Episode Transcript
Welcome Kings to the NFL week 2 Sunday Night Tilt, where we offer our fresh emotional takes on what just happened in NFL week 2, recap some of our betting performance, some of our live betting results, and give our preliminary views on the early betting lines for NFL week 3. So let's hit the opening bell.
Alright, Judah, we're out a survivor
Cooper Rush.
Bengals, take us down.
It's tough. And they really weren't competitive. The spread never flirted. No with covering no even the drive that they put together ended up tying the game, took eight minutes. Showing no urgency. We knew that the offensive line was new. Ostensibly an upgrade, but could take time to come around and that's, really hampering the Bengals.
We were able to avoid it, in week one. And in fact, capitalized on a lot of Bengals betting them live last week. And I was able to capitalize on betting them a little bit, of just hedging my emotions live this week, got some plus three and plus six. Just to hedge against losing the survivor.
There was such a nice golden opportunity because so many people have been wiped off the map. Yeah. So fast and that, we had the skillset to be able to be really competitive.
And Bengal steal it from us. I stole it from me and Zach last year it was Mike White this year. It's Cooper rush.
Despite the Les playing horribly, when they tied the game up, I was like, all right, they're gonna come back and win.
But also it's frustrating is that strategically, I was thinking like, did it make the right process? Did I not? Did we approach this the right way?
But I regret not taking I think the bills are going to absolutely steamroll. He tightens, and it's almost there's a little bit of game theory, a little bit of contest selection because of the holidays.
And we want someone for Christmas and Thanksgiving, but when so much of the field goes down so early, I wonder if it's just worth it to just take the team you think is gonna win most and worry about, week 14 and week 14 comes up.
Yeah. And yes, ARJ it's way too early. Cause I already see this happening on Twitter today. Everyone's out in force dunking on the Bengals. It's too earth.
The reason we didn't actually bet thengs was the Zach Taylor case. And just like a lack of offensive creativity. And even like you were saying like a lack of urgency. That shows and I think if the Bengals had more drives, they're still gonna they're going to beat the Cowboys.
Maybe they would've I'm honestly not sure because, the defense was showing cracks as well.
When the Cowboys needed to move the ball. And in fact on that last drive, just shredded them moved right down the field.
The Bengals they're going to still live and die by the explosive place. And I'm not ready to give up on that just yet. Look, we know Joe bro is responsible for most of the sax and I think you make a good point about the chemistry, not to mention that Joe bur missed most of camp and like he needs to develop chemistry with the offensive line, not to mention just like the offensive line amongst themselves.
I think it's too early. There's no reason to buy them right now. But even still I'm certainly not ready to give up.
One of the things that we talked about though in the off season previews is. not to pivot too quickly from your off season baseline, fundamental priors, but in the face of contradictory evidence, you still need to be open-minded.
The thing that is hurting the Bengals right now are not the things I'm not surprised by those things. In fact, those were the types of things that we talked about that could hurt them.
And even though the office line's been upgrade, I the office line is not playing well. Yeah. It's in his face right away. Yeah. And then the times that it's not, then yeah, burrow is creating a bad predicament for himself, but in any case, It's over, it's done it's in the past.
We're out of survivor, unfortunately, but you made some really great calls this week.
I had by no means a strong a week as I did last week, but I'm gonna come out unscathed due to that amazing Cardinals come back.
Tyler Murray, come back. I think that's the fair
way of putting it. But one of the things that we talked about in the week two preview was, oh I like money line here. But we can't do that in circa.
So we avoided it. The thing is that same thinking can still apply. In fact, maybe that is why you would wanna take the five and a half. Maybe we think the five and a half the points aren't even gonna come into it. Yeah. But it's still gonna be a high leverage play.
The thought that kind of got me off it, which ended up being true.
I said, this game's going to ends up with the team who has the ball last. Yeah. Which does not lend itself to betting a. But there are multiple things happening when we're looking at a line, which is not only the actual points in a game, but also like a representation of the fundamental value.
And to me that was most off. I thought that game should have been more like a pick yeah. In terms of like fundamental value. And that when there's such a differentiation in the spread price versus what you think fundamental value is like that itself should be a signal to buy.
Yeah. And we even talked about how if you listen to the jets Browns, I sound like this six and a half makes no sense. Granted that should never have even the brown should have won that game by 13 or whatever.
It should have been six and they should have covered the six. Yeah. They should have covered the
like notably covered the six, they justifiably covered the spread.
That's another actually disappointing fact that we didn't bet the jets in circa as well, because anytime you're even mildly comfortable betting the jets, you should do it. Yeah. Cause there's gonna be very few opportunities.
But, I feel like there was just a lot of really good opportunities to have leaned into a lot of those really off market matchups. Yeah. And we would be sitting real pretty. That's true.
We loved Jas, but Jack is the number one pick. So it's not only like it was like that
clever.
Yeah . Even for my own kind of thinking and development of I know my best skill is like hitting on tail outcomes. And C's a totally different ballgame and it's like really a different frame of mindset. Just looking at spreads and knowing that like you have to pick five specifically, you like have to enter its own mode.
Like circa has to have its own mode of thinking. And that it's like separate from betting spreads and separate from, betting alternate lines. Like it requires its own unique thought process. Which I'm glad I'm recognizing in week two. Yeah.
We went four and one last week we're sitting two and two are in position to go three and two. That's not a bad position. Yeah. To be in. The thing is again, a lot of our pre-game handicaps were not as down the middle as last week, but still within range.
Yeah. Like we could have went four and one five and oh, and as, and went off market picks. Yeah. And in fact, we didn't have, the Moxi to do and instead, we kinda doubled down on Bengals. One of the things that I was looking at.
So in our market positioning segment in our newsletter, I was looking into the cash positioning, looking at some of the different sports books, they come out with their handle and an approximate amount of like total handle that the book has taken on and across books, Bengals Cowboys was one of the most, highly bet games of the week, along with saints bucks.
But saints bucks was like split. Yeah. It was a very high profile game. People had a lot of views on it, but it was split. Whereas Bengals Cowboys was also attracting a lot of money and it was all on Bengals.
There was just like so much signal to just say, it's not that oh, we gotta fade this. Oh, there's like reverse line movement or anything like that. It's just, what the narrative is for this game. It's well documented. And the line is priced at all in, and then some. And I think we just wanna continue to be cognizant of that and say, especially if we're going into a really public play that we know is a public play is all right. Here's the narrative. We know that's the narrative. Is the market not appreciating that public narrative as much as they even should.
No, I think that's true.
That should be itself a warning sign.
NFL week three. So Thursday we got Steelers Browns Steelers, plus three and a half totals at 40 and a half.
Jacobi Burett looked much better. Brown put points on the board this week. Turned out to be one of the highest scoring games of the week. And pit didn't seem to be any better than we thought they were.
I don't know how you can back the Steelers, but the Browns just lost to the jets. Not the loss isn't what's so killer it's that? I love the jets hang around. Joe Flaco was totally average against what I thought would be a really good brown defense. I don't see why you'd bet this game, you've got totally mixed mixed signals coming from each team. That's a pass.
If anything, I'll probably live bet this one. And if it turns out to be a super ugly game, maybe just ignore it and work on something else, more meaningful.
Cause it certainly isn't gonna be chargers chiefs with Trabis Versace.
So going into Sunday, we got chiefs Colts currently at six. I know we were talking about this earlier, what our junior had mentioned that was at like three, three and a half. Yeah. Early on. And now it's moved up.
Off a really ugly performance by the COLS. Again, the market Jas was number one pick in circa. So it's not can pat ourselves too much on the back there. But I don't think anyone really saw cults looking this bad, even though they were missing a lot of pieces. So this one's gonna be in Indy. Casey with 10 days rest.
It almost seems too good to be true.
I could see this line keep moving up. This is gonna be one of those where if it doesn't that, maybe you wanna be a little bit suspicious of it.
Yeah. That's on a little suspicious the line now.
The other thing is too is, you got no Pitman, then obviously Leonard being out. I That's huge. Yeah. That's one of the things that we talked about why you wanted to lean
away from absolutely.
But first off, there's no guarantee that those guys are coming back.
The chiefs are in a fundamentally different class than the Colts. Take a step.
You find a way to, despite injuries to beat the Jaguars and the Texans. If you're in the same ballpark, as the chiefs. This spread should be nine and a half in my opinion. Yeah. Especially when you add in the history with Gus Bradley and Patrick Mahome.
Patrick hols, like has career games every time he plays GU Bradley's defense.
Texans bears in Chicago. Yeah. Currently three Texans played the Broncos tough, but I think it's more like, just seems like Broncos are just, very underwhelming. Yeah. In the Houston, Texas, hang around. They hang around. But there's really no firepower there.
This game is so ugly. If this comes down to one, I think I could bet the bear.
Neither of these teams can score. Just gimme a pun Fest.
Total's
at 38.
Has Justin Fields showed anything that makes you wanna back 'em has Davis mill showed anything that makes you wanna back 'em either these defenses shown you anything
I think the bears are gonna be one of those teams though. That gets incrementally better week by week.
Yep.
They have pieces and I like Matt refl. ask. And
Unlike the Texans. The bears are gonna be one of those teams that we talked about in the past that are gonna put themselves in positions for explosive plays. True.
Don't hate that. I just am not excited to bet this certainly not early in a week.
No. Certainly not at three as well. I want the market to really sell off on the bears.
This isn't selling off on the bears at this point. No.
Okay. Lions act. Minnesota still need to see Minnesota play tomorrow, currently seven and a half Detroit looked awesome today. We were trying to follow that game all week, trying to buy the dip. You bought the dip so deep that you actually got some of those to
cover.
I got lucky from the in-game perspective.
They were never competitive.
No, they weren't. And it almost worked out, which would've been crazy. Towards the end of the week, this was definitely my highest conviction play and I'll take the L there.
But so when you say that, I just think this is how, especially I feel like you're great at really finding some of these. Really juicy opportunities that have awesome plus odds, high volatility plays that you only need to hit a few of 'em and it's gonna, inflate your bankroll.
The thing on these one off games. I think we just, both of us need to continue to really scrutinize. Why is it that we actually like that game in that standalone position at that standalone line, not the old stuff and think about, is it the same narrative as why everyone else is buying into it?
I'm guilty of it on this commanders and lions one as well. It's almost, it was almost similar to Cowboys is what about the commanders? And the lions did our take, was it any different than any other dumb Schmo who was betting the commanders this week?
What really brought me onto the lions was the, I wanted to bet this game. I don't. Before the offensive line injuries. And I saw the entire interior of the Detroit offensive line going down and like Jared Goff, awful under pressure, good with a good offensive line.
And I'm like, okay. The only thing that's been keeping and propping Jared, go up this whole time is that he's had really good protection. And that's gonna go today.
I bet theta the 12 and a half. And I knew the winds variance like that was built in, but I just thought it's not gonna matter. Cause the lines are gonna get nothing going.
No. And the wet variance didn't really that wasn't why they didn't
cover.
No, of course not. They didn't cover cause still scored 27 points. No, they didn't cover cuz Detroit was moving the ball at will. Yeah. And that take meaning the go is golf is gonna suck. Cause the offensive line's gonna suck. It didn't come through fruition at all.
Totally wrong.
You wanna take cues from market movement, and it's not to say it in itself is a source of signal that should push you one way or another on a standalone basis. But like with the Bengals and the Cowboys, it was like this line, there's one narrative on this game and everyone's pounding it and the line's not moving really accordingly.
What I thought was I thought it was the lion's thing more than it was commanders and again, like I was all, I was off this game early in the week and then by the time Friday rolled around, I saw the injuries. I was like, okay, this is a like unique angle people aren't thinking about this.
I think what's becoming increasingly clear, at least to me, is that like in 2022 wide receiver play is huge. Yeah. You need guys who can get open quick.
And like the dolphins are winning cuz you know, jail and waddle Tyre killer getting open and almond Ross, Saint brown. He can be a legit number one receiver and I don't think his name doesn't, strike fear into opponents. Not yet. Exactly.
All right. Bengals at jets. The market was heavy on the Bengals. This is classic, but hurt Bengals. No, one's gonna wanna bet the Bengals here.
I wanna be surprised if this potentially of continues to maybe drip to four, three and a half. We liked the jets coming into this week. Defense was probably better than the market expected. I talked about how they had those weapons. One of the top wide receiving groups, maybe in the NFL, certainly one of the youngest and has a very high ceiling.
Gary Wilson was unbelievable.
Yeah. And that's why I even last week when he had two catches, he like flashed. Yeah. In New York and you like the Bengals, of course, I
like the Bengals here. Has anything changed that much, even when we were just recapping the Bengals to start the to start the stream.
Like they haven't gotten that explosive variance. Yes. These act Taylor question exists, like they're way better than the jets.
I was cautiously optimistic on the jets after last week's performance versus the Ravens. Cause I thought that Flaco didn't look nearly as bad.
I just, I see them bating back. The jets aren't good. They're not good. This is not,
I feel like I wanna caution you because I thought they played, I saw upside after the Ravens game.
And again, even if they lost this game, I, we were still coming away with it saying the jets played better than we thought even. And even though we had a little bit higher expectation.
It's hard because any case is gonna build on a lot of projection.
Cause the Bengals frankly have looked awful against two terrible teams, two terrible
defenses.
Yeah. The Cowboys can get pressure. I don't think they're gonna be awful. I think the Steeler's defense will be a train wreck,
but we don't think the jets is a train wreck either. No,
I hear the point.
Would anyone be shocked if it's 31 10 next week? No,
I'll have a B list online. it's going to happen.
Raiders minus one on the road at Tennessee, these are two teams that we don't like two teams that we have long term puts on. We've bet. All unders on both these teams, Raiders own and two Titan zone and one. On the verge of being owned too, hopefully.
I'm surprised. Actually, I think I lean Raiders here. I think they'll be able to score and I don't see Tennessee being able to produce any offense. Tennessee's awful. They're dreadful. At least the Raiders can hang around with the Cardinals and hang.
I They should probably should won that game. They can hang around with the chiefs, the chargers, like I think the Titans are disaster. I We'll see what how they look against the bills. But it seems like the Raiders are probably in like the 18 to 22 range and I have a good offense and like we'll lose games against teams that have a better offense or a defense that can slow them down.
I don't see the Titans as being
either of those teams.
And I think almost retrospectively, you can look at the giants game last week and see the teams that the giants were beating and hanging around with. That sounds like fairly dead winning against the Panthers. They both
sucked. Yeah. That's actually another one that we didn't touch on that you were smart enough to stay away from that game and.
I do this from time to time. It's there's just two crap teams. I'm like, I think this crap team is like way crappier than this other crap team and this crap team's gonna show up, which is why I, and it's like very hard to bet on any crap teams, especially when you're not getting like a hook or like some extra benefit of the doubt.
Yeah.
How many times do you hear me asking what's the positive case or what? And even I totally just ignored Steelers friends. I hate betting on these games cuz like bad teams find a way to just do shitty things and shoot themselves on the foot.
Alright. Bills on the road at the dolphins, the red hot dolphins coming back from three touchdowns to beat the Ravens. One of your most successful trades of the season so far in terms of the same game parlay.
Yeah. Yeah. It was, plus 2000 something.
It was plus like 2100. Yeah. You're not gonna beat that very
often.
Did you bet any, did you lean into dolphins live? Cause there was a lot going on slow is these early games were, yeah. It really weighed on me. So that's yeah.
Like you get a little bit antsy. Yeah. Like first quarter, you shouldn't even make any trades really. Yeah. But it's just like nothing was happening and then it all started happening in kind of the fourth quarter.
But then I was like already jaded .
Always happens that way. Oh, Rogers just. But they're covered. Yeah, it always happens that way. Where the fourth quarter things get crazy teams get extra conservative. The other side gets very aggressive. Where like the book is just pricing in basically are, is the team down 21 gonna score a touchdown it's 19 and a half. Yeah. To answer your question.
I did bet the dolphins. I got them at, I think plus 12 and a half or something. And I, if you watch the stream, I, that four times I'm like, what's, DA's money line. And I was very close to taking them plus 1800. And I was like, you know what? It hits that plus 1800. My same game parlay is probably hitting.
I was completely asleep at the wheel because I had the the alt Ravens minus seven and a half, plus 2 25 or whatever, and kind, not cashing that ticket, but just, all right. I feel comfortable is when I can push it to the side and focus on some of these other things.
That happened with Atlanta last week. I would like mentally cash the ticket of Atlanta plus two 30 money line. I can move on when I really should grab on the other side.
But to look back at this game though like I think I said this on the live stream that like, I don't think the dolphin, the dolphins are gonna be extremely match dependent and like the bills are, let's see if they stay healthy through tomorrow night's game, but this is not the matchup for the dolphins to
succeed.
Yeah. That's really important cuz that's basically saying like this type of performance does, they haven't come up with some new epiphany or it's not oh, it all just came together and this is the type of thing you're gonna see week in and week out now it's gonna be very dependent on who they're playing.
And I don't think the market's pressing that in, in the slightest and I don't think they're pressing that in, in the Ravens game, which is why I capitalized with the same game parlay. And that was my exact reasoning behind giving that bet. I like the bills at four and a half here are screaming by.
I wonder if you get a good performance from the bills six and half tomorrow, if this might move up. Yeah. Although that Miami performance was just so visceral. Yeah. That I feel like even if you get a good Bill's performance, there's gonna be dolphins backers out there that cause even in our pre-season preview, like we talked about that the there's like multiple ways that this whole kind of dolphin season could go and we allowed for this type of performance yeah.
To happen from time to time.
We even said I'll probably be successful early on and like it's, we'll see how defenses adapt to the RPO based scheme.
I definitely like bills here at four and a half. And if you get any sort of extra point value over the course of the week due to dolphin euphoria.
Yeah.
Another road favorite, we got three road favorites in a row here.
Eagles at Washington.
I honestly wanna hold off on the Eagles still tomorrow night.
Yeah, still a lot. There's a a lot to see what kind of follow through they have. But this is actually interesting. This kind of like cross matrix here of the Eagles play the lions, Washington play the lions and now the Eagles play Washington.
I don't love Washington here, but again, I'm a little bit emotional on tilt here.
The fact that Washington's a three point underdog here and it's not three and a half before then if football gives me a little more conviction.
When I was re-listening even if the Vikings end up losing is when I was re-listing to our preview pod, like you liked the Vikings so much and had just so much insight to share on that game and how, the types of things that you talk about, how, oh, Jordan Jefferson.
It's like getting schemed onto linebackers, like that doesn't happen by accident. See, that's the type of things that like, people aren't necessarily talking about. Yeah. When I'm talking about like, why we're betting certain games and we're reciting the same narrative that you can go on NBC sports or, whatever.
That's a red flag, a yellow flag at minute.
That's why I wish we would actually put in Vikings just because that would've been at least a more nuanced yeah.
Play. Yeah. It's
it's the same take as dolphins. Like no one, no, one's counting for the fact that dolphins are gonna be extremely match dependent this year. Yeah.
Saints at Panthers saints minus three. I really don't wanna jump. I wanna say I like the saints, but it seems super square.
I guess you wanna see some of the injuries is Kamar gonna play. Winston was already banged up. And that was one of the reasons why I was getting cold feet on that saints play come Sunday morning.
You think that the Mayfield's gonna get better week by week?
I've got nothing.
Ravens at the Patriots. I already bet Raven's minus three here. This's a joke. This is a joke.
I expect this to continue to trickle up. Raven's
offense was as good as it's ever looked. They didn't lose that game. Cause the offense. And what are the Patriots gonna do in any way that replicates what the dolphins just did?
Patriots have no
offense at all.
It's gotta be something more like Raven's jets. Like the way the Ravens jets game played out yeah. Was the Ravens don't really do anything and maybe they get two explosive plays that kind of change the output.
But here's the difference. They're gonna get a lot healthier from week three to week one.
I like to think Ronnie Stanley to be back chick do is probably coming back. We'll see how the injuries shake out, but at least preliminary, the Ravens seem like they're could be a bit healthier.
And there was nothing that we saw at least here on Sunday night from the Patriot Steelers that would say, oh, the Patriots are better than we thought.
No. They eat out in there. Patriots are terrible. As soon got awful. Also, especially with that six o'clock
yeah. This line. And I was like, luckily we're sweating it out. Even at the end. Like, oh, it was lucky that the Patriots just drained the last six o'clock
yeah.
After it was taking forever.
Jas plus seven at the chargers. This is interesting, cuz this is two emerging betting contingencies who both really like these teams now budding heads. Chargers coming off 10 days.
What's the latest that you've read about. I was gonna
say it depends on Herber. Okay. So here's I rather gonna see on practice Wednesday, I also saw, Humira or someone else had the same injury as Herbert and they didn't play, which I think is it's different when it's a quarterback and like they're using extra caution, but it does go to show that this is not a gimme injury to play through.
Even when Herbert was playing extremely hurt at the end of that game. Like he was still throwing dimes. He made one of the best throws I've ever seen in my life. Yes. So I'm not worried about his whatever the doctors decide.
If he is in there, I'm gonna expect her to be at full strength and I'm gonna assume he is in there.
Also, the Jas again have shown life. but this is a different class, completely different class. And there are gonna be now on the road as well. But yeah, this is not a sinking Colts team with no weapons whatsoever.
Yeah. This team's jacked coming off Thursday night. Yeah. If this moves under seven, I'd like the chargers. Yeah. And I think this is a game that I feel like could reset expectations. Yeah. For the Jaguars love. Yeah. They're not quite there yet,
No, they're not quite there yet. What's really riding the Jas case is that I think like I think they should be favorites in this
division. Yeah. At this point in time. Absolutely. There's already a lot of love on the Ja to win the division prior to the season starting, but I think they've already shown enough maturity.
Yeah. To already show that there is enough sign here now I've actually seen it. And I'm willing to take a little bit of a discount. Yeah. For that. Yeah. Bear case on the Colts is playing out the bear case on the Titan so far as playing out and the bull case on the Jas is playing out and you're still getting it at plus three 50.
Yeah.
And the tail plus three 50 jacks have a huge win over the culture.
And this is on draft Kings. Yeah. That's super attractive. And
they still, I think should be, seven point hundred dogs against the tractors, which goes to show the class and what's driving. I think the Jaguar's love and being able to separate those two things.
Yeah.
Oh Packers box. This game's interesting.
Yeah.
Green bay definitely looks much better than last week and they should, since they're playing probably a bottom three team in the league. If the box are still super banged up, I don't know if Evan's gonna miss any games cuz it's like maybe gets suspended. I don't know. I don't think it was like that big of a deal. Yeah. But if no Jones and again, no Godwin still. Yeah, definitely. No Godwin.
I like Packers here at this point in time.
Absolutely. I also think Packer's a better team. Temp bay has shown nothing. In fact, they've shown that Brady can't necessarily overcome his circumstance just because he's Tom Brady. Like he's been, but the bucks defense does look good. Yeah. That's we'll see how that fares against Rogers.
They looked they've looked better today. I was looked terrible versus Minnesota. Yeah, that would be my worry. The market is so focused on how underwhelming the bucks offense. And not thinking about the defense cause the defense isn't sexy and now you see the backpackers come back, maybe beat the bears by two touchdowns on prime time cover.
I just I don't take any signal from the buck defense shutting down Winston and
An
incredibly hurt Cowboys team. I don't think the Cowboy's offense is good. The saints still move the ball fine. I also just it's a categorical different game. Like I don't think the defense matter, like the defensive match doesn't matter so much when you have Aaron Rogers on the other side, especially for a team that like as every week goes on, the chemistry is going to continue to improve. And like Rogers we know is a, like very reliant on chemistry, right? Like timing patterns are huge for and back shoulder throws are the back shoulder photo. Jordan Nelson was a staple. The bucks could defense could be great. I also think the Packers defense can be great and that might be even going overlooked.
It's certainly not enough to, gimme a plus one 40 on the money line. Like I think this game's closer to a pick or at least plays out more like a coin flip.
I could see this being under, I think this is high at 45 right now. Yeah. Rams at Arizona. Rams minus four and a half another road favor over under 51 and a half Arizona didn't look good for three and a half quarters.
If I want to bet Arizona this week, I wanna bet 50 to one toward the super bowl. But the second half of that game showed me was that Kyle or Murray could be the best quarterback of the NFC. He, single handedly could take over games. And especially when Hopkins and Rob Del Moore are back, like that could be an absolute dynamic offense.
Know the tail in Arizona is so fat and if they're getting there, they're gonna need to win this game.
The Rams let the Falcons right back into that game Baal and the Falcons were move in the ball, even when it was like, 31 to 10.
Yeah. Or whatever, like the Falcons were moving the ball. Yeah. The
defense side does not look like it's that good? I bet the Cardinals have been terrible. The defense looks awful. Yeah. And the offense was like entirely Tyler Murray and that's,
If you wanna buy the cards off
That's what I'm saying.
It's that's not a spot to buy the cards, which is why if I wanna buy the cards, I'm buying the super bowl. Cause I'm buying the long term view.
Yeah.
Falcons plus two at Seattle. I really like Falcons plus two here. Yeah. The one thing that makes me nervous about it again, this is like bad ish team versus bad team,
The win off the Broncos looks worse. Yeah. I've liked what I've seen from the Falcons and two games in a row. Now, even though they've lost
two.
Yep. Would you be surprising at all? If Seattle finishes as the worst defense in the league? No, no terrible. And like the Falcons can move the ball. Especially if they get Kyle Pittsburgh involved and I think this is a match up where he'll finally
shine.
Playing in
Seattle gives me like the slightest bit of pauses, but I think Atlanta those much, much better than Seattle and Seattle's offense can't do anything.
The Seattle lowest points scored so far. That is, was one of my favorite futures bets that you touted.
That, that was one that like really came together and crystallized when we were really talking about Seattle during the preseason preview. Yeah. And that looks right on pace.
I think the market still thinks that these teams are in similar tiers and I see your per
wish the sea looked a little bit better than they did today. Just so this could be like a field goal. I don't think it's not gonna get there. No, not gonna get there. No
Niners. At Denver Niners plus two and a half. Now with Jimmy G. I could see Jimmy G having some Ross, obviously not expecting to come to this game.
Maybe not expecting to come in for the whole season. I think almost the whole off season wasn't even think it was probably gonna be on the team. Yeah.
I'm shocked by this line. Shocked.
Denver's not looked good in back to back gains now.
Yeah. Yeah. Judy's hurt. That's huge too. Yeah.
But like Jimmy, G's definitely a in week three, if 20, 20 18, a better quarterback than trade
lances. Yes. Yes yes.
How is this? I don't understand this line. What's the key, what's the case, not even a tough
road trip or anything like that, either.
What case can you make for Broncos here?
Russell? Wilson's gonna look like Russell Wilson, which we haven't seen yet. That's hugely for almost a year now. Yeah. Against two
Awful defenses.
I really like the Niners. This is gonna go down to pick them. I wouldn't be surprised if Niners are minus one by kickoff.
Yeah.
Even more than that. I'm surprised
by this.
All right. Monday night football Cowboys at the giants Cowboys, plus three giants two and oh, but it's one of those games. I'll wanna reluctantly rewatch just to see if there's anything in there. But watching it from a distance as we were monitoring it over the course of the day just looked hideous.
Yeah. And they just happened to be the less shitty team versus the Panthers today. Now that they're another minus three.
Here's the play Mike Parsons over half a S or over half a whatever, whatever plus odds you can get. Look, like we've got a bunch of really great games on this slate. Bunch of really shitty ones. And this is one of them. Yeah.
Nothing can be as bad as this week, as far as like those early games, at least.
Yeah. At least they ended up compelling. They ended up compelling. Yeah. But it's it almost put me to sleep yeah. To where then I didn't pay attention enough to actually see these things develop, stay on top of it actually, and capitalize on it.
Yeah. The way probably should. Here's the other thing is
just a note. Twice today liked had okay, liens early on like before the game on the Cardinals and the dolphins and both of them, I was like really debating taking their money lines at the dolphins 1800 and Cardinals 2200. And both times
I was like, no, I've got enough exposure. Like, why do I need to
like, buy more here? And that's why you need to budget. enough. That's what happened in the Washington. One is I bid off a little bit too much, too early, and then my budget was filled on how much Washington exposure do I want.
Yeah. And then when the real juicy lines came up, I had my fill and didn't take them. Exactly. Especially if you see those types of scenarios potentially playing out, you wanna budget for it.
According that's the tail you need to hit.
Which like, if you still think that scenario who cares? Like you make sure you can budget that. I wasn't like running into a liquidity issue. I just invented. I was like, ah, I've got enough on this. I, it's almost like emotional where it's I'll be happy if it it happens anyway. And obviously that's totally irrelevant. My goal to make as much money as possible. I don't care about my happiness here. yeah.
In week one I kept leaning into some of those plays, like cults and saints, even though it felt bad.
And it's oh I guess I'm just gonna keep losing money on these games. yeah. And you saw the, sorrow in the early third quarter, but then those things all came to fruition because you had again and two, cause I didn't feel overexposed as well. Cause you don't wanna overexpose yourself.
No, you don't wanna lose 10% of your bank roll cuz some game spirals outta control. One of the things we didn't do today, we can pat ourselves on the back and even Dan. Was encouraging us not to do this, which is be too early to try to buy into COLS. In fact, I don't think I didn't buy any COLS I don't think you
I
I didn't even seriously entertain anything.
COLS yeah.
But that was one of the things we kept saying oh, it's plus four and a half. Oh, it's plus seven plus 13 and a half. And again, I remember even Dan was in the chance, like not still too early. And there was no buy signs. Yeah. And so it's not to say that again. You're just, oh, there's line value out there.
Oh, you're getting a touchdown plus or you're getting 10 points. So now buy it that you need to have a thesis in a rationale. But you had one in Arizona and you had one in Miami. That's the key? Just at the budget. That's the key. Yep. All right. Good stuff. That's the conclusion of the week, two Sunday night tilt have some real tilt.
In this episode, unlike last week when we were just tilted, cuz we didn't go five and oh, what was us sitting at two and two we're outta survivor. We have bills minus 10. Tomorrow. If bills look ugly and Titans went straight up, then like tilt is gonna go into overdrive
But if we can close out the week three and two, and then we're sitting at seven and three through two weeks, that's strong. That's 70%. You're on target.
Even despite an ugly circle week, especially if you include your Thursday night. I think both of us ended up with terrific weeks.
Yeah. Yeah. It's that week, once at such a high bar, too high bar, because we were four and one in circa, we cruised in survivor made like nine, 10 units on the live betting stream.
All the comebacks came to fruition. I was up like 20 plus units net overall on the week. And then tailed into that Thursday night game. And today for me again, I'm gonna come away essentially, maybe up one, maybe two units, but again, it's just that Bengals man. Just really it's in my stomach. Yeah. But we're still in circa and it's still very early and I think we're gonna be competitive all season long.
Hey, we don't have to be distracted by survivor anymore.
We don't have to be distracted by survivor it's one way.
Alrighty. Thanks everyone for listening. . Thanks Arjun for joining. Thanks Dan for joining. And we'll see you guys later this week when we dive a deeper into previewing week three.
