Episode Transcript
NFL Week 6 Market Outlook. I'm your co-host Brett Matthew, along with my partner and betting strategist extraordinaire Judah Fortgang and special guest are Arjun Menon. Like Judah, he also writes for Pf f has his own podcast with Tej Seth called Taking the Pointz. Has quickly become really a go-to listen for me every week. Offer some really sharp takes, fresh analysis and most importantly, actionable takeaways. It's something I'm always looking for in a podcast and that very few have. And so if you aren't already subscribed, go check that out.
But before we jump into week six, I did wanna do just a quick refresh of week five. We could look at how some of the consensus market power rankings have changed. We could look through some of our drive quality scoreboard. But Arjun starting with you, what were some of your key takeaways from week five?
Anything stick out to you and did you make any.
Yeah, I was up a little bit just betting, spreads in totals. I was heavily live betting the chiefs on Monday night after they went down 14. I wanna shout Judah for that. Really cool, like how do offensive perform when they're leading with a win probability of over 70% because the Raiders did exactly what they've done under Derek Carr which is stall when they're up like 17 or 14.
And the chief came back. So made a little bit of money there. Lost a little bit on the wines with you guys on, on Sunday, but it was overall a pretty good day. And I appreciate you guys having me on.
Yeah, absolutely. I know you're getting in more and more demand. I know you're on PFF Forecast this last week.
You just got added to a broader distribution. Now you guys gonna do in two episodes a week. That's exciting stuff. What about you, Judah? Anything you take away from week five and how did your bankroll perform?
I got murdered on spreads and totals.
Thankfully sack props really saved me. We're increasing the unit size we have to. But I got murdered on the Lions live betting. We had a bunch of tough tilts. The fact that the Chargers minus two, when I thought it was one and a half that, that really put me on tilt.
As for broader takeaways, I think the Broncos are still a little surprising. They sucked, right? There's no denying it, but relative to the market, they keep on playing well in this drive quality metric and other analytical trends like epa. Broncos are surprising. I downgraded them a little bit, but I'm a little higher on them relative to the rest of the market. And we're gonna talk about this as we preview the next week. But I really think the Jets caught my eye this week. You don't accidentally put up 40 points.
Yes, Skyler Thompson was the quarterback, but that has nothing to do with how many points the Jets offense scored. And there's really a case to be made that like Zack Wilson's gotten better. And that's something we should lean into.
Even according to our Drive Quality scoreboard, they legitimately earned those 40 points.
I'll add this is something I wrote about after week four, which is just like the NFC teams and the best teams from 2021 have all gotten so much worse. Like the Bucks Rams Packers and I really came to fruition.
But these teams are not the same teams, and so long as like they're being power ranked as those teams and being priced as those teams, I really want to sell.
Yeah. One of the things that, again, I had a very Tilty Sunday as well, as I of articulated on our Sunday Night Tilt episode.
And the cherry on top was, Judah, when we were going back and forth around what our five selections were gonna be for our Circa contest. The Cardinals was in there by the time you went to sleep. Yeah. And then when you woke up, they were gone. And I supplemented with the Bucs who should have covered and didn't.
But why I wanted to highlight that bad memory was because according to our drive quality scoreboard, Cardinals won. So we got them, 26 earned points to Philly's, 23 earned points, which goes to demonstrate how solid of a pick that really was, isolating that moment to lean into betting against the Eagles, which, we know so many people have been fearful to do, and I think we'll continue to be fearful to do.
Yeah. Still the only undefeated team in the league.
Even the Saints and Seahawks and the point totals themselves. It's becoming a trend that, maybe this offense is actually good. And even the Saints without really any receivers, which goes to show the depth they have. And the Seahawks defense is awful, but, Yeah, you don't put up 40 by accident. Bears aren't putting up 40 against anyone. The Texans aren't putting up 40 against anyone.
The Saint Seahawks game was definitely a big eye opener, but I think that's one where we shouldn't overreact too much, but it is impressive to see they showed up pretty highly in your drive quality metric.
What also sticks out here is the time weighted average margin and the time weighted average win probability. How we used it in our off season previews was to give us a better sense of how that game really ended up playing out.
Because I'm looking at this Giants Packers game. According to our drive quality scoreboard, the Giants earned more points than the Packers, so it was a legitimate win, but the time weighted averaged margin was negative five for the Giants, and their time weighted win probability was 33%.
That makes total sense to us because it's fresh in our me, we know how that game played out and we know that they were down 10 zip right off the bat and we're down by at least one score for most of that game.
Colts, is another one. Broncos in our drive quality, beating them by almost a touchdown time, weight to average wind probability for the colds minus three time weighted to average wind probability 26%. And yet, squeaked that game out and that's why I would not be upgrading the Colts at all.
I don't understand how their division favorites right now,
or I don't know how they're favorites to the Jaguars this week.
Yeah, I mean that for sure, but like how even a long term outlook. I don't get it.
And when we look at our consensus market power rankings, which looks at the power rankings from different media stalwarts, like ESPN, PFF, 538, Football Outsiders, and In Predict, and then equal weights those rankings and gives us a consensus market ranking. Something we've highlighted before is, the methodology and the way they approach these rankings is different.
So it could be a little noisy, but can still be helpful to understand and quantify how the market is evaluating these teams from a relative perspective. And so we have the bills at the top, Chiefs, Bucs, Eagles, Ravens to round out the top five, and then Packers at six, which seems high to me.
And then Cowboys come roaring back after being down big early in the season, especially after that Dak Prescott injury. And then Niners, Bengals Browns to round out the top 10. Then your Chargers, Arjun, just outside the top 10 at 11. And we could see some of the biggest weekly changes is the Lions dropping nine spots after the shellacking by the Patriot's. Now sitting at 1-4. And now we're starting to hear a lot of creeping negative sentiment around the coaching staff and oh, all the stuff that they're doing it's cute, in the off season and when you're covering a lot of numbers. But now when you start losing gains, then that's not so cute anymore.
Then we got Dolphins, a lot of that is injury based. Cardinals.
Can someone explain this? Yeah. Do they not just outperform expectations against the Eagles, no matter how you slice it?
I guess they didn't do it good enough.
I like a hundred to one to win the Super Bowl.
Okay.
It just seems they're so like, discombobulated maybe with Deandre Hopkins, they, they make a run towards the end of the year.
But I watched a little bit of that Eagles game and it was a lot of Kyle Murray doing what he does best, and they've been a better second half team than a first half team. But they scored 10 points in the first half, seven in the second half.
And Eagles were hurting pretty badly towards the end of that game and the Cardinals were driving on the last drive, but still I think there's some underlying issues that they haven't solved yet. I don't know if 22 is too low but I don't see them as a league average team as of right now.
Yeah, I think that's fair. The only takeaway I had this week is week one is seeming more like a fluke then not carrying any signal, right? They blitz a ton against Mahomes, it's a recipe for disaster, gave up 45 points. But they played, at or above expectation all the other weeks since, and maybe this defense is actually okay.
We're not live trading late afternoon games. But that Eagle's Cardinals game lined up perfectly for live bet.
I bet it.
Knowing that the Cardinals start off slow and that the Eagles, how many points did they score in the second half? All season?
I think this game went the way I thought it would and Judah thought it would that I bet the cart Eagles first half minus three. Landed on four.
And then me and Judah were talking and I was like, they're probably gonna come back. And so Judah live bet the Cards what it was like plus 14, plus 15 or something. Easily covered. So I think there's angles to play the Cardinals and it's probably something you don't wanna pre-bet because they're gonna go down early.
Given the vulnerability in that division, I can see your angle, Judah, around potentially leaning into some of the variance for a team like the Cardinals, who have a very high seal if everything starts to click right.
One of the things I have here too is standard deviation across the rankings to demonstrate where's the most disagreement across these media platforms and how they're power ranking these teams.
Football Outsiders has the Seahawks as the 10th rate team. So that's like a massive outlier. But there's pretty much, there's pretty good agreement that the Seahawks are still a bottom three team. How do you guys feel?
I know Judah, you were mentioning earlier, maybe you need to legitimately reevaluate how good Geno Smith is and he needs to be rated differently moving forward, that these are no longer just singular outlier events that are just coincidentally happening more often than not.
And if that's the case, as bad as their defense is, the Seahawks are materially mispriced then, as a bottom three team, I don't know if I agree with football outsiders saying they're to the 10th best team. What do you think, Arjun? How are you thinking about Geno Smith now? And how is that filtering down to how you're thinking about the Seahawks?
I think some people are overreacting to a small sample. Some people actually think he's good. Steven Ruiz and some of the Seahawks fans who like actually studied Geno's tape actually liked him before the season and it's shown up on tape again. But I don't know, I feel hesitant because, he played the Lions who just suck on defense.
He played, like Dan said, the Saints coming off London. But you watch some of the throws he makes and it's those are like legit NFL throws and you don't just throw two 40 yard touchdowns on not just on yak, but like through the air on accident. We should give a little bit of respect to Geno Smith and should treat him like at least a league average quarterback until he proves otherwise.
So while I don't think he's hitting Trevor Lawrence's levels. He's at the level where we should respect him and not treat him like he's a bottom barrel quarterback.
Yeah, I agree with that sentiment. It's not just the fact that the Seahawks are scoring points. It's not just the fact that Geno Smiths throwing touchdowns and leading drives. It's the way it's happening.
Lastly, before we move into week six, you looking at just some of the year to date changes from week one to today and how the market has reevaluated some of these teams.
I wanna call out the Jags. This was a team, Judah and I really liked in the off season. But now legitimately put in an ugly performance versus the Texans at home. Legitimately lost versus the bottom two team.
How are you guys thinking about Trevor Lawrence and the Jags right now? So the market's got 'em ranked mid tier 13th. Does that seem about fair?
I think 13 is perfect. What's interesting this weekend, is that in predict, which is pulling from the actual spreads of the game has the most 20th. Yeah. Meaning they're actually currently this week being priced as 20th, which I think is the mismatch because I actually think thirteen's probably the right number.
The defense has really impressed so far, which I think is the biggest delta between the off season and now. Like the front four has really been terrific. But with Trevor Lawrence, like how many times Brett did we see and I think this is what you're pointing out with the year to date change, those like graphs of power rankings and goes up and down and up and down and up and down.
And fluky games are gonna happen. We have to build in that they're going through bad weeks. I haven't really downgraded Trevor Lawrence at all.
I think he's the same player he was. Football players are going to go through your random games, right? The chargers are gonna lose to Thetans last year for no good reason. This happens all the time, and I don't think it's worth overreacting to.
I agree and the thing with ELO model is you're baking in priors a lot, so this is obviously baking and the fact that the Jags are picking number one last year and it's still pretty early in the season.
As when you compare, like football outsiders where they, the Jags dvo a performance against, like the Chargers in week three was like in the thirties or something, which is absurdly high. So I think that's baked in too much. I think thirteen's the right rank. I think Lawrence will be fine in the long run. There are a lot of things she's doing very well. And when it comes to being more consistent through the air, I think that will get better as the season goes on. And I hinted at it in my Back to the Futures piece for PFF, but I don't think they should be the third highest odds to win the division after one bad game?
Yeah. I think the sell off is extremely negative and that basically this is the signal the last two weeks and the first three weeks was actually noise.
And I think we're starting to see that in some of the market pricing this week. Being a two point underdog. Seems mispriced.
But let's get into week six. Thursday night. Commanders flipped. So Bears were minus one. I And now commanders might, as one heard, it's supposed to be like questionable weather.
The total's been dropping. I think it was like 41. That was down at 38.
I do have a lean on the commanders in this game, and I feel like I might be an idiot for betting on Carson Wence, but like Jude always says, like the positive variances due. And I think my main like thing for this game is the thing that the commanders do very well in defense counters, what the bears do very well and offense, the commanders per rush pa a top five team, a fourth and rushing success rate allowed. The bears, pretty much all they can do is run the ball.
I there's gonna be about like eight to 10 mile per hour wins in Chicago tomorrow night. So that's gonna influence a lot of rushing. Johnson's coming back, but like Kyle Gordon is like literally one of the worst nickel cornerbacks in the NFL right now. And that's where Curtis Samuel is gonna be.
So I think he's gonna have a pretty good game. Commanders have shown me enough at times where like they hang around you, you beat a team like the Jas, you hang around with the titans where it I seemed more of a coin flip than a four point game, right? It's tough to really back Carson Wence on a short week, even though I think there might be some motivation after what Ron Rivera said in this press conference.
And to your point, according to our drive quality scoreboard, Titans, Washington pretty much exactly was a coin flip. Yeah. One point game. And the time weighted average win probability was essentially split 50% time weighted average margin one point. So it really was a total coin flip. One of the things Darnell called out. He's been on some of our live streams and the game trade. And I'm sure he's heard you talk, Arjun, about your adoration of fields under touchdown props. Are you leading? It's that
this week as well? Yeah, it's already in the, it's already in the bank.
Gotcha. Locked it in. Yeah. What do you think,
Juda? That's a staple. I'm not sure if I'm gonna be it only because like ugly game, too bad teams. This is a spot I stay away.
The bears don't look good, but they don't look dysfunctional. The market agrees with you Arjun, seems the edges towards Washington having flipped, favorites.
Not a meaningful move from one to one, but this is probably a game that I'm not gonna touch. And also I can't bet Bears Games since I'm a Bears fan. It doesn't matter. Like I will lose money.
Bear's game in October is a disaster. Oh, and in October? Yeah. It doesn't cancel out. No, it just it's compounded.
Alright. Bucs at Pittsburgh. Bucks minus eight. A little bit of buying on Pittsburgh. I saw this at nine, then eight and a half. Now it's reduced juice eight.
Most of the bets coming in on the bucks. One of the things I was talking about last week on the Sunday night tilt was, we bet the bucks minus eight and a half versus the Falcons, destroying them 21 zip and let them come all the way back.
Took the foot off the pedal and I just don't know if I can trust the bucks at such a pricey level.
The margin of error for a team like the Steelers is so high because they're not gonna score points. Especially against a good buck's defense.
But I do have my concerns about how good the buck yours offense actually is and their ability to extend leads. Cause I don't think this is the same team. don't think it was just a function of them taking their foot off the gas.
They still passed 55 times, they just weren't effective. I'm not sure I'm comfortable laying eight with the bucks, when I think they're being priced as 20 21 bucks.
The market is grading them very high. Only downgrading them a spot year to date, despite looking very clunky.
Still ranked as third third rank team. ESPN Goma three ff Goma 3, 5 38, 5 football outsiders, four in part three, standard deviation, one of the lowest. So there's pretty much also a unanimous agreement that the Bucks are still an elite team. Yeah. Maybe they are mispriced in this game. And for that reason, I can't bet the box here.
If anything it'd be like the bucks and a teaser leg, but but yeah, no bucks have, Buckster didn't really show me much last week to, to back them at all.
Still on the road. Going to pit, still can be tough.
And from what I've seen from Kenny Pickett doesn't look like he's downright miserable. I think he's gonna show up from time to time this season. If it's gonna be versus a top three defense, probably not.
49ers at Atlanta, a little bit of buying on Atlanta.
This was like six, six and a half. Now it's down to five and a half. From a betting perspective. Looks like it's generally split.
I'm worried about the 49ers injuries just piling up. Nick Bosa going out with his groin injury, Emmanuel Mosley, who was playing at a solid level for the Niners, he's out. So now you add a weak link or depending on what Jason Verret does I don't know if he's gonna start playing again.
But the thing with Atlanta is I think Arthur Smith is a good play caller, but I just don't understand their offense.
Now they don't have Cordell Patterson, so I'm not like intimidated by their run game. So I think this one's like a layoff for me, unless I'm teasing the Niners down to pick 'em basically.
But Damika Ryan is one of the best, and I mean he, he's could probably still find a way to keep the falcons under 20 points.
Be under is a little intriguing to me. Just because I'm also not yet, enthralled with the Niners offense. Sure. I'm not, I'm certainly not backing the Falcons. I think five and a half is a lot. The Falcons are plucky, they're really plucky
five and Oh, against the spread, right?
Five and oh
against the spread and still only marginally upgraded two spots year to date and most of that coming from last week. So still 19th, ESPN 27th ff 23rd from 5 38. 15th at Football Outsiders.
My thing with the Falcons and especially the Niners, if the Niners can get the Falcons into expected passing situations, I think it's over.
Especially if Nick Boso plays, because the Niners right now have the second highest pressure rate among all teams in the nfl. So if Mosa is playing and 49 ERs go up double digits early and Mark Mariota is going back and drop back passing 40 times a game, I don't think the nine I don't think the Falcons have the ability, especially without pits to coming back door this five and a half.
But if they're able to keep it in a neutral game script, still have the probability of running and passing the ball, I think that neutralizes the elite, nine defensive line in whatever blitz packages Doko Ryans like to, likes to send.
I guess the like handicap there would be, if you think, even if the five 49ers do take a lead, if they're gonna continue to remain defensively aggressive.
Yeah. Because we've already seen the Falcons built to come from behind at this point in time. Again, they're more banged up now as well. So there's that. If this of goes back to six, that's still not paying a Falcon's team really any respect. Basically a full touchdown at home and you're already five and oh at.
Verse a banged up 49ers team, especially if boasted us in play.
I don't think Bo is, can apply.
And that might be why there's some pressure.
Yeah. On this line. Moving
along. I don't have a great read, I don't think on this game.
Though, you're talking about like the shifting market sentiment. After that Broncos game, it was, ah, the Niners like, and Jimmy G like this team isn't that good. Their demons are supposed to be great and it just kinda looks the average and just how fast some of these narratives change.
Jets at Green Bay. Jet plus seven and a half. Take it away.
There are multiple angles here. We talk about this all the time about. The market is extremely slow to adjust to quarterbacks improving from year one to year two.
I think the assumption is Zach Wilson is the same quarterback he was. He's in the same situation he was, and I don't think that's even close to true. And he is actually played very well. He's by far the best passer from a clean pocket, which is one of the most stable metrics.
He's taking much fewer snacks which was an issue that plagued him last year, whatever it is, CPA's, higher, et cetera, Cetera. And I think it speaks a lot to, number one, the offensive situation, right? That the receivers are getting open and they're being schemed open. Garrett Wilson is absolutely terrific, the run game has gotten going.
All of that speaks to, I think, the Jets offense is actually these last couple of weeks a top 10 unit is a signal of what's to come. And we're getting incredible odds on that. Why? Because the package are still being priced as the same 2021 team when they've been terrible.
Yeah. Their offense has been legitimately bad. No good team like accidentally plays close games or loses to the giants there. They're not the same team, but they're still being priced as the same team. Not to mention there are a bunch of angles, within the game that happen on the Jets, which is that the achilles skill of Aaron Rogers has always been pressure when his offensive line breaks down.
The jets are fifth in the NFL at forcing mistakes on the offensive line. In terms of epa, Aaron Rogers has the fifth biggest discrepancy when the play is perfectly blocked vs when the play is not perfectly blocked. Not to mention that the offense is not getting open. Defenses are perfectly covering their plays out of it nearly half, 50%, and the jets are perfectly covering their plays at 50%.
Add those two together and you have a lot of expect a negative plays, right? For an offense that's already struggling and still being price as to 2021 Team. The last thing I'll say is that in 2019 Aaron Rogers was, their team was 13 and three, that Aaron Rogers really struggled.
It seemed like he didn't really buy into the low floor system at all, and he was playing out of structure. If you watch the games now, especially the second half when things weren't working, Rogers was not playing it within Rhythm where he was extremely successful with the floor, but he is just like chucking up deep balls down the sidelines.
Yeah, like he's not comfortable and he's playing more like the 2019 self in terms of his decision making than the mvp from 2020. 2021.
Judah, really hit the nail on the head. I echo his work there. I just don't think Aaron Rogers looks the same right now. His early down to lay down splits are drastic. He's definitely a top six, top seven quarterback on first and second downs. But when it comes to the money downs he's been at least a bottom 12 quarterback, which is not something typically we saw from Rogers.
When you're in the money down, he doesn't have a go-to receiver. He doesn't have someone that is gonna get open when teams play man. And so he's either just relying on these RPO flat routes or bubble screens, which always worked with Devonte but doesn't work anymore cuz he doesn't really have chemistry with anyone except Randall Cop or Alan Lazard.
Which it doesn't really matter if you have chemistry with them or not. They're gonna produce a little bit, but not at the rate devonte's producing ad. And the other thing is like Rogers has been pretty much a bottom eight quarterback under pressure This. Which given Elton Jenkins and BTI coming back from injuries, that's pretty big.
The Jets surprisingly ranked fourth in pressure rate in the NFL right now, which I don't know if that's as surprising, like to some people getting Carl Lawson back, Quinn and Williams is playing like a beach this year. But if they are able to get into your pressure from Quinn and Williams, from Carl Lawson on the outside and make Rogers have to move, have to play under pressure, I think there is a legit chance the Jets win this game
I think the one pushback I would have is I'm not fully bought into Zach Wilson, as Judah. That's, yeah, that's an
important point. I'm not like bought into Zach Wilson either in the sense of Oh, I'm ready to bet the Jets, in futures or whatever.
But this is a seven and a half point game. If you're betting, the Panthers last week at five and a half or six, The nine, you're throwing shit at the wall in hope something sticks. This, there's like a legitimate angle, There's a legitimate play to say, Okay, I'm gonna get plus 2 75 on the money line here.
And there are real reasons why the Jets could be good. Am I willing to like fully bet that over the long term? No, but there's real asymmetric risk here and if I'm right on this one little thing, which is that Sack Wilson's been a little bit better and the Packers are a little bit worse, the upside's huge.
And that's why I love the spot. It's all relative to price.
Yeah. And I one of the things you're talking about, Judah, is the market hasn't downgraded the packers enough. In fact, the market hasn't downgrade the Packers at all. And so we can quantify that. We look at the year to day change for the Packers' is up one spot.
If we think that the market is still way too high in them and that's translating into an overly aggressive spread versus a team that's still not being properly appreciated. So we've seen the Jets have certainly been upgraded on a season to day basis, and particularly last week. But still, bottom eight team.
My pushback on this handicap would just be something along the lines of the Jags. it Looks like the teams getting things together, but we know that they're still young. And I feel like going on the road at Lambo, we're certainly an experienced quarterback and a well coached team at minimum.
I think that's the square take that's going into why the number is seven and half people are like, Nah, I can't really listen to the 2022 data.
This is Zach Wilson. It's a young, inexperienced team, by the way, same handicap against Pittsburgh, Zach Wilson coming off from an injury, going against an experience team and a good coach into Pittsburgh. I'm gonna pick 'em in Survivor.
Although Pittsburgh is clearly a very bad team. Yeah. And the Packers might not be a top five team.
But they're not a bottom fight. No,
They're not the Steelers. But people we know are willing to put money on the Steelers and in Survivor, I'm sorry, Dan. But I thought you were talking about Zach . But yeah, that's true. That's baked into the price. I think probably a little too much.
We're still gonna see at least two or three nasty duds from the Jets this year.
But this is by no means a reason to bet the Packers. This would simply be a reason why you might be cautious. You always want, when you're trying to make your bets, you have to see both sides.
If you don't see both sides, if you cannot make a justifiable handicap for the other side, then you're just not like seeing the game properly, and that would be like my small pushback. Is this a top five pick? Absolutely.
Ravens at Giants. Giants plus a five and a half reduced juice.
I don't think I've really seen this move.
I think it opened up at six and a half.
Six and a half. So down a point. Yeah. With a lot of that action as expected on the Ravens, line being adjusted the other way, which implies more influential money coming in on the Giants.
Which makes sense cuz I don't think there's still really a palatable team that most casual betters would be betting at this point in time. This is probably their most impressive win. Where I feel like the broader market is starting to take notice.
Because prior to this it was like, man, they're like the worst one and o team ever, man. The worst three in one team ever. And I think, we can see that there's still, 20th. So getting there, this is definitely the highest of giants have been in years.
I think it's a tough game to handicap. The Giants I don't think they're that good of a team, not very talented, but they're just scrappy. Like they fight. We saw a lot of good things from Daniel Jones that game. That was like one of the best performances I've seen from him as a quarterback. But from the Raven's side, like that was also the Raven's best defensive performance. And I think we need to respect that now. Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters both had pretty good games.
The thing with the Raven's defense is it's built to stop Joe Burrow. It's built to stop Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, right? That's why they transitioned from a blitz heavy cover or man scheme under Win Martindale to Mike McDonald's who runs a lot of too high stuff. And that's why Joe Burrow's Adot was like 3.8.
I don't know if that necessarily gives them an edge in this game. This is a type of game where, like me and Juah were doing a lot of work on this over the summer. The Raven should be playing a lot of man. Humphrey and Peters are significant advantage over. I don't even know who they're trying to, Some
games and David Souls are
really, Yeah, like I guess the only mismatch here is you can't leave sa you can't leave Patrick Queen one on one of Saquon Barkley because that is probably the biggest mismatch in this game on both sides of the ball. But six and a half I think was too many points. For the Ravens, I think it's properly priced at five and a half.
And I think at this point you're either buying that the Giants are like gonna hang in there, hang tough or the Smart Ravens with Lamar Jackson are just gonna blow them out the water.
Yeah I'm glad Arjun, you said something about the alt line.
Which is I'm not playing this spread. I would maybe sprinkle something on the alt line. There certainly is the angle of Oh, this giant start is cute. But like Daniel Jones just played his best game. What happens when he goes back to, his career average they still have no receivers.
And Lamar Jackson is just too much for them to handle.
But I really liked the under in this game, which was I talked about it last week, is that I know the Giants defense is getting enough respect. I think Wink Martin Dell is doing a tremendous job skimming up pressure and even just of mitigating the facts that just defenses doesn't have a lot of talent and they're producing at a pretty good clip.
I think the Ravens, especially if Rashad Bateman is out again they don't really have the weapons on offense. They don't have the running backs or the kind of run game they've had in the past to lean on. But at the same time, wide distribution of outcomes. But I think there's a pretty fat metal there.
I'm looking at the alt lines now on drafting. So this is pretty insane. . I had no idea there was this much optionality drafting every
half point. How do you think I Yeah. Entertain
myself all day. Yeah. Jesus. And we never fully.
Into it the way we wanted to, but to look at, the dynamics of alt spread pricing and try to see if there's hints in there around which lines might be weaker than others and how those alt lines are almost essentially power ranking certain teams.
But yeah, I love Ravens alt spread.
Vikings at Dolphins, Vikings minus three and a half point Road favorites. Oh, so this definitely seems to be pricing in Skylar Thompson.
I think it's already confirmed he's starting. I wanted to bet the Vikings on Sunday and I think the line just wasn't up.
If this was under three without the hook, like two and a half, two, I would definitely bet the Vikings for the simple reason that the Dolphins defensive scheme plays right into what the Vikings are good at, which is getting Justin Jefferson, the ball in man coverage because there is truly no cornerback that can shop Justin Jefferson in man.
And that's all the Dolphins like to do with or without Xavier Howard, I still feel very confident in the Viking. He's in this game, and even Adam Thelan I don't think he's washed, but he's regress to obviously a little bit, but I think he's still better than the Dolphins number two corner without Byron Jones.
The only thing I'm worried about is the Vikings defense allowed like 22 points to the Bears. I think there are some questions about, they play a lot of too high under their defensive coordinator and the dolphins like to throw the ball short.
Tyreek like average at the target is pretty low at times. And with Sky Thompson's gonna be very low. So can they wrap up? Can they tackle I think those are questions that I have about them.
I'm definitely gonna be playing a nice Justin Jefferson same game, parlay or something like that. I just, I don't think the market is really pricing in just how banged up the dolphins are. Especially for a team that plays a lot of man coverage. Jones and Howard, we'll see if Howard's out, that means a lot more to a team than, teams that play zone Tyrie, Kes banged up and obviously the
quarterback. An armstead also, I think, and for
an armstead banged up.
Oh, that's right. Yeah. They're really like, almost all of their talent is either out or limited in some way.
And again, if you're trying to ride the rhythm of a team, again, like started off market, jumped, got really hot on the Vikings after the Packers game in week one. And basically been sinking ever since then. They're not impressing like the casual better, and the broader market rankings as well. And so that could potentially leave opportunity.
Especially for contest purposes the hook could potentially scare people off. Yeah. From the Vikings, making them potentially more attractive even.
Bengals on the road at Saints, This one's been bouncing around between one, two. I feel like, I wanna say I like the Bengals,
Cuz the Saints defense, I don't know what's going on there. And the Saints are also banged up. I was looking like Mike Thomas might be out a lobby agent wasn't practicing today. Lanson was also out. So just huge cluster injuries at the wide receiver spot. And Andy Dalton is good in one or two game stints, but like three in a row.
This is about the time when he like, starts to suck . And we still haven't seen like a really show out performance from the Bengals. I know you've been low on the Bengals, Arjun?
I know I've been low. I have them to miss the playoffs ticket, but the Bengals minus one and a half is my biggest play of the year.
On par with Eagles minus three first half against the Cardinals. Okay, so it's gonna sound crazy. I know Be was having look good two and three. I think they showed enough growth as an offense in that Ravens game to where okay, I can finally see them maybe turn the corner.
Cause we saw Joe I think we can clown Burrow for the 3.8 a dot. But that's exactly what he's supposed to do in those like two high situations. But the Saints are not like that type of Vic Van types defense. Like they're gonna run their own stuff. And the way I see this playing out, the Saints gave up four touchdowns of 20 yards or more against the Seahawks.
And if there's one thing the Bengals can do in an instant is generate explosive plays, which we saw against the dolphins. Marsha Latimore is having one of those down years, Like every year it's either he's a top 10 corner or he's not a good corner. And I think this, And he wasn't practic say either.
Yeah, I was gonna say. Yeah. And DK Metcalf like torched him on Sunday. So that's my angle for the Bengals offense is even if the Saints take away the explosive plays, the Bengal showed me that they can methodically move the ball up and down the field. The run game looked okay on Sunday. And the thing with the Saints is I think a lot of people get scared of their defense.
Like I don't think it's been that impressive outside of maybe the Bucks game. And they always perform well against the Bucks, right? They allowed what, 30 plus points to the Seahawks. They have the worst pressure rate in the NFL to the state. And that's
beautiful. So that's big.
That's Federal's answer. That's the huge one. Yeah. And obviously the Bengals often struggles when Joe Burrow's pressured because He doesn't have time to hit the deep ball. He doesn't have time to go through his progressions. And obviously those pressures turn into sax very quickly with Burrow, but I don't think he's gonna be going through that this game.
And then on the flip side, The Bengals defense has been one of the most impressive defenses in the NFL period. And now I know losing DJ reader is big, but there are secondaries mostly intact. And if the Saints don't have their top three receivers, I think the Bengals D is gonna lock down this Saints offense.
Alvin Camaros is good as a receiver outta the backfield, but like Logan Wilson is a pretty underrated linebacker. He shows up very well in mean, and Judah's successful coverage over expected metric. So there's a lot of angles I really like on the Bengals this game. And so I'm happy to back them in.
Honestly I think of this as a neutral stadium because Bur and Chase are from lsu. I don't know like how much of a Saints fandom there's gonna be as compared to LSC fans. But I'm cur I was really curious to hear about your guys' take on this game.
Now you've heavily influenced me. I'm sold. That's cool.
I'm fully sold.
The pressure angle. Combined with the explosive plays, Yeah. Really has me. This is a schematic thing. Like they were last or bottom of last year and allowing explosive pass plays. The Saints were and I think the very fact that like bur Achilles heel has always been those pressures to sax and if those pressures aren't coming in the first place, the sacks aren't either.
Yeah. And those are more plays like volume that may have been ss, especially the longer developing ones that would turn into explosive plays against the Saints.
And if the Saints turn out to be down their top three wide receivers with Andy Dalton at quarterback, even if it is James Winston with no weapons, I could create even just more negative plays. But Bengals versus Cowboys, like the single factor was basically the pressure that the cowboys were getting on the Bengals to disrupt that offense.
Also this reminds me of, the NFL big data bowl talking about, offensive line. . And one of the things I think maybe we were flirting with this idea in the off season, Judah, thinking about like chemistry amongst offensive line and how does that play out?
And that's, one of the things that people are anecdotally saying around some, a team like the Bengals, the offensive line, like they don't have chemistry. Cuz everyone knew oh man, the Bengals really upgraded their offensive line over the course of the season. That was their biggest link last year.
And now it's no longer gonna be a meaningful vulner. And we know obviously the quarterback still affects that and everything, but just wondering over the course of the season, does the strength, the resiliency, the chemistry, how the players play together on that offensive line, if it gets better.
And maybe it's still too soon for something like that to really necessarily play out. But yeah, this defensive line versus offensive line component I think is a huge angle here. And I think even if you didn't say anything else, Arjun, if you just said This is gonna be my biggest play of the year, probably should be like, All right, case close, let's move out the next game.
No
I can't do that, man. Our podcast's better than we are own freaking five. This is probably gonna be the one I pitched when we record or take the points podcast, but
Oh wow. Sneak peek here. First info.
Alright. Patriots at Browns. Patriots plus two and a half. I saw three. Could get to three.
Yeah. How's market positioning on this one? It's relatively split 57.
43. Yeah. Now that we don't have the hook, I like the Browns in this spot at home.
Browns fundamentally aren't really like a two and three team. They're more three and two are possibly more in one.
You could make the case for them being almost like five and Oh. For sure.
Especially if you're buying into the narrative with Bill Bell check can now coach you for whatever that means. I generally fade this sort of angle.
Yeah. But I like the Browns are certainly up there as one of the best coaching staff in the league, and that angle certainly does not exist in this game, which I every bit trust Kevin's dsky to, be Bill Beche, which I guess is basically saying that like the Browns have talent on their side.
And I think they're fundamentally the better team. And I think the Patriot's biggest comparative advantage is coaching and I think that's mitigated in the spot.
Market still has a Browns, as that top 10
team. But a big difference with their in predict. Which is like the spread itself is for this week, it's a little bit off market. Yeah.
And a lot of that Browns changed, came from last week. Big five point jump even after losing versus the Chargers, which I think goes to demonstrate as well. I know Arj, you posted something earlier around how the Browns played very well and easily could have just won that game.
I think the one question I have about this game, and I mean I haven't bet this yet cuz I was waiting for the hook to go away, but this is basically the battle of the top two rushing offenses in the nfl.
like we know the Browns are gonna get theirs. The Patriots rushing defense is it's not as bad as it looks, held the lines to a pretty. To a pretty bad rushing game. And a lot of their bad rushing EPA comes from the Baltimore game where Lamar Jackson ran for a hundred yards.
But how worried are we about this Brown's defense? Like they are an absolute funnel up the middle. Like Austin LER ran for a hundred something yards and he was really bad the first couple games of the year.
Do you think that the Browns load the box and Dare Bailey's happy to beat him, right?
You can't do that against Chargers.
Yeah, no that's such a good point. And the Browns from an analytics perspective are one of the smartest teams in the league. So I'm sure they've already have a bunch of stuff about what they should be doing optimally against a quarterback like Zappy.
But I don't see the Patriots winning this game. Unless Jacobi Burett just gets absolutely figured out by Bill Bechuck, I feel like the Brown's off too much of an advantage on the ground and on the air, on the defensive side of the ball to where they shouldn't lose this game.
Yeah. Which Beche does have that familiarity with Burette. Yeah. Having been played for a couple years with the Patriots.
And if the Browns lean into a strategy, like you mentioned Judah force, happy to beat them. I haven't seen anything from him to suggest that he's even bad.
That's itself revealing though.
Like when he's had when he had to pass the ball so far in both games, like he's hit the 25 yarder or the 30 yarder. It's not even like they've all been dump offs.
Same thing as what Bell Tech has usually done with his junk quarterbacks is he doesn't put them in really bad positions and also doesn't force them to make throws and compromising spots.
He's attempted 36 passes through two games. How sustainable is that?
Aren't the Browns pretty good and unscripted plays or No?
They're like league average before the Chargers game on your graph, Judah, they're probably gonna move up after scoring two touchdowns on their opening two drives against the Chargers. But yeah, I I think it's just gonna be a run heavy fest, right?
I feel like the pace is gonna be pretty slow in this game. Yeah. A lot of
runs and for that reason I wouldn't like the over. That's why I would think more so under, on the 43 and a half, just because both these teams are gonna be soaking up clock unless you think that they're gonna be giving up like big runs.
Yeah.
Yeah. But that's the Patriot's defense is is always so like technical, like they won't they won't mis tackles like the Chargers do. Like they want a lot of these explosive runs like the Chargers do or other teams against the Browns do.
Archie, just answer your question, they're fourth now. That's great. On script address. Huge show. They're fourth.
Yeah. Oh wow. Okay. Yeah, this might be a first quarter play, Juah and a game play
One thing that I don't really see a lot of people just post things like, here's this in this state and time.
So as of week four, as of week five, without any context around how these things are changing over time. Cause what you just pointed out, Audrey, like there's a massive jump from the Browns in one week that might actually distort the broader kind of season to date really take away.
So can you lean into that bet? Because they just had a huge outlier performances that was distorted the statistic. When you wanna see a little bit more of the broader context. That's why I wish I saw more trajectory over time. Like a time series of how things are changing.
Yeah. To give you a little bit better sense of like noise and signal.
You can say the exact opposite there, which is for mean represents the range of outcomes, right? And the fourteen's not a fluke in the same way that the previous couple of weeks and then being 15th maybe that's a fluke part and all of it together as an average is representative.
I think there's good reason to suggest like the browns could be a top five team.
Yeah. I need an average with a standard deviation. Yeah, exactly. I
I was gonna say you just need the standard deviation.
Yeah. Alright.
Jags at Colts. Are we all on Jags?
Is this a two-sided handicap? It's buying the Jags and selling the Colts?
Yeah. Do we look at the injury report today? That thing was massive. A lot of key pieces did not practice period.
The Jags strength is on their defenses, their defensive line. Matt Ryan is inviting pressure, The offensive line's a disaster anyway. By our drive quality. They're 32nd best on offense. They're absolutely dreadful.
I don't, I like said it at the open. I don't understand how they're being powering from the 20th. I don't understand how they're ranked to be the favorite. And see, I just, I
don't get it.
They're the favorites right now to win the division.
Yeah. They're
winter. What's the Jags right now to win the Division 2 25. Okay. So it's still off it's lows. Cause I know it was still in the three hundreds even after like week one, week two.
This is an outline spot for me for sure.
Oh, yeahs in this game are so far in my view. Absolutely. Absolutely. I already bet five and a half plus 200. I'm levering up there.
All Panthers at Rams plus 10 with PJ Walker. New coach Steve Wilkes, former Cardinals coach. Rams have booked. Ugly Panthers have obviously looked ugly, so much so that they fired their coach in week five.
Seems like a big number for a Rams team that sneakily has one of the worst offenses.
I don't think you can take either side here.
When it looks like the broader public too, is betting the Panthers. And I never feel comfortable when the public feels comfortable betting the underdog. Yeah. And thinking that they're being very clever doing so. I wanna say it's a bottom to buy on the Rams, but again, at a double digit spread that's no bottom.
So this is 10 with a 41 total.
That's crazy.
PJ Walker, as I talked about last time, he's not somebody you can trot out there week in and week out, but in standalone spots he has performed, he's covered numbers. I think they were like plus nine last year versus the cardinal.
And they end up beating by three touchdowns, cover that spread by 30 points.
And the Panthers have a, certainly a sufficient defense versus a weak offense to hang around that number. If PJ Walker is not gonna throw two pick sixes.
Okay. Cardinals at Seattle. Cardinals. Mines two and a half.
You
like the Cardinals? Be 'em 101. Win the Super Bowl. If they're gonna win the division, they're going to win in this spot. I'd rather capture the upside here.
Cardinal's seem like legitimately like a team that is getting incrementally better week by week, not so much so to raise anybody's eyebrows. And so can potentially be pretty sneaky here. And if Seattle has the worst defense, I think this could be one of those games where you finally see the Cardinal score like 30 points.
I wouldn't bet this at two and a half. The Cardinals, I would just get this live cuz I think the sea is gonna go up early. Right now, Sea A are second in offensive EPA in the first half of games. Cardinals are 30th. Pretty much the same play I had on Eagles minus three first half. But now we're getting the C at plus 0.05 or just straight up pick him. And that's not a bad bet. The sea's gonna be at home.
Gino's coming off one of his better games. I'm pretty sure the seas are mostly healthy on offense. Kenneth Walker looked pretty solid last week, so I'll probably lock this in at some point. I just wanna see how far the line moves. But Seahawk's first half and then throw profits, if any, on, on Cardinals full game.
So
Seahawk's, first half Cardinals game plus six 50.
I don't mind that, but I guess the question is do the Cardinals win this game outright? If they don't win the first half, right? I'm not as bought into the Cardinals. I think the only play I would have is a CX first half in this game.
Yeah, still
tough to play in Seattle. I wish this was, pick em. That'd definitely be more attractive. But even at the two, I still like Cardinals. I think the Cardinals are still in a different tier.
Bills at kc. This hit three. I bet it already at three looks like it came down, backed down to two and a half.
The bills have obviously romance to everyone because they look so dominant in a lot of the games that they win. and the Chiefs, outside of that Cardinals game, flirt with disaster
I still like the chiefs at home, especially at the three. I think we've already seen bill's cracks. Again, the bills, when they look good, they just look so good that everyone is hearts in their eyes, forgets about all the bad, and we've already seen them struggle, put in questionable performances first both the Dolphins and the Ravens, both on the road.
This is a huge game with respect to potentially number one seat and home feel advantage in the playoffs.
I like chiefs.
I see this as a coin flip, right? Two lead teams.
You take the underdog. If you look at like our drive quality stuff right now, basically the bills are on their own tier. They're like the only team in the top right? Doesn't really matter against the chiefs. The chiefs can put up 40.
I'm with you guys. I think you have to take the chiefs. I've already bet this at two and a half. I bet it before you got to three, I didn't think it would hit three. I think the chief's defense is not that bad.
I think they did look really bad against the Raiders, but the Raiders actually have a running game that the chiefs had to respect. Like Chiefs respected Devante Adams and I'd hurt them with Josh Jacobs tearing them up in the run game. But there's no one on the bills that's gonna do that.
So like you can respect Stefan Diggs and Gabriel Davis without worrying about Devon Single Terry running for a hundred yards in this game. But the thing with the Bills defense is they are a primarily zone team. They run a lot of cover two, four, and six. And, I might be completely wrong on this, I think this year the way to beat the Chiefs is if you have a good secondary, you have to play man on them because they don't have people that can separate.
And I think when teams play zone against the Chiefs, Mahomes is in now year five as a starter. He's been in the league for six years. He knows how to read defenses. He knows how to pick up our zone like good quarterbacks can. In the past it was Rush four, Drop seven and he plays zone behind you because you can't play man on Tyreek, but I think you can't play zone on the Chiefs this year cuz they're gonna pick you apart with all their pre-AP motion and all the underneath stuff that they've been doing.
So because the bills run a lot of zone and because I've seen Mahomes pick apart zone in general this year. I do the Chiefs and I know that it's such a small sample size early on, but like the Chargers had the only good defensive performance I've seen against the Chiefs and they played 41% cover one in week two.
That's my angle on this game. I don't know if it's right or wrong. I don't know if the bills are gonna do some weird stuff, but I don't see the bill secondary, especially without your Davis White and potentially Jordan Poer having any successes slowing down the chiefs.
I like that a lot.
I think it also just goes to show with matchups matter a lot less when you're patching homes on the other side. Yeah, like how's the take with the Tampa game? I think you say the same thing about the bills, which is why it's if you're gonna price in some sort of match up angle, I'll fade that.
A lot of us thought at the beginning of the season when the bills demolished the Rams, they're like right off the bat like, Damn, this team is good. Look how impressive they are. Whereas, a couple weeks later now that's certainly lost some of its luster.
Yeah. And they demol the Titans and they demol the Steelers. All right. They're like whooping the asses of some bad teams, which a good team should. That's what a top three, top two team should. But the chiefs have played a decent Cardinals team played the Chargers, played the box.
And I think everyone's very well aware that the Raiders are certainly much better than their one in four record implies. So basically just to say is I feel like the chiefs have certainly been tested more then the bills and the bill's, toughest games versus Dolphins and Ravens. One, they're down by double digits and lost the other and both were on the road and now they're gonna go on a road in a very hostile case at that's a Casey thing, dunk at plus three.
I think to your point, ju I like if it was pick 'em, then it's how can you really have a very strong conviction in either way? These are just two great teams. Yeah. But at plus three at home and already having, I feel like been tested more and the market's a little bit too hot on the bills.
Think about this Mahomes plus three at home. How?
The only other thing I just before we move on live at this game, tons of volatility, lots of points. You'll be able to grab both sides. Live back this game.
Yeah.
Cowboys at Eagles. Cowboys now out to six and a half.
Cooper Rush, I think he's also undefeated. ATS
Eagles very clunky in the second half of games, but mostly because they can afford to do cause they start off hot. But I Eagles are starting to deal with some of their own injuries piling up. A lot of points. Division game. I think the biggest thing, what Cooper Rush is doing is just not putting them in really bad positions. He's not losing them any games.
But do you think that's a product of the game strips he's been in?
Where the defense has been able to overwhelm the opposing offenses and that's a allowed Cooper rush to flourish. that leads me right to say I actually like the eagle. All tier, which is, I really don't trust Cooper Rush when he is put in a bad spot. And I can see the Eagles jumping out to a lead here, and then it's okay, we've got Cooper Rush trying to come back and the market's pricing in a Cooper Rush that's five and oh against the spread and it's played in only a particular type of game script.
I like that. I think the thing with the Cowboys is everyone's so hyped up on their defensive line, which obviously they should be. Jaylen Hertz is a pretty mobile quarterback that does a very good job of not letting pressures turn into s She shows up above average on Kevin Cole's like survival analysis and like how many SS of QB prevents versus their offensive line.
I don't think, Jordan, my lattes played in the past like two games maybe Dan can correct me there, but No Myla, so they're probably playing like Andre Dillard or something. I do get worried about my co pars, but he's also hurt with his growing injury.
So I agree with Judah. I think if you really trust this Eagle's defense, which I think you should and don't trust Cooper Rush, which I don't think you should either, then the alt outline is the better play here. But I don't think you can this at six and a half, like that is a lot of points for a team that kind of lets their foot off the pedal in the second half of games.
Anecdotally also hearing a bunch of different podcasts go from And whenever you do a little power ranking to like eagles in their own tier to now, like I was hearing questionable whether the eagles are cowboys are gonna win the NFC East.
That was a conversation.
Yeah. That's inappropriate, But
but like insofar as that as any signal it certainly seems like the theme from the broader consensus is
slow down with Eagles.
Yeah.
Now's the time to buy the Eagles.
That's how I see it. Everyone's coming down. It's just in this spot.
Last game on the Slate, Monday Night Football, Broncos at the Chargers, Broncos plus five. I know on the Sunday night Tilt, this one took out to us, it opened that six and a. And Bronco certainly looked at least superficially attractive at that number, and I saw it come all the way down to four and a half, and even this is plus five reduced juice.
So certainly could potentially still be moving in that direction.
60 40 split leaning chargers, 75% of the bets on chargers at draftings.
In any case still I would like Chargers here.
Apparently Russell Wilson is banged up, or at least, maybe that's the excuse where I suck so bad,
but Brocks are dealing with a whole bunch of injuries as well. And they wanna lean on their running game and obviously no Williams now and Melvin Gordon is no longer a lead back and they probably don't want him to be cuz he fumbles so much
I think Darby went out, he's out for the season. Their secondary is just getting
trashed. Yeah, they're probably gonna get Justin Simmons back. I remember seeing something like two weeks ago saying he was gonna come back for this game.
That would definitely be a huge boost for them. But I hate betting charger games.
But yeah, six and a half was too much. I would've bet that a six and a half if I wasn't the Chargers fan. And I even liked it on the forecast. But I think with this game, like the angle is like Brandon Silly has completely neutralized Russell Wilson in the three matchups. He was defensive coordinator with the Rams and now Russell.
Oh yeah, heard you talk about that. That's point.
And now Russell doesn't have his left tackle. And one of the things, I give a lot of credit to Brandons for is he does a very good job of scheming one-on-ones. Like his bliss packages are one of the best in the league.
And the bro's offensive line looked pretty shoddy last week. So I do think K Matt could be in for a good game even if he might face a lot of double teams and like the Charters interior Pass Rush has been pretty good this year. And I think JC Jackson's been playing like ass, he, he could be due for a Bounceback game against I hope they match him up on Courtland sudden because he's struggled against good route runners like Jerry Judy.
So if the Chargers do the right thing and put JC on Courtland Su and Assante Samuel on Jerry Judy, I think they could have some success. But the the Broncos have more weak links on defense than the Chargers. And I think the Chargers have the capability within Elite Quarterback to take advantage of that.
But at four and a half I would take the charters at five.
I'd probably take the Chargers at six and a half. It's probably more value on the Broncos.
You made a great point on your podcast earlier this week when you're talking about how, Russell Wilson had that red hot season through the first nine, 10 weeks. Everyone talked about how it could potentially be an mvp. I think that was, the birth of the Let Russ Cook era.
And then it dramatically cooled over the back. Six games or so. Yeah. Which lined up playing Staley's defense three times. So it was like a huge catalyst for the change in that narrative. I think my only hesitancy here would be is I just don't trust them to win my margin. And five is might be too much margin. I mean they flirted with not covering fibers the Texans I know.
Yeah. The to Judah's articles. I don't know if you'd ever, you can ever write up Chargers, alt lines until they can prove they can win again. Yeah. Oh,
actually, and Judah, I don't think you've ever even pitched that this have you? No. See this actually that's a great point we're trying to evaluate how the pricing of alt lines is yes, Chargers like minus 14 and a half versus a comparable opponent versus Raven versus a comparable opponent.
Those minus 14 and a half should not be priced the same, are they? Yeah. And then if there is different distinctions in those pricings that if that gives you other hints as well around just imbalances in market action or whatever.
All right. Thanks again for coming on our team. That was awesome. Some great insights. Definitely one of our best market outlooks season to date. Definitely hope, you can carve out some time and join us again this season. And, for anyone who doesn't know, taking the Points podcast with Arju and TAs, awesome podcast.
Definitely check it out. Thanks everyone for listening and that's the closing bell.
