully lost a step. And, I haven't necessarily capitalized on it cause we haven't really been selling the Broncos hard.
and I talked about last week where I thought Russell Wilson was still playing better than I thought he would. Cause I thought he was gonna be a bottom five quarterback, like just suck that showed up Thursdays . But the Chargers are not a team to pull away and they couldn't do it again today. They haven't really been able to do it all season. I probably lean Broncos here, as disgusting as that feels.
I make the game more four and a half, so I would lean with the Broncos as well. I was very pro Chargers coming in the year. The injuries have really piled, like some of those were very meaningful injuries to Slater, to Bosa and Jackson, Keenan Allen those are all very important parts to the how that team runs.
I'm struggling to kind of power it. Where do you have the chargers at in the league? Or where would you say, are they a top five and more of a top 10?
Oh, definitely top 10.
Okay. That's the same area I have 'em as and yeah, like you said, as much as we wanna downgrade the Broncos, they did pick up some injuries this last week.
I know they lost a couple guys for the season. I think an offense lineman and then Darby on defense and That's true. Yeah. So there's something to be said there. But yeah, like you said, with all the prep time and just, just getting embarrassed on national television.
But I don't know. I think there's something to be said about that number, how much it's risen. I think this was a look ahead of three and a half, three maybe even. Yeah, that's, Chargers didn't put anything that's gonna make you like pro Chargers necessarily from this past week. That's all just anti Broncos.
Yeah, I don't trust Chargers covering this type of line? The heat that would be on Sta right now, if the Charger's lost that Browns game, I don't know if you solved the decision that he had made late in that game.
Heard about it essentially. Yeah. But like they're on their own, 35 or 40 yard line up by two or whatever, went for it on four down instead of punting it and didn't get it, But the Browns didn't take advantage of, missed the field goal, so they lucked out. I don't actually hate that decision.
In fact, when we were talking about it as it was happening on our live betting stream. I'm like, dude, the Chargers defenses is like such trash right now and the Browns are running up and down the field. So you might as well at least try to get and it was third and two or something like that.
So like they had two chances if you get two chances and you can't make two yards
and maybe you lose the game. Yeah. So I don't hate the decision but I know there's a lot of media definitely didn't like, of course the media definitely didn't like it, but I think even some analytics folks out there, who usually lean into this are also questioning that necessarily that decision.
Which also is like weird cuz then you've seen Staley this season not be as aggressive as you thought that he might be in certain situations. And then overly aggressive in situations where it's could go either way. So I don't know what is going on there. That gives me even extra caution betting the Chargers now.
Cause I don't even know if there's any sound philosophy or methodology supporting some of these decisions then. And it's just wishy washy.
I would be in agreement. This Bronco's defense is still, as much as it's maybe lost some pieces, it still looked good. And to lay a six on them, I think they can stay within that number to this Charger's offense.
Do we know, can Allen's gonna be back even? Yep.
Undecided. Cause I think he was supposed to be back this week and then it's just kinda, I think he had a step back as well. Great. So that would be something worth monitoring.
All right. Thanks for jumping on Corey. Wrapped up again, a brutal week five.
I just wanna forget about it. But again, October is tough and do we have byes next week? It seems like a relatively short slate.
I think there's a couple games off cuz of injury. The dolphins now that two oh and Teddy might both be out The Dolphins Vikings. Gotcha. Isn't on the board. And then the Seahawks Cardinals or the Browns patriots.
Yeah. That was not up there.
But that's always what makes, this kind of belly of the season. As you go into October, et cetera, the market, gets tighter. And the beginning of the season, you can have a certain thesis on a team and it takes a while for the market to adjust.
So that thesis, you are ahead of the curve. But that gets so much harder at week five six cuz the market catches up to it then and the prices just get tighter. There's less opportunity, less games on the board and that's why it's so critical to start off relatively hot because you could almost expect some pullback here in, in the middle of the season.
Going through this slate here on Sunday night for week six, this definitely looks stronger than what week five was.
